My story of progression - forex

[JTrader]

Yes Andy

i've learnt quite a bit about S/R, price action and momentum. Identifying mistakes made in trades whereby I usually enter too late, once the move has started, as i'm waiting for those extra snippets of info to inform me of whether to trade or not, before jumping on board. By the time I enter, I have then missed some of the profit.

If trading a reversal at S/R entering a few pips too late can be the difference between a winning trade, and a losing trade being the result where your SL is hit.

Similarly when entering a price action/momentum based trade at a B.O. above R/ minor S. or below S/minor R, entering a few pips too late can be the difference between a winning trade, and a losing trade with my SL being hit.

Entering these two types of trades as close as possible to S/R or minor R/S would at least helps protext my SL more, above/below S/R or minor R/S.

Entering such types of trades late, often means you miss a chunk of the profit, the momentum may run out of steam upon my eventual entry, and start reversing, only to stop me out, and then continue in my original direction...........................At least entering on time as close as possible to S/R or minor R/S, if the price goes for me, I am imediately in profit, and have a cushion to work with. If the price goes against me at least I will be stopped out behind S/R or minor R/S..............

However, there seemss also to be a benefit to waiting those few extra ticks and ending up with a late entry/less favourable entry price.
For those trades where you hesitate, wait and the price does not go in the favour of the trade you nearly took/were about to take, at least you avoid taking those trades that would have hit your SL..........................There's a very fine balance involved..................I'm not 100% sure how to deal with this yet..............but I can see the issues at play....

 

[andycan]

Yes Andy

i've learnt quite a bit about S/R, price action and momentum. Identifying mistakes made in trades whereby I usually enter too late, once the move has started, as i'm waiting for those extra snippets of info to inform me of whether to trade or not.
If trading a reversal at S/R entering a few pips too late can be the difference between a winning trade, and a losing trade being the result.
Similarly when entering a price action/momentum based trade at a B.O. above R or below S, entering a few pips too late can be the difference between a winning trade, and a losing trade with my SL being hit.
Entering these two types of trades as close as possible to S/R or minor R/S at least helps protext your stop more, above/below S/R or minor R/S.

jtrader

S/R has value but like everything its only one part of the puzzell but naturally its dependent on how you see the market
entering too late is because you are not pre planning the trade its a simple matter of identifying different scenarios and acting accordingly
i like to have an idea what the market is doing once i know then anticipating a move is much easier

 

[chump]

"anticipating " .....

 

[JTrader]

Update

Hi

I've settled on an intraday strategy/s and rules that my manual backtests show should continue to be profitable, after lots of painstaking work testing and discarding several strats.

However, i'm still in the early stages of implementing it, and get jumpy, exit early, or do not trade valid entry signals, and the pessimist in me keeps expecting it to fail, but day after day, the charts show me that it is working, and if i followed my existing rules to the letter, it works well, and I would have been more profitable than i have been trading it so far.

In these early stages of implementing a new trading plan, i've been surprised by the number of times in the heat of the moment that I do not follow my existing rules - usually resulting in me making less than i should have done - as a result of not spotting something, or reacting quickly enough to it in real-time, or just plain forgetting/not recalling a rule in the heat of the moment.

Hopefully in the days/weeks to follow it wall all become 2nd nature.

 

[chump]

JT,
Could I ask, at this point are you trading with the absolute minimal position size available to you? If I interpret where you are at you would be recommended to be following that approach as you clearly need to build your confidence in your system and that won't happen if you keep getting twitchy and basically not allowing your system to fulfil it's expectancy. Somewhere I said the hardest thing people find to do is "nothing" , or I should say "nothing until something is required". At this time you are crowding your trades because of your emotional involvement. As a first step to dealing with that really small size would be a way to go because you need to get to the point where you can just observe without being personally involved.
Hope this helps....see my sig. I have it for a reason.

 

[JTrader]

JT,
Could I ask, at this point are you trading with the absolute minimal position size available to you? If I interpret where you are at you would be recommended to be following that approach as you clearly need to build your confidence in your system and that won't happen if you keep getting twitchy and basically not allowing your system to fulfil it's expectancy. Somewhere I said the hardest thing people find to do is "nothing" , or I should say "nothing until something is required". At this time you are crowding your trades because of your emotional involvement. As a first step to dealing with that really small size would be a way to go because you need to get to the point where you can just observe without being personally involved.
Hope this helps....see my sig. I have it for a reason.

Good points chump.
I have progressed beyond minimums, as I know that if I follow the rules I will make a profit on most days. This is as a result of trading minimums, being successful and progressing to the next increment. I do/have done this in a planned and carefully controlled way.

However, your right in your assertions, as i have a tendency to become a bit paranoid and think things are going to go pear shaped when i increase to the next increment, hence the early exits, not trading some valid signals only to see them result in a missed profit. However, at least the fact that the outcome was a profit, does help build confidence in my system.

I have to overcome this mild paranoia and become comfortable increasing my size with success, as increasing size is central to my plan.This is why i think in terms of pips/points and not £/$'s.

As my new approach is NEW, perhaps being a bit more patient with myself, and not forcing the issue of £/$ trade size increases should be the priority, and perhaps they are so in my thinking already. Hopefully in days/weeks to come, my rules and reasoning will continue to integrate themselves further into my mind so that my strategy will become 2nd nature.

Your right in that trading minimums helps you become comfortable with your strategy, and once you have mastered your strategy, increasing size should be easy/easier, but on the other hand my thinking is, if your profitable each/most days, I think that trading minimums is a wasted opportunity as I could be accumulating much more.

It's just a shame if and when your losing days coincide with the days when you increase trade size .

 

[JTrader]

Hi

ironing out the negative points and inconsistencies, and integrating rules to combat them are the key to how I have developed what is starting to look like a solid approach. Then integrating all of these into a cohesive and internalised understanding and code of conduct that you are able to recall and implement in real-time should be the final steps on the path to having an solid approach that you are comfortable with.

It is this final part that i feel i have reached and am presently tackling. I know what to do and what not to do, i have clearly defined rules - these rules just need to become 2nd nature in realtime, and i need to have them in clearly in mind, and react accordingly when one of these rules is activated.

I agree, until you have completed this journey and everthing becomes second nature, trading minimums is the best approach. Because you learn all sorts of minor things along the way which have an effect and can be intergrated into your big picture. Once you can do all this, bigger trade sizes should be eaiser and less pressured, more comfortable to implement, and hopefully, you can then begin to progress quickly, once you have mastered your approach with minimal risk, but lots of experience gained.

The difficulty is knowing when you have reached the point to progress. You may have used one strat., increased trade size, decided to modify your strat/rules for something better.

This is when i feel i shoud, and i have gone back to minimums - as you can't hope to be successful/comfortable/at one with a new strategy approach and rules instantly. Whenever i have gone back to the drawing board, I have recommenced with minimums.

 

[new_trader]

Trading is Hard and there are no short cuts

The trade entry signals that I don't take, go on to make what could have been a 15-20-30+ pips nice swift profit.

The trade entry signals that I do take (the ones that don't hit your stop-loss level), really make you sweat (for up to 30-60 minutes) for whatever gains I may or may not make. Hovering perilously close to my entry point and stop-loss level, then maybe entering a price range, breaking that range before heading into profit, only to pull-back leading to a exit at or very close to break-even?

I think that the difference between a very successful - successful - unsuccessful - loss-making trading day can boil down to a few minute random details on the chart, and whether or not these minute details go for or against me.

Last week these minute details went for me, and I made a level of profit that I am expecting to make.

This week these minute details (such as stop-loss, breakeven stop-loss, or a trailing stop-loss being hit - whatever exit strategy/s that you use - then the price immediately retraces back in the original direction of entry for what would have been a 20+ pips) have gone against me. Had they gone for me, I could have made 100+ pips, as it stands I am struggling to breakeven.

I then decide that a trailing stop-loss only cramps the trade, so I do not use one, but then see my profit withdraw to breakeven.
Similarly, if I could decide not to use the breakeven stop-loss and only a stop-loss, but then what was a potential profit can becomes a loss!

Is it just me or can all traders relate to these regular frustrations?

All feedback welcome!

Cheers
jtrader.

Whew, thought it was just me. This attached chart is typical of what I have been experiencing trading Futures.

 

[chump]

I don't see any 'emotional' problem with what you posted.....BUT you could do with being more selective on your trades....did that first trade type have a tested high probability of success ? It might ,BUT I doubt it....you went long with R just above you counter trading the trend ;(

 

[new_trader]

I don't see any 'emotional' problem with what you posted.....BUT you could do with being more selective on your trades....did that first trade type have a tested high probability of success ? It might ,BUT I doubt it....you went long with R just above you counter trading the trend ;(

Chump,

Was this post for me? My aim was to trade a reversal.

 

[JTrader]

Never mind "spreadbetting, whats the point/", i'm increasibly asking myself - "trading, whats the point?"

I don't like to sound negative, but...............

rant/sulk

Great start to the week on Monday.
Nightmare for EURUSD since Tuesday, and am at breakeven for week.
Unconventional and non-typical price action = what the hell is going on. Price is at a standstill for ages, breaks out, and then when a trade opportunnity follows this slippage type PA, that was it, the only chance, and price halts and forms another CP or retraces back into a CP.
May as well just guess = no way to try and make a living.

I'm starting to think that any trader who believes they are making an informed decision about their trade entries is kidding themselves. Trading = guessing/gambling at the end of the day and has little to do with logic.

I ain't got a clue what will happen next, unless following a major ENR and price reaches 00255075 and is heading in the right direction that the ENR suggests it should. Therefore having any confidence in what I'm doing is difficult.

I try and make an informed decision to hold on for a bigger profit, and end up coming out at breakeven.
Next time i accept a smaller profit, and sure enough, price sprints off in my chosen direction.

I ain't got a clue sister. I know when price is trending or when its stuck in a range. Trouble is, we don't know when this range will break, other wise i could trade S/R.
Therefore I only trade with the trend, but with this irregular slippage type Price action, chances to profit have been few and far between.

Athough I am profitable, I am not progressing quickly enough.

I've done my homework, and know that theres no such thing as a holy grail. Therefore i find it hard to believe that any/many traders have more of a clue than I do.

One week I make 50 pips profit. 6 weeks later, when I know an awful lot more, and have supposedly fine tuned and become at one with my approach/strategy, I break even.
Therefore, as someone who is used to reaping the rewards of hard work, in emploment, sport, education etc. this really bugs me about trading, as there is no guarantee that this hard work and preparation will pay off.

Anyways, if things don't pick up by then end of the month, thats me out of the game, because although i am vastly more knowledgeable and experienced, and therefore should be more successful now than on day one of full-time trading back in November/December. The reality is that I am no better or no worse. It's no big deal, I'll just find something else to do with my days.

My progression is characterised by the odd half decent winning day, followed by days when I lose small amounts, or make small amounts. 5 steps forward, 3 steps back.

The main way i can improve is to learn to be able to let a profit run on the occassions that EURUSD has an extended run (hopefully tommorrow afternoon). But this is difficult, when
A) you don't have a clue what will happen next......
B) I don't think we're supposed to have a clue (90% anyway)
C) when i try this, i end up losing a profit and breaking even!
Staggered exits, partly help reduce this problem, but by no means solve it.
D) the good looking trade entry signals I do execute fail. The bad looking entry signals that I don't trade, succeed! Therefore I am relieved to lock in a lower number of pips profit.


Still up over 80% in 3.5 months, and now that i have "more knowledge, experience, and a settled/well defined approach/strategy", if trading was like golf, academia, tennis etc. perhaps i could hope to progress from now on at a greater speed.
But trading is quite random and not like those things, and I think how can i hope to compound and trade bigger sizes, when with time and experience I still feel so clueless as to what is happening.

Perhaps these last 3 days have just been difficult for EURUSD generally due to the quiet PA and narrow daily ranges.

I can't believe that other traders can have any or more confidence in their strategy/results than what i do as none of us have a clue what the invisible big players who move the price (we are effectively betting on what the market is doing/will do in spot forex/the invisible big players actions, no level 2 data etc. which I find of limited use anyhow) - do we all feel like this? i.e. clueless, even if profitable overall - whether this be £1000 or £1000,000?

How can any of us 2nd guess or compete with an algorithm?

Each day I think I've learnt something, and in that moment I did, but price action is/can be so random, such insight invariably means that my indight sometimes will work, and other times it will not.

Perhaps Its a EURUSD thing?

Rant/sulk over.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Similar to euros action today

.Ive eyeballed the euro before posting this, and its not to far off price action for comparison.

Agressive, passive agressive, pro ... or 1,2,3 1,2,3 still no guarentee's and when the market rolls we have to roll with it . Especially daytrading ,I mean the trend is likely to change 1,2,3 times Like chump said waiting can be a very frustrating activity.

 

[jacinto]

JT,

have you thought of trading other pairs also, and not only EURUSD? have a look at other pairs, you may be surprised to find moves when this pair doesnt do a thing. also, why not look at non-dollar crosses.

why not have a look at, say,

eurchf
eurjpy

for instance

j

 

[JTrader]

Hi Jacinto

I've tried GBPUSD, and like the added volatility in theory, but this can be a double edged sword for me, and too quick/whippy/jumpy - those days that i tried GBPUSD didn't go well overall.

EURUSD big & medium trend days should be good for my strategy. Tight range days not so good, resulting in small losses & few trade opps.

I am quite good at recognising when not to trade - i.e. during a range, i recognise this CP & wait for a b.o.
However, when EURUSD is on a quiet day and in a range, over the last 3-4 days I have noticed, you do get these quick false B.O.'s, followed by a retracement back into the CO, without a continuation of the B.O.

If only i knew how long a range/CP or trend would last, then i could trade either, successfully via simple S/R & trend following techniques!

Thanks.

 

[jacinto]

ok, good,

but, think you didnt see the non-dollar part. honest, do have a look.

j

example eurchf 4 hour charts. beats eurusd and has same spread. no brainer.

 

[pssonice]

I cant c any progress

it seems to me that u cant isolate any winner

 

[JTrader]

ok, good,

but, think you didnt see the non-dollar part. honest, do have a look.

j

example eurchf 4 hour charts. beats eurusd and has same spread. no brainer.

Thanks jacinto

what do you mean exactly by not seeing the dollar part?

I'll have a closer look at EURCHF.

 

[jacinto]

Thanks jacinto

what do you mean exactly by not seeing the dollar part?

I'll have a closer look at EURCHF.

no worries mate, just trying to open your eyes in a way mine were opened somewhere else.

by "non-dollar part" i mean you only gave examples of "other pairs" that are dollar related. the bottom line is that by trading cable or swissy, you are not getting away necessarily from the issues EURUSD has.

on the other hand, if the cross you are looking for doesnt have "USD" on either side of the denomination, you may be able to "diversify" your possibilities, so to speak. the eurchf was just an example. you may find other crosses suit your trading method, and have moves that are not necessarily correlated to your "core pair" (EURUSD)

that was basically what i meant.

good trading

jacinto

 

[JTrader]

Hi

sorry, I forgot - just to point out to people that today I had this thread moved from the Psychology section, and changed the title slightly, so that hopefully as time passes i can develop it into something more useful and constructive as a journal.

 

[JTrader]

Attention All new Traders!

Another bad afternoon to match a lifeless morning, and a dead week following such a promising start to the week on Monday.

Lifeless EURUSD Tuesday through Friday morning.

Post 1330 NFP today, results in very few tradeable opportunities, as following the initial 1330-1335 price spikes (which personally i think you have to be suicidal to trade) price action comes to a standstill. In anycase, without an instantaneaous news ticker this is impossible, and you have to wait 3-5 minutes for briefing.com or forexfactory.com updates.

The 2 good trades i entered that went into profit were sabotaged by a faulty ****ing WS SB trade ticket, meaning i have to restart my browser, & sure enough when i have done this, the profit has dissappeared and becomes a loss!

I wish i could sound more positive but i can't as this would be deluding myself further.

I'm a university graduate who has put a lot of effort into trading on and off in my spare time for 4-5 years. I've been to chart school, and studied all the indicators which many traders conclude are useless. Many including me may then use no indicators, and just concentrate on price action tick by tick.
In my opinion, this is just as random, and none of us have a clue what to do next.

Although overall i have been profitable trader in both my spells of intraday trading, I haven't been able to progress quickly enough, or develop enough faith in what i am doing to convince me that compounding my profits and ultimate success will result.

Price moves in an uncontrollable way, in spot forex and spreadbetting we are betting on something that we have no influence in determining the outcome of. Direct market access traders may argue that their situation is different, although i feel that only the person with enough dough to trade many contracts at once can have any influence on shaping the market direction.

Would i get involved in trading again? Probably not. At the end of this month at the latest, i am probably going to call it a day, and I will have to find something more interesting and useful to people other than myself to do with my days.

The bottom line is, I feel i am no better or worse a trader now than i was 4 years ago, when i tried full-time intraday for 6 months. And why should i be any better or worse (despite days/weeks in chart school), when market price action is so random and beyond my control or influence?
I'm not able to even influence let alone control what will happen, nor can anyone, therefore why should anyone think that with time and experience they should improve as a trader?

I'm coming to the conclusion that it is a complete waste of time, and that like the other 90-95%, now is the time to walk away, waste no further time or effort thinking, ah yes I've found my holy grail. I don't think there is one, or that anyone has one.

I do not doubt that there is a real 5-10% of traders who are successful and do not lose like the other 90%.

As an example, i know a trader who is a very prominent member of other trading communities and has made many of his own indicators and still makes them, and shares them for free. He doesn't use any of them however, because they do not work well enough. He makes his profits based on price action around 1/4 century forex levels - allied by the facts that he doesn't use a stop-loss and just waits for a trade to come back into profit - whether this takes hours days or weeks.

As stated, I have been to chart school and spent many hours in charts schools homework club, and know an awful lot about charts, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, brokers etc. etc.
and I like every other trade do not have a clue what is coming next.

Trading is gambling, and attempts to convince otherwise is delusinonal.

THERE IS A VERY GOOD REASON WHY ONLY 5-10% SUCCEED, i don't know exactly what this is.

Make up your own minds about if you want to commit similar time and effort like I have done, use my story and experience as a warning. But at the end of the day, be prepared to join the other 90-95% of people whjo quit in failure.

I have done a stupendous amount of work that could have been better spent. I am an extremely determined, strong, self-motivated and conscienscious individual, and I still haven't got a clue. I could continue trying to convnice myself that with further experience, things will continue to improve, just like my golf handicap, or my fitness with time spent at the gym, but to my mind trading doesn't work like this, otherwise i'd be an expert ny now - which I am, but i still don't have a clue whats coming next.

Although i don't necessarily think i am likely to turn into a loser, i can forese me becoming a breakeven trader, and happy to be a break even trader - which in itself is not easy.

Maybe if i do quit i'll come back to trading in my retirement. Maybe I won't because if i can't succees now, why should i at 65?

These are the pitfalls, are you prepared to waste valuable hours days, weeks, months years and be 90% likely to end up in the same situation?

Please don't let this put you off, but it should act as a sobering warning as to what you are getting into, and what i am probably going to get out of.

Overall, my impression is that people get into trading with big dreams of being successful. 90% fail - period, and i think a lot of the 5-10% who succeed, end up taking a lot longer than they had initially hoped to in terms of time and effort, to reach their desired level of success, making little more than they would do in a regular day job.

Remember that there is no such thing as a holy grail - all traders look for one, but most will tell you this also.
At best a trading strategy will work best some of the time, but not all the time - and your total gross profits will outnumber your total gross losses, if you become on of the lucky 5-10%.

PS. I've also decided that my signature is wrong!