Trend Following

Hope I've found the right forum here. I'm new to trading. Been researching into Trend Following quite a bit as it seems a lot of the big players (AHL, Louis Bacon etc) seem to use it. The thing I can't get over is the simplicity. I've read a few books on the topic.

If we take for example the turtle trader strategy it's as simple as trade the 55 day breakout with 2 x ATR as a stop and add to your position every 1/2 ATR in your direction whilst risking no more than 2% in any one trade. No indicators, no fundamental analysis just essentially fishing for a trend by accepting small losses. Theory being, even if you have more losses than wins (during whipsaws) the magnitude of the wins will outweigh the losses in the long term as markets tend to trend.

I strongly agree that markets tend to trend. look at any market and you can see signs of it. I guess what I'm asking is, is there anyone on here that uses a system as simple as this? Maybe not exactly the same thing but similar as there are loads of variations of this system.

The next step for me is to create a VBA based back testing spreadsheet for this strategy with the ability to change the parameters and see how it works. I think the real key is diversification therefore trading as many non-correlated markets as you can. S&P, USD, Pork Bellies, Lumber, Wheat etc.

So anyone on here use a system similar to this who would be willing to help out a novice????

(On another note, I have also been reading up on Joe Ross's 1-2-3 & Ross Hook strategy. Anyone on here use that???????)

Ross hook 123 is fine to use ............also plenty of trend following info out there ..............try books by Covell as well....trend following is successful but its the drawdowns that hurt..............deep pockets needed
 
I do a h/l and a l/h trend data sheet.
Each sheet shows the current h or l to the h or l for the previous sessions. I found at least in recent data the trends last approximately 5-15 days. I display my trends as a percentile of the h or low depending on which sheet I am using. A percentile of the furthest back data. I simply color code the data to mark out positive and negative percentiles.

erhmm...
I take todays low and subtract it from today high then display it as a percentile of today high 1st column then today low from yesterdays high as a percent of yesterdays high following through until the trend abates to find a bottom or a top.

The second sheet is exactly the same but the low and high are reversed.

I correlate the data between the 2 sheets to be sure either the trend has flattened and reversed how quickly that is happening and if it is line with previous trends.

I use this for index following EFTs and index following stocks with very low beta. And suppose it can work with commodity following EFT and stocks with an underlining commodity trend but that seems much more risky
 
A few interesting websites and blogs:

http://peterlbrandt.com/
Peter Brandt wrote "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader" which includes a section that follows his live trading over the course of a few months

https://jlnexus.wordpress.com/
A blog by an amateur trader who follows Peter Brandt's approach and posts every trade that's entered with an explanation and performance data.

http://www.followingthetrend.com/
Hasn't been updated in a while, but the blog's creator has stated that he will post again shortly.
 
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