Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

Usd/Jpy

Daily TF shows a pin bar formed at this pivot.

Is this a good opportunity to buy Dollars and sell Yen?

This might mark the lows in this pair and be the beginning of a trend reversal.

Or it may simply be nothing more than short covering when you consider it is such a key level and we are coming into the weekend. Perhaps on Monday the move down will continue.

Do your analysis, have a plan and act accordingly.

Manage your risk so that if you lose you are still around to take the next good opportunity that the market presents you with.

 

[black bear]

You need to get out more Tom

lol

have a good weekend Tom

and get out more your looking a bit pale, must be the presure playing with the other Big cats

 

[trader_dante]

lol

have a good weekend Tom

and get out more your looking a bit pale, must be the presure playing with the other Big cats

lol I feel burnt out by the weekend!

 

[TraderGreg]

My returns are made from a mixture of markets. I trade almost everything that moves with the exception of shares.

A word of warning though: don't pay too much attention to returns.

Percentage return is very easy to inflate. A friend of mine set up an account with a spreadbet broker that was offering a bonus of £150 free to those who opened accounts with them. He has never placed a trade before in his life and so we decided that I would trade it for him. This was just under five months ago and as of today the account is just shy of £2,350. This equates to a percentage return of 1,345%. It sounds very impressive but it masks a simple truth. The account had minimum margin requirements. For example, minimum trading in the Dax has to be at £3 a point. Therefore with a stop loss of say just 50 points, you are risking 100% of your account on the first trade. And in my opinion, although a system or methodology can give you a significant edge over time, the outcome of any one trade is 50/50 - along with your chance of getting wiped out in this example!

Remember, all you need to do is start with a small amount of money enough times and you can tout an incredible performance ratio. If you start a new account with just $100 each time and trade a full lot ($10 a tick) with a stop of just 10 ticks and go for a home run you will wipe out many times. But of course, if just once you make a 200 pip run (which is fairly likely on something like GBP/JPY) - you can, of course, very legitimately and truthfully say that your return on a new account is 2,000%. Once you then have your $2,100 you can start to trade a little safer but still boast what looks like an incredible return. I am sure many unscrupulous system sellers do this.

The principle is the same with my personal account but not the methodology. I started with a very small amount of money. I had actually wiped my account out at the time and couldn't bear to put much more money in so I started this new way of trading with what I had in my account which was just £63. I have built this up into £1,435 as of today. Since the broker I use lets me trade at small size though, I did not take excessive risk which could have wiped me out from the start.

So, as you can see these are small returns in terms of actual money made despite the fact that the percentage increase is phenomenal!

I have recently reviewed all the trades I have done in my account since starting to use this methodology. From this review I can see that my win/loss ratio is just under 80%.

Losses will be cut very quickly and winners will be left to run until it looks like the move is running out of steam. Naturally, some retracement will be necessary before this is realised. Nonetheless, some of the trades I will show you have incredible risk:reward ratios.

The latest trades I took were in the Bund (German Treasury market) and in Crude Oil. The last setup my methodology generated in the Bund returned a reward of 12 times the risk on the hourly timeframe. (180 ticks reward for a 15 tick risk). In Crude Oil, the method generated a reward of 5 times the risk (362 ticks for a 67 tick risk) This is without adding positions which was also possible.

Hello Td,

I am not a UK resident and in fact I live in Caribbean. Now in the above post you stated that your broker allows you to spread bet in small sizes and your 63 pounds figure seemed rather small. So:

What broker do you use?
Can international residents like me over here use their service?

If not, can you ( or someone else) tell me of a broker that does accept international residents and allow small trading sizes?

Which of the following methods of trading would you consider the best method to trade pin bars with and would seem less complicating and more rewarding when one factors into each trade the broker commission and/or spread size: CFD TRADING or SPREAD BETTING?

The opinions of other T2W members on this thread would be appreciated also!

You can pm me the answer if that is preferred!

Thanks much

TG...

 

[1Pipped]

Hello traderGreg,

I do not know about international customers but I do know that finspreads.com (spreadbetting) allow 10p a point bets for 8 weeks, then it goes up to minimum 50p so good for a testing account. HOWEVER. I would definately not recommend them, at all, ever, to anyone, execution is **** fullstop. So do not use them just because they allow small bets.

Oanda (again I do not know about foreign accounts but they have mine im in uk, so probably will take yours too), also allow small bets infact you can trade 1$/euro/pound/whatever, (that is 1$ not 1$ per point)). Ive only used them for 2 months, but execution has been for me excellent, instant (really instant!), can nopt complain at all, perfect. But they only trade currencies and spot gold and silver.

Alpari UK only do currencies but do take 1000 deals so you can do 1000 eurusd for example, I dont know about international accounts and they seem to have some ongoing problem with connection. I use them off my mobile phone mainly so it might not be them but Orange where the problem is. Although have noticed the connection problem from pc as well, could take 10 mins to get connected.

I opened my alpari account so I could trade small sizes for testing TDs tactics. Put £350 in, a weeks guiness money (I drink fast and **** faster!) and so far risking 3% OR LESS usually less, the account is up 10% after about 4 weeks and 15 deals... lots of break even trades.

I do hope this is a semi useful post to you. Oanda Oanda Oanda.

 

[bansir]

Guess I should get out more too but couldn't resist posting this.
Just lovely examples of S/R+Pivot confluence and price action against them.

Just wish I had been watching it on Friday. Could have gone short with stop just above S1.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[combotrader]

Daily TF shows a pin bar formed at this pivot.

Is this a good opportunity to buy Dollars and sell Yen?

This might mark the lows in this pair and be the beginning of a trend reversal.

Exactly what I was looking at tonight.
This low in ysd/yen has been reached in 04/00/93. Each time, it has bounced off these levels. On weeklies, there is bullish divergence on the indicators - I prefer the 8/12/9 macd.
Fundamentally - who on earth is going to buy dollars ? Who on earth is not deleveraging now ? And that only means yen will get stronger. But technicals vs fundamentals...oh dear, lets leave it at that.

I think a strong green candle tomorrow will encourage all you speculators...

 

[garyfx]

1/3 down 2/3 to go

Just thought I'd let you know that I am on Page 60 and gradually catching up. This thread is a must read for anyone in FOREX, etc. I never really understood why chartists would say price would have to move here before reversing or going higher. I always thought to myself, why just let it go there without taking a trade on it and missing that entire move. Now, I understand what planning a trade and trading a plan is all about. Looking forward to the day that I start having some consistent success at this. Hats off to you T-D, its an excellant read. :smart:

 

[grimweasel]

Excellent pin bar today on Cable at 12:30. There was a large rally then pin bar and a sharp drop after news from the US Fed on the loan stock to be issued.
Went to IG and guess what? The main movers (Gold, USD/JPY, CABLE and Silver) where all blocked with a red cross, ie Market not tradable??
I guess they closed the markets off for some reason (LOST too much in the past hr or too volatile?)
Great, SB companies, you have to love em. Luckily I'm only paper trading this week. TD was correct about the key USD/JPY level, its been supported and my paper trade is up some 120 or so pips!!
Grim

 

[VinceStanzione]

Excellent pin bar today on Cable at 12:30. There was a large rally then pin bar and a sharp drop after news from the US Fed on the loan stock to be issued.
Went to IG and guess what? The main movers (Gold, USD/JPY, CABLE and Silver) where all blocked with a red cross, ie Market not tradable??
I guess they closed the markets off for some reason (LOST too much in the past hr or too volatile?)
Great, SB companies, you have to love em. Luckily I'm only paper trading this week. TD was correct about the key USD/JPY level, its been supported and my paper trade is up some 120 or so pips!!
Grim

I wouldn't be too quick to criticise the SBs on this occassion.

Turf accountants suspend betting on horse-races when one of the runners is suddenly pulled-out before the race commences.

Unexpected news like the US data from above was obviously going to distort the price of dollar-denominated assets - unsurprising they suspended betting to allow re-pricing to occur.

VS

 

[trader_dante]

I wouldn't be too quick to criticise the SBs on this occassion.

Turf accountants suspend betting on horse-races when one of the runners is suddenly pulled-out before the race commences.

Unexpected news like the US data from above was obviously going to distort the price of dollar-denominated assets - unsurprising they suspended betting to allow re-pricing to occur.

VS

True but what is annoying about SB companies is that they don't allow an individual the opportunity to participate in that re-pricing.

In the real market a trader has an opportunity to become the best bid or offer; in spreadbetting you have only a fixed spread to contend with and when even that becomes unavailable it is a real problem.

 

[grimweasel]

I wouldn't be too quick to criticise the SBs on this occassion.

Turf accountants suspend betting on horse-races when one of the runners is suddenly pulled-out before the race commences.

Unexpected news like the US data from above was obviously going to distort the price of dollar-denominated assets - unsurprising they suspended betting to allow re-pricing to occur.

VS

VS!
I thought you'd be too busy this week getting ready for the UK's premier racing event!!
Good winning this week!
Grim

 

[grimweasel]

3 good charts showing Pins off key S/R and Fibs this evening. Seems the news today has projected some forex pairs to levels that may give rise to some profitable trades?
I have enclosed 3 charts with what I think are valid pins?
Grim

 

[grimweasel]

3 good charts showing Pins off key S/R and Fibs this evening. Seems the news today has projected some forex pairs to levels that may give rise to some profitable trades?
I have enclosed 3 charts with what I think are valid pins?
Grim

Sorry wrong chart on GBP/CHF
Enclosed correct one!
DC

 

[atrim]

Pin Bar on GBP/MXN

I've just found this good looking Pin Bar [by accident really] on the 4H chart of GBP/MXN.

 

[rags2riches]

5min pinbar

Hi TD and all,

Attached is a 5min chart of USD/CAD from yesterday with a great pinbar at the time of the news release at 12:30pm.

You have stated that you are looking to move to shorter time frames. Would you have taken this?

I did but my inability to leave my stop alone led to BE not a profit. (This is something I am trying to overcome).

I know news releases are highly unpredictable but I would imagine that stop running would occur in order to hit all the breakout traders. Maybe a strategy could be devised to wait for the stop running to occur (which would show itself as a pinbar, or maybe 2 in both directions) and then trade in the opposite direction to the tail?

 

[TheTick]

I've just found this good looking Pin Bar [by accident really] on the 4H chart of GBP/MXN.

I don't have the 4hr pin - different data feed? I do have one on the daily. Aso, found one on the daily GBP/INR. And now an hourly on USD/JPY although the close is just above the Fib level. Obviously, it's easy to look at it now and say it was a good trade, but I'm just trying to get used to spotting them.

 

[atrim]

Real-time charts in IG Index

I don't have the 4hr pin - different data feed?

Open an IG Index account. You dont need to give them any money.

Then on the main trading screen go to Tools and then Real-time charts. Once in there you can choose 4 hour. See attached pics...

 

[atrim]

Pin Bar on 1H Dow

Just noticed this Pin Bar on Dow 1H. Looks good.

Will keep an eye on it and report back what happens.

 

[atrim]

Pin Bar on 1H Dow cont

As you can see the Dow has been going down since last post. Currently 70 points.