lets define the correct yardstick

[contrakt]

Preparation/Postanalysis Jan 4

-economic calender
Redbook 8:55
and Factory orders 10:00

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas SMH and related markets
reaction areas SMH and related markets
SMH=INTC=QQQQ
38.60=26.20=41.80=r2
38.40=25.80=41.60=r1
37.80=25.40=41.20=s1
37.60=25.20=40.80=s2

choppy day only 3 opportunities.
take especially care with entry right after economic news. today at 10:03:07.

 

[contrakt]

Preparation/Postanalysis Jan 5

Variable Cost of Business=VCB
VCB=Initial risk-premium+Transaction costs+Slippage
Transaction costs+Slippage=3c

-economic calendar7:30
8:30
10:00 * 2
10:30
-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas SMH and related markets
SMH=INTC=QQQQ
38.80=26.20=42.00=r2
38.60=26.00=41.80=r1
37.80=25.60=41.20=s1
37.60=25.40=41.00=s2

dont forget the importance of:
-live stops, overnight-cash, sizing, time, timing
-avoid getting sucked in to trading noise and scatters
-avoid going long/short into strong R/S
-context in which a hammer is formed

Does SMH signal cluster shows strength:
1-potential QQQQ/INTC does facilitate
2-momentum QQQQ/INTC does facilitates
3-SMH is clearly in escape from recent dominant noise
4-nq book orders, speed and s+r's does confirms

(economic) news-I deem important- can course volatile jitters.
I need highly predictable moves so I have do all that is neccessarry to avoid trading choppiness and to stay
focused on:
-developing a filter on mcdm's to objectively get clearcut, smooth promising opportunities
-time stable entries, to stay out of chop enties and to effectively use the cost of business

new rule:
dont open new position a half hour or less prior to scheduled (economic) news.

Whit this rule in mind trading started Thursday jan-5 on 10:30.
I see 8 micro clear directional moves (mdcm) at:

mcdm 1: 10:30
Potential
Reason
Enter short on third down bar bo below last swl 10:10 at 38.73. qqqq and intc confirm. NQ?
Enter sell-stop at 38.72ish, target 38.52, reward 20c.

IStops:
IStops1: 38.78 at H third down bar+0.01
CB1=3+6=9c
IStops2: 38.81 at H second down bar+0.01
CB2=3+9=12c
Average CB=(12+9)/2=10.5
Potential:Average CB=20:10.5=1.9
Reason
enter short on third down bar bo below swl from 10:10 at 38.73. 2 down bar intent manifest. confirm signal clusters from qqqq and intc. Dont recall what important NQ was doing.
Result
low at 38.59. move 13 cents. So untouched trailings stops should earn average 2.5 cents a Lott if position was equally divides between Istop1 and 2.

mcdm 2:10:58
Potential
If enter buystop at 38.76 then target at 38.86 for 10c.

IStops:
IStops1: 38.70 at L second up bar-0.01
CB1=3+6=9c
IStops2: 38.67.
CB2=3+9=12c

Average CB=(12+9)/2=10.5
Potential:Average CB=10:10.5<1

Reason
enter long on second bar bo above 9:42 swh of 38.75.
1 up bar intent manifest. confirm signal clusters from qqqq and intc not strong. Dont recall what important NQ was doing.

mdcm 3: 11:20
Potential
If enter buystop at 38.87ish then potential 25c.
IStops:
IStops1: 38.80 at low second up bar.
CB1=3+7=10c
IStops2: 38.81 at H second down bar+0.01
CB2=3+9=12c
Average CB=(10+11)/2=11
Potential:Average CB=25:11=2.27
Reason
enter third up bar bo above H today 38.86.
2 up bar intent manifest. confirm signal clusters from qqqq
weak and intc strong. Dont recall what important NQ was doing.
Result
high at 39.13. move 26 cents. So untouched tralings stops would have earned a average 12.5 cents a Lott with equally divides position between Istop1 and 2.

mcdm 4: 12:34
Potential
enter sellstop at 38.93ish.with target 38.86 for only 7c.

mcdm 5:13:09
Potential
If enter buystop at 38.92ish then potential 21c.

IStops:
IStops1: 38.85 at L first up bar.
CB1=3+7=10c
IStops2: 38.83 at L first up bar+0.01
CB2=3+9=12c

Average CB=(10+11)/2=11
Potential:Average CB=21:11=1.91

Reason
enter second up bar bounce of S of H today 38.86.
1 hammer intent manifest. confirm signal clusters from qqqq weak and intc strong. Dont recall what important NQ was doing.

Result: high 39.00. move 8 cents. So untouched trailings stops would have earned a average -3 cents a lott with equally divides position between Istop1 and 2.


mcdm 6:13:46
Potential
If enter buystop at 39.00ish then potential only 13c.

mcdm 7:14:23
If enter sellstop at 38.93ish then potential only 7c.

mcdm 8:14:34
Potential
If enter buystop at 38.94ish then potential 19c.
IStops:
IStops1: 38.85 at L first up bar.
CB1=3+9=10c
IStops2: 38.83 at L first up bar+0.01
CB2=3+11=14c
Average CB=(10+11)/2=12
Potential:Average VCB=19:12=1.58
Reason
enter second up bar on second bounce of S 38.86.
1 up bar intent manifest. confirm signal clusters from qqqq
and intc negative /weak. Dont recall what important NQ was doing.
Result
high 39.06. move 12 cents. So untouched tralings stops would have earned a average -0 cents a lott with equally divides position between Istop1 and 2.

From the 8 mcdm's 4 had potential:average VCB>1,5 with result of aproximately (2,5+12,5-3-0)/4 of 3 cents per trade per lott.
I clearly underestimated the potential of trade 2. A macro and micro higher low in setup 2, and a break of a earlier high that day
on a day where prices stayed above yesterdays high in this case resulted in a result on setup of 34c.

I need higly predictable moves so I have do all that is neccesarry to avoid trading choppiness.

 

[contrakt]

Preparation/Postanalysis Jan 6

-economic calender
8:30

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas SMH and related markets
SMH==INTC==QQQQ
======26.80=42.20=r2
39.13==26.60=42.00=r1
38.80==26.20=41.80=s1
38.60==26.00=41.60=s2

General observations:
Because of Job, Ican only play the open. on Friday. This friday I wasonly focused on fixed range bars it took me an 12 minutes my charts werent recieving qoutes. While I could see through the orderbook that the market playing one of the main scenario's I had prepared for.
it is eminent to have a real-time chart with functioning real-time backfill

Its saturday and having read my post-analysis of jan 5 I see there is room for improvement.
Improvements for post analysis(staring now):
a-fully incorporate pre analysis in post analysis
b-streamline post analysis in following format:
Reason/Scenario
Potential:Average VCB
Result
Lesson

With all this in mind Ill look at the 4 snapshot moments during jan-6.
mcdm 1] at 9:45
Reason/Scenario
-reason: bo beneath local swl of 3940 2 bars ago. opening well above yH and todays r1. Confirmed by QQQQ/INTC.
-scenario: anticipating downmove with test yH or a reversal into yesterdays range
Potential:Average VCB
Potential: Average VCB= 26c : 10.5c> 2
Result
with istops at 39.44 and 39.49 the theoretical result of:
-in case of buystop, when stops are adjusted past last swh: range 26-32c.
-with trail stops the result would have been about break even.
Lesson
auto trailing stops > xyz1 to faccilitate categorie of immediate satisfaction moves
nomal stoporders placed past last swp could also be made appropiate for more noisy runs

see tekst box at 11: 28 rule: never play V-reversal without solid S+R

mcdm 2] at 11:03
Reason/Scenario
-reason: example of low potential bo into noisy S. Not confirmed by QQQQ/INTC.
-scenario: ----

mcdm 3] at 11:26
Reason/Scenario
-reason: bo above yH, earlier failled attemp and solid R below. Confirmed by QQQQ/INTC.
-scenario: test of tH
Potential:Average VCB
Potential: Average VCB= 45c : 12.5c>> 2
Result
with istops at 39.11 and 39.09 the theoretical result of
in case of buystop, when stops are adjusted past last swh: range 18c.
with auto trail stops at these the result would have been at best 23c.
Lesson
auto trail and/or a regular stop orders?
3mcandle aside the fixed range chart to pinpoint price accelrations and timestops

mcdm 4] at 13:10
Reason/Scenario
-reason: bo last local swl. confirm by down of 2 candele pulback QQQQ/INTC in chop.
-scenario: test down to yH
Potential:Average VCB
Potential: Average VCB= 22c 10c> 2
Result
with istops at 39.41 and 39.44 the theoretical result of
in case of buystop, when stops are adjusted past last swh: range -10c.
with auto trail stops at these the result would have been at best -8c.
Lesson
..........

mcdm 5] at 13:53
Could not have played this
Reason/Scenario
-reason: Could not have played this because it was an afternoon before a freeday.

in trades1, 3 and 4 the r1 of SMH for today was of key consideration.

For next week:
-incorporate pre analysis real time (next week)
-record important signals + toughts real time
-weekend: make pre-post anlysis plan for next week activities, timeline and hours workload
-make separation between hindsight paper trades, real time paper trades and real time $ trades
-update plan for all essentials so far

 

[contrakt]

mo jan 9

-economic calender
nihil

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas
SMH
=====r2
39.50=r1
39.13=s1
39.00=s2

INTC
26.80=r2
26.60=r1
26.20=s1
26.00=s2

QQQQ
=====r2
42.80=r1
42.40=s1
42.20=s2

 

[contrakt]

Tue Jan 10

-economic calender
~:Redbook 8:55 ET
~:Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas
SMH
=====r2
39.50=r1
39.13=s1
39.00=s2

 

[contrakt]

We Jan 11

-economic calender
~:EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas(9/10 jan not correc)

SMH
=====r2
39.95=r1
39.50=s1
39.13=s2

INTC
===
26.60=r2
26.40=r1
26.00=s1
25.80=s2

QQQQ
=====r2
43.00=r1
42.60=s1
42.20=s2

observations: last days substantial and important hammer at S or R can be first bar same color bar. 9 and 10 where very choppy and not mutch time to analyse these days properly. Go back and look.

Fixed bar lenght at 7c for smh/qqqq/intc and
5min candle chart smh for:
-timing length restperiods/bases
-relative starts of break aways
-possebilty of sharp timestops

smh in base/range s1-r1 for 2 days.

 

[contrakt]

Thu Jan 12

-economic calender
*:Import and Export Prices 8:30 ET
*:International Trade 8:30 ET
*:Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areas
SMH
=====r2
40.35=r1
40.10=s1
39.83=s2

INTC
===
26.50=r2
26.35=r1
26.10=s1
25.90=s2

QQQQ
=====r2
43.30=r1
43.05=s1
42.97=s2

mcdm# underneath intra-day chart:
1:
reason : bounce of S at 39.83 and strong intc/qqq weak
scenario: target RS at 40.35
potential:risk: 33c:14c>2

result:
33c if sellstop at 39.91 and adustments beneath swl
minor loss if trail < 12c
minor win if trail > 12c and <15c
33c if trail > 12c and >15c

lesson:
in this trade trailstop is inferior
dont forget importance of S

2:
reason : bounce of S at 39.83 and bo> swh, strong intc/qqq weak

scenario: target RS at 40.35
potential:risk: 28c:14c>2

result:
28c if sellstop at 39.91 and adustments beneath swl
minor win if trail > 12c and <15c
28c if trail > 12c and >15c


3:
low potential
be if trailstop sellstop at 39.91 and adustments beneath swl

for break back into range 39.85-40.35, watch QQQQ/and intc have dificulty with recent S.

4/7: difficulty with R, more attempts and higher low while QQQQ/intc
remain negative weak, not able to break R

8:
reason:break last swl, after lower high. Intc broke important S and qqqq also strong
scenario target 39.83.
potential:risk 73c 12c>2

9: same as 8 lower potential
small support at 40,35 didnt form an obstacle

Streamline pre post analyses.

In weekend, prior to trading week:
-plan economic + earnings calender next week
-make post analysis friday
-review all relevant recorded events and thoughts last (trading) week
-pre-market analysis for monday
-with regards to other activities, plan trading
schedule next week

Weekday:

 

[contrakt]

Fri Jan 13

-economic calender
*roducer Price Index 8:30 ET
*:Retail Sales 8:30 ET
~:Business Inventories 10:00 ET

-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areasSMH
40.60=r2
40.40=r1
39.83=s1
39.50=s2

INTC
===
26.50=r2
26.10=r1
26.90=s1
=====s2

QQQQ
43.30=r2
43.10=r1
42.80=s1
42.60=s2

 

[contrakt]

prep tues jan 17

-economic calender

Industrial Production
* 9:15 ET


-company earnings
nihil

-reaction areasSMH
40.50=r2
40.00=r1
39.53=s1
39.00=s2

INTC
====
26.20=r2
26.00=r1
25.60=s1
25.20=s2

QQQQ
=====
=====r2
43.25=r1
42.75=s1
42.50=s2

didnt find time to collect data
noisy day

 

[contrakt]

week capacity plan prep-realtime and postanalyse

w m t w t f
===========================================================
prep 30 30 30 30 30
t_morning 9:40-12:00 120
t_lunch 12:00-14:00 120 120 120 120
t_afternoon14:00-15:30 90 90 90 90
post 60 30 30 30
===========================================================
Total min 90 270 270 270 240 120= 1260
Total hr 1.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 2.0= 21.0

 

[contrakt]

monday 23-jan-06

Monday

Economic agenda
10:00

Earnings
Txn/ amc


SMH
R2=39
R1=38.54=yH
S1=37.24=yL
S2=36.5

 

[contrakt]

Tuesday 24 jan

Tuesday

Economic agenda
7:45 ET
8:55 ET
9:00 ET
10:00 ET

SMH reaction areas
R2=38.5
R1=38
S1=37
S2=36.6

make pertinent prep of smh today right before monitoring the market for trades
taking into account:
-overnight, if trading is from the open
-intraday of today

watch the intermarket component with the freshest news for the initiative

R2=38.5
R1=38
S1=37
S2=36.6

 

[contrakt]

Wensday 25-jan

Wensday

Economic agenda
7:00 ET
10:00 ET
10:30 ET

SMH
R2=39
R1=38.6
S1=37.1
S2=36.5

 

[contrakt]

Thursday 26-jan

Thursday

Economic agenda
8:30 ET*2
10:00 ET
10:30 ET

SMH
R2=39
R1=38.6
S1=37.1
S2=36.5

 

[contrakt]

Friday 27-jan

Friday

Economic agenda8:30 ET
10:00 ET

SMH
R2=39
R1=38.6
S1=37.1
S2=36.5

 

[contrakt]

bo in target market underpinned by intermarket correlation

Concepts to be refined iterative until sufficiently profitable

1-scoping

2-pre market, real time, post market

3-timing, sizing and protection

4-statistical modelling
4-business rules optimizing
4-testing
4-performance
4-feedback

 

[contrakt]

Succes

If A is success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut.
Albert Einstein, Observer, Jan. 15, 1950

 

[contrakt]

Inspiring

Everything that is really great and inspiring is created by the individual who can labor in freedom.
Albert Einstein, 'Out of My Later Years,' 1950

 

[contrakt]

Silence

In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.
Martin Luther King Jr.

 

[contrakt]

The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
Martin Luther King Jr., Strength to Love, 1963