Best Thread Potential setups

[trader_dante]

With respect Goose mate, it was obvious.

Look what I discovered when I came under the guidance of another great trader.

Price broke a previous low on the 5m Dow chart but as it broke its lower bollinger band and hit the lower trend channel, it reversed sharply and formed a bullish outside candle showing strong buying which then drove it back above the previous low. At the same time as price was heading lower you can see that the momentum oscillator was slowly trending up so the divergence confirmed the trade. One could have called the bottom of the market with a very tight stop and once it you were in, it was equally obvious we were going to undo the whole down move and close up on the day.

To be honest, I feel like such a mug. I'm totally wrong.

I should have forgot the broader economic issues and the bear market. It's clear to me that one should have closed a macroeconomic trade confirmed on a daily timeframe because of this beautifully clear and painfully obvious setup to go long on a 5m timeframe.

I just wish I had been watching this timeframe.

I'm actually really annoyed now and devastated that I am not the trader I thought I was.

Sorry for my earlier arrogance.

 

[trader_dante]

dante i think you proclaiming your the best here will be your undoing....i worry you are loosing your respect for the markets

I really do worry that people take every post I make seriously.

I gotta take a break from this forum. It's pointless arguing a case. I make a lot of money doing what I do and the only time I lose is listening to other people that tell me that the market is going here or how I could have got out at the low or covered at the high etc etc.

I'll tell the greener traders a little story. The other day, I had a feeling that the Bund was due for a sharp rally. So I waited for the price to confirm and took a long position. As I was bullish, I should be a buyer. This seemed to be the proper and correct thing to do.

However, the market didn't initially go and began to come off and I came out of the trade for a small loss. I then tried a short but this didn't work either and again I took a small loss. At this point I became really aware that the big move was about to start. I often feel the test it before I can commit to it.

Anyway, it was at this point that the biggest trader I have ever known who has a very keen and close interest in my development told me he had a sizable short position and that the market is bearish.

For anyone that follows the Bunds you may know the outcome of this story.

In short, we're now 4 basis points higher.

During this parabolic rally, I've hit it short several times and using the technique I have learnt, managed to crack it right at the spot when it broke each time which was no simple feat when you look at the chart. I actually had to read the order flow to do this which is not something I usually like to do. At any rate, I noticed that after that initial break it would refuse to follow through and go lower which made me want to just get out.

However, the same huge trader advised me not to move my bids where I had previously been offering and therefore scratch but to move my stops to the high of each respective day and ride the position. Since then I've chipped away over a significant amount of money doing this.

This is not some clown talking. This is a huge trader that makes many millions.

So I'm really not up for FW or Paul71 trying to tell me how to trade or when to take profits. They may be incredible traders in their own right but one thing they are NOT. They are not me.

I trade my own way.

Just relax, be confident in what you know and do it. Be willing to learn new things if you feel you need too but don't change what you do if its working. Do more of it.

I'm out.

 

[firewalker99]

With respect Goose mate, it was obvious.

Look what I discovered when I came under the guidance of another great trader.

Price broke a previous low on the 5m Dow chart but as it broke its lower bollinger band and hit the lower trend channel, it reversed sharply and formed a bullish outside candle showing strong buying which then drove it back above the previous low. At the same time as price was heading lower you can see that the momentum oscillator was slowly trending up so the divergence confirmed the trade. One could have called the bottom of the market with a very tight stop and once it you were in, it was equally obvious we were going to undo the whole down move and close up on the day.

To be honest, I feel like such a mug. I'm totally wrong.

Just for the record: I neither watch the 5-min chart, nor use the Bollinger bands, let alone care about momentum oscillators. And I couldn't care less about macro-economic situations or broader economic issues with have little relevance to how the market is behaving on intraday basis.

And at no time, except in hindsight, it was 'obvious' that we were going to 'undo' the whole move. Please don't put words in my mouth.

If you or Goose still have no idea why we reversed around 7660, than I suggest you look at where S was, look at where R was, and see if there's a correlation between those numbers. Add that with the (pure) price action after breaking the supply-line, the volume on the push-up, the tick divergence (and divergence in the failure to make a lower low on the NQ), and the subsequent break of the preliminary support point from early in the day, and you got yourself a pretty high-probability entry to go long. Now if that is not confluence, then I don't know what is.

Btw: no one is telling you (or anyone) else how to approach or manage a trade. All I'm saying is that it's not common sense to let 180 points profit go back to almost 0, back to +220 and then turn into a loss...

 

[trader_dante]

If you or Goose still have no idea why we reversed around 7660, than I suggest you look at where S was, look at where R was, and see if there's a correlation between those numbers. Add that with the (pure) price action after breaking the supply-line, the volume on the push-up, the tick divergence (and divergence in the failure to make a lower low on the NQ), and the subsequent break of the preliminary support point from early in the day, and you got yourself a pretty high-probability entry to go long. Now if that is not confluence, then I don't know what is.

Yeah I love s/r it's great isn't it? Works on all time frames. I must remember to look at volume more and tick divergence too sounds good. Should really have looked at the NQ too. Must add that to my list of charts. These tight b*rstards should really give me another screen. OK, thanks for these pointers.

P.S. Any ideas where we are going today in the global indices or what levels would be key? In the YM if poss...

 

[firewalker99]

Yeah I love s/r it's great isn't it? Works on all time frames. I must remember to look at volume more and tick divergence too sounds good. Should really have looked at the NQ too. Must add that to my list of charts. These tight b*rstards should really give me another screen. OK, thanks for these pointers.

P.S. Any ideas where we are going today in the global indices or what levels would be key? In the YM if poss...

Goose asked me to explain my reasoning several times and so I did. The reason I didn't answer him immediately was because I expected reactions à la the above. But I stopped caring about that long time ago.

In fact, you're free to totally ignore that post, and may I suggest you do. It might confuse you and since you already had one instance where you let yourself get influenced by another trader, I think you best ignore what I'm saying. Since you're pretty good at ignoring what the market is saying, that shouldn't be much of a problem.

As for your 'PS', read my signature.

 

[trader_dante]

Since you're pretty good at ignoring what the market is saying, that shouldn't be much of a problem.

As for your 'PS', read my signature.

lol man, people say I am full of myself.

How am I ignoring the market?!

The only thing I ignore is that which I consider to mean nothing to my core position.

Really that's the end of the story.

I can't believe this whole argument developed because I gave back some profit. This forum cracks me up.

I've taken hundreds of points out of the YM this month and will take hundreds more next month and the month after...

 

[glyder]

I really do worry that people take every post I make seriously.

......the only time I lose is listening to other people that tell me that the market is going here or how I could have got out at the low or covered at the high etc etc.

....I'm really not up for FW or Paul71 trying to tell me how to trade or when to take profits. They may be incredible traders in their own right but one thing they are NOT. They are not me.

I trade my own way.

I'm out.

T_D,
I remember Alexander Elder says in one of his books, don't discuss open positions with other people, not down the pub and probably not on forums.. Other's opinions always distort the way we may have otherwise thought and acted off our own back, probably because it makes us begin to slip away from taking our own responsibility for the trade, or subtly alters our reasoning/perceptions in some way.

Potential set ups and theoretical situations (which maybe quite similar to open trades) are always ok for discussion.

From my and many other's point of view your posts are always appreciated. This trading business is a never ending learning curve for all of us.

 

[grimweasel]

That Cable 1hr pin had paid off nicely - 120 pips in the bag. Daily target met -packing up for the day!
Nice chance to get long on gold perhaps at this level - lets see if it bounces off? Or will that daily pin (sort of) show the way down?

 

[trader_dante]

We will make a new low in the Dow tomorrow I believe.

Looking for 7800 first and then 7710. Then the lows

Just been sent home by management for having a good day! lol

See you all next week, folks.

Play safe!!!

 

[trader_dante]

Just sold some more at 7903...ok that's it, honest...I'll check when I get home...

 

[grimweasel]

Oil seems to be winding up ready to explode from this triangle - just which way? If indicies start going higher it could move up?

 

[sandpiper]

Btw: no one is telling you (or anyone) else how to approach or manage a trade. All I'm saying is that it's not common sense to let 180 points profit go back to almost 0, back to +220 and then turn into a loss...

I believe that the exact point that DANTE is trying to make is that it isn't COMMON sense. And it's exactly this that ultimately makes it work for a some people. I'm no devotee, and it wouldn't be for me, but I can at least 'see' that.

 

[firewalker99]

I believe that the exact point that DANTE is trying to make is that it isn't COMMON sense. And it's exactly this that ultimately makes it work for a some people. I'm no devotee, and it wouldn't be for me, but I can at least 'see' that.

Suppose that would even make remotely sense. Averaging down certainly doesn't (see below).

Just sold some more at 7903...ok that's it, honest...I'll check when I get home...

Is this really you trader_dante? I honestly can't believe you didn't close out at BE and reversed when we tested S perfectly.

 

[Paul71]

Suppose that would even make remotely sense. Averaging down certainly doesn't (see below).



Is this really you trader_dante? I honestly can't believe you didn't close out at BE and reversed when we tested S perfectly.

I think the Nasdaq is going to lose the fight for 1240 mate, i'll be selling below.

 

[Joey25]

Lol!

Averaging down or "working a zone" is a sign of ineptitude, whereas "trailing to breakeven" and even worse, "scaling out" are acceptable.

 

[TheGoose]

I'm still struggling to grasp the rally and where to have gone long last night.
I do normally have an eye on the NASDAQ but didn't yesterday as I was at home and not really watching. I didn't see any clear S/R levels (other than 7800 on YM) yesterday as I thought it was in no man's land.
Dante's 5 min graph didn't mean much to me and last night I really thought the rally would lose its legs and the 7670 level FW mentioned didn't seem like much of a level to me either.
Right now I see little reason to trade the YM (7882) so I'm not!

 

[firewalker99]

I think the Nasdaq is going to lose the fight for 1240 mate, i'll be selling below.

Why wait for that? 1247 was R from 5 February

 

[Paul71]

Why wait for that? 1247 was R from 5 February

You are correct my friend! 1240 was just a BS BO trade, the point was 1240 had gone before the chart confirmed it, PA is old news. Besides, there are much better opportunities than today is offering, i'm sure Tom knows the score though.

 

[Paul71]

Why wait for that? 1247 was R from 5 February

Sorry FW, forgot to mention that i'm on your buy side untill the end of todays session, the market will end up above 1240.

 

[trader_dante]

I sold the Yen quite heavily last night. Does that count as "bullish equities"?

Closed 1/5 for 20 pips.

2/5 for 100 pips.

Remaining 2/5ths for 133 pips.

I'm now short fixed income and just going into profit on that...and now deciding what to do with the Dow...on the daily TF I have to say...it's the long setup I've been teaching since the dawn of time...pin bar...right eye (today) tests incredible support perfectly and bounces...

Let's see what happens.