Pin Bar System

[megamuel]

agree on this. the results of the EA can never replicate live results where discretion on price action and news is used.

I don't know - I saw a commercially available EA the other day that has the ability to disable trading when certain economic announcements/reports were released. Not sure how, I think the owners could disable all the EA's remotely. And as for price action, that can always be coded in....

Good work Mata, you are very speedy with these updates! I'm going to do some tests with 1:1 and see how I get on. The main problem seems to be consistently correct pivot points. I haven't looked at BBMac's indicator yet, but I saw one a while back that allowed you to enter the time difference of your broker. I guess that would mean the pivots are always calculated correctly.

Sam.

 

[pocrel]

cheers...came out for about 35 pips....regardless of inventories, watching your position (especially when in profit) is hardest part of trading.

damn that wti keeps dropping ddi what a shame any other day we would have been all over it

 

[pocrel]

potential long trades lining up dax and s and p and aud long

 

[DDI]

damn that wti keeps dropping ddi what a shame any other day we would have been all over it

tell me about it..dont think i couldve held it that much anyway, unless I set stops and limits and then go to a strip club!

 

[pocrel]

trade alert long dax now

 

[pocrel]

trade alert long dax now

chart

 

[pocrel]

going long aud now bit late in the day but setup is looking good

 

[pocrel]

going long aud now bit late in the day but setup is looking good

chart

 

[pocrel]

closing dax and aud for +17 full points

late in the day for me

total trades 5

+37 full points

 

[pocrel]

just in case anyone is still in those trades are going well no reason to get out, i have just lost concentration never went for my jog today, good to keep the mind clear

 

[megamuel]

I'm trying to recreate the results I got on my EA by trading with a 1:1 R:R. I knew the results wouldn't be the same because it's a different expert but I thought there would be some similarity. See attached pictures. The only thing I can think of it that my EA didn't have S3 and R3 and took a lot less trades than Mata's EA over the same time period. Could that cause the drastic change in results?

Sam.

 

[Mata Nui]

I'm trying to recreate the results I got on my EA by trading with a 1:1 R:R. I knew the results wouldn't be the same because it's a different expert but I thought there would be some similarity. See attached pictures. The only thing I can think of it that my EA didn't have S3 and R3 and took a lot less trades than Mata's EA over the same time period. Could that cause the drastic change in results?

Sam.

A couple of things i can see from your settings. Firstly you have IsFX set to false. This means it will not correctly calculate pivots on a monday, also the number of mismatch chart errors is quite high. My pinbar code flags up a lot more pins than the indicator used by your EA so that would also lead to more trades over such a long period.

The difference is a lot. What you can do is pick a week in the middle of the range where the systems performance seems vastly different and run the backtest visually. I do this a lot to check if things are working as they should.

 

[Mata Nui]

I couldnt trade today but looking at the charts it seems most of the trades today all came along at the end of the day (or just after). I did see a nice win on WTI though and a loss on EUR/USD. The loss got me thinking. Pins are all about market sentiment (especially at a pivot). We either get a reversal (a win) or the pin works like a fakeout, triggering our order then continuing the trend the other way (we lose). Either way, unless we are trading a pin in chop the move has a fair bit of momentum behind it.

I was wondering then, if we see a 'good' pin (good shape, just passing the pivot, at the top or bottom of a move) would it not be a better idea to 'bracket' the pin? The EUR/USD trade today would have more than made up for the loss if we had. I have noticed a few others after a quick look at the charts also.

 

[DDI]

HIMata what do you mean by "bracketing" the pin?

 

[4fx]

..it means placing orders both sides of the pin, so that (as in the EU setup earlier) you can take advantage of the 'fakey' and hopefully recover the initial loss.

 

[DDI]

..it means placing orders both sides of the pin, so that (as in the EU setup earlier) you can take advantage of the 'fakey' and hopefully recover the initial loss.

good point. indeed some of the losing trades do go along way n the opposite direction.

However I do think if one wants to filter the system, which on evidence of past couple of months is not necessary (but longer term back test results differ), its best to look at factors such as preceding bars, trend, ma etc..as opposed to whether the pin closed 1 pip too low or high.

Am keeping a record of all my trades against MACD indicator. will put out some results later if i can.

 

[pocrel]

Was a busy day today but the system performed well if it was automated

these are what it would have picked up from my visual inspection

winners

wti +87.5
eur +33
cable+30 (other half still running)

+150.5

losers

silver -40
dax-24
2x aud -56

-120

so overall the system produced +30.5

 

[DDI]

my sample size has reached 158 trades I have picked up since end march (I haven't traded them all sadly!)

75 winners (either next pivot or 2:1)
32 x 1:1
51 losers

still in line with the results when sample was 100 - about 2 out of 3 trades have returned at least 1:1.

I have also recorded results against the following 4 MACD histogram conditions:

A) histogram both in same mode of trend and momentum increasing (eg, if long, histogram is positive and increasing):

25 wins, 12 x 1:1, 8 Losers.

B) histogram in opposite mode but momentum in favour of trade(eg, if long, hist is negative but its absolute value is decreasing):

29 winners, 11 x 1:1, 15 x losers

C) Histogram in same mode as trade but decreasing momentum (eg if long hist is positive but value decreasing):

9 wins, 1 x 1:1, 14 losers.

D) Histogram in opposite mode and strengthening momentum (so if long, hist negative and absolute value increasing):

11 winners, 8 x 1:1, 15 losers.

As you can see the results of conditions A and B are much better. However in the past 2 days some of the best trades (which I ignored!) had conditions C or D.

Also apart from sample size still being too small, one cant rely that much on index or futures on MACD (or other indicators) as some of their calculations are derived from out of hours broker prices.

 

[pocrel]

morning, line are drawn ready to trade at 830

 

[pocrel]

trade alert aud looking good for a long waiting for the bar to finish