Lost Trading

sun123 said:
dbphoenix

Yes, that must be it, no plan. I thought I had some kind of plan, but looking back I guess not. I will take on board what you say

Thanks

Sun

Do you know how to create a trading plan?
 
please - dont do it for me - do it 4 your self....

STOP FUKIN SPREAD BETTING! i really cant emphasize that strongly enuff

dont give me this 'its tax free' sh!t - cos u only tax profits - so it dont concern u yet ;)

trading is hard work as profitable traders know. WHY MAKE IT HARDER FOR YOUR SELF? spread betting is GAMBLING not TRADING. you are a GAMBLER because despite losing so much, you can not stop yourself. may be u need some help - i hope its not gone that far yet.

u can make it trading (yes YOU!) but only if u really want it. if you are serious abou this u will close your spreadbetting account TODAY!

the next thing u should do is learn how to be patient.

when u have learnt to trade, 10k will soon turn into 20k to 50k.....

its up 2 u now. r u serious about this?
 
Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
- A. Dude -


Thomas Edison
 
Sun,

1)Stop trading for atleast six months (clear your head), dont even paper trade, just watch the markets.
2)Find a Job

Ive been in the same situation as you except it was probably much worse for me (as i had BIG mortage and a family to support too).
 
Thirteen said:
STOP FUKIN SPREAD BETTING! i really cant emphasize that strongly enuff
However emphatically and forcefully you express it, 13, there are other opinions as well, and they may be no less valid than yours. There are people here who have consistently made a living from spreadbetting over many years. I'm one of them and I'm by no means alone. The tax situation, though quickly significant to anyone having reasonable success, is not the only relevant factor. I don't propose yet again to embark on an exhaustive and exhausting discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages, because it's all been done to death elsewhere, but I don't like to leave such strongly expressed opinions unchallenged even by mentioning that they are no more than a point of view, however widely or narrowly held by members who sometimes post here rather vociferously.
 
I'd have to say look into the psychological aspects of trading as a big priority. (no matter what money management or method you have in place you will have a better chance of longevity if you have the mindset to cope with executing,losses and profits.)
money management
method.

all of that should be studied in depth, this can often take years and there is strong debate in how the 3 sub headings above rank in order of importance and its very difficult to explain in detail in a thread as after a few years you know theres a lot of information to immerse a person into and of course you yourself will have to take the steps .

If you want to still trade and learn at least take a few months out, split your capital 3 ways and trade with your 1st capital, ie $12,333 risk no more than 1% = $123 per trade, ideally 1-2/3 risk reward scenario. example $3 40 pip stop on euro /dollar with expected return of 80 pips the euro/dollar forex has historic volatility of .6% implying daily range of 76 odd pipps to expect 80 in day is , well superstardom off the planet, 30% of a days range is **** hot.. ie 23 pips implying appx. 8/12 pip risk reward situation.. tight stops some might say bloody huge for others, but thats for the individual to become knowledgeable and comfortable with mentally. is intra day suitable for you ? what market ? why ? trade less often, they say markets spend 15% up 15% down the rest well rangebound/sideways tight days 3 days out of ten good trending days maybe up or down, can we spot them..?? do we know ?? well yeah easy with hindset and maybe with a tight market for 4 days then today must ? be the trendie day.... ?? food for thought maybe..

Im assuming nothing of your knowledge here/do likewise with me , so Im keeping it stupid simple.. but your market is something you must find out for yourself aswell, .will the market have the range neccessary to deliver against the risk you are willing to assume etc..? whilst reading up on the subject, watch "A" market to find selective oportunites ... (dont we all try and do that :) )

so much to learn, I'm still niave in many areas, take your time..... study and maybe use a demo account until you decide your ready for another attempt....

ask members on this board about a trading mentor or courses some are offering fee based, I cant comment on them but they might be a good option?

but there are no shortcuts, you could have the worlds best tell you exactly what to do when to do it, but when your on your own in front of the screen, thats when you start to begin to learn, or suffer too much emotional trauma with the experience.

I dont know what books you have read, but i found douglas -disciplined trader and elder- come into my trading room (jolly read with practical advice ) as pointers for you mental insights...
again book reading good books, all subjective, but i'd say those ask others for opinions too....

finally.... most if not all have felt that gut wrenching/physical effects of trading with emotion neccessary maybe.... but we are human. Try not to beat yourself up over it as you go.

finally again are you passionate about trading ? Neccessary to drive you on through your early years with bugger all to show for it except lots of opportunities for self examination if you are lucky.

very best
jd.

All Just my subjective opinion Sun , but find out for yourself.
 
exit on strength

ERA said:
I've been doing some thinking and changes to my trading over the year, I think one of the biggest problems with trading is that when following even a good trading plan traders are almost always EXITING trades on price weakness.

An example if you go long a market and it goes against you ie weakness you get stopped out .

Even if the trade goes your way and you trail your stop that stop will always be hit on weakness as the price retraces from higher prices and larger profits.
Often giving back a lot of profit. I have changed my strategies to try and take profits only on strength, I think it is the main reason for turning my trading around.

ERA, thanks for mentioning this. I was just asking myself about it this morning. I'm just starting to make a trading plan for myself and have been paper trading for about 6 months. My trading arrangement is intraday - not scalping, but not holding anything over night either. I'm starting to have a decent understanding of TA, chart patterns, entry points and money management. - But I'm still pretty clueless about when to take the profits and when to stay in. I've started trading less and my entries are better, but that old saying about "let your winner's run" is really only true if your trade is running, *leaping* away from your break even point. After you've got a good cushion in there, then you can sell part and let the other part run through the retracements for a good position trade. This morning I started adding up all the pips that could have been in my pocket *if* I had closed my positions half on strength, then the other half of the position at b.e.. - amazing - it would have made my morning nicely profitable instead of a small loss. My money management was working the way I want - no big losses, but the commission/spread keeps chipping away. I haven't developed the exit part of my trading plan yet, and this is the next area I am going to study.

JO
 
JumpOff said:
I'm just starting to make a trading plan for myself and have been paper trading for about 6 months

JO

Why are you trading if you have no plan?
 
The official reason:
Paper trading is my way of watching the markets - Learning the patterns, understanding what is meant by resistance, support, trendlines. Some people can just read a book, or perhaps watch someone else do it, by I find I assimilate this material best by doing. Having a little skin in the game (even if it is fake) concentrates my interest and is a constant reminder that recognizing price action in real time takes some skill that I don't have yet. Everyone is an expert when they look back at a chart with hindsight - my gawd, it's so easy to see what should be done - it looks like any idiot could make thousands every day! HA!.

I like using a simulator and then printing the image of what I did and journaling an analysis of why I traded, was it successful, was it dumb, - how to recognize the higher probability entry positions. It is both embarrassing and useful to look back on some of my earlier journal entries, and it is a pleasure to see that I am losing money waaaaaay more slowly that when I started. I assume this trend will continue. The pieces of my trading plan will come together like a jigsaw puzzle and this will all start to make sense. It sure doesn't yet! I will eventually learn enough to make my account go positive, stay there and increase and after several months of that I will give myself permission to open a small account so I can try out my trading plan with some real nickels.

The truth:
I paper trade because it is fun, and it keeps my head on straight about how much I have to learn. It is a constant reminder not to open an account with real money in it!

JO
 
sun,

I think it would be an idea to scale your trading down in terms of size, it is a lot less stress dealing with smaller numbers, requires more patience, but in most cases you won't be consistent with the bigger numbers until you are consistent with the smaller numbers. Losing 9k on one trade with an account size of 50k = 20% loss. far too much. you said you try and keep you losses to 3%. There is no room for flexibility here, if thats what you are supposed to do then that is what you must do, no what ifs, or maybe i'll let it run etc, etc. the inevitable will happen and psychologically it will take longer to get over because you KNEW what you had to do to avoid it. this negative feeling brings on other negative feelings and your error rate will increase.

scale it down, be consistent, get confident. don't beat yourself up about the past.

good luck with it

DIN
 
Also, 13 is right. SB is good for training but not much else IMHO ( I know roberto disagrees). Spreads as you know are killer and you are not just playing against the market you are paying against the house.
 
DIN said:
Also, 13 is right. SB is good for training but not much else IMHO ( I know roberto disagrees). Spreads as you know are killer and you are not just playing against the market you are paying against the house.

SB can work profitably long-term.
The issue here is "context".
We know what the spreads are. Around 5 pts to about 8.
BUT, you trade using the appropriate style.
Day-trading - the spreads will kill you long-term, as the potential ranges are too great as a proportion of the potential profit.
BUT;
Swing-trading ( multi-day ), the spreads become a smaller proportion of the potential profit.
SB CAN work, as long you use the appropriate mechanism for the style, and you trade a recognised pattern.

Thirteen described SB as gambling. I have to disagree. Gambling is a state of mind. Trading without a plan, or logic to the trades.
( bear in mind, there are "preofessional" gamblers, who consistently win money. This is because they have a plan, understand the probabilities, and know when to fold when the odds are against them )
 
trendie said:
Thirteen described SB as gambling. I have to disagree. Gambling is a state of mind. Trading without a plan, or logic to the trades.
( bear in mind, there are "professional" gamblers, who consistently win money. This is because they have a plan, understand the probabilities, and know when to fold when the odds are against them )

Hi trendie, surely this is a contradiction in terms. On the one hand you say that trading without a plan, logic etc is gambling, and on the other you refer to professional gamblers who have a plan, understand probabilities etc.

I have become amused by the multitude of traders who are incensed at the idea that trading can be referred to as gambling, and in truth when I first started out i used to be one of them, I would go to great lengths to explain why trading and gambling were NOT the same thing. I would listen to much more informed and experienced traders and pick up their arguments and adopt them for myself. But after a while I started to take these arguments apart and analyse them. My conclusion, trading is gambling what ever way you slice it. You place money in pursuit of an outcome that is far from certain in search of profit.

Look at the everyday terms applied in trading.........win,...loss,.....odds,......probability,.....risk,.....reward, sound familiar?
My view is that if one accepts that it is gambling, akin to your "professional gamblers" then you go a long way to conquering the psychological side of trading. Obviously this is all my very humble opinion and no doubt will upset many traders, but give it some thought. I cannot see why the term gambling should be viewed as so abhorrent.
 
trendie said:
Thirteen described SB as gambling. I have to disagree. Gambling is a state of mind. Trading without a plan, or logic to the trades.
( bear in mind, there are "preofessional" gamblers, who consistently win money. This is because they have a plan, understand the probabilities, and know when to fold when the odds are against them )

I see where you're coming from and there is some truth in what this.

However, I must say I tend to agree that SB is gambling. After all the clue is in the name! Why dont they call it Spread Trading? Because you're not trading you are Betting (gambling)

For those who dont know the difference here it is:

When I enter a trade it may not work in my favour. However, I have the opportunity to get out of that trade with a small profit or a small loss as soon as this condition registers. The SB doesn't have this opportunity. He has already thrown his money down the loo as soon as he pulled the chain (err I mean pulled the trigger). So the trader has the ability to manage his trade and his money according to the prevailing market conditions. He can react accordingly. The SB cant. He has already thrown his ego into the pit of wolves.

Any profitable trader will tell you one thing. He doesn't know what the next tick will be, let alone where price will be in 5 minutes or 5 days. BUT he does have an edge that tells him there is a probability of something happening to his favour. If that edge doesn't plan out then he can go on a damage limitation exercise. The SB doesn't have this luxury. He gambles on market direction. He also has a massive spread to contend with that puts him behind even more.

So, in short, the trader trades an edge. The spreadbetter takes a gamble on market direction. MASSIVE difference.

I only know of one person on these boards (he rarely posts these days - a great shame) who I actually believe makes money spread betting. I believe him because he used to be a market maker for 18 years in the City and has kept in touch with his mates. Therefore, when they have a market moving order on their books, he knows about it and takes his bet accordingly. Therefore, as a ex-market maker he actually understands trading and what edge is. He makes sure he has the edge over the spread betting shop. I'm afraid all others - unless they can explain their edge, and claims to make a living from SB I simply do not believe and I write them off as an ego that should be ignored at all costs. Think about it - all knowledgeable people know as soon as people start becoming consistently profitable at SB, then the SB company starts widening the spread and insisting you call in orders etc - in other words increasing the edge in their favour.

Do you ever hear Warren Buffet, George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones or any of the other greats talking about SB? Get real!
 
We were talking about SB at our Sussex traders meet last night, and as Bored put it, "Would you bet on a horse if you knew that the bookie was also the jockey ?" Sort of sums it up nicely I think.

rog1111
 
I accept my post was contradictory. :eek:

The point I was trying to make ( unsuccessfully ), was that gamblers rely on hope, luck, and wishfulness.
Traders identify the probability of eventualities, and assess the risk, and place their trade ( bet ), accordingly. They assess the point at which their assessment has failed, and take their losses.
( rather than cross heir fingers and hope it will come back to their advantage ).
Gamblers risk almost indiscriminately.
Traders may place an amount to trade ( bet ) in accordance to probabilities, and so on.

SB: I understood that the word "betting" ( non-taxable ) was merely to distinguish this from trading ( taxable ).
Since the SB prices reflect the underlying, it is not different from trading, conceptually.
If you can identify the direction of price movement, you will make money, whether you spread-BET, or TRADE.

Please forgive my posts if they are sometimes vague, during trading-hours Most of my attention is on my charts !!

Hope you all had a good and profitable day today.
 
rog1111 said:
We were talking about SB at our Sussex traders meet last night, and as Bored put it, "Would you bet on a horse if you knew that the bookie was also the jockey ?"
I certainly wouldn't.

But if I know that all my positions are layed off by the SB broker and that he makes his living just from the spread, and if I get better customer service from him than I ever did with direct access dealing, and if his spreads are small enough (where on earth did the '5 - 8 points' quoted above come from?!), that's a whole different matter.

As inevitably happens, such threads (understandably, because they start, directly or indirectly, with someone asking for help) attract people wanting to present their views, sometimes people with very strong opinions and obviously not all that much experience, who want to shout and swear. It then becomes completely riddled with factual inaccuracies, which are not even theories or opinions, really, just people's points of view dressed up as fact.

The one thing you can be pretty sure of is that people with such strong views are never going to admit any possibility that they might be mistaken, ill-informed or out of date, anyway, so I'll bow out of it now (just waiting for anley to appear and say "Running away again?"!!) rather than to continue to irritate anyone by challenging their views with the facts, as I have done so exhaustively and exhaustingly in other threads.
 
Roberto said:
(where on earth did the '5 - 8 points' quoted above come from?!)

Whoops ! I am so fixated on the Dow, thats all I see. ( another example of me writing faster than I can think )

Roberto, readers can distinguish between other posters opinions and the facts, and sift.

I admire your counterbalancing of the more outlandish posts, and hope you will remain.

Has the originator of this thread gleaned anything of note so far ?
 
trendie said:
Whoops ! I am so fixated on the Dow, thats all I see.
Sorry, Trendie, wasn't having a go at you at all! :) By "bow out of it" I only meant this thread, for the moment. Apologies to all if I sounded "in a huff", just call me a pedantic cantankerous old b....... . I just think SB can sometimes be better all round, even for Forex, than many other options, and I get too quickly irritated when people's opinions for advising others are sometimes based on mistaken beliefs. I'll get over it. :)
 
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