Best Thread Potential setups

[Claudia123]

Very true I suppose - Horses for courses - the good thing is that all the 5m TF losers are setting up the market for us 'swing-traders' to reap the rewards = So carry on guys :cheesy: LOL

So right - either trade the 1hr or 4 hr tf. the 5 min is a laugh you will lose i know i been there.

 

[Mr Squirrel]

A high probability area to sell Cable.

38 fib, retest of h&s breakout.

Above it is descending TL and 50%.

Hello TD & Faithful Disciples,

Just one more question if I may... Would the strong trendline (attached) not be enough to enter this pinbar trade alone? I understand we are looking for as many 'confluences' as possible such as 'fib retracements' and 'ar$e and elbow' patterns, but would anyone agree that the strong trendline (with PA) is enough evidence to support a downward move?

I'm not against fibs etc, but I am trying to get my trendlines 100% before moving on to anything else. I know this isn't a 'heads-up', so feel free to tell me to bugger off. Perhaps I should post this on the "Spanish in Disguise" thread instead?

Thank you, S

PS There are two parallel trendlines on the chart because I'm trying to gauge the "zone" rather than it being an exact science...

 

[rawrschach]

FOMC? Holy mother of overreactions??

edit: mr squirrel, what pinbar?

 

[santana55]

Hey all,

Just thought I'd pass along an update. Starting Monday, March 23rd the CME will be launching Forex E Micro Futures at 1/10 the size of a standard contract (the same as trading a micro contract with a Forex broker).

Check it out: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/f...-e-micros.html

Might need a little time to build volume but if they take off, no more shifty bucket shop worries.

 

[artful_dodger]

I take it we might have a setup in gold?

 

[neil]

Hey all,

Just thought I'd pass along an update. Starting Monday, March 23rd the CME will be launching Forex E Micro Futures at 1/10 the size of a standard contract (the same as trading a micro contract with a Forex broker).

Check it out: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/f...-e-micros.html

Might need a little time to build volume but if they take off, no more shifty bucket shop worries.

Thanks Santana - intersting development - maybe the CME is targeting customers of bucket shops

This LINK might work better:

CME Group - CME Group to Launch Forex E-Micro Contracts

 

[lewtz]

Is it best to read chart from left to right or (as TD said in a previous post I believe) from right to left?

There is no "right" way. There is what works for you and what does not.

When I say you should read the chart from left to right, what I'm trying to say is you're building context out of the market situation. When you're reading from left to right, you're looking at things such as is the market trending or ranging? What are the key levels I should be looking for? Is price showing strength or weakness?

We draw stuff like trend lines, fibs and most s/r levels based off the previous actions of price. TLs, fibs and most s/r will be drawn based on the price you see to the left, trying to create high probabilities of what will occur to the far right(future price).

When TD says he reads the chart from right to left, I understand 100% where he's coming from. What I hear from his statement is, "you want to keep your information as updated as possible."

The reason for this, like previously mentioned, is price uses zones more than a specific point in price. So price might decide that this key level you previous had marked as R is showing R a little earlier than it was before. It was previous R and when you're reading from the very left you see it as R, but as you get towards the right of the chart, the newer information, you're seeing that price is acting as R earlier than before. The next action for you is to decide whether or not you want to use this new potential level for R or stick with the old one or you could even adjust it where it makes both of them work as a zone together.

 

[grimweasel]

So glad that I deleted my buy stop at 910 that I had on gold just before I left work...2hrs later and who'd have guessed it?? Times like this it's so hard not to feel any anger with one's self! Grrr

Oh well, there will be another lifetime of trades ahead!

 

[grimweasel]

Huge 4hr Hammer on gbpchf chart. Right on the 50%fib from the daily swing low to high.
I have an order in long as I don't think the SNB have quite finished their weakening yet!!

 

[firewalker99]

Short Cable at 1.3996
Target: 1.3502

No, it's the classic "I'm a market full of gutless traders who are terrified to take a position ahead of FOMC so we'll turn the algos on and uptick all the highs and lows to screw everyone that trades breakouts on the 5m" pattern

With all respect t_d, the dollar showed its weakness compared to other markets last week and any pair coupled to the USD, whether it's EUR, GBP or YEN, should not have been shorted.

I realize I might be accused of hindsight for posting that after FOMC, but I changed my base currency in my IB account from USD back to EUR last week. Thàt is how confident I was the dollar was going to drop. But since you play most currency pairs, I don't think one bad call will hurt you

See chart: last week we failed to hold the breakout point and we broke the trendlines (only one drawn I'm starting to get lazy after that CAC40 work) already before that .

Anyway, now for some foresight: oil is still doing everything as expected, my first target was $48 (see previous series of posts) and I'm still aiming at $55 for the next.

 

[MrGecko]

the dollar showed its weakness compared to other markets last week and any pair coupled to the USD, whether it's EUR, GBP or YEN, should not have been shorted.

Look FW, much love and all, but you cannot reasonably tell me you expected this kind of move - you were on the right side of the position, sure, but I struggle to believe you were anticipating this kind of correction.

I would say that, if anything, the way to play the FOMC (other than being boring and sitting on your hands, which is what I do) would be to go in with 10yr shorts rather than longs - [without going into the boring details, the move is exaccerbated by a) spring b) Geithner and c) ECB - all IMO].

On the other hand, I do think it's important to highlight that two traders can have opposing positions at any one time and be equally skilled; the recent equity move is a pertinent example. I don't think traders should be afraid of taking something that works and making it their own, even if it results in contradictions - its the end of year PnL that matters, not the end of day (for the record, I was short equities but on a slightly different trade... still got stopped out - FW's long analysis was very good indeed, but I am not going to lose any sleep over it).

 

[firewalker99]

Look FW, much love and all, but you cannot reasonably tell me you expected this kind of move - you were on the right side of the position, sure, but I struggle to believe you were anticipating this kind of correction.

You're right, this is not yet the move I expected. We've only just begun

 

[graemenash]

I too was short GBPUSD, not on TD's recommendation but on my own system, from about 4 hours before the FOMC business... I had my stop at b/e but took a small loss (<0.5% of account) courtesy of slippage.

If nothing else the subsequent USD collapse is a lesson in risk management. Trade the signals but know when to get out. I imagine a lot of people lost a lot of money on that move.

 

[si1503]

I too was short GBPUSD, not on TD's recommendation but on my own system, from about 4 hours before the FOMC business... I had my stop at b/e but took a small loss (<0.5% of account) courtesy of slippage.

If nothing else the subsequent USD collapse is a lesson in risk management. Trade the signals but know when to get out. I imagine a lot of people lost a lot of money on that move.

Yeah. That and bunds and oil.

Risk management is key to survival in times like these.

 

[counter_violent]

Stops are in Emotions are out....as they say

 

[Crap Buddist]

I did hear from sunday/monday , mentioned it in FX thread, about bernanke letting slip economic upside /stability ahead for US economy, anyhow a couple of commentators, and they could of been speakin tosh for all I know, what with the fundamnetals and all that, but they say.

swift 13% dollar pullback....on any whiff of US economy improving as the flight to dollar safety trades will be unwound etc, so i thought well thats cable towards 1.60 then.... and that was that.. LOL

Now the one thing that may help longer term pin traders, looking to hold for longer periods , and deal with news releases etc which might have a direct impact on their pair, is to think of using the "Spanish Hedge" oooh mate....yes from The Oil hola :?::!:

Now it would enable folk to hold whatever position they had prior to the news release coming out . The cost will be an extra spread, no extra margin, there are some firms that enable you to be long short the same pair/ time, in same account as seperate trades etc..

Now often some folk, long and short same pair, are you mad? whats the point, I see no point, that means your flat etc.. Well, it enables the risk on the release to not be there for the longer term trader. Also you can then at ones leisure "drop a (or trade out an extreme) leg" or close both positions at once and lock in whatever the pre release profit (loss) position was.

Pro's
able to hold market position and wait for volatility to ease/exploit it
zero worry on any news release
ability to trade out and drop a leg post release when full technical assessment/ market normality returns .

cons.
extra spread.
the loss of sensation of your asshole chewin cloth as pairs tank / explode off the charts etc

So to engage or deploy a "Spanish Hedge" pre news release may be a suitable consideration for those who see merit in its use.

oooooooh mate..... ummmm.. :cheesy::!::?:

 

[portomar]

So to engage or deploy a "Spanish Hedge" pre news release may be a suitable consideration for those who see merit in its use.

thats not similar to a "brazillian wax" by any chance is it!?

 

[The ES]

Daily Pin off a 50% retrace.

Support line breakout for added confirmation.

Looks like a pullback

 

[ian_c]

How much slippage is reasonable?

... I had my stop at b/e but took a small loss (<0.5% of account) courtesy of slippage...

How much slippage exactly? - I was short AUD, had a 40 point stop, was stopped out at 110. 70 point slippage! Any suggestions as to what I can do about this?

 

[trader_dante]

With all respect t_d, the dollar showed its weakness compared to other markets last week and any pair coupled to the USD, whether it's EUR, GBP or YEN, should not have been shorted.

On the lower TFs it was a short and I made money off it...only 12 pips though...when I realised it wasn't going to go I came out.