Positioning for the greek vote ?

[Boswell]

I'm not trading at the moment, but still watching and learning.

Have read all the usual Guardian/Telegraph reports with the pages of posts where some of them are better than the original report.

Which way will if go? My bet is they may fudge through some form of austerity programme but it doesn't make any difference as it is still free money which the Greeks can never pay back because they are bankrupt. All of it seems a bit surreal arguing over giving yet another bail out, which will be followed by another bail out next year. Bailouts forced on people who can not afford to pay for the sake of the banks giving the bailout not to go broke because of the contagion and the CDS which would follow a default. So they will force the Greeks to take the money because the banks and the EU want it.

Though how long the farce can continue I'm not sure, maybe when Frau Merkel get booted out as around 70% don't want to have their taxes spent bailing out lesser countries, but I feel in the next couple of years another banking crisis will happen, and is likely to start in the Euro zone.

Also I note that Lagarde has been made head honcho of the IMF, which I think stinks in itself. She does have political ambitions and I can see a conflict of interests there.

 

[Black Swan]

Here's a novel idea. How about we have a free market system and the thing will regulate itself?

Government interference has countless unintended consequences. This is why the whole shambles will eventually come crashing down. At this time the building is shaking and plaster is falling off here and there, but the worst is yet to come.

Pfftt!! Haven't your heard? Capitalism is dead, long live socialism for the rich!

 

[Black Swan]

This has been my stance for years concerning the USA, but applies to most countries with elections.

Peter

Aw come on Pete, you're far too bright to believe we actually live in a hopey changey democracy..kleptocracy has been the gig here since Thatcher's day, and the last time your USA was a special "land of the free/brave" place was the 50's..

 

[Black Swan]

someone from china came out the other day and said they were going to support the euro, which they have probably done for a while but are just coming public about it

- money lent which can't be repaid
- austerity measures shrinking economy

well what is that, greece, or the uk, it could be either really

China supporting the Euro, dumping the dollar..hmmm...not a batle the USA can fight. Normally the USA invades if you threaten the dollar.

 

[barjon]

China supporting the Euro, dumping the dollar..hmmm...not a batle the USA can fight. Normally the USA invades if you threaten the dollar.

shouldn't think the US will be too worried - all part of a cunning plan to inflate their debt out of existence

 

[Black Swan]

shouldn't think the US will be too worried - all part of a cunning plan to inflate their debt out of existence

Ya think? Well in the 70's it *worked* in the UK by raising wages, ergo inflation wiped out folks debt (over a relatively short period of time). Wages in real and inflation adjusted terms have hardly budged in the UK or the USA over the past decade. Do you think the mega wealthy want their supposed real wealth reduced by perhaps 50% for the good of wider society? Or minor league politicians watching their net value of 1-2ml vaporised? IMHO the USA fed/admin have lost control...

 

[barjon]

..............Do you think the mega wealthy want their supposed real wealth reduced by perhaps 50% for the good of wider society? ..........

oh the mega wealthy won't suffer - they'll still be mega wealthy within the $ boundaries and probably become mega, mega wealthy if they are in non-$ assets.

 

[safvan]

I want to buy a greek island. Greece is a beautiful country.

 

[Black Swan]

Back on thread I closed my swing long position early on the Euro yesterday, not re-entering, whatever happens I'll now sit on hands until a short set up develops (on 2-4HR TFs..)

 

[BeginnerJoe]

China supporting the Euro, dumping the dollar..hmmm...not a batle the USA can fight. Normally the USA invades if you threaten the dollar.

China can only be contained. Conventional war is not winnable against them as illustrated by their past involvements in Korea and Vietname. There is also suggestion that they are currently protecting Pakistan. So any immediate war with China will start in Pakistan. But I don't believe the US has the balls. In any case the Chinese are not yet dumping the dollar. They still have 1/3 of their money is $ debt.

 

[safvan]

Back on thread I closed my swing long position early on the Euro yesterday, not re-entering, whatever happens I'll now sit on hands until a short set up develops (on 2-4HR TFs..)

Yup on those time frames that is the only way about on this. For those time frames EUR is extended way too much.

A short should be coming soon. Good trading.

 

[safvan]

China can only be contained. Conventional war is not winnable against them as illustrated by their past involvements in Korea and Vietname. There is also suggestion that they are currently protecting Pakistan. So any immediate war with China will start in Pakistan. But I don't believe the US has the balls. In any case the Chinese are not yet dumping the dollar. They still have 1/3 of their money is $ debt.

No new war would be started anytime soon until some major event happens that really pushes the US administration to take such drastic steps.

Instead US is now trying to contain and lower down costs and focus on its debt problems. This is what it should and every other country should be doing at this time.

All the political b u l l s * i t aside, waging wars against the following countries in any manner is basically asking for WW3 which is basically end of the world.

China, India, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia and Japan.

Waging direct wars against the following countries would mean the end. They are top 10 countries in terms of population. If you f*ck with the people of these countries directly, you better be prepared for a lengthy and fiercely dangerous path to self destruction.

Talking about China and Pakistan. Do you know how many Chinese and Pakistanis live abroad? They are in millions and now integral part of the economies they have settled into.

You mess with them and you are not only asking for economic meltdown but death and destruction in the countries they have migrated and settled in to.

Just the UK for example, the number of Pakistanis alone can bring it down if everyone one them turned against the government and if UK goes down, how do you think it would stop the entire world from blowing up?

The world can probably come out of the mess in greece and a dozen others in the europe in the long run but cannot afford the same with China and Pakistan. A dent in the chinese economy makes a global impact now which can slow down the growth. A default of debts in Pakistan which is a muslim nuclear nation can start a war on a global scale if the chaos were to hit the streets after the infrastructure melts down. You know Pakistan came to defaulting once in 2008 but the large chunk was paid off by the US to avert a disaster which could have brought everything down in the long run.

China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Saudia Arabia, North Korea etc are like spoiled members of the family. No matter how bad they are, one cannot get rid of them. They are part of the global system and the rest just have to learn to live with it and keep pushing for reforms.

The world dynamics and the politics around people where cultural aspects need to be adhered to are a lot different in reality.

One cannot compare Iraq and Afghanistan with China and Pakistan. There are hell a lot of Chinese and Pakistanis living in western world compared to Iraqis and Afghanis.

If the west just invested more on the freedoms of the local people, the problem would have been resolved a long time ago. EMPOWER THE LOCALS and give them the strength. Only they can stand up against their governments and bring about a positive change.

The rule is simple. One needs to tackle difficult situations with the countries that have the highest populations in the world with tools other than weapons.

 

[Black Swan]

An empire is ending, only this time it's very different. Unfortunately we look back through history and the books and imagine that, for example, the Roman empire or the Soviet or the British empires ended in a blink of an eye with *dignity*, it takes decades for the changes and it's always very ugly and economics are always the key driver for the shock abandonment. The USA is already starting the NLP verbals for retreat and in Obama they've the perfect mouthpiece...

However, this time the USA will not give up their overall global dominance without a fight (particularly versus the Euro + Yuan) as it would mean impoverishment for their nation so suddenly that quite simply they wouldn't be able to cope; wages similar to China, gas prices similar to Europe? China hasn't even got out of first gear and is overtaking the USA in terms of some metrics re. gdp and consumption with a population approaching 2bl versus 350ml..if they really catch fire they'll (and the BRICS) eat through the remaining resources at an alarming rate, the USA cannot afford to let that happen given they consume 25% of the world's energy from a population level of 5% and are a huge net importer of energy...

 

[Black Swan]

Yup on those time frames that is the only way about on this. For those time frames EUR is extended way too much.

A short should be coming soon. Good trading.

well I'm happy (ish) exiting yesterday although unfortunately I'm now outside of my rules 'scope' to re-enter on a long, I had no signal to close the trade, but had one eye on today's *stuff* in Athens, so short it has to be, could be a short loss to then go long to continue the trend..such is trading eh..? 2 wins one loss for the week would do, I like a quiet life lately

 

[safvan]

well I'm happy (ish) exiting yesterday although unfortunately I'm now outside of my rules 'scope' to re-enter on a long, I had no signal to close the trade, but had one eye on today's *stuff* in Athens, so short it has to be, could be a short loss to then go long to continue the trend..such is trading eh..? 2 wins one loss for the week would do, I like a quiet life lately

Good thinking approach.

 

[bbmac]

For one of the ancient civilizations to only contribute Demis Roussos and Kebabs to the modern world and not expect payback was wholly unrealistic ! And retribution there will be..... Actually the only experience I have of modern day Greece was a package holiday some years ago...the tv packed up in the aparttment and they sent an engineer up - I say an engineer, it was some shifty looking youth in plimsoles that waggled the arial and wolfed the gypsy creams - but that's the Greeks for ya !

G/L

 

[Black Swan]

For one of the ancient civilizations to only contribute Demis Roussos and Kebabs to the modern world and not expect payback was wholly unrealistic ! And retribution there will be..... Actually the only experience I have of modern day greece was a package holiday some years ago...the tv packed up the apt and they sent an engineer up - I say an engineer, it wasd some shifty looking youth in plimsoles that waggled the arial and wolfed the gypsy creams - but that's the greeks for ya !

G/L

Been to the islands once a year past ten years, they were suffering 2 years back; inflation etc, plenty of folk referring to the recession as a depression back then

 

[bbmac]

Can they not sell their half of Cyprus to Turkey ? It's probably not theirs to sell - I can't remember now...

G/L

 

[Black Swan]

Can they not sell their half of Cyprus to Turkey ? It's probably not theirs to sell - I can't remember now...

G/L

Wasn't there a firesale of assets at claridges yesterday and no one bought. Airports, ports even the lottery remained unsold

 

[Black Swan]

Good thinking approach.

Who knows