GBPJPY looks ready to tumble from here. I will keep my order in place. Price is currently at 158.52
GBPJPY looks ready to tumble from here. I will keep my order in place. Price is currently at 158.52
Thoughts on this trade are that OBV is showing divergence around my marked point of interest. OBV has already broken lower, once price comes in line with OBV then I will have momentum on my side of the trade along with built in overhead resistance. In the past I would have just jumped in the trade right now at 158.52 instead of 158.10 because thats 42 pips more. But I have learned all to well to go with your first analysis and stick with it. Just because it looks to be setting up does not mean it will follow through. If it reaches my order and fails thats one thing. If I were to jump in too early then I did so without confirmation. A weakness in my trading that I finally got rid of. I will sit tight, if it doesnt trigger then I will just wait til the next time.
Call me a fool but GBPJPY has some serious negative short term volume. Looks like the upward movement is being sold pretty steady. I would say at the asian open it will tell if tomorrowr will be a down day or not. I will keep my same order in Place. Looks like price is being kept up so it can be sold at a better price. 5 minute OBV suggest price should surpass 158.76 ut after that I think its down she goes. I will wait for confirmation.
Closing this order and will just focus on gbpjpy
So lets see if I have a handle on the lower timeframe OBV. 5 minute o=OBV suggest price should surpass 158.76. My bias is down due to declining OBV on hourly and below.
Price did not go over 158.76 before getting to where it is now at 158.43. I think price is showing the downward bias only to turn around at the Asian open and go above 158.76 before resuming down. In the past I jumped at this kind of bait. I will be interested to see if this is what happens at 8pm eastern open. Either way I will keep the same order open for gbp jpy.
Leaving this order open
Quick observation as price opens on the 8pm open I prefer for the pair. Price opened below value for the day which can signal a trend day, magnified by the already negative volume. Need to see price push past whatever the initial balance ends up being.
Pin bar on the 8pm candle suggest price may be in an unfair area. Short term point of interest should be previous days point of control 158.53. a weekly resistance line is just above this at 158,58 so that area should cause a decline or breach should show more room up. I will let price come back to me. A failing of mine in the past was to chase price trying to predict tops and bottoms
Sure enough price had the appearance of going down but as of this post it is at 158.70. OBV is still diverging heavily on hourly. But I am startingto see a trend that could be an edge.
I cant quite put my finger on it but the lower time frame OBV seems to be a good indicator of where price wants to go first while the higher timeframe OBV indicates where its going. In the past I would have jumped in the trade last night but I have been burned many times seeing a lower time frame OBV divergence take precedence over the higher time fram OBV.
Price should go past 158.76 but what I am looking for is a reversal formation to confirm alignment with the obvious hourly divergence.
So much for my downward bias. Momentum laughs in the face of news. I take solace in the fact that in years past I would have gotten eaten alive on this trade. Instead I did nothing, knowing that while I had an idea of where pice may go i was uncertain. Turns out I was wrong, but since I didnt ente a trade it was the right move in this case.
I cant seem to shake all that negative momenum prior thoguh. I think this is a build up in price by retail traders after the news and the big boys are sellingto them cause the rise. Well in the coming hours the price action will tell who is raising price, retail or institutional.
I cant seem to shake all that negative momenum prior thoguh. I think this is a build up in price by retail traders after the news and the big boys are sellingto them cause the rise. Well in the coming hours the price action will tell who is raising price, retail or institutional.
I have been burned enough to feel a trap when I see one. Since this journal is to document my thoughts while in action I will state that I am sitting this upward move out. Looks like a news rally being bought by retail to. My reasons are stated in the above post.
If I am right pice will come crashing down soon. I will not be picking a top. I will wait for price to react around levels of interest. At end of day I will examine the chart and plot a plan. So I will go on record saying this JPY rise at least in GBPJPY isnt going to last very long.
Of course I could be wrong lol. We shall see.
If I am right pice will come crashing down soon. I will not be picking a top. I will wait for price to react around levels of interest. At end of day I will examine the chart and plot a plan. So I will go on record saying this JPY rise at least in GBPJPY isnt going to last very long.
Of course I could be wrong lol. We shall see.
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