JillyB's Blog

[JillyB]

Monday's Failure

So todays trade was Trade 1 - with a good range from Friday and the open below the close.

This trade has had a problem in the past, which I thought I'd fixed by asking if the 1.30pm candle had been a strong bear candle. Today the answer was no, but the trade still behaved as if the answer had been yes. So what was the problem?

I sat out in the garden with my glass of wine to contemplate this - yes, wine always helps the little grey cells I find.

As I looked at the figures it seemed that the answer lay in the proximity of todays open to the low of Friday. Previously, (except on 24th Feb, which I will come to) the low has been +30 points away from the open. In addition the close has been +20 points away from the open. On all these occasions the trade has been correct. A BUY up to the close, and beyond by possibly 20 points; then a reversal SELL to the low.

Today and on 24th February, the low was less than 30 points from the open and also the close was less than 20 points from the open. Bearing in mind that the close is the highest figure, the open is in the middle and the low is the bottom figure (hope that makes sense). However - this is where I said I would come to 24th February - on this day there was a strong bear candle at 1.30pm and I believed that it was this that signalled the bearish action for the first part of the trading session. It seems that this was misleading. I can now see, and have duly amended my Trading Plan, to take note of the proximity of the open to the low and also the close to the low.

I am now hopeful that this revision will make the Trade more successful. However as today it didn't work, I have noted this as a failure. It drops the accuracy rate of the Plan down to 93.4%, but hey I think it's going to make it more accurate in the future.

 

[JillyB]

It's a - 'Don't Ask' - type of day

Once in a while things go pear shaped.

Once in a while this trader gets extremely cross with herself.

Do I need glasses??? Wait, I already have them (well contact lens at least).

Do I have a brain???? Is it working??? - I think today it's gone on holiday and forgotten to tell me. That definitely seems to be the case.

Bad day at Black Rock - sort of sums it up.

I'm not a happy bunny! (Dear old Jessica Rabbit)

I have big red letters on my trading journal. WHAT DO YOU THINK YOU WERE DOING? DID YOU READ THE TRADE? IT SAID: SELL TO THE LOW.

It said there would possibly be an initial rise, but to place the first trade at 2.50pm - 3.10pm for a sell down to the low at 11,332.

So what did I do? I thought there was an initial buy trade prior to 2.50pm and thought I would trade it. NO, NO, NO.

The Trading Plan does not say this. The Trading Plan says the FIRST trade is a SELL.

Silly Jilly!

Did you ever watch a cartoon called 'Whacky Races' with Dick Dasterdly and Mutley? Well right now I'm doing a really good impression of Mutley, grumbling under his breath.

Those who know the cartoon, will know exactly what I mean.

 

[JillyB]

A Quiet Day

Today I was still smarting after being such a 'prat' yesterday. This coupled with the fact that it was the unfathomable Trade 58 again, made me take a day of rest from the markets.

However some good news on Trade 58 is that it does seem to be the distance of the close to the low that determines what sort of trade it will be.

Each time this has been less than 30 points, the trade has been a BUY and hold trade till 5-6pm.

There have been other BUY and hold trades where the distance has been more than 30 points - but none of the other type of trade (which I have named '3pm sell') this is, BUY till 3pm and then SELL for the rest of the day.

This means I can separate out those trades where the close to the low is less than 30 points(38% of trades), and leave myself just the other 62% to worry about. It's not ideal, but other than that I have nothing else to help with this trade.

At the moment I'm just looking forward to tomorrow - and hoping it's not a Trade 58!

 

[JillyB]

No Trade Today.

It's currently 14.17 and the Dow is at 11,289.

This is 59 points below last nights close and outside (below) yesterdays trading range by 6 points.

My Trading Plan currently shows Trade 39 - Help!
This means that I have yet to write this trade, so I will have to wait and see what transpires today.

My gut feeling is that we will see a small rise back to the low of yesterday and then a continued fall. When the open is so far away from last nights close the index tends to keep on going in that direction. I liken it to the effect of gravity - the further it is away from the close the less effect it has on the price.

Anyway I will get back to the journal later to see if my 'gut' feeling was correct.

 

[JillyB]

It's Been A Funny Sort of Day, Today.

So the Dow opened at 11,292 - 3 points below the low of yesteday.

Usually this would act as resistance and because of the huge drop between last night's close and todays open it would have continued downwards.

But today it didn't. Today it went up. In just under 15 minutes between 3pm and 3.15pm it went up from the low of yesterday to above the high of yesterday. Just over 80 points. Incredible.

As I said my gut feeling was for it to go down - just goes to show how accurate gut feelings can be!

This was a new trade for me - Trade 19. So I've written it up, but with a note of caution as to the news at 3pm that caused the incredible rise.

And who would have credited it - a new recent high as well at 11,413. If you'd told me this at the start of trading today, I never would have believed you.

Well that's all from me for today. I'm eager to see what tomorrow has install for us. Some are chanting about a huge fall on the way. I don't know. I can only trade what the Trading Plan tells me.

 

[JillyB]

Todays Trade

CMC currently has the Dow at 11,370. If the open is around this level then we will be looking at there being an initial BUY trade up to a level just below yesterdays high at 11,413 (11,408 would be safe). The it gives a reversal SELL trade down to the open.

This reversal could happen at either 3pm-3.30pm, or 6-7pm UKtime.

If it opens where it is now and the reversal happens at 3pm-3.30pm then we could see the Dow go down to yesterday low.

 

[JillyB]

Pretty Pleased With That

I'm pretty pleased with my previous post. The accuracy of the system I'm developing sometimes shocks me. (I know I'm blowing my own trumpet here, but allow me a little self-congratulation!)

There are times, such as yesterday, when I doubted what it was telling me. There was such a lot of early bearish activity that it made me very nervous. Sometimes this 'noise' can be up to 30 pts - as it was yesterday - but you just have to ride out the storm.

But by 3.15pm it had hit the target I had given of 11,408 - indeed it only went 2 points above this before starting it's reversal back down to yesterdays close at 11,374.

Just these two trades would have given you +66 points, which is a significant days profit for anyone.

For profitability, If I look at trading days then the system has a 95.3% success rate. However some of these days have 2 or 3 trades pedicted, so in theory the rate is actually higher than that. If a trade goes wrong then I give the whole day a black mark, which is incorrect really. It could be that there are two trades that day and only one goes wrong - so the day isn't a total failure.

I think I need to go through each day and see how many trades have been generated and how each one has performed. It will give me a more accurate record of just how good or bad this system is.

 

[JillyB]

Slow and Choppy

Well we don't seem to have seen the 'Black Monday' predicted by ex-T2W member Bid-A-Tool. Perhaps it will be tomorrow instead - or maybe the day after, who knows!

Today has been very slow going and really quite choppy. I managed to take 12 points off the initial pullback from the high and was happy with this.

Todays Trade was Trade 10 - with a note that the morning trading (since 8am) has not been in a definite downtrend. From this the trade gave:-

BUY up to the previous high at 11,410 and up to 11,417. (Sat this one out - don't ask me why!)
Then
SELL to previous close at 11,369.

I traded the SELL one and took 12 points - though I did get out without it touching the close at 11,369, so I'm back to my old ways of getting out too soon.

Today though it hasn't worried me too much as it's generally been very up and down, although in more of a downtrend through all the choppiness. I am still waiting to see if it will go down low enough to hit the target. (Hope that helps Peter.)

So far we have 1 out of 2 trades successful today - but there's still time to see if it will be 2 out of 2. It does seem to like this higher level - however the range has narrowed considerably today and if it stays in this tight band then we could be looking towards some sort of breakout. I will post tomorrow just before the open to let you know what the Trading Plan says.

UPDATE: 20.30
The target of 11,369 was hit at 20.18 - so that makes it 2 out of 2 for todays trades.

 

[Peter6]

Thanks Jill and well done. At the time of writing (up 40) still not going to either of our plans. Ah well hour and a half to go and then some well needed consolation at the public house.
Thanks again.

 

[Peter6]

Wowwwwwww. Well done again. Glad I kept the faith and stayed until I filled my boots. Well done to both of us - v.v.v.v. happy

 

[JillyB]

It's An Up Day

Well it's given Trade 58 today - again - today.

The low and the close were pretty near - 22 pts away (CMC figures), so this in theory makes it a
BUY at the open (or just below) and hold until 5-6pm when there could be a reversal.

It dropped down about 17 points from the open which is within the 30 points 'noise' that I allow and we're now up at 11,382, which is 10 points above the open.

I'll wait and see what the rest of the day holds.

Sorry to everyone about not posting earlier - I did say I was going to - but then my 12 o'clock meeting over-ran considerably and I didn't get back here until 3.10pm. So no trades for me today!

 

[JillyB]

A Long, Slow Day

So the Dow has managed to 'haul' itself above 11,400 again. And when I say haul, I mean it. Three hours this afternoon to get there. Very slow, but quite a steady ascent.

The open was 11,372, and the trade (58) was to BUY at the open to go up until 5-6pm and then to look for a reversal.

So say you had managed to get in just below this at 11,370 and stayed in until 6pm at 11,405, then you would have made 21 points after the 4 point spread.

A long slow day, but worth it.

I still need to teach myself this though, patience, wait for the trade to do what it has to. Don't jump ship too soon just because you've made a little profit. Stay with it. Trust what the trade tells you (this should be the one over-riding thing). Yet still I doubt it, every day, I look at the candles forming and say - hmmm, is this really going to fall/rise? It looks quite the opposite to me.

I just have to learn to bide my time, put my stop and limit orders in and let it trade it's little heart out. Patience!

 

[JillyB]

Today's Dow

Ok, so today we have Trade 24

The index is currently at 11,396 and as long as it doesn't change much in the next five or so minutes this is what the Trading Plan is telling me.

An initial trade being a BUY trade up to 11,413 and possibly up higher than this to around the 11,450 mark.

Then I'm looking for a reversal and a SELL back down to around 11,355.

Lets wait and see what happens!

 

[JillyB]

The Trade is Wrong!

The trade I posted earlier was incorrect. I only realised it later.

Believe it or not, I had been revising Trade 24 at the weekend and I'm not sure what happened, whether I forgot to save the changes, or managed to overwrite it. But what I had today was the unrevised version of Trade 24.

The revised version of this is
SELL at the open down to the previous low at 11,355
Then look for a BUY trade up to 11,394.

Trade 24 has several variations depending on the previous days range and how close the low of the previous day to the open is. These variations are what I was working on at the weekend.

In a very narrow previous days range, Trade 24 can be a breakout trade, either up or down. The direction of this depends on how close the open is to the low.

I'm sorry about this. Me being me, managed to scalp 8 points on a BUY trade at the open. It was after this that I realised something wasn't quite right.

Sorry to anyone who was following the journal.

 

[JillyB]

7th November

Todays trade is Trade 47 and the last day this happened was 7th November 2005.

it's currently at 11,443 and I am looking for a SELL trade back down to the high at 11,408.

Let's wait and see what happens!

I'm on a plane in just over an hour, so I'm heading up to the airport now. No trading for me today. Back Monday evening so I'll be posting again on Tuesday. Taking the computer with me though - my little A5 sized one - so I may pop in and see what happens.

 

[JillyB]

Looking for more upward movement.

The Dow is currently at 11,619 (CMC). If it opens at, or just around this level, then today trade will be.

Trade 12
At the open BUY to go up to 11,636, this may continue up past this to around 11,659-669.

Then look for a reversal for a SELL trade at this level to go down to 11,620.

NOTE: Yesterday we had a very similar trade, but the full reversal did not happen. We only got a drop of around 50% of the rise. Which was a bummer because this was the trade I took.

 

[JillyB]

2 out of 2

Well, I'm giving the trades 2 out of 2 for today.

Yes, it didn't reach the 11,659 I'd predicted in the earlier post, but that was based on a higher open price. The lower open price at 11,615 calculated a slightly lower target and this was 11,650 - 655. The target is based on the open price plus a ratio of the range. The Trading plan automatically calculates this, based on my past observations which I have entered into the computer programme.

I'm trying now to get an accurate idea of how good the trading plan is. I feel that I'm now in a position where I have enough back-test information and enough live trading information input into the Trading Plan to give it an accurate percentage win rate.

So if we start on Monday of this week. We had 2 trades on Monday - both hit, so 2/2.
Tuesday - not so good only 1/2
Wednesday - both trades hit so, 2/2

So far we have 5/6 trades correct. I'm going to run this now as an ongoing analysis of the plan.

I am going away next Tuesday for two weeks - so there will be no posts. However when I come back I will analyse the trades and post in my journal what the Trading Plan predicted. I'm afraid that you will just have to take my word for these trades, but I will be honest about it - Promise!

 

[JillyB]

A Large Fall

So today was the day that the Dow finally went down. After all those mentions of 'Black Swan' day, it finally gave us a +150 point fall.

Todays Trade was 24, which usually heralds good falls - though more normally following days where the range is narrower than we had from yesterday.

Todays open was 11,631

So todays trade was a SELL back down to the low at 11,595. Then to look for a reversal between 6-7pm for a BUY trade. However by 6pm it was already more than 90 points below the low and I think this was too much for it to form any sort of bounce.

So the Dow finished at 11,497 with the low at 11,474 (25 points away).

I am expecting a bounce and it can usually happen overnight for those who can trade 24 hours. This is one of the trade where I would consider a BUY trade at around midnight and look to get out between 9.30 - 9.50am in the morning. It's possible to get up to 30 points from this trade and it's pretty reliable when there has been a steep fall that day - sort of once the selling pressure has been released then the Dow is allowed a little recovery.

Also, if we look to an open above the close of today (11,497) then we could well be looking at a BUY trade at the open which will last all day. So if it opens at say 11,510 or higher, this should be on the cards.

So it seems the only time when there's room for movement is between 9.50am and 2.30pm. I'm pretty certain we will have upward movement overnight and then depending on what happens betweeen 9.50am and the open we could be looking at more upward movement tomorrow.

Lets wait and see.

Forgot to add - I'm counting the bounce that didn't happen as a losing trade - so I'm now 6/8 trades correct -75% win rate. (A bit early to be judging it though).

I've made a note in the Trading Plan to watch for excessive drops and if by 6pm it's more than 60 points below the low, then there will be no bounce and not to trade it.

 

[JillyB]

Overnight Trade Failed

Well I'm admitting to being surprised at this. It's the first time this type of overnight trade following a strong fall has failed since I've been checking them - 8 months.

I suppose this is one of those instances where you say 'it always works, until it doesn't. I got out at 9.35am when it was failing to get through the high of 11,519. I was out at 11,516 - which was my entry point at midnight - so my loss was the 5 point spread.

At the moment it is looking quite bearish. Yesterday I said if we had an open of 11,510 or above then it would be an up day until around 5-6pm (perhaps even later). However now it is at 11,500 and this would give a bearish day with a SELL trade at the open.

The Dow will need to be above yesterdays close by a good few points if we are going to see the bounce today. It will all depend on where it is at 2.30pm, anything below around 11,502 will be bearish. Above this level we can see more bulls in play. The further the open is above this level at the open, obviously the more bullish sentiment and the more rise we can expect to see.

 

[JillyB]

A Fairly Good Day.

So the Dow opened at 11,480 and headed downwards which was what I had predicted for an open below the close of yesterday.

Todays trade was Trade 1
which was

SELL down to the low at 11,474 and on to between 11,444-459.
Which is what it did. So 1/1 for that. This would have netted around 20 points after the spread.

The next trade was a BUY back up to the close of yesterday at 11,497. And up it did go, however it missed the target by 2 points. So do I allow this?

I think so. The reasons that I give are that the movement was in excess of 40 points - which I, as a trader, would be very happy with. The second is that it retested this level giving another opportunity to exit the trade before it fell back down. On the 5 min chart the two candles at 15.00 and 15.10 with long top shadows were indication enough that it had reached its peak. An exit at the beginning of the next candle would have been at 11,485 - giving a profit of 25-30 points (depending on just where your entry point was).

Giving a total for the day of 45-50 points from two trades.

So to date we have 10 trades, 8 wins and 2 losses.

Out of them the opening trades have been 100% correct and the second trades have been 60% correct. Analysing it in this way is giving me a better perception of what is going on.

I will post again on Monday before the open with my sentiments for the day. After that I will be on holiday (therefore not trading) until 1st June (we're actually back on 31st May, but it's whether or not I'm back at the computer by the time the Dow opens.)

I will analyse the missed days when I get back and post the Trading Plan results. This is as much for myself as anything else to help me get a handle on how the Trading Plan has performed.

My partner, Paul, trades the FX markets and he occassionally asks me what's happening and then 'sneaks' one of my Dow trades in on an afternoon. He keeps saying to me that he doesn't understand my Trading Plan/Strategy at all. He looks at the charts and the market looks bearish (for instance) and yet my Trading Plan is saying BUY. So he places a BUY trade at the open and sure enough it goes up. He asks me how I know it's going to do this. The thing is that I don't. I've just analysed past data based on the HLCO and sometimes the high/low of the mornings range and the entered this into the system. It breaks down the days range into sections and then looks at the open and where it is in relation to the high, low and close. Nothing else. I don't use any indicators. All I have are the lines of the open, low, high and close on the chart. I then add on a line for any target prices it gives - such as happened today - and that's it.

I have a 30 minute chart, a 5 minute and a 2 minute chart (used only to get reversal signals) and that's it.

I like any system that is simple to use - just don't ask me to analyse it, because I just don't know why it does what it does.

But it does and doing that makes me money and that in turn makes me happy! End of story!