trader_dante
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Petering out?
Really?
Really?
gugaplex said:
TWI
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I think we are entering a range here, needed to find the upside limit.
Still believe we will push higher later in year or even next year and only building longs on weakness myself, certainly not shorting, but looking like a two way time of chop for a while IMO.
Still believe we will push higher later in year or even next year and only building longs on weakness myself, certainly not shorting, but looking like a two way time of chop for a while IMO.
SeanBrad said:
The general price movement for gold is usually around 0.5% to 1.0% per day. However due to the recent speculation in gold (long or short), the metal has seen the usual swing of 1-2%. In my opinion, this is a sign of a changing trend. When assets are over-sold and have very volatile prices, it may signal a bottom. The opposite is true for assets that are at/near their highs. I believe gold has moved so erradicately of late because it has peaked and the large investors are dumping their holdings on every bounce they see.
Just my opinion. If you think I'm an idiot (you're not alone), then check my track record on this thread.
The Baptist
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On the Contrary my Dear Watson! The Big Picture sais...
Not sure about your belief in the big investors, dumping on every bounce.
I think we are going to get a move upwards tomorrow and make a relative High over the next few trading periods.
I do not however necessarily see the 680 level being taken out in the first leg but a fall back to a higher low (> 600) in classic 'Baptist Flag' fashion. this would emphasize a squeezing out of Vols, before a more violent move to the upside on the return of volatility a bit later.
Commentators will attach the violent move to some development in the middle East, and I will chuckle on the basis that it will be doing that because it was always going to do that, as we may well be witnessing a large continuation pattern. Similar to the smaller one that set up over Feb and March this a year which I believe Twalker joined me in trading up from 550 to over 700.
Further to this set up level, in the harshest of the sell off in the primary bear counterattack, the 550 was support as the previous patterns axis, the metal has settled above 600, without every Institution fleeing for the doors, if they have, they had plenty time at these levels to force Gold down to sub 550 if they were indeed 'trying'.
I have attached Relative value of Gold to T-Notes 10yr, No surprises Gold rel. value still lagging. Only a small move from the Asians out of bankrupt fiat currencies into tangibles could see a very big move to realign. Chart 1 (Annual chart starting in 1979 as far as my data etxends)
Chart 2 is my 'stick the neck out' prediction for a 'Baptist 3pt Flag', a continuation pattern of original trend. Daily Chart
gugaplex said:
Not sure about your belief in the big investors, dumping on every bounce.
I think we are going to get a move upwards tomorrow and make a relative High over the next few trading periods.
I do not however necessarily see the 680 level being taken out in the first leg but a fall back to a higher low (> 600) in classic 'Baptist Flag' fashion. this would emphasize a squeezing out of Vols, before a more violent move to the upside on the return of volatility a bit later.
Commentators will attach the violent move to some development in the middle East, and I will chuckle on the basis that it will be doing that because it was always going to do that, as we may well be witnessing a large continuation pattern. Similar to the smaller one that set up over Feb and March this a year which I believe Twalker joined me in trading up from 550 to over 700.
Further to this set up level, in the harshest of the sell off in the primary bear counterattack, the 550 was support as the previous patterns axis, the metal has settled above 600, without every Institution fleeing for the doors, if they have, they had plenty time at these levels to force Gold down to sub 550 if they were indeed 'trying'.
I have attached Relative value of Gold to T-Notes 10yr, No surprises Gold rel. value still lagging. Only a small move from the Asians out of bankrupt fiat currencies into tangibles could see a very big move to realign. Chart 1 (Annual chart starting in 1979 as far as my data etxends)
Chart 2 is my 'stick the neck out' prediction for a 'Baptist 3pt Flag', a continuation pattern of original trend. Daily Chart
The Baptist said:
Gold is STRUGGLING despite the "chaos" in the Middle East that we see with Israel and Lebanon (not to mention Iraq and Afghanistan). The news will likely become more positive from here and further fuel a gold sell-off. But you can continue to post your charts and such, if that makes you feel better. I like to trade primarily on fundamentals, and add a "dash" of technical analysis. Basing your predictions primarliy on technical analysis will bite you in the a$$ eventually....
TWI
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I have a long from these levels. Will hang in there and see what happens. From a fundamental perspective recent price action in Gold has been a concern. Most surprising was the sell off as things were kicking off in Lebanon and Bernanke came out dovish...This should have been ideal reason to rally the a*se off it but it actually dumped. Me thinks there was some concerted selling to deliberately put a cap on it and so get some of the weak longs to join the bear party. Ultimately i remain in the longer term bull camp and I am long here on technicals alone.
TWI
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gugaplex called the end to the initial raly with excellent timing at the beginnign of this thread so I would not take that away from him. I was still calling it bullish then, along with my position. He has stayed firmly in the bear camp since and right now probably still has a 50% chance of being right, I think his opinions are worth listening to.
The Baptist
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Its War .. and then again not
You make a fair point on relative weakness during period of impied possible strength. But my view is as previously stated if it is heading down, its going there regardless of headlines as yet I do not see this flare up as being massively significant to long term Global growth, inflation etc. especially with Iraq turmoil already in the market whats one more barney going to change. This could change if a whole Syria, Iran etc.. war emerged, but I think we should duck that for now.
My Response to you is by no means a personal attack, I hope you don't find concern on currencies incl. your own as being in that category. You have created interesting debate for people to describe their arguements.
The problem with being fundamental is you have to be entirely so, and must have all the relevant information often before others , and know which piece has disproportionate sway at any given moment. I believe this would be very hard to do.
Charting is in fact the signature and expression of the 'Lead Steers' and market makers fundamental view and does not have mutually exclusive relationship with Fundamentals. In short if they think it looks rich they sell and vice versa.
I am sticking my neck out with my prediction I could be entirely wrong, or right but not in the fashion I predicted.
I felt the Thread needed to refer to the Price Action, as nobody in this Thread so far has delivered a thorough and all encompassing Fundamental view that I was prepared to second, and as you pointed out I like 'pictures' of peoples opinions and there voting sentiment, it tells me with a higher percentage correctly than not that If I were to have a position in this market over the next few days and probably long run. I would choose Long over short.
Got some funnymentals to back your 'bubble sentiment' statement (where does that leave US Notes given my relative charts if Gold is in a Bubble?) Lets here a fully motivated factual statement.
gugaplex said:
You make a fair point on relative weakness during period of impied possible strength. But my view is as previously stated if it is heading down, its going there regardless of headlines as yet I do not see this flare up as being massively significant to long term Global growth, inflation etc. especially with Iraq turmoil already in the market whats one more barney going to change. This could change if a whole Syria, Iran etc.. war emerged, but I think we should duck that for now.
My Response to you is by no means a personal attack, I hope you don't find concern on currencies incl. your own as being in that category. You have created interesting debate for people to describe their arguements.
The problem with being fundamental is you have to be entirely so, and must have all the relevant information often before others , and know which piece has disproportionate sway at any given moment. I believe this would be very hard to do.
Charting is in fact the signature and expression of the 'Lead Steers' and market makers fundamental view and does not have mutually exclusive relationship with Fundamentals. In short if they think it looks rich they sell and vice versa.
I am sticking my neck out with my prediction I could be entirely wrong, or right but not in the fashion I predicted.
I felt the Thread needed to refer to the Price Action, as nobody in this Thread so far has delivered a thorough and all encompassing Fundamental view that I was prepared to second, and as you pointed out I like 'pictures' of peoples opinions and there voting sentiment, it tells me with a higher percentage correctly than not that If I were to have a position in this market over the next few days and probably long run. I would choose Long over short.
Got some funnymentals to back your 'bubble sentiment' statement (where does that leave US Notes given my relative charts if Gold is in a Bubble?) Lets here a fully motivated factual statement.
The Baptist
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Nice little move on the Goldy on the go from take out of Hammer at 619 (see previous chart) currently at 625 any other bulls in for a ride? Twalker where are Ya! get your surf wax out!.
The Baptist
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'Strength 'n Adversity!'.... Goldilocks cried to the big bad Gugaplex Bear!
Gold jumped surprisingly yesterday after the dovish Beige book comments by the FED breaking the short term downtrend the 17th of July and went through 624,20 resistance ( ZGQ6) spiking through the 631 /oz, now targeting the 637/oz level . The Rome Summit turned out to be a big disappointment where no solutions to the ongoing middle East conflict were presented. As the summit kicked off gold dropped on high expectations.. Current nature of the Gold futures leaves us to continue treat it as an intra day affair where the volatility offers good trading possibilities both ways..
We are currently looking to go long from $629/oz ( $625 if seen) targeting 637 and 641,20 resistance levels
Note: August contracts goes in top First Notice Monday the 31st of July and volumes will be found in the December contracts (ZGZ6)
Gugaplex, thisis fundamental comment from Saxo bank (Italics), as you mentioned weakness in the face of perceived positive fundamentals, what do you make of the apparent strength on the 'doveish Beige book' , this would surely constitute strength in the face of adversity.
As I have previously said I believe Gold's gone up because the price action had always indicated to me that short term it would probably do that, not because of the apparent headline for the day.
I have traded it long from 619 and closed out between 633 -635.
If you are of bearish disposition you may get some reward at present, not necessarly for far, but I am trying a small short position on, on the possibility of a moderate sized correction, but for safety, in what I believe is still long run a bull, I would target well this side of 600 rather than expect to go through this level.
gugaplex said:
Gold jumped surprisingly yesterday after the dovish Beige book comments by the FED breaking the short term downtrend the 17th of July and went through 624,20 resistance ( ZGQ6) spiking through the 631 /oz, now targeting the 637/oz level . The Rome Summit turned out to be a big disappointment where no solutions to the ongoing middle East conflict were presented. As the summit kicked off gold dropped on high expectations.. Current nature of the Gold futures leaves us to continue treat it as an intra day affair where the volatility offers good trading possibilities both ways..
We are currently looking to go long from $629/oz ( $625 if seen) targeting 637 and 641,20 resistance levels
Note: August contracts goes in top First Notice Monday the 31st of July and volumes will be found in the December contracts (ZGZ6)
Gugaplex, thisis fundamental comment from Saxo bank (Italics), as you mentioned weakness in the face of perceived positive fundamentals, what do you make of the apparent strength on the 'doveish Beige book' , this would surely constitute strength in the face of adversity.
As I have previously said I believe Gold's gone up because the price action had always indicated to me that short term it would probably do that, not because of the apparent headline for the day.
I have traded it long from 619 and closed out between 633 -635.
If you are of bearish disposition you may get some reward at present, not necessarly for far, but I am trying a small short position on, on the possibility of a moderate sized correction, but for safety, in what I believe is still long run a bull, I would target well this side of 600 rather than expect to go through this level.
The Baptist
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The Baptist said:
Covered my short almost immediately just don't feel comfortable shorting this market.
TWI
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I think Gold will settle down through August as will a lot of markets. Volls will decline and gold will trade choppy 600-675. Still money to be made but I think better wait to buy dips or support rather than breakouts for now. Into the end of the year I would expect a resumption of strong uptrend.
The use of bunkerbusters in Iran once a reason to use them has been manufactured via some phoney Hezbolla link could be the flag to this range scenario but my timing for thermonuclear war is Q3 2007 so will not influence summer blues unless Dubya has a bad day with slave boy Blair.
The use of bunkerbusters in Iran once a reason to use them has been manufactured via some phoney Hezbolla link could be the flag to this range scenario but my timing for thermonuclear war is Q3 2007 so will not influence summer blues unless Dubya has a bad day with slave boy Blair.
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The Baptist
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Gold so far, Possible relative High soon.
A good week for gold, as per the chart I posted with the bottom I expected at the hammer of 24/7. See original Chart posted here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=266748&postcount=67
interesting to note a second hammer formed after the one I highlighted, both on above average Volume. This was further confirmation for me and allowed for some profitable trading right up and into the 630's from entry points at 619 into the low 620's. This however is all a little bit of play before the breakout I anticipate may be setting up
See revised chart below:
I currently feel we will make a relative high point not exceeding 682 ie. somewhere in the range of 654 - 682 during the coming week. The possibility exists that the 653.8 high of 27/07 was it. Although I favour slightly a higher day or two getting us into 660'/670's. Although we have just had a possible evening star for this upleg.
This 3rd rel high point once made will be relevant to me, as a final addition to long point using buy stop's if an upside BO occurs and the anticpated pattern holds. The bulk of the position being established at high volume hammer lows and susbequent confirmations of bottom if made and most recent support at 615 holds.
good luck in the new week but watch those longs for now possible weakness ahead. slightly long term keep some powder dry.
The Baptist said:
A good week for gold, as per the chart I posted with the bottom I expected at the hammer of 24/7. See original Chart posted here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=266748&postcount=67
interesting to note a second hammer formed after the one I highlighted, both on above average Volume. This was further confirmation for me and allowed for some profitable trading right up and into the 630's from entry points at 619 into the low 620's. This however is all a little bit of play before the breakout I anticipate may be setting up
See revised chart below:
I currently feel we will make a relative high point not exceeding 682 ie. somewhere in the range of 654 - 682 during the coming week. The possibility exists that the 653.8 high of 27/07 was it. Although I favour slightly a higher day or two getting us into 660'/670's. Although we have just had a possible evening star for this upleg.
This 3rd rel high point once made will be relevant to me, as a final addition to long point using buy stop's if an upside BO occurs and the anticpated pattern holds. The bulk of the position being established at high volume hammer lows and susbequent confirmations of bottom if made and most recent support at 615 holds.
good luck in the new week but watch those longs for now possible weakness ahead. slightly long term keep some powder dry.
Sorry if I don't provide more facts to back up my opinions. I make long-term "bets" on markets based on various factors, but the two biggest are as such:
1) If the asset is RELATIVELY hyped by the general public (either bullish or bearish).
2) If the asset is at or near a long-term top or bottom.
Following these simple rules can yield great results. The facts are already in the price of the asset itself, so why have me drone on and on about inflation, jewelry demand, global instability, etc.?
Note: I stated RELATIVELY hyped to be specific to the popularity of the asset class. Stocks can be hyped all over the news when they are at extremes, and that is because stocks are much more popular to begin with than metals. The mere fact that my own mother asked me a few months ago if gold would be a good place to invest was a sell signal.
1) If the asset is RELATIVELY hyped by the general public (either bullish or bearish).
2) If the asset is at or near a long-term top or bottom.
Following these simple rules can yield great results. The facts are already in the price of the asset itself, so why have me drone on and on about inflation, jewelry demand, global instability, etc.?
Note: I stated RELATIVELY hyped to be specific to the popularity of the asset class. Stocks can be hyped all over the news when they are at extremes, and that is because stocks are much more popular to begin with than metals. The mere fact that my own mother asked me a few months ago if gold would be a good place to invest was a sell signal.
The Baptist
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My Dentist said by Gold!
This is anecdotal and interesting and also a potential cautionary that what we are thinking about is no longer as original and certainly not contrarian, but still not becessarily the best for timing. Your mother may be better informed, she may read more broadly. I remember the dotcom bubble going for awhile, years after mass media and my dentist were talking about it.
How many people who think this in th west actually do anything about it, in terms of buying the underlying itself, its not as easily accessable to Joe Public as equity (jewelry is not intrinsic investment)
Here in the UK house prices when I arrived in 1999 where/are a national obsession and were called too expensive and, I was told not too buy, they have more than doubled in that time.
Macro trends exist particularly when relative values may have slumbered for years. Growing wealth in India and China could see substantial Gold consumption from these nations.
gugaplex said:
This is anecdotal and interesting and also a potential cautionary that what we are thinking about is no longer as original and certainly not contrarian, but still not becessarily the best for timing. Your mother may be better informed, she may read more broadly. I remember the dotcom bubble going for awhile, years after mass media and my dentist were talking about it.
How many people who think this in th west actually do anything about it, in terms of buying the underlying itself, its not as easily accessable to Joe Public as equity (jewelry is not intrinsic investment)
Here in the UK house prices when I arrived in 1999 where/are a national obsession and were called too expensive and, I was told not too buy, they have more than doubled in that time.
Macro trends exist particularly when relative values may have slumbered for years. Growing wealth in India and China could see substantial Gold consumption from these nations.
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