Jezek5's FX Trading Journal.

[jezek5]

Re: Dx

So we did fall right through that level of 74.40,we now sit at 73.01.
Monthly s3 pivot is at 72.83 and that seems to have slowed the fall,
i also had a newer fib level at 72.80 but the target of 71.70 at least still stands.

Not sure if there's to many on one side of the boat now and maybe the dollar
pulls back a bit but the feeling i get is the whole world has lost all confidence
in the fed and just wants out at any cost.
I feel any pullback will only get as far as 74.60 before the selling starts again.

1 hr chart on DX,i know nothing much was
open today but that 72.80 line in the sand
held,for now,first upper level to test on the 1 hr 73.70 to 73.90

 

[jezek5]

Aussie.

Looking for the Aussie to hold this level 1.0700
and to push back up again.
Top side target 1.1800, i know that sounds crazy
but thats what my charts say.
Looking to buy.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Fiber

Daily & 4 hr.
4775 looks like the level to be watched,break that and
4650 or even lower looks on the cards.
Looking to sell.

Fiber can't seem to even break 4800,this looks strong,
don't think we'll pullback to the lower level i was looking for.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Aussie.

Looking for the Aussie to hold this level 1.0700
and to push back up again.
Top side target 1.1800, i know that sounds crazy
but thats what my charts say.
Looking to buy.

Oil selling off hard,stock futures to,
looking for reaction around 1.0670.
If that doesn't hold then we could fall
all the way down to 1.0580.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Dx

1 hr chart on DX,i know nothing much was
open today but that 72.80 line in the sand
held,for now,first upper level to test on the 1 hr 73.70 to 73.90

4 hr chart,bouncing around the 73.00 level.
No direction.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Fiber

Fiber still on target for 1.50 +
A pullback to 4500ish would be a nice spot to buy,
i'll be looking for that kind of move but might not come.

Just a thought,everyone's looking at Spain to be the next shoe to
drop,but from some things i'm looking at i think Italy might be the next big problem.
It might take a month or two to feed through and i think in the meantime we go
higher but i'm seeing some dark clouds on the horizon from that direction.

Well,after thinking we couldn't break 4800 to the down side here we are at 4500
thanks to JC,did traders really think we'd get two rate rises back to back?
Didn't trade the drop yesterday and don't think i'll be trading NFP today.
All my information says CBs are still getting out of the Dollar and into other things,
guess we'll know early next week.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Dx

So we did fall right through that level of 74.40,we now sit at 73.01.
Monthly s3 pivot is at 72.83 and that seems to have slowed the fall,
i also had a newer fib level at 72.80 but the target of 71.70 at least still stands.

Not sure if there's to many on one side of the boat now and maybe the dollar
pulls back a bit but the feeling i get is the whole world has lost all confidence
in the fed and just wants out at any cost.
I feel any pullback will only get as far as 74.60 before the selling starts again.

So,all eye's on 74.40,might just cap the up move.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Aussie.

Oil selling off hard,stock futures to,
looking for reaction around 1.0670.
If that doesn't hold then we could fall
all the way down to 1.0580.

1.0580 looks like holding,i'm long close to that number,
very wide stop,want to collect me some swaps and hope to build
this position.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Kiwi.

Kiwi looking a bit weak here,.8000 to .7950
needs to be tested.
Looking to sell down to there.

Kiwi much lower than my target,made a little money trading the short side
but i feel really uncomfortable trading on the wrong side of the swap.
Now looking to buy,maybe one last push down to .7780,
maybe not.

 

[jezek5]

Fiber.

Been looking bloody weak lately,the 4500 level i was looking
to hold didn't,got a bit run over but nothing to much.
Tonights close looks interesting,looks like we're making a base.
I was hoping for a push down to 4060 but it doesn't look like
it's going to happen,looking for longs only from tomorrow.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Dx

So,all eye's on 74.40,might just cap the up move.

So we used 74.40 as a base to move up to 75.60,i had an old fib number
up there and it's also a good resistance level.
Also it's the top channel on that old DX chart of mine.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Fiber.

Been looking bloody weak lately,the 4500 level i was looking
to hold didn't,got a bit run over but nothing to much.
Tonights close looks interesting,looks like we're making a base.
I was hoping for a push down to 4060 but it doesn't look like
it's going to happen,looking for longs only from tomorrow.

Friday,what a day,bought in the morning on the run up,then duly got run over
in the afternoon in the big sell off,ending up at the 4060 level i thought we
wouldn't get to ,bought around there and still holding.
Looking at the 5 min chart it's clear that in the morning,where the green line is
that there was very little selling and lots of buying,changing to the red down line
it looks like it was much more a two way thing intill we got below 4200 where the
green dotted daily line is.
Day bar is a bearish outside bar but i'm not sure if this move was a bit over done.
Lets see next week

 

[jezek5]

Re: Dx

So we used 74.40 as a base to move up to 75.60,i had an old fib number
up there and it's also a good resistance level.
Also it's the top channel on that old DX chart of mine.

DX closed just above 75.60,i feel this move was over done by short covering,
it's make or break time at this level for the Dollar's next move.
One extra bit i want to add,reading about how great the Dollar is now looking
on all sorts of places i think i want to point out that all the Dollar has done
is retraced the drop zone,nothing else.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Dx

DX closed just above 75.60,i feel this move was over done by short covering,
it's make or break time at this level for the Dollar's next move.
One extra bit i want to add,reading about how great the Dollar is now looking
on all sorts of places i think i want to point out that all the Dollar has done
is retraced the drop zone,nothing else.

DX looks like it's running out of steam,
looking for it to pull back to at least 74.50,
maybe lower.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Fiber.

Friday,what a day,bought in the morning on the run up,then duly got run over
in the afternoon in the big sell off,ending up at the 4060 level i thought we
wouldn't get to ,bought around there and still holding.
Looking at the 5 min chart it's clear that in the morning,where the green line is
that there was very little selling and lots of buying,changing to the red down line
it looks like it was much more a two way thing intill we got below 4200 where the
green dotted daily line is.
Day bar is a bearish outside bar but i'm not sure if this move was a bit over done.
Lets see next week

Bought more at 4060 to add to what i got at 4069 on Friday,
Looking for Fiber to clear 4200 for a run back up to 4450 at least,
All stops at +15

 

[jezek5]

Re: Aussie.

1.0580 looks like holding,i'm long close to that number,
very wide stop,want to collect me some swaps and hope to build
this position.

Got knocked out of this trade at +5 after 5 days
long,made a nice profit on the swaps though,
how anyone can hold this thing sort with the cost
involved is beyond me.
Am long again at 1.0552.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Fiber.

Bought more at 4060 to add to what i got at 4069 on Friday,
Looking for Fiber to clear 4200 for a run back up to 4450 at least,
All stops at +15

Stops to 4090.
Might close at around 4340,will see when we get there.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Aussie.

Got knocked out of this trade at +5 after 5 days
long,made a nice profit on the swaps though,
how anyone can hold this thing sort with the cost
involved is beyond me.
Am long again at 1.0552.

Stop to 1.0560,looking for at least 1.0700,then .0860

 

[jezek5]

Re: Fiber.

Stops to 4090.
Might close at around 4340,will see when we get there.

Closed most of this trade for 200 pips at 4260,small part still open.

 

[jezek5]

Re: Aussie.

Stop to 1.0560,looking for at least 1.0700,then .0860

Closed at .0600 for 48 pips,need to reasess.