Making Money Trading

[grimweasel]

How does this Pin bar on 1h Gold look then? I took it as the news behind the move down was that a lot of options expired that day and caused the sell.

The pin bar looks good, at a swing low, off 38% Fib level and a 1hr pivot level of 925 ish.

The other stuff on the chart (indicators) mean nothing for pins bars, I use them for another entry method. I do, however, like to confirm the overall trend with the 60SMA.

Just bought another book today on Spread Betting (which pleased the wife no end; "Not another bloody trading book, get a life" was the retort! Love eh?! A Harriman-House book on how to win in Spread Betting. I'll let you all know if it's any good!

Good Trading
Grim

 

[nunrgguy]

How about now?

Hmm
Is this right? In the first chart the tail of the pin does not break out of the short term down trend whereas in the 2nd chart it does? The 2nd charts trade is also countertrend with no real resistance, although perhaps 1.56 could be construed as being. The first chart the pin is preceded by a congestion zone after an uptrend so we're looking for possible retracement and then continuation. 1.515 is a possible pivot and there's a 61.8% fib from 1.507. Not one I would have seen though as it's not a pin on my charts, also the close is quite far from the close of the previous bar.

 

[trader_dante]

Hmm
Is this right? In the first chart the tail of the pin does not break out of the short term down trend whereas in the 2nd chart it does? The 2nd charts trade is also countertrend with no real resistance, although perhaps 1.56 could be construed as being. The first chart the pin is preceded by a congestion zone after an uptrend so we're looking for possible retracement and then continuation. 1.515 is a possible pivot and there's a 61.8% fib from 1.507. Not one I would have seen though as it's not a pin on my charts, also the close is quite far from the close of the previous bar.

What I was simply trying to say is that the second chart shows a CLEAN S/R PIVOT.

 

[nunrgguy]

ouch. my head hurts.

 

[TraderGreg]

Hello All,
Don't I love this?
Clean and simple; perhaps, just too simple. Yet incomprehensibly simple; because we think we need more complexity. But man the pin setups work! And with superb money management its a sure way grinning :cheesy: to the bank.

Simple trading. Thanks TD!
Cheers
TG

 

[trader_dante]

How does this Pin bar on 1h Gold look then? I took it as the news behind the move down was that a lot of options expired that day and caused the sell.

The pin bar looks good, at a swing low, off 38% Fib level and a 1hr pivot level of 925 ish.

Good trade Grim,

These are the up coming levels that I would be aware of.

Tom

 

[grimweasel]

Good trade Grim,

These are the up coming levels that I would be aware of.

Tom

Well, some you win some you lose. It did get to around 939 in the afternoon just before the US open, then sank like a stone! I placed my stop a few tick below the pin bar but was hit at about 1600 this afternoon.

 

[trader_dante]

Good trade Grim,

These are the up coming levels that I would be aware of.

Tom

The second level I marker this morning called the high of the day to 3 ticks.

This is why planning your trade is so important.

 

[trader_dante]

Well, some you win some you lose. It did get to around 939 in the afternoon just before the US open, then sank like a stone! I placed my stop a few tick below the pin bar but was hit at about 1600 this afternoon.

Hey Grim,

Just my opinion but there is no way that trade should have been allowed to develop into a loser.

I marked the levels at 8am this morning (see earlier post) and you should have done the same!

When the second level was rejected and price broke the first level AND the ascending TL you should have been LONG GONE.

This would still have given you a profit of around $3 or 30 ticks which would have been a good trade.


Tom

 

[grimweasel]

Hey Grim,

Just my opinion but there is no way that trade should have been allowed to develop into a loser.

I marked the levels at 8am this morning (see earlier post) and you should have done the same!

When the second level was rejected and price broke the first level AND the ascending TL you should have been LONG GONE.

This would still have given you a profit of around $3 or 30 ticks which would have been a good trade.


Tom

Tom,
Thanks for the update.
2 reasons for me why it failed really.

1. I set the upper R point a little higher at 942, and I was at £10 pp. I had a limit order in a point below that at 941 that was missed by a few points of a tick!! Goes back to not wringing every bit out of the trade. In hindsight I should have set the limit at 940 or even 939. Trouble is you have to let the winners run and,

2. I was away at work again and I'm unable to access any charts or SB stuff etc as HMG block it on our firewall. I would use my 3G mobile but the signal out here in the depths of the East Anglian country side is pretty dismal. Maybe I should only let a trade run when I know I can access it every hour or 4H? That will teach me for going to the Gym at Lunchtime instead! Hope this does not sound like me making up excuses. I think I just let a winner turn loser as I didn't monitor it enough intraday?

I have noted 2 pins forming on EUR/$ at the moment on the 4H and Daily charts. Trouble is there is nothing really in the way of S/R and the Fib is at 0% as its off the high again. Plus its heading into a minor pivot at 1.5735 so the r/r is not that great either. (PSB)
What's the strategy for this approach? I'd wait for confirmation on the next bar before any action, but it seems like this could be the high for $??

 

[grimweasel]

What are the prospects for Gold do we think? Has the tide turned and it's being sold off do we think, or this this a little too off topic?
I only ask as it seems to be a case of selling the rallies lately? Is there value left or is it time to get perma-short? As the $ increases in value possibly in the year I can only guess that gold will be sold off even more? Or is this a minor correction in a longer bull?
Grim

 

[trader_dante]

Grim,

I had a limit order in a point below that at 941 that was missed by a few points of a tick!!

Limit orders do what they say - they LIMIT your gains. In my opinion (and of course it is just an opinion) it is far better to see how the market moves when it reaches your level and act accordingly.

This of course requires that you are watching and if your job prohibits that then it makes it difficult.

Trouble is you have to let the winners run...

...whilst being careful that they don't run out of steam!

Maybe I should only let a trade run when I know I can access it every hour or 4H?

This is a very good idea. If you are out of the office during the day then trade off daily/weekly/monthly charts. Price action works on every TF. The only adjustment that needs to be made is MENTAL.

I have noted 2 pins forming on EUR/$ at the moment on the 4H and Daily charts. Trouble is there is nothing really in the way of S/R and the Fib is at 0% as its off the high again. Plus its heading into a minor pivot at 1.5735 so the r/r is not that great either. (PSB)
What's the strategy for this approach? I'd wait for confirmation on the next bar before any action, but it seems like this could be the high for $??

Again, IN MY OPINION, this setup is crying out to be taken but it should be taken with the FULL REALISATION that it is against a very strong trend and has a good probability of failing.

All I can tell you about counter trend trading is that it CAN BE DONE PROFITABLY if you can run your winners when you get them. But it takes experience and is not for the newbie. I'm not saying you are a newbie Grim, I am making a general point for everyone.

You are right, we are at an all time high and there is no S/R pivot BUT there is a pin bar that forms a DOUBLE TOP. The pin bars body is not at the top of the preceeding bars range - this is where the discretion element comes in. Sometimes some elements aren't perfect but other things compensate enough for them to make you want to take it.

You learn what works and what doesn't by keeping detailed records of the setups you take and the results of them.

As I have stated before, I cannot take this with real money due to the constraints of my job BUT I would take it if I could.

If you take this trade, be aware of the key levels on the way down. You can use them to trail your stop.

Key levels on daily TF:

First one is at 1.5500.

Second one is at 1.5300.

There is a minor at 1.5140 and then the big one is 1.5000.

 

[grimweasel]

Grim,



Limit orders do what they say - they LIMIT your gains. In my opinion (and of course it is just an opinion) it is far better to see how the market moves when it reaches your level and act accordingly.

This of course requires that you are watching and if your job prohibits that then it makes it difficult.




...whilst being careful that they don't run out of steam!




This is a very good idea. If you are out of the office during the day then trade off daily/weekly/monthly charts. Price action works on every TF. The only adjustment that needs to be made is MENTAL.



Again, IN MY OPINION, this setup is crying out to be taken but it should be taken with the FULL REALISATION that it is against a very strong trend and has a good probability of failing.

All I can tell you about counter trend trading is that it CAN BE DONE PROFITABLY if you can run your winners when you get them. But it takes experience and is not for the newbie. I'm not saying you are a newbie Grim, I am making a general point for everyone.

You are right, we are at an all time high and there is no S/R pivot BUT there is a pin bar that forms a DOUBLE TOP. The pin bars body is not at the top of the preceeding bars range - this is where the discretion element comes in. Sometimes some elements aren't perfect but other things compensate enough for them to make you want to take it.

You learn what works and what doesn't by keeping detailed records of the setups you take and the results of them.

As I have stated before, I cannot take this with real money due to the constraints of my job BUT I would take it if I could.

If you take this trade, be aware of the key levels on the way down. You can use them to trail your stop.

Key levels on daily TF:

First one is at 1.5500.

Second one is at 1.5300.

There is a minor at 1.5140 and then the big one is 1.5000.

Tom
Once again, many thanks for the wisdom.
I will be watching the E/$ pins. I will trade the 4H IF the next bar confirms the price action. At 50p per pip on a 97 pip risk I think the upside is worth the risk. However, I note that we are counter trading a STRONG trend as you say. The wider economic picture maybe being shaped by Fri's Non-Farm Payrolls. If the news is bad it could go up much further, but if we see a better US picture then the $ may become more attractive again? Could be further bad news for Gold, pure speculation mind!!!

I'm looking to load up on the Ishares DJI ETF in my ISA using my Gold ETF profits at the moment . I think the US could be the contrarian buy of the decade. I'm waiting for the signs, probably a crossing of the 30/50 SMA on the weekly DJI chart? Maybe even look for a pin bar or two?

 

[trader_dante]

Hope someone got on board...

 

[lazerradial2003]

td, just wondering now you're trading only one instrument, have you expanded your entry requirements? Not in terms of quality of entry but the type of entry you look for? Do you ever, for example, trade bounces off support and resistance without pins or breakouts from periods of consolidation?

Cheers, Ben.

 

[rider5]

Hi TD,

I got on board; demo of course. I'm still in the confidence building process. I had my eye on it, calculated the r:r, position size, potential problem areas, the works, but unsure because of the lack of s/r pivots.

However when you, Sir Dante, said that you would've taken it with real money, I jumped at the opportunity. Only problem now is trade management, as I'm kinda used to grab and run.

Any advice along the way shall be greatly appreciated.

Thank you

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD,

I got on board; demo of course. I'm still in the confidence building process. I had my eye on it, calculated the r:r, position size, potential problem areas, the works, but unsure because of the lack of s/r pivots.

However when you, Sir Dante, said that you would've taken it with real money, I jumped at the opportunity. Only problem now is trade management, as I'm kinda used to grab and run.

Any advice along the way shall be greatly appreciated.

Thank you

Here are the key levels, as I see them, on the daily chart which is what you should be concentrating on when you are in this trade.

As it breaks each level I move my stops in to the last area of consolidation OR the last area I feel the momentum began from.

That way I always have a KEY level between the current price and my stop and I know if I am stopped out that I am temporarily wrong - which is good enough for me!

 

[trader_dante]

td, just wondering now you're trading only one instrument, have you expanded your entry requirements? Not in terms of quality of entry but the type of entry you look for? Do you ever, for example, trade bounces off support and resistance without pins or breakouts from periods of consolidation?

Cheers, Ben.

The ultimate plan is to trade the strategy I have outlined here.

However, I am currently concentrating less on the candles and more on the levels and how the price trades at them.

When you have tight stops you have to pre-empt a little more as once the confirmation or rejection has occured it is to late to enter with a safe stop.

 

[grimweasel]

Hope someone got on board...

On board as of the 4h pin last night. I closed out at 86pips profit on an area of consolidation around the 1.5684 area as I had to leave for work. Saw a minor rally and have re-entered on that rejection at 1.5663. This one I think I will just leave to see if it hits the 1.5500 area for a small risk of 30 pips or so.

T-D - You must be wishing that you had been trading your personal account? Still, the firm will allow you much greater leaverage for other days in the markets where you can clean up!
Good Trading,
Grim

 

[1Pipped]

That euro trade looks like it is doing the business rather effectively, well done to all who are in! I didnt myself as I was already in a trade short cable.

Was the last trade in March bringing my 2 month old 'pin account' to +15% ... now if I could find a way to live on 89p a day, I could be a pro !!! Seriously though 15% for me is excellent and I must thank you TD very much for your teaching.

I think I still need to sort my greediness out in trading, and probably trade less as well.