Best Thread Potential setups

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artful_dodger said:
Hi guys

Anyone watching the hourly on gold? It is forming a tail on the long term channel bottom from last october's low.

Anyone got advice. I think patience to see if the following candle confirms the bull move back up?

Richard
Click to expand...

I wish I caught this post earlier, because now it's basically hindsight analysis, but it'll have to do.

If you read a couple pages back you'll see I mentioned that it's not about the bar itself, but location location location.

There will be many pin bars, and they are a great first step in building a system imo, but you want to take the best pin bars. Yes I've seen much discussed about the form of a pin bar. What does it look like? How long is the tail? The nose? Should it be showing bearish or bullish body? etc. Pin bars are pretty little bars, but when you find them in the right area they aren't just pretty anymore, they are sexy.

First, lets establish the levels gold is trading around right now.

Daily:

attachment.php


Start where the check mark is. We are working our way down from the 987 level to the 890 level. We've managed to work our way down there, but read the PA you see when we get closer to the 890 level. There's a first pull back from about 906 to the 945 area. Then we begin the next week with another leg down, this one manages to get a bit lower before there is another pullback where price just couldn't make it to the previous swing high. It got real close, but didn't manage to over take. Then we begin this week and it's looking like they might want attempt another leg down towards the 890 level.

Now, for the 1h:

attachment.php


We're moving steadily down until there is an acceleration, which eventually creates your pin bar. Remember how I just showed the daily which shows the next key level at 890? Look at how far below that is. Even when you're using the most recent swing low, the level should be in the 91-94 area and we're still very far away from that.

Now let's put this together:

This pin bar is against the current trend.
This pin bar is not at a key level
This pin bar is occurring in a move that looks like an attempt to test the key level again.
The pin bar has not even broken to the upside.

These are not the type of scenarios that create a high probable trade.
 

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trader_dante said:
Double up if this forms a 5m H&S and breaks the neckline...
Click to expand...

I'm out(67). Shorting 94 or 00. if it doesnt reach 13960 will have to do.

On another related note, where do you guys do your fib lines from.

The start of the move to the end, or the close of the candles?
 
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advfntrader said:
Cable resisting dropping. is that a Bull flag its forming on hourly ?
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No, it's the classic "I'm a market full of gutless traders who are terrified to take a position ahead of FOMC so we'll turn the algos on and uptick all the highs and lows to screw everyone that trades breakouts on the 5m" pattern
 
Trader_Dante said:
You can get a 90% win/loss ratio (with 3:1 average return on winners) with this strategy. If yours is not as high or not even close you are making one of the following mistakes:

Major mistakes people make.........


- They move stops to breakeven when they are up on a trade

- They take all profits at the first target rather than allowing the trade the chance to fully develop into a big winner
Click to expand...


therooster said:
Hi Tom

If you enter a trade and it makes it to your first pivot zone and then rejects this level do you

1) move your stop to BE at this point,
2) exit the trade immediately, or
3) leave the stop at it at it's original position?

Regards





Roy
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Hello all

I would be really grateful for some comments on TD’s post above and my response.

Trade management is an area that I am really struggling with.

My current approach is to move my stop to breakeven as soon as price hits my first marked up ppz.

On the first close after price moves through the ppz I move my stop to just behind the ppz and continue this process if/ as price moves through subsequent zones. It’s similar to TD’s exit strategy but not quite the same (I am currently back-testing the TD approach on my previous trades to see the difference).

I try to never scale OUT of a position as it doesn’t seem logical – my biggest winners would be on smaller positions and vice versa for losers.

In TD’s post above the suggestion is that I shouldn’t be moving to breakeven OR scaling out at the first ppz but I am confused about what to do.

If price hits my first marked ppz, then rejects it I currently move my stop to BE. My thoughts on this are:

1. Should I take some profit here? This is scaling out and seems illogical due to the reasons above

2. Should I leave my stop at its original position? Again, illogical – price has rejected the first zone so there is now a good chance of it coming back to my stop and therefore taking a loss?

3. Should I exit the trade immediately? This is giving the trade no chance to move further in my favour?

What do you guys do in this situation?

Regards





Roy
 
who the FK is on a five minute chart, get down william hill's and put a doozy on trap 3
 
omni said:
who the FK is on a five minute chart, get down william hill's and put a doozy on trap 3
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DOUBLE LOL!! :LOL:Cheers Omni, highlight of the day. Just posted a similar notion over on ' Spanish's' thread. Gambling, not trading imv!
 
omni said:
who the FK is on a five minute chart, get down william hill's and put a doozy on trap 3
Click to expand...

bender.

red = short, blue TP.

Don't SLATE WHAT YOU CAN'T DO YOURSELF. (admittedly stopped twice for tot - 12)

ps. last time i saw 3 dojis on a market was the dailies on ftse. that marked the top.
 

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KillPhil08 said:
bender.

red = short, blue TP.

Don't SLATE WHAT YOU CAN'T DO YOURSELF. (admittedly stopped twice for tot - 12)

ps. last time i saw 3 dojis on a market was the dailies on ftse. that marked the top.
Click to expand...

I posted some results when I was doing my journal, and some of my best days were scalping the 30 second chart! Also posted a 25 pips realtime call in wallstreets ftse thread today trading off a 5min chart. Different strokes for different folks....
 
candles said:
I posted some results when I was doing my journal, and some of my best days were scalping the 30 second chart! Also posted a 25 pips realtime call in wallstreets ftse thread today trading off a 5min chart. Different strokes for different folks....
Click to expand...

Very true I suppose - Horses for courses - the good thing is that all the 5m TF losers are setting up the market for us 'swing-traders' to reap the rewards = So carry on guys :cheesy: LOL
 
trader_dante said:
Short Cable at 1.3996

Reason: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/698166-post2.html

Target: 1.3502

Verdict: Wait for the levels ;)
Click to expand...

May I ask what your initial stop was for this? I've been busy today and missed this and the earlier pin on cable. Although, I think the stop for the earlier pin would have been large to stomach anyway. Just sitting back and waiting for another opportunity... I'm cool with it!
 
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