Making Money Trading

[TraderGreg]

Hello mp6140,

This passage bellow digs deep into the methodology of TD's pin bar setups and trade management as dictated on this thread; I would prefer for him to argue the high quality of this PA trading method in terms of staying in trades and gathering the pips. I can say though that no matter how sophisticated your indicator based style of trading may be it cannot stump over the TD's methods in terms of navigating the mannerism of market and getting the most out of trades. If you have read through all this thread, you will have a good enough idea of how TD manages risk and trades ( I am a keen student of his and I do not vary much).

Price action is fine, and I stated that i use it in a modified manner, depending totally on s+r levels, trendlines and channels --- it is highly doubtful that you can get MORE out of a move than i can, but ill bet dollars to donuts my indicators KEEP ME IN MORE winning trades than your pure price action does, if only that i dont get stopped out and have to re-enter !

One point need making: I doubt if you can stay longer in trade and make more pips than someone trading PA on a bigger time frame. What time frame do you trade mostly? Can your system be applied on all time frames with overall effectiveness? PA has this quality about it!

NB: PA can only work or not work based on the trade plan. But good PA setups work more often than not!

let us take your same scenerio and since moves rarely just go up (at least not long term ones) let us say you get your entry appears, you enter, the price starts up AND THEN HEADS FOR THE FLOOR !

this has happened to all of us at some time --- now, what do your pin bars tell you to do now ? Has your stop been hit and youre now out of the trade with a loss ?

What is your typical stop distance? Curious! You sound like you have enormous flexibility with your trades . That would seem to mean big stops?

It about making the pips, and controlling your risk,
Cheers...

 

[TraderGreg]

Got your point and I love the image! Cheers

 

[Splitlink]

dont you love this thread??!!
but (indicators, my insert) can be be used as a profitable trading system completly ignoring price action.

I don't agree with that :!: . I thought the donkey pulled the cart.

Nevertheless, if you have a trading system using only indicators and ignoring the price action, who am I to deny you? You will know what your bottom line is.

Split

 

[black bear]

Agree Split

I don't agree with that :!: . I thought the donkey pulled the cart.

Nevertheless, if you have a trading system using only indicators and ignoring the price action, who am I to deny you? You will know what your bottom line is.

Split

Hi Split

You not talking to me because I changed my skin again :cheesy:

agree, do not use them any more at all but did at one time, just don"t see the point in them at all. They do not do anything imo but each to their own

mp

multy timeframes you mention on another thread. How anyone would or could struggle to no location / condition etc of more than a couple of timeframes at once in the moment of actually trading without use of an indicator.

Practice is best imho I can, takes practice same as anything else really, thats why I think indicators are not worth it, waste of time = cut straight to the point, sort of like learning to drive an auto car ~ then have to do a good lump of learning again to learn to drive a manual one to seems a bit of a waste of time to me.

To start if your new to multi timeframes and do not mind indicators (might help) ~

macd with histo best indicator if you or any of your followers have any trouble reading 2-3 at the same time, gives nice indication of whats going on in each and strength of moves that have taken place.

rsi with a 50 center line marked works well to


till you do not need them any more that is

would also say this is td"s thread and this rubbish is not at all relevent to his method at all imho. fftopic:

good trading all and have good weekend :clover:

 

[Splitlink]

Hi Split

You not talking to me because I changed my skin again :cheesy:

QUOTE]

Hi Andy,

You're impatient for my patter, aren't you ?

The last time I tried to answer your post, you were switched off!

(Again).

I'll get there, I have relatives over from the UK, this week.

Glad you are ok.

Split

 

[black bear]

Indicators on td thread

Hi Split

You not talking to me because I changed my skin again :cheesy:

QUOTE]

Hi Andy,

You're impatient for my patter, aren't you ?

The last time I tried to answer your post, you were switched off!

(Again).

I'll get there, I have relatives over from the UK, this week.

Glad you are ok.

Split

Hi Split

Its usually pretty good patter Split and you cut straight to the point, unlike some

Have a good time Split

right lets put the Fox in the Hen house (just off out so )

Indicators

Td method and indicators.

Td marks manual S&R points on chart and fibs and in fact his method imho goes some way to showing / proving indicators indicate nothing at all, certainly nothing to someone who is inexperienced, under those circumstances they are DANGEROUS

Mark a few S& R lines off yourself Days & hour tf(page 10-25 ish of this thread I think) ~ then watch price stretch towards R or S in a lower tf or even that tf

Indicator just goes out the window, price will carry on to where its going = R or S or even beyond if a strong move.

Indicators are worthless pieces of junk and thats why sb firms love to give you loads of them to play with. Gives you something to think about while you lose your shirt working out for yourself they do not work

They are illusions of control which all to often lead to very poor trading habits developing and actually imo stop a new trader developing further. They often then leave the field totally confused to why they have failed, when they did in fact follow the instructions available to them.

I wasted 6 months looking at them and imho they are complete Sh..t and a complete waste of time.

Just my opinion not having a go if they work for you.

If they do work for you and you decide to post I would ask you put method forward in a way that can be understood by a newby(as per theme of thread) and follow up or do not bother to post at all or worse = a one off example.

Td followed up every post on this thread for months, and infact from time to time still does.

I except that profitable strategies / methods are based on indicators and if you are one of those such people that use them with good results thats really great

I do not think they are a good starting point for anyone just starting out thats all and this is on the newby first steps threads. Everybody nows first steps are very important .....don"t they :?:

I would ask traders who use them and achieve great results to post in a thoughtful way to help new traders get started, not just some posted chart with a load of.....whatever on it ~ then say its top secret ~ work it out for yourself

Td set out a method that requires no indicators, probably does not require the use of fibs, I have not backtested it, (not my timeframe or instruments) but I would imagine from the potencial trades I have looked at in the timeframes originally put forward by td(week / day & entry in the hrs) its safe with small stakes till you make the method your own and learn some more.

I would ask mods to clean tds thread up and place all posts not related to td method some place else, I would guess a lot of new people looking in on thread start on the last few pages because of threads title to see if they like it. A shame because some real good stuff on the early pages.

latter............

 

[jonj]

I don't agree with that :!: . I thought the donkey pulled the cart.

Nevertheless, if you have a trading system using only indicators and ignoring the price action, who am I to deny you? You will know what your bottom line is.

Split

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif
i agree the donkey pulls the cart which does meanthat price can ignore the indicators,but jumpin on the band wagon can also make pips!as for a system there must be 1000s,you could probably make money trading stochs alone!just to be clear though i dont use them in my tradin methods(demos only) they make no difference to my trades.when a consolodation pattern breaks no indicator would make me trade it diferently!

 

[mp6140]

Hello mp6140,

This passage bellow digs deep into the methodology of TD's pin bar setups and trade management as dictated on this thread; I would prefer for him to argue the high quality of this PA trading method in terms of staying in trades and gathering the pips. I can say though that no matter how sophisticated your indicator based style of trading may be it cannot stump over the TD's methods in terms of navigating the mannerism of market and getting the most out of trades. If you have read through all this thread, you will have a good enough idea of how TD manages risk and trades ( I am a keen student of his and I do not vary much).

One point need making: I doubt if you can stay longer in trade and make more pips than someone trading PA on a bigger time frame. What time frame do you trade mostly? Can your system be applied on all time frames with overall effectiveness? PA has this quality about it!

NB: PA can only work or not work based on the trade plan. But good PA setups work more often than not!

Youre missing so much of what Im saying that perhaps weve gotten to apples and oranges --- First, I have NO "SYSTEM" --- im a trader, and with that title comes the ability to trade ANY type of market by simply modifying how and what i do since a "trader", with a decent amount of experience, can trade a market in any danged direction or range --- its called "experience !"

Concerning "staying in longer" (using viagra perhaps ????) I only stated that if you are using stoplosses, you will prob be stopped out given the scenerio i described, while i remain IN the trade based on a few simple and well proven indicators, therefore NOT having to make up my stop loss induced loss ! This situation is happening day after day on the H1 and H4 charts as the currency starts up from support, only to reverse at the 15 or 23 fib, come back down for a dbl bottom, and then at midnite actually start and complete its move (usually by mid day of the US market)
All of this safety is brought to me by a few small indicators that will tell me if this is a REAL reversal and i better be short to support, or this is only profit taking and will reverse before the uptrend is broken !

and we havent even gotten into my hedged contra trade, when the above happens -- going short to support which ADDS to the pips i will make on the upside move

Actually, now that i think about it, by combining both methods on intraday trading, following the upside and downside moves, I probably CAN make more than you if youre only trading in one direction !


What is your typical stop distance? Curious! You sound like you have enormous flexibility with your trades . That would seem to mean big stops?

While I get constant criticism, I note that even this site is now teaching how to trade WITHOUT stoplosses (simply trade the prevailing trend and the major trend) and thats how WIDE my stoplosses are --- there are NONE because if a trader cant tell where the trend is they better stop calling themselves traders !

It about making the pips, and controlling your risk,
Cheers...

Whats to argue with in that statement --- I fully agree !

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[black bear]

Great post and thread Td

I want to show you how to make money trading the markets. Naturally, it is not the only way to make money it is merely one way of doing so.

If you follow what I will teach you, try the methodology out on demo first before committing real money in a live account, gain confidence and understanding in the setups and you are patient and disciplined, you will make good money with this method.

The method I am going to show you is based on price action. It uses the price, fibonacci levels, three moving averages, the concepts of support and resistance and trend lines. From time to time it uses an indicator. It is not complicated to follow but it will take you time and effort to learn how to trade it for consistent profit.

We will take things very slowly because I want to make sure that everyone fully understands the concepts as we go along. Having said that, I expect those reading this to have at least a basic knowledge of the elements I have listed above. If you do not, go away and read up on them. You will find a huge amount of free information on them.

The method I will show you is not a system with a rigid set of entry and exit rules. It is not going to tell you that when X happens, do Y. It is a method of trading based on high probability setups.

It can be applied on any timeframe but I use it to make money on the hourly and daily timeframe because this is what I am comfortable with. Therefore these are the only timeframes we will work with here.

I work full time but I have access to my broker at work so I can check the charts every hour for setups. If you are not in a position to do this, then you will need to concentrate on the daily timeframe. Both timeframes work very well.

I want to concentrate on one market. The methods work across every market but I think it will confuse people if many traders are asking questions of different setups in different markets. Also, many traders don't have access to some markets or the margin requirements to trade them are too high. As a result I am going to post a poll and over the process of a few weeks we will eliminate which market we are going to trade going forward.

While the market is being decided, are there any questions?

Great post and thread Td

 

[nunrgguy]

Just out of interest, has anyone done any significant back testing of this method for themselves yet or is everyone just blindly jumping on board? The method is obviously working extremely well for TD and thanks go out but everyone else seems to be stating 80% success rate as fact across the board.
I've been doing my own back testing and, while the amount of entries so far is statistically insignificant, success rate is only around 50%. I will continue to test but won't be chucking any money at it until I can prove to myself a MUCH higher probability of success.

 

[Splitlink]

Just out of interest, has anyone done any significant back testing of this method for themselves yet or is everyone just blindly jumping on board? The method is obviously working extremely well for TD and thanks go out but everyone else seems to be stating 80% success rate as fact across the board.
I've been doing my own back testing and, while the amount of entries so far is statistically insignificant, success rate is only around 50%. I will continue to test but won't be chucking any money at it until I can prove to myself a MUCH higher probability of success.

This is an extremely useful tool, IMO, but it cannot work by itself. I've tried it and am now using it, but not exclusively, with other signals. I have an idea that some traders who have got enthusiastic with the idea now give it full credit it for all their wins. That's a mistake, I believe. Everything works if it is statistically backtested and found to be viable over a period of time. It's the trader who loses faith, most times.

Split

 

[black bear]

50 50

Just out of interest, has anyone done any significant back testing of this method for themselves yet or is everyone just blindly jumping on board? The method is obviously working extremely well for TD and thanks go out but everyone else seems to be stating 80% success rate as fact across the board.
I've been doing my own back testing and, while the amount of entries so far is statistically insignificant, success rate is only around 50%. I will continue to test but won't be chucking any money at it until I can prove to myself a MUCH higher probability of success.

Hi nunrgguy

From my look at method I would say thats pretty close to SR, you might achieve a little more when you make it your own.

Not my cup of T as I have said many times before.

Moves he plays for are very large ones and adds are very possible using method when you get a good one. He also concedes he gives a lot back to the market in order to get in on those big moves and then plays them to the death.

He points out you should demo it proper 1st

 

[trader_dante]

I've been doing my own back testing and, while the amount of entries so far is statistically insignificant, success rate is only around 50%.

If you're getting a 50% success rate you're doing something wrong.

If you post a typical setup you would have taken and include how you managed the trade, I can advise you.

If you take only the best setups you should be getting close to 90% win/loss ratio and that is without considering the fact that some of the setups lead to extended moves with multiple opportunities to add.

 

[trader_dante]

This is an extremely useful tool, IMO, but it cannot work by itself.

I believe this to be completely and utterly untrue.

 

[black bear]

If you're getting a 50% success rate you're doing something wrong.

If you post a typical setup you would have taken and include how you managed the trade, I can advise you.

If you take only the best setups you should be getting close to 90% win/loss ratio and that is without considering the fact that some of the setups lead to extended moves with multiple opportunities to add.

Hi Td

Good conviction you no it to be true because it is your method same as me and my method I would guess or anybody else who can trade in profit on a consistant basis

this is the hard bit and only practice and your own hard work makes what you say possible and is the / makes the difference imho

If you take only the best setups you should be getting close to 90% win/loss ratio

this ones very hard and you have to stick at it

my own method bare bones is only a little better than 50/50 pure system entry exit

best entries only = discretion = skill = practice = hard work = being wrong = being responsible for own trading decisions = + 90% correct =

och real reason a loss can be hard to take if your right that often = better always have a hard Stop and good work practice imho

Splits not wrong imo td he as taken something you have put forward and is making it is = He as benefited in his own way as have I

Thanks

 

[nunrgguy]

If you're getting a 50% success rate you're doing something wrong.

If you post a typical setup you would have taken and include how you managed the trade, I can advise you.

If you take only the best setups you should be getting close to 90% win/loss ratio and that is without considering the fact that some of the setups lead to extended moves with multiple opportunities to add.

Cheers, will do. I'm not looking at trade management, or even R:R and position size - the last two purely being a mathematical exercise anyway at the moment. What I've been going through is looking for setups, converging factors (if any) and then seeing if the pin would have succeeded or failed - a fail being deemed to be no significant move in the 'right' direction (there would have to be for a feasable R:R) from the pin and/or a total failure of the pin.

 

[nunrgguy]

OK
Here's a few examples
pic 1 & 2 are on the EURUSD. Hourly 29/11/07 01:00 S/R level, pullback. Result - fail.
Pic 3 & 4 EURUSD 13/3/08 09:00 Hourly, possible swing high, also hit bollinger top. Result - fail.

 

[nunrgguy]

Next EURUSD weekly pin, high, looking for a retracement - result depends on how you look at it - if you traded this on the weekly timeframe I would consider it a loss, although there was some gain to be had.

Next, EURUSD hourly huge pin, swing high, bollinger top breached, stoch down, result = success.

 

[brutusdog]

Ok I don't use this method as It doesn't fit with me but you don't appear to be following the guidlines at all....re read the set up.

The pin is the last piece in a well constructed jigsaw...only then will you achive the hit rate of Mr Dante!

 

[nunrgguy]

Which rule am I not following then? Find pivot areas, S/R areas wait for price to hit those areas with a pin, indicating a change in market sentiment, see if there are converging factors - fibs, round numbers etc then enter, ...or enter on a high or low for a retracement.