**** me... huge realisation about why trend followers survive longer...

[arabianights]

Erm..guess I must be doing something wrong then.

Doesn't reversion to mean require the reversion to have already commenced? And for a trend play , for it to merely have halted its contra move? Moving 'away from' (reversion) covers more ground more quickly than 'slowing to a stop' (trend resumes).

The relative stop sizes in each scenario will reflect the momentum in each situation.

Not the point. We're talking about darwinian survival here to the extent that they're promoted, not to the extent that they're properly modified.

 

[Pazienza]

Furthermore (and I assume this has occurred to the more thoughtful readers, amongst whom I count all the current respondents) this would even occur if the market were somewhat mean reverting in character. For simplicity's sake, let's assume very basic trend following strategies versus very basic mean reverting strategies... the former have larger stops than the latter!

So -EV strategies may in fact survive longer!

One day, when I've built a big enough stake from piking for a few ticks (or whatever the expression was) here's what I'm going to do.

Wait for the obvious turning point to be established, buy (or sell, as the case may be) a truckload of ES (or NQ, maybe even some YM) when the opportunity presents itself in my normal intraday style. Manage in terms of going to break even like I would with a normal intraday trade.

When I get the one that doesn't come back, I'm going to ride that truckload of ES (etc) all the way up (or down) with my stop at break even. In fact, I'm going to go away for two years (returning once quarterly in order to roll) and then just sell or cover 24 months or so after opening my position.

I will then retire as a millionaire.

I challenge anyone to find a flaw in my trend-following plan.

 

[TheBramble]

Not the point. We're talking about darwinian survival here to the extent that they're promoted, not to the extent that they're properly modified.

What's promoted? How promoted? What's modified?

 

[TheBramble]

Wait for the obvious turning point to be established,

[...]

I challenge anyone to find a flaw in my trend-following plan.

Taa Daa!!!!

If managing to breakeven as normal was a standard option I'd ride the mutha' too...

 

[Pazienza]

Taa Daa!!!!

Not the actual turning point. Let it get under way a bit before I start buying (or selling as the case may be).

Seriously, are you saying it wasn't pretty clear after the first month or so from the bottom in 2009 that we'd turned? F***in' Stevie Wonder could've seen the market was going up.

By the way, I'm answering this in the style of Cohodas so please be aware that:

I am right, and you are not.

I fly model aeroplanes so I know a thing or two about index futures, let me tell you.

I have got a gun in my pocket, but I'm also pleased to see you.

In any case, I have disproved your objection to my own satisfaction.

 

[Pazienza]

Your right Bramble - he's on HC's thread checking out a picture of Sarah Palin in a bikini. Normality has resumed. Nothing to see here now, move along folks.

You will not f***in' believe how many varieties of stars and stripes cozzies there are:

http://www.trimbodies.net/shop/en-us/dept_13.html

 

[TheBramble]

Seriously, are you saying it wasn't pretty clear after the first month or so from the bottom in 2009 that we'd turned?

In retrospect, yes.

I'm the bess knees going backward, can tell you every trade I would have taken - to the pip.

But I thought we were talking relative stop sizes and the efficacy (and therefore Survivorship bias) of Mean Reversion v. Trend?

I may be missing an angle and taking this all seriously when it's all part of the cosmic joke of which t2w is a part of which this sect is a part of which your admonition re: pointlessness of reply would have been better heeded than not.

 

[arabianights]

I fly model aeroplanes so I know a thing or two about index futures, let me tell you.

I actually have a remote control indoor helicopter here... it cost at least, oooh, £25 or something. Er, forgot where I was going with this, so I'm going to stimulate my foreskin with the rotor blades then go to bed.

 

[arabianights]

(pls reply within 5 mins if you will pay for the vid)

 

[TheBramble]

I actually have a remote control indoor helicopter here... it cost at least, oooh, £25 or something. Er, forgot where I was going with this, so I'm going to stimulate my foreskin with the rotor blades then go to bed.

Chopper chopper?

edit:Time of post 11:36pm

 

[arabianights]

Oh, and here's Palin:

Where is most of the hair?

 

[Pazienza]

(pls reply within 5 mins if you will pay for the vid)

The time according to Accurist will be:

11.34 and 59 seconds precisely.

Phew! Just in time!

 

[arabianights]

too late night babe xxx

 

[Pazienza]

too late night babe xxx

Bollox! Looks like I'm going to have to get my copy of Porky's out again. Fortunately I can hit the pause button on the video with pin-point accuracy.

 

[sighthound]

I actually have a remote control indoor helicopter here... it cost at least, oooh, £25 or something. Er, forgot where I was going with this, so I'm going to stimulate my foreskin with the rotor blades then go to bed.

I take it the Green Range Rover dumped you then?

 

[traderman1]

If I get two up bars, three up bars, four up bars in a row, I may surmise with some confidence that more than 50/100 times there is a better than 50/100 chance of getting another up bar.

If I get two reds, three reds, four reds in a row in roulette, I don't have the same confidence in getting another red.

The rest of this thread is absolute rubbish, but the post above is a good, short description of the difference between trading and gambling.
Good work, TheBramble.

 

[Splitlink]

perhaps it is his hobby

I hope it is. If he's a professional it seems that he has problems.

 

[TheBramble]

Good set of clangers.

I think they're called symbols, but I'm no musician.

 

[shadowninja]

...in pretty much efficent markets.

So... what's my point? Simple. The unsuccessful trend followers will do so many less trades as they wait for confirmation of the trend, while the unsuccessful mean reverters, averagers, value players, whatever, will get to do a considerable lot more trades in the same time period.

Therefore whenever one looks at the population of "successful" outright traders one will see more trend followers. It will be fallacious to conclude this is the best way of trading... but it's what you will conclude... on the markets as much as the roulette wheel!

Massive assumptions about how people trade there. A trend follower could buy at highs before the market falls to take out their stops. Or buy the dips only for it to dip lower. There are countless people who follow the trend and still have their stops taken out because they can't read the market. So unconclude until you've learnt how others (successful and unsuccessful) trade using the charts.

 

[DashRiprock]

i think is what he means is i can say like

"I'm a sucessful trend follower i trade the hindenburg omen... ill still be a successful trend follower for the next 2 years while i wait for another setup"

because the mean reversioners do so many more trades than trend followers there half life is shorter. i think anyway thats what hes saying. i dont get all teh stuff about stops, its not relevent.