It's All About The Pips...

[ekanters]

Eggy Day

After my wild egghunt I was looking for a short eurusd. Got one last night and placed the trade with a stop at break even only to find out my target was missed by just 6 pips and was stopped out.

Ok Dan said let's play the bounce on thursday evening but I was not so sure about that although he was right again. So I waited and waited untill finaly a double top on 15 minutes was visable. But still had to wait for the dammed trigger. Not because its no good but because I had to wait some more. At last, the trigger came on and I went short. 25 pips in no time and because I was in with to many K's which means can't stay in to long I was payed quite well by these brokers.

Now I am looking for another smaller trade to go short again but waiting for a 1,2,3 now and play the game up to that 1.2700 that is still on my mind.

Hope I can.

Thanks Dan. Trading well has everything to do with patience and only get in when the opertunity arives, not when you believe the oppertunity will present itself the comming hour. In the last case you will get hammered by the Brokers who love this game of whiping all out.

Thank's again for slowly opening my eyes.

Erik

 

[ekanters]

Eurusd Cloudy

Hi all,

Some more on the cloud. The eurusd is now trapped between the Tenkan and the Kijune. The Kijune line is getting very important now because it is at the same level as the last uptrendline. Some forecasters of the Ichi Moku see a price of the eurusd as low as 1.2400.

Have fun,

Erik

 

[jel31]

Ready to go!

Hi Dan and the gang

Hope you all had a good week's trading last week and a lovely Easter weekend.

We're now back in a very sunny Blighty and just getting my computer and stuff set up for tomorrow morning. 10 days off was just too much, raring to get back into my trading seat!

See you all tomorrow bright and early. I'm off to make a dent in that mountain of chocolate...

Julie

 

[henkvanhirtum]

Maybe I'm being weird here, but the market is already open today, isn't it? Why is everyone on the board saying he will be back on Tuesday?

 

[Rollingstone]

Priorities

Hi Dan and the gang

Hope you all had a good week's trading last week and a lovely Easter weekend.

We're now back in a very sunny Blighty and just getting my computer and stuff set up for tomorrow morning. 10 days off was just too much, raring to get back into my trading seat!

See you all tomorrow bright and early. I'm off to make a dent in that mountain of chocolate...

Julie

Hi Julie

Hope you had a good holiday.

Glad you've got your priorities sorted - trading and chocolate.

Perfect.

RS

 

[Rollingstone]

UK Bank Holiday

Maybe I'm being weird here, but the market is already open today, isn't it? Why is everyone on the board saying he will be back on Tuesday?

Hi Henk

It is a Bank Holiday in the UK but Europe and the US are open, so the markets are moving but the UK is effectively closed.

Being a true Brit Dan is taking a holiday (he does work hard I guess) and leaving us all to get up to mischief on his thread.

Hope this explains.

RS

 

[henkvanhirtum]

Hi Henk

It is a Bank Holiday in the UK but Europe and the US are open, so the markets are moving but the UK is effectively closed.

Being a true Brit Dan is taking a holiday (he does work hard I guess) and leaving us all to get up to mischief on his thread.

Hope this explains.

RS

Thanks for the info Rollingstone. This makes things a lot more clear.

 

[danarm]

Afternoon all

What a weekend...Been to the beach everyday with the family.

Just got back from Tarifa and now exhausted but ready for action tom am. Going to take up kite surfing and be a beach bum again!

Good to see the chat going well and helping the newbies with any questions.

See you at 6.30am... Cant wait!!!

D

 

[ekanters]

Up side down again.

So this is going to be a nice one for Dan tomorrow. Eurusd has wiped all resistance area's. The tenkan line, a 50% fibo level as well as a tripple top. The same thing happened on the GBPUSD. So it looks to be a day of buying dips again and the stop hunters used the downside to take you out and going up again.

Well Dan I have to make a compliment because You did say retracement week and up again the next week. So far so good. Honour to those who deserve it.

Erik

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Tuesday 14th April

Good morning all

Trust you had an enjoyable Easter weekend…

The market is still very confused… Some are saying CABLE down to 1.1000 (a $ rally) and others to 1.6000. Let’s take it day by day.

CABLE
• Looks supported this morning but heading into heavy resistance at 1.4955 level.
• Would like to see a 1.4935/40 bid with stop at 70 for a 30 pip risk.
• If CABLE breaks this resistance lets wait for a 123 to confirm support at the 1.4955 level.

EURUSD
• In a major descending triangle
• Looks supported off short term charts this am with weak USD.
• 1.3400 is a key level to break and we must watch for a double top here.
• Not easy to read direction.

EURGBP
• Only position held over the Easter weekend.
• If GBP continues to power up look for a short play with stop above the DP at 0.9005.
• We would need an 80 bid to make it a 25 pip risk.

JPYs
• USDJPY resting on support.
• Look for golden cross of 4hr 20ma and 4hr 50ma with pullback to the 20ma before a short play.
• GBPJPY will get pulled if CABLE is rallying and USDJPY weakens.

 

[danarm]

Have been patient today after a long weekend...

A lot of thoughts going on in my head about GBP and EUR and trying not to let them affect my judgement.

If Indices keep strong we will see a weak USD so keeping an eye on WS future as a guide to any $ trade.

Big figures out at 1.30pm and waiting for my 123s to kick in.

Cheers

D

 

[danarm]

Hi

Quiet day for me...Shorted CABLE with a tight stop above resistance at 1.4964

Looking at 4hr chart the pullback should be on at some time soon. Will leave this and take a look at it again when i get home. If it doesnt work out then so be it but fancied a little go for 40 ish pips..

Market is a little lost me feels...

See u tom

D

 

[danarm]

Hi

Ok just got home.

Pleased to see 1st target hit at the 60min 20ma. Will hold balance for now in CABLE. Its a free trade and see how this progresses over the next few hours.

D

 

[ekanters]

Different Ball Game

Hi guys,

I looked at several pairs on the daily charts and I am afraid we are now at a different ballgame compared with the last year. A lot of pairs are ranging and others with direction are overbought or oversold. Now is the time to my opinion it will take much longer to get your bigger pip trades. Not saying it is over but bounces will kick in much faster. So banking should be key from now on.

Why this is the case??? Maybe May is comming upwith sun and all or the pairs might have found a relative level compared to eachother. It is anyones guess. But it might take some time before new directions are on.

Maybe I am wrong but nobody has ever got less rich from banking.

Erik

P.S. Range trading in narrow bands is a dangerous game when you stay in to long.

 

[danarm]

Its officially Spring time and green shoots in your back garden arecommon place. Somewhat surprisingly there appears to be some greenshoots in the economy too. I am pleased to report there are signs oflife in the UK housing market if you believe the anecdotal evidence Ihave collected over the last few weeks. This in my view is down to theaggressive interest rate cuts of the last 12 months. Unlike the USwhere the long end yields are key, UK mortgages are still governed bythe base rate and with rates at 0.5% financing is cheap assuming one hasa deposit. Not only that but people lucky enough on tracker mortgageshave seen their mortgage repayments plummet these past 9 months, andknowing how the UK consumer loves to spend I am sure many have been toLakeside and Bluewater to splash some of that extra cash. In additionsavings rates are so low that cash rich individuals are getting itchyfeet and want to buy property to provide them with an income as long asrents hold up! Not only that we have already seen GS earnings o/n andI expect other banks to follow suit with spectacular numbers. As I havementioned on many occasions this year, borrowing money at virtuallynothing and lending it out at 5% plus, wide bid offer spreads and a hugeamount of fixed income new issuance is a license to print money and theQ1 results should reflect that. This is the good news, the question ishow much of this has contributed to this rally of the last month or soand how much further can we rally? During the 1929-1935 period a rallyfor 3 to 6 months including so called green shoots did occur and myfeeling is that we are in the midst of one right now (ie a rally of hopeor bear rally). As you know I love anecdotal evidence and having justcome back from Spain and witnessed the building site that is the CostaDel Sol, it was a stark reminder of the deflationary wealth destructionthat has occurred in real estate globally. I was talking to oneresident who has a friend who is trying to sell their apartment ataround 400k, even though it traded at 950k only 18 months ago. Theshort story is that there is simply no bid for this stuff as supply farexceeds demand plus the currency remains strong. I am hearing similarstories about property in Kazakhstan, Dubai, Ireland and China and I amsure there are many other similar examples. My point is that thedeflationary forces are still huge (see todays US ppi data!) and willcontinue to be the case as companies, consumers/workers will work morefor less (unless you are a civil servant). The bottom line is thatsavings rates will continue to rise and the huge debt burden needs to bepaid down before we can get all excited about this crisis being over. As for EM, only thing of note is the shamble that is Kazakhstan.Allibank found a 1bn plus hole in its balance sheet which does make youwonder, what the other Kazakh banks have got in their bottom drawer!Aside from that spreads continue to ratchet in at an impressive rate(particularly CDS) and although spreads look tight, if CDS longscontinue to get closed the market will tighten in further. For the nextfew weeks the market will have one eye on US data and the other on Q1corporate earnings, for now feels like we are ok for April at least.

Mr P.....

 

[danarm]

Hi

Not going to run this overnight... Closed 2nd half in CABLE for a few pips.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning

I am a plum for closing out that last 50% in CABLE...Infact a donkey!!!

I havent been happy with how the markets have been trading this last week so thought it was best to chop it.

That was my lack of patience!

Have a good one.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning Notes

CABLE
• CABLE has drifted off from its major resistance at 1.4960.
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 60min 50ma.
• Looks best for a short play with stop above the DP at 1.4915
• Support at 1.4850 level and this should be tested and broken today with this setup.
• I am short

 

[TheMonkey]

Morning all, I hope you are well.
Looking at Wall Street Futures we have the classic over night channel. It may have to wait until the European open until we get a break. There is a potental on the open for a Gap Close on the FTSE and Dax and this will also help pull Wall Street back into the 60 minute 20 MA.

Gold found support off our hourly support level and could well test this again today. Please draw the upward sloping support level on your chart and look for the break if indices rally today.

Monkey

 

[althefish]

Second day in the room and very happy with my 47 pips on euro and cable. Stopped out on cable but I'd banked half and was on a free trade by then. Thanks Dan and Co, see in the Monkey School later.

Al