my journal 2

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Yes, and now even more favorable trades (all profitable today) have brought us in just one day from 600 dollars away from uncle point to 23k away from uncle point. Today we made 15k.

Tomorrow or sunday I will post the equity curve, which will show some nice changes.

Another two days like these and we will exceed the previous equity line peak.
 
Congrats!
I would say now you have some buffer back that you reduce your leverage. The drawdown may be complete but it could happen again. A 23k profit in one day does suggest you are over leveraged.
 
una buona notizia, ben fatto per tenere su. Penso che sia giusto sì? (Io ho usato un sito di traduzione) :)
 
leonarda said:
Congrats!
I would say now you have some buffer back that you reduce your leverage. The drawdown may be complete but it could happen again. A 23k profit in one day does suggest you are over leveraged.
Click to expand...

Well, but wait... first of all I made 15k in one day, and second being overleveraged should be judged by how much you lose relative to how much you're willing to lose, and here we're talking about profit.
 
Here's the new equity line:

Snap4.gif
 
Looking much better, I think most of us watching this thread had over estimated
the upside bias, I know I did.
Looking at the EC now, I think the bulk of the DD was actually due to weekend gaps
and fast downside panic moves, not a general short side weakness, as the GC/SI move proves :)
 
The new look Equity Curve and gives you a fair chance of ending the current drawdown and achieving a new account hi ? But I wonder to what extent you think it may be 'flattering to decieve ? ' [given that the big silver profit came from the $6.49, 18% decline to $30.05 an ounce yesterday (that’s the September contract) which was the worst dollar loss since January 22, 1980 and the worst percentage loss since April 27, 1987] - ie what may turn out to be an 'anomoly / black swan event ? ' However I think you said that all enabled systems did well yesterday ?

Whatever, it's an amazing turnaround from the drawdown lo and particularly in just a few days.

G/L
 
Yes, thanks all for the feedback and support and constructive criticism.

Needless to say, I am in a very good mood.

As can be seen from many things, the systems are not totally correlated to ES and EUR and often this shows. All I ever said was that they do better if ES and EUR both rise rather than if they both fall, and that is simply due to a large number of them going only LONG on EUR, ES and markets correlated with them.

Anyway, all is well now. We have a cushion of 23k again, and the bad luck is very unlikely to hit us again so soon. It was a close call, and it showed some problems in our work. It cannot be denied. Even if it were only the fact that we weren't ready for the big drawdown we saw. I spoke about this to the investors, as I told them about the other potential problems, among which a potential problem with choosing over-optimized combinations.

I believe in the future we should simply choose good systems, rather than good combinations. Otherwise there will always be very bad surprises.
 
Back at the airport, this time on the way back. Feeling fine. Tomorrow I will be at work and they won't recognize me after 3 weeks swimming in these sunny waters. I am like a different person. No longer hunchbacked from leaning too much on the computer screen. Better posture, better eyesight, thanks to resting my eyes, and thanks to not staring just at the screen but at healthier, further distances.

Things are not happening like they were in my dreams, and we had a huge drawdown in the last two months, but they're not as bad as they were in my nightmares either.

Somehow I got saved by the extra confidence the investors had in my systems, which made them accept a negative balance for a few days (we went as low as -5k).

I feel like god is on my side again, and i know it doesn't make any sense, first of all because I am atheist, but I can't help feeling that way.

I am confident that next week we will make a lot of money and the drawdown will be finally ended in about 3 weeks, with a new equity peak.

At the close on Friday we were at about 18k. We just need 20k more and we will exceed the previous peak. I can't motivate in detail but I am confident that the drawdown is over. The markets will be such that we will make money.
 
back at the office

Pretty bad day due to an overnight gold trade, but it could have been twice as bad. Also, the CL_ID_04 is losing thousands, as usual. It's been losing for the past six weeks.

I am back at work. Feeling ok. I resumed all my tasks. Received a lot of compliments for being tan. Big deal. Being tan is a merit. It's funny. Like being good-looking. It doesn't make any sense. Being tan is actually harmful to the skin. That is why I did not lie on the beach, ever. It was just a side-effect of swimming.

Anyway, we're now down to about 10k from uncle point, once again. Yeah, because if you add the losses from gold and oil, that brings us 10k lower.

Another unlucky day or two and we'll be in trouble again.

GC_ON_01 is the one that made money the most since we started trading, so I can't blame that system. I am instead pretty pissed off at CL_ID_04, which has done nothing but lose since we allocated 2 contracts, from the half contract it was trading. Until then, it had been the best system.

There's also a copper trade and other things cooking. A lot of bad and a lot of good could come out of today. If we break even for the day it's a miracle. But you know, the CL_ID_04 trade is still open so you never know. It still has 2 hours to go.
 
Down 17k for the day. Just 2k away from uncle point. Losing a lot on CL, SI, GBL.
 
Ok. Now we're down 20k for the day and actually slightly BELOW uncle point, but, as usual, we will keep the trades open for the day and see if they recover.
 
ouch ! that's a massive swing relative to the 160k avialable margin (12.5%)

Hope you get an equally large swing in your favour.

G/L



travis said:
Ok. Now we're down 20k for the day and actually slightly BELOW uncle point, but, as usual, we will keep the trades open for the day and see if they recover.
Click to expand...
 
2500 dollars below uncle point and we're 3 hours away from the time I will have to appraise the balance and decide whether to disable all systems or not.

These could be my last 3 hours of trading for a long time.

I've already talked to the investors and we're all ok with this decision (of course it is not up to me, even if I disagreed, except for the manual disabling of systems).

I bear some responsibilities in what has happened: I was too optimistic. This outcome is far from my worst-case scenario, so I am ok with any decision.

Anyway, this has been a good experience no matter what will happen in 3 hours. I would not have done better on my own.

Keeping my fingers crossed...
 
150 dollars below uncle point and 1 and a half hour to go

I don't have any hopes or illusions any more: if it doesn't happen today, it is very likely to happen tomorrow. Unless some miracle happens.
 
350 dollars above uncle point. If it ends like this, we will last another day.
 
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