Learning to trade from youtube

[forker]

So do you have a strategy to trade fibs BJ

 

[the hare]

Fibonacci levels. I plotted a couple randomly and what I saw was astonishing. This stuff has significance !

You plotted a couple, and concluded that they where significant.

Perhaps you should try plotting a couple of million, over multiple markets and decades of data before jumping to conclusions. If you are to idle or stupid to do that, research academic literature, its been done to death.

If this where a trading site I'd post up some stats of my own that quite clearly proves that these levels are no more significant than randomly selected levels, and if you read around, you'll find that there are dozens of studies that discovered exactly the same thing.

And as for things in nature complying to fib ratios, that's absolute bollox too, and its been debunked time after time.

but thanx 4 d lulz

 

[Pat494]

How is the trading going Joe ?

Making any money ?

That's the acid test

 

[toposwope]

I would like to thank the OP for the info here. I now have a loaded shotgun propped up next to my desk in case of any new 'hostile trends'

 

[BeginnerJoe]

So do you have a strategy to trade fibs BJ

No. I don't trade the fibs since I only learnt it maybe 10 hours ago. I don't need fibs to trade. But fibs is a very useful addition.

You plotted a couple, and concluded that they where significant.

Perhaps you should try plotting a couple of million, over multiple markets and decades of data before jumping to conclusions. If you are to idle or stupid to do that, research academic literature, its been done to death.

If this where a trading site I'd post up some stats of my own that quite clearly proves that these levels are no more significant than randomly selected levels, and if you read around, you'll find that there are dozens of studies that discovered exactly the same thing.

And as for things in nature complying to fib ratios, that's absolute bollox too, and its been debunked time after time.

but thanx 4 d lulz

Things in nature do not comply to anything, likewise the market does not comply to anything (less the intermittent manipulations that follow specific distinctively artificial rules). So you are looking at things from the wrong angle. I reckon fibs is an approximation of things in nature, but does not govern them. It gives a useful average. As you know, trading is all about averages. Your need for the market to fit your exact 'scientific' formulas is where you are going wrong. Even though trees fit a general average, each one is different. Likewise in the market, moves fit a general average, but each move is different.

Thanks for your research into fibs, we are now safely assured it's no worst than any other lines. So the fibs is not detrimental compared to any other lines we choose to use. It's a matter of perspective. You see a half empty cup, and I see a half full one. I reckon the market has taken its toll on you. It has yet to do the same to me, and it's not going to because I know what the true nature of it is.

From your posts, you exhibited occasional flashes of recognition for the market's true nature. I am now more inclined to think you still haven't got it. Although you see recurances of vaguely familiar patterns in every part of the market, you have not been able to put them together and come to the realisation the same force is acting behind all of them. The true nature of the market is explained in no uncertain terms in some of these videos, and I am not going to say which. Therein lies the money, the pips, the mother lode. All you need to do is reach in and get some. Or you can carry on with your lulz and continue your odyssey of thrashing around surfacing occasionally to say "WTF, what's the rulez ?" The rulez, my friend, is staring you right in the face. But you cannot see it because you want it to be an artificial construct.

How is the trading going Joe ?

Making any money ?

That's the acid test

So you want a statement but too embarrassed to ask ? My trading is going on schedule. Anything I chose to call out worked reasonably well in the overall context. I think I am a tiny bit beyond the brink. You might call it a budding edge.

I would like to thank the OP for the info here. I now have a loaded shotgun propped up next to my desk in case of any new 'hostile trends'

Your approach is wrong. A hostile trend has a bigger gun than you. So the correct approach is to relocate your desk and leave your shotgun behind. Every second saved translates into real pips.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Mike Baghdady is probably one of the most maligned "trainers" by people on this forum. He appeared in practically every joke. That got me interested. I did a quick search on youtube. But couldn't find any videos where he said he could make 300%/500%/1000% in 1 minute/5 minutes/1 hour/1 day/1 week. Instead I found on his own site some training videos. Theses were technical in nature and devoid of any marketing (not withstanding any indicators he might be sellling). In the first couple, he explained the high probability entry strategy he used. It is quite rational, and would make a reasonable base to build on for those who might be thrashing around.

These videos can be viewed from his site directly or using the VLC player.

http://www.trainingtraders.com/TT2/flash_objects/Part1.flv
http://www.trainingtraders.com/TT2/flash_objects/Part2.flv
http://www.trainingtraders.com/TT2/flash_objects/Part3.flv
http://www.trainingtraders.com/TT2/flash_objects/Part4.flv
http://www.trainingtraders.com/TT2/flash_objects/Part5.flv

 

[Pat494]

Did you latch onto that elephant bar at 8.00 am , Joe !!
Oliver Velez would be proud of you if you did, I t'ink !

 

[Pat494]

Did you latch onto that elephant bar at 8.00 am , Joe !!
Oliver Velez would be proud of you if you did, I t'ink !

And another at 8.20 am ( 2 mins)

 

[BeginnerJoe]

And another at 8.20 am ( 2 mins)

Missed that elephant herd. The correlation in the markets are weak today. So I wasn't sure if the elephants are coming or going.

 

[the hare]

Mike Baghdady is probably one of the most maligned "trainers" by people on this forum. He appeared in practically every joke. That got me interested. I did a quick search on youtube. But couldn't find any videos where he said he could make 300%/500%/1000% in 1 minute/5 minutes/1 hour/1 day/1 week.

You need to check his webinars over at fxstreet to hear those claims.

its the Australian advertisers who cant be named who claimed 1000% in 20 minutes (and she earned it whilst simultaneously, cooking cleaning, looking after the kids, and giving sexual relief to her husband)

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You need to check his webinars over at fxstreet to hear those claims.

its the Australian advertisers who cant be named who claimed 1000% in 20 minutes (and she earned it whilst simultaneously, cooking cleaning, looking after the kids, and giving sexual relief to her husband)

Well he's running a business. It would be inevitable for him to exaggerate here or there. Unfortunately I would feel less inclined to sympathise with those who got taken in. A lot of stuff are just basic and obvious and there should be no excuses for being taken in so easily.

 

[Pat494]

Missed that elephant herd. The correlation in the markets are weak today. So I wasn't sure if the elephants are coming or going.

Ah yes so easy in hindsight. Can't say I am overly impressed with the jumbos or is it dumbos !

 

[the hare]

Well he's running a business. It would be inevitable for him to exaggerate here or there..

That's possibly true, and even understandable.

Its the magnitude of the exaggeration that's the issue. In the real world there are constraints of leverage, margin and volatility of the instrument being traded. Its all well and good saying if I had 100000:1 leverage I'd have made x, if the broker will only extend leverage at 5:1, or 50:1 or even 500:1

Mr B for example in his last webinar was gracious enough to show 3 consecutive losers for around 70 pips each. Of course if those losses had been taken at the same theoretical leverage he applied to his 300% trade.... well lets just say he wouldn't have been around to see a 2nd or 3rd loss.

The only way you'd make such exaggerations where if you where completely ignorant (and on the basis of hearing this particular Muppet talk, I suspect he is), or if you held the audience in such contempt that you thought they where dumb enough to fall for this bull**** (in fairness, a lot of them probably are)

He's either stupid, or he's prepared to con others, neither are particularly good traits in a mentor.

 

[tony1979]

Things in nature do not comply to anything, likewise the market does not comply to anything (less the intermittent manipulations that follow specific distinctively artificial rules). So you are looking at things from the wrong angle. I reckon fibs is an approximation of things in nature, but does not govern them. It gives a useful average. As you know, trading is all about averages. Your need for the market to fit your exact 'scientific' formulas is where you are going wrong. Even though trees fit a general average, each one is different. Likewise in the market, moves fit a general average, but each move is different.

Thanks for your research into fibs, we are now safely assured it's no worst than any other lines. So the fibs is not detrimental compared to any other lines we choose to use. It's a matter of perspective. You see a half empty cup, and I see a half full one. I reckon the market has taken its toll on you. It has yet to do the same to me, and it's not going to because I know what the true nature of it is.

From your posts, you exhibited occasional flashes of recognition for the market's true nature. I am now more inclined to think you still haven't got it. Although you see recurances of vaguely familiar patterns in every part of the market, you have not been able to put them together and come to the realisation the same force is acting behind all of them. The true nature of the market is explained in no uncertain terms in some of these videos, and I am not going to say which. Therein lies the money, the pips, the mother lode. All you need to do is reach in and get some. Or you can carry on with your lulz and continue your odyssey of thrashing around surfacing occasionally to say "WTF, what's the rulez ?" The rulez, my friend, is staring you right in the face. But you cannot see it because you want it to be an artificial construct.

I also concur with The Hare; fibs have no statistical validity trading them systematically. Also, "confluence" is a load of baloney too. Again, no statistical validity whatsoever.

 

[NVP]

leverage is like rope..........give a Trader enough and he will hang himself

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Ah yes so easy in hindsight. Can't say I am overly impressed with the jumbos or is it dumbos !

Signs of the elephants need to be uses along with other other signs and the context for them to be effective.

It would be unwise to cherry pick any single element from these videos and use that as the sole component of one's strategy. The market is very simple, but not THAT simple.

I understand the need for an exact formula for the market. But the nature of the market would not allow this. The ideas in these video can be seen as pieces of lego. One has to get a bunch of them together and create something useful.

leverage is like rope..........give a Trader enough and he will hang himself

The amount of account to risk is fairly well defined in most strategies. Risking excessively whether through margin or through size has the same effect.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

That's possibly true, and even understandable.

Its the magnitude of the exaggeration that's the issue. In the real world there are constraints of leverage, margin and volatility of the instrument being traded. Its all well and good saying if I had 100000:1 leverage I'd have made x, if the broker will only extend leverage at 5:1, or 50:1 or even 500:1

Mr B for example in his last webinar was gracious enough to show 3 consecutive losers for around 70 pips each. Of course if those losses had been taken at the same theoretical leverage he applied to his 300% trade.... well lets just say he wouldn't have been around to see a 2nd or 3rd loss.

The only way you'd make such exaggerations where if you where completely ignorant (and on the basis of hearing this particular Muppet talk, I suspect he is), or if you held the audience in such contempt that you thought they where dumb enough to fall for this bull**** (in fairness, a lot of them probably are)

He's either stupid, or he's prepared to con others, neither are particularly good traits in a mentor.

I can only judge people from the evidence available to me. He did not say anything that is unreasonable in the videos I listed (though these are so long that I haven't finished viewing them). But from what I can tell, his strategy is quite a reasonable one. If he has a character flaw of taking on excessive risk, perhaps that is the reason he went bankrupt and having to resort to another way to make a living.

As for whether he is justified to take the money that people are throwing at him, I think he is. He's able to see and satisfy a demand in the market. That's a very good sign in a trader.

You seem like an avid follower for his webinars, how come ? I have the impression that you found your way already and should have no need for trainers . My personal approach is always take what has value and leave anything else behind. The fact that someone is imperfect and partly made from rubbish does not diminish the value of the part that isn't rubbish.

 

[the hare]

I can only judge people from the evidence available to me.

So your bias's wont allow you to look for information that contradicts your current view. That's a serious problem in this game.

If we use MB as an example, practically all of the turtles where informed of the reality of MB's situation. No trading record, no evidence of ever making money from trading, and the bankruptcy from trading losses.

They too chose not to let reality influence their bias's. All the turtles had to do was to open a PDF file, and all you have to do is nip over to FXStreet and listen to a webinar by someone who you actually believe is imparting useful knowledge.

You cant do that though, because you might hear something that you don't want to confront.

I love this game, its like taking candy from a baby.

 

[Pat494]

Why not let us know when you have worked your way through another ? videos what you whizzo results or conclusions are ?

Some guy keeps bombarding me with his video wisdom. I will try and post one next time.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

So your bias's wont allow you to look for information that contradicts your current view. That's a serious problem in this game.

If we use MB as an example, practically all of the turtles where informed of the reality of MB's situation. No trading record, no evidence of ever making money from trading, and the bankruptcy from trading losses.

They too chose not to let reality influence their bias's. All the turtles had to do was to open a PDF file, and all you have to do is nip over to FXStreet and listen to a webinar by someone who you actually believe is imparting useful knowledge.

You cant do that though, because you might hear something that you don't want to confront.

I love this game, its like taking candy from a baby.

Well, I am not interested in anything that has no value. Since you have already done the work of identifying which part of MB that has no value, why would I go and waste my time and look for that part ?

Based on my understanding of the market and my experience so far. I believe his videos I listed here have some value. You may disagree, but that does not invalidate my judgement. As a clue into your understanding of the market, I'd be interested to see your assessment of MB's video I linked here.