New Trend for Gold?

[turtle trader]

Objective view:

Gold is down $25 today.

The bubble is popping.

Will you be left holding the bag?

Alternative objective view:

Gold has dropped to support at previous (April) congestion and has so far held above the low of Mondays reversal. It's starting to build a base & will trade between about 640 & 670 before continuing its bull run.

This scenario may or may not play out - this is a traders site not an investors one, so people will generally trade what is actually happening rather than getting married to a position/point of view as you seem to be. I have been short today (from 666.6) but have just hit my tgt (638). Tomorrow I'll see what's happening & hopefully take some more, but I won't be worrying about where it's going to be a week/month/whatever from now and I certainly won't be banging on about it to anyone who'll listen just to try and attract visitors to my website - I can only assume this is what you're doing as I can see no other purpose in your ramping.

Good luck
Simon

 

[gugaplex]

Alternative objective view:

Gold has dropped to support at previous (April) congestion and has so far held above the low of Mondays reversal. It's starting to build a base & will trade between about 640 & 670 before continuing its bull run.

This scenario may or may not play out - this is a traders site not an investors one, so people will generally trade what is actually happening rather than getting married to a position/point of view as you seem to be. I have been short today (from 666.6) but have just hit my tgt (638). Tomorrow I'll see what's happening & hopefully take some more, but I won't be worrying about where it's going to be a week/month/whatever from now and I certainly won't be banging on about it to anyone who'll listen just to try and attract visitors to my website - I can only assume this is what you're doing as I can see no other purpose in your ramping.

Good luck
Simon

If I were trying to promote my website, I would say "visit my website". I like this forum because there are some interesting points of view and very bright folks here. I figure they would like to hear other people's opinions despite whether or not they agree. I base my market views on the basics, buy the under-valued and neglected/sell the over-valued and hyped. If I seem to be brief (i.e. neglect to go into too much detail) it is because the market has already built all the fun facts into the prices you see today. Therefore, if an asset is at a 25 year high and it is difficult to find any bears, then the asset should be sold and avoided like the plague. All the nice numbers and political facts mean very little when there are billions of dollars being invested by banks and brokerages that have already researched these numbers and placed their bets.

 

[TWI]

gugaplex,
Good call on the gold. If I have exited after your first mail I would have been all the better for it. So where from here? Personally, as I mentioned before, I still see this dip as corrective in nature. I do not think this is in any way the start of a new trend. There has been an across the board move to take some marbles off the table, base metals seem to have been leading the way in the volatility stakes. This is not a time to short commodities.

 

[turtle trader]

If I were trying to promote my website, I would say "visit my website". I like this forum because there are some interesting points of view and very bright folks here. I figure they would like to hear other people's opinions despite whether or not they agree. I base my market views on the basics, buy the under-valued and neglected/sell the over-valued and hyped. If I seem to be brief (i.e. neglect to go into too much detail) it is because the market has already built all the fun facts into the prices you see today. Therefore, if an asset is at a 25 year high and it is difficult to find any bears, then the asset should be sold and avoided like the plague. All the nice numbers and political facts mean very little when there are billions of dollars being invested by banks and brokerages that have already researched these numbers and placed their bets.

OK, are you actually short Gold or do you have a strategy to profit from the weakness you see?
As I said yesterday, I'm looking for it to trade between the high & low already established this week until it breaks either of those levels. After yesterdays short trade I've now entered long June Futures at 645.8 targeting 656 and then 662, with a stop below yesterdays low. (No doubt stating this will jinx the trade & I'll get stopped out!). How about you let us know how you're positioned?

Simon

 

[TWI]

I am now flat precious after a good upside run. I do not think it is time to stand in the way of this sell-off. Best bet is to stand aside and await a consolidation follwoed by a renewed break upwards, unlikely to see this before the approaching long weekend. Not a lot of good candidates to be long right now.

 

[turtle trader]

I am now flat precious after a good upside run. I do not think it is time to stand in the way of this sell-off. Best bet is to stand aside and await a consolidation follwoed by a renewed break upwards, unlikely to see this before the approaching long weekend. Not a lot of good candidates to be long right now.

It's the consolidation i'm trying to play on this one - as you say it's not likely to break before the w/e so i'm just hoping to take something from the consolidation by entering at the bottom & then getting out towards the middle/top. Definitely not one i'll be holding onto for too long.

To be honest I'm pretty new to trading Gold but it's been working very well so far - definitely worth a look for anyone who's looking to take swing/positional trades.

Simon

 

[gugaplex]

gugaplex,
Good call on the gold. If I have exited after your first mail I would have been all the better for it. So where from here? Personally, as I mentioned before, I still see this dip as corrective in nature. I do not think this is in any way the start of a new trend. There has been an across the board move to take some marbles off the table, base metals seem to have been leading the way in the volatility stakes. This is not a time to short commodities.

twalker,

Thanks for the comment, I guess everyone gets lucky some times. As for what I think is next for gold, it may bounce nicely from these levels. The question is, does it bounce and make new 25-year highs, or does it bounce and top-out short of new 25-year highs. Either way, I don't think its going to be bull-running much longer, and it is getting too risky to go long at any point in my opinion. Good luck....

 

[JasonC2]

Objective view:

Gold is down $25 today.

The bubble is popping.

Will you be left holding the bag?

Well, gugaplex

This gold reversal is a direct reaction to the sharp fall of equity markets of recent weeks, which in turn is being caused by interest rate uncertainty

Practically every stockmarket, stock, commodity and portfolio on the planet has been affected by this sudden market drop

There's a knock-on effect for all financial investments

Will I be left holding the bag? I believe this is an american expression, It means nothing to me

The kind of behaviour seen in major world indices of recent, namely the dow and ftse, is misproportional to the potential effects of a small interest rate increase by the fed and shows how stupid and irrational the body of equity investors are

"herd behaviour" like a bunch of farm animals

 

[gugaplex]

Well, gugaplex

This gold reversal is a direct reaction to the sharp fall of equity markets of recent weeks, which in turn is being caused by interest rate uncertainty

Practically every stockmarket, stock, commodity and portfolio on the planet has been affected by this sudden market drop

There's a knock-on effect for all financial investments

Will I be left holding the bag? I believe this is an american expression, It means nothing to me

The kind of behaviour seen in major world indices of recent, namely the dow and ftse, is misproportional to the potential effects of a small interest rate increase by the fed and shows how stupid and irrational the body of equity investors are

"herd behaviour" like a bunch of farm animals

Good point.....

 

[oatman]

The kind of behaviour seen in major world indices of recent, namely the dow and ftse, is misproportional to the potential effects of a small interest rate increase by the fed and shows how stupid and irrational the body of equity investors are

Unfortunately, the clowns ignore the signals 'til it's too late, and then.............

 

[chump]

"shows how stupid and irrational the body of equity investors are

"herd behaviour" like a bunch of farm animals
"...

you may be missing the point...the fact that so many reacted so quickly to something which looked at least relatively superficial might tell you at least how sensitive so many people are to the amount of open profit they currently have out there...put it this way...if Ftse does not confidently take out 6000 before someone burps loudly do not be stood underneath thinking
"how stupid and irrational the body of equity investors are"

I could make the same statement for gold

 

[gugaplex]

Gold getting hammered again. Momentum is building for big downward movement on the horizon.

 

[sambinho]

Gold getting hammered again. Momentum is building for big downward movement on the horizon.

Where do you see this momentum building, and how big a downward movement are you envisioning on the horizon?

 

[gugaplex]

Low $500's by a year from now or less. Not quite sure where thereafter. Shall see when the time comes...

 

[TWI]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/06/05/cnrussia.xml

 

[trader_dante]

I feel there is further to go in Gold's climb but it is just a feeling and I don't trade feelings.

I am short until I see a daily close above 655.
At such a time I will consider resuming a long position.

 

[gugaplex]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/06/05/cnrussia.xml

We shall see....

 

[real1]

http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/06/gold-and-silver-charts.html

 

[gugaplex]

Gold DOWN to $577/oz today, the bubble pop is in FULL swing!

 

[fxmarkets]

interesting to see if demand comes in @ 572/75 levels