i dont think anyone is talking about the bear market being over etc, im taking it for what it is, nearly 300 points in an hour. nothing more nothing less
Sure - I'm not suggesting that you are calling the end of the bear market by taking on a long position.
But lets think about the two trades - the long @ double bottom + news, and the "its a bear market" position; If you took the double bottom long, where would you put your stop? Below the low, because that is where you would know what you thought be true wasn't so - we co on about this all the time, about fixed vs. floating stops etc... My view is that you put your stop where you are definately wrong for cheapest.
The same can be said for the "it's a bear market" trade - it only makes sense to put your stop where you are wrong... in this case, @ the end of the bear market. How you might determine this is subjective - maybe off a weekly chart, maybe look for some signs of improvement hidden away in the Employment Situation report, whatever. The point is that it's crazy to get out of a position while you are still right / not yet proven wrong.
On the other hand, I do have sympathy for the "take the profits because they are there" argument too. I don't see why you couldn't adjust your "it's a bear market" trade accordingly, not by reversing, but by cutting your shorts by a little bit - a penny saved is a penny earned, if you like. As long as you kept your o'night possie the same, you could subsidise the macro position with a little management.
EDIT: I got my Bulls and by Bears confused... I little piece of trivia: It's known as a "Bull" market because Bulls attack from below, and push up (just stick your index fingers on your head and pretend, you'll get it) - similarly, a "Bear" market is a Bear because when it attacks it raises up onto its back legs and strikes from above, going down. Totally off topic but there you go.
