black bear
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guess a square round is out then to
Depth Trade
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I avoid news because it's completely manipulated by Gov. entities that are scamming the postions.
What easier means could they ask for?
That's why the numbers released are constantly re-valued later.
Total BS
What easier means could they ask for?
That's why the numbers released are constantly re-valued later.
Total BS
Depth Trade
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Just think about it, where are they getting money to run there 'Black OPs' ? They can't get it legally, besides the fact that our Gov. is beyond flat broke.
They have two choices: Running cocaine or manipulating the markets.
They have two choices: Running cocaine or manipulating the markets.
mp6140
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IMHO, its not "irrational" but simply another method for quick profits, and thats the job of the intraday trader for institutions, and they do it VERY well, as you can see.
basic rule with news is watch price action BEFORE the release (it will either be moving UP or DOWN and then it STOPS DEAD) If its moving UP, it will continue until it reaches its top resistance area, where it will reverse to the downside enabling the mms to make back what they sold (they also usually have to REPLACE all the shares they sold because most didnt really have the shares to sell, so they get into a NAKED LONG OR SHORT position in the initial rally, and HAVE to cover immediately so as not to get in trouble.
News also follows the basic laws of gravity --- what goes up MUST come back down, and when it comes back down, it is USUALLY right to the pip from where it diverged UP and left the current trend --- its a RARE day that one cannot short a rally at almost any point in its movement and NOT make a profit later that day, or at most, the next day !
While the price is moving up and down, there is a tremendous amount of volitility which often masks whats really happening, but using the H1 chart as your TREND INDICATOR, it becomes difficult NOT to hit the correct directional movement for what you are trading --- if the currency is moving up but the trend is DOWN, yoiu must realize the danger in holding a LONG past resistance, and if you are good you will WAIT until the price reaches resistance, confirm that it moves no higher, and then go SHORT and laugh all the way to the bank !
Real trading is KNOWING and USING the information against the mm's, and not trying to be faster then they are ---- a battle that is difficult if one "stops out" when a trade goes against you without you KNOWING WHERE ITS REALLY TRENDING TO !
mp
If u read my original post carefully my decision to be remain short in my risk analysis was valid. The reality was that the NEWS meant a sudden change of market direction.
My whole point is that in being COMPLETELY IN CONTROL as I was, I was able to do something about it. From my trading desk a potential disaster became a very profitable turnaround.
YOU JUST CANT GET THAT from the outside of the market, you have to be on the inside.
mp6140
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mp6140
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================================================
the problem here Police is in HOW we both look at the market --- I am NOT saying youre incorrect in what you do, but only that i manage to do better with the way i trade.
as i said, i have a 98% (approx) CORRECT AND FILLED trades over a month and a half, and thats in one account which is simply a THROW AWAY HEDGE i play for "beer money"
it would have been 100% CORRECT if i had not simply made a dumb mistake and sold two trades (over a period of a month) by complete accident --- if I can achieve those results consistently, you CANNOT say that im wrong, just that it isnt the method for you !
The way i look at the market is markedly DIFFERENT than most (but not all im sure) and allows me to produce these numbers, through up, down and sideways markets simply because everything i do is with the TREND, or if i take a counter trade to the trend, it is with very good knowledge of the time of day and when and how the market reacts at that time.
IN no way am i saying youre wrong, because in a prop shop one chases the short term, cuts their losses (which i simply state MAY NOT REALLY BE A LOSS, but simply cutting a trade TOO SOON !)
Im simply suggesting you examine the trades you "chopped" and see for yourself if you did that TOO SOON or not !
once you do that, i think you might find some changes in your thoughts, but because of working in that shop, not easily done FOR YOU !
one thing though --- i ASKED you a few questions and a proper answer is NOT that i have a "wildly inaccurate analysis of all 3 points" --- NOT WITH MY TRADING RECORD !
simply answer my questions, as i wish you to examine --- its NOT a pissing contest, just a form of education showing that there are OTHER WAYS of doing well in the marketplace, and that one doesnt need the "latest and greatest" to place trades well !
thanking you in advance for your honest answers, as the charts will show whether youre right or wrong anyway, and i believe, if one looks at the time you are speaking of, you will find what i say to be true, as is what you say true also, based on HOW YOU HAVE TO TRADE !
just pointing out there are OTHER WAYS available, and some of them produce what others might refer to as STAGGERING profits !
Being a yank, i like STAGGERING, in profits and women !
LOL
mp
mp6140
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PRECISELY CORRECT PAUL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NONE of it matters at all, only where the pips end up !
the rest is hyperbole and wasted breath or we can discuss the total amount of angels that are capable of dancing on the head of a pin !
no matter WHAT is behind the moves, IF ONE UNDERSTANDS HOW THE MOVES WORK, THEN PROFIT IS TO BE HAD.
just my humble opinion
(yeah, like im ever humble !)
mp
new_trader
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Chopping a trade too soon is better than chopping it too late. I don't know if you fully appreciate what trading with tight stops actually means. From what you write, I don't think you do. Would I want a trade to move against me 10 points before it finally moves in the direction I had traded? Absolutely not. Surely it would be better to cut it for a 1.75 - 2.00 point loss and reversing the original trade for a 6 -7 point profit. Do you think cutting a trade "too soon" means walking away with a loss and leaving it at that? I don't get you...
mp6140
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NOT IN THE SLIGHTEST DO I SUGGEST THAT NT --- here is how I would trade that situation, but first understand that i have researched the trends and movements of the currency or indiex in question BEFORE i place a single trade.
enter long and "if" (and "if" is very strong if the price has ALREADY HIT RESISTANCE) it turns against me, immediately see where support lies and enter a short, HOLDING THE LONG !
I let the SHORT play out, and then average down the ORIGINAL LONG, because weve hit support and i can see that the price shall move up --- i then make any "trims" to my tp point (often my original tp point changes because of the downside move changing it) and now i HAVE TWO LONGS moving to tp (which, i most humbly must state, invariably come true)
Its a "stategic" method of trading as opposed to just following the bouncing ball, which moves too fast for this old fellow !
the difference between what i do and what you do is simple and brings to mind the old joke about the young bull and the old bull !
up on a hillside, overlooking a valley filled with cows, were two bulls --- an older one and a younger one. The younger one, seeing the veritable "feast" below starts to move towards the valley, yelling back at the older, "lets run down there and knock off a few", to which the OLD bull responds, "lets WALK down there and knock them ALL off !"
I simply prefer to knock them ALL off, both the upside and downside and i rarely fall for a mms "headfake" which is simply designed to get my money, and i DONT like ever giving BACK a single pip if i know i dont have to.
but PLEASE police --- you have STILL not answered my questions.
theyre NOT designed to humiliate or be a pissing match between us --- i simply wish you to see how I TRADE, and WHY i trade that way !
neither of us is wrong --- im simply pointing out, in ANY TIMEFRAME, there is more than one way to kill a cat, and i have many a cat hanging in the freezer, awaiting a chinese cook friend of mine !
enjoy and trade any danged way you wish, but give me the answers please !
mp
new_trader
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Just realised you weren't refering to me about unanswered questions.
I Hope police knows where babies come from.
I Hope police knows where babies come from.
Last edited:
mp6140
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appears to be police and not you, or maybe it was you if you originated this all !
Quote:
Originally Posted by police
If u read my original post carefully my decision to be remain short in my risk analysis was valid. The reality was that the NEWS meant a sudden change of market direction.
indeed you were probably correct but your problem was not in recognizing how close the news WAS and WHEN that impact would come --- for you, being flat would have been the best decision, i would imagine !
My whole point is that in being COMPLETELY IN CONTROL as I was, I was able to do something about it. From my trading desk a potential disaster became a very profitable turnaround.
btw --- Did the price reverse and come to where you would have made profit on those shorts, had they been held ?
BUT, there are TWO things that effect what you did ---- first is the price action prior to the release of the news --- the mms are GIVING away what they will do in advance and if you observe, you will see how you will never have to make that quick a decision again and second, WAS IT INDEED A DISASTER, or would it have turned into a drawdown hold until it came back into profit ?
YOU JUST CANT GET THAT from the outside of the market, you have to be on the inside.
So what im saying is that even WITHOUT that information, the movement of the market will TELL YOU which direction to bet, and we at home will get the MOVEMENT, even if we dont get the INFORMATION immediately.
BUT, on the other hand, i congratulate you for your abilities to execute as quickly as you did --- my question is simply "did you execute a trade that had no need to be executed ?"
not meant in any way to argue, but perchance to point out something you might never have considered, and perhaps ive just given you a VERY valuable tool to hide from the other traders ! (LOL)
SO WHAT IM ASKING, AS SIMPLY AS I CAN, IS DID THE SHORT YOU CUT RETURN TO PROFIT ? NOW IM ASKING IT IN THREE DIFFERENT MANNERS, but theyre all essentially the same ---- WHY would you be short when every indicator was telling you LONG and anyone could tell that the LONG WOULD HAPPEN WITH THE RELEASE OF THE NEWS, not because the news came along and turned your short into a LONG --- you should have been long to begin with, or at the least been FLAT --- WHY WERENT YOU ?
that your speed and having the latest and greatest ALLOWED you to save a part of a trade (that may well have been a correct one in the end) is very nice, BUT WHY WERE YOU IN THAT POSITION TO BEGIN WITH ?
enjoy and trade well
mp
new_trader
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What? Next thing you will be saying is "everything is known in advance" and "we" all know that only GOD knows these things.
mp6140
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WELL KNOW --- i guess we are getting to "how many angels . . . . . . . .
if you had read ANYTHING i have posted, you would see a proveable and concise method of understanding WHERE the price shall go when news is released, NO MATTER WHAT THE NEWS REALLY IS !
its been stated, proven and constantly proves its correct because its based on HOW THE MARKET OPERATES and not how we would WISH it to operate.
Its so relatively simple to understand (i do after all, and i only consider myself a "competent" trader at best !) that to argue and not just look at a chart, is doing a tremendous dis - service to yourself and your trading, especially as pertains to news !
I wouldnt be telling you to check out something so easily observed if i were not correct, otherwise i would be placing myself in a position to be laughed off this site, and if you notice i have NOT YET BEEN LAUGHED OFF OF IT !
JUST LOOK --- ANYONE WITH EYES CAN SEE IT !
mp
new_trader
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Yes, it's all about understanding. :smart:
