It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Hi Dan

I took EURJPY on the 123 on the 15m chart. Across 3 lots I took 50 pips, 73 pips and 42 pips.

Also took USDJPY on the 123 on the 15m chart for 22 pips, 23 pips and 10 pips again across 3 lots so really chuffed with that.

I'm not very confident at trading retracements but did ok today using your 123 strategy.

Thanks

RS

Well done young lady!!! Very impressive.

D

 

[danarm]

Well not a bad day...

Retracments as expected...

See u tom.

D

 

[danarm]

Hi RS

I meant to say, good to see you on here...

I know u r never far away.

Well done today.

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Thank you Dan.

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Tuesday 7th April

Good morning

9.30am GBP Manufacturing Production is only alert you need to be careful of today.

AUS cut Cash Rate from 0.25% down to 3.00% overnight.

CABLE
• The expected retracement happened yesterday but not into our buy zone. Will probably need another 24 hours for GBP to position itself again.
• WP is offering support at 1.4631 and a break here should signal a further retracement down to the 4hr 50ma at 1.4520 level.
• Won’t be looking for any long play until we break and hold the DP.
• Will be watching closely to see if we can preempt the break of the WP using the 60min 20ma.

EURUSD
• Heavy resistance at 1.3575. A break above this resistance line should see a larger move towards MR1 and even MR2.
• However the concerns over Europe and the EUR still trouble me and I struggle to buy the EUR aggressively. (Saying that if it breaks we should look for a long!)
• 60min chart has formed a triangle and we should look for a break.
• A break below the MP at 1.3150 will confirm my thoughts on the EUR and its weakness.

EURGBP
• Fallen a long way and 0.9030 offering the key support it needs.
• Not interested buying into the 4hr 20ma, WP and MP so will wait and look to add to my short on break of the 0.9000 level.

JPYs
The expected retracements happened yesterday.
We are in limbo as they have only retraced 50% of what is expected.
If CABLE and EURUSD fall further expect the JPY pairs to go as well.
Watch USDJPY closely.

 

[danarm]

Ok retracements have happened and pips made...

Well done team. Must run.

D

PS Meant to say i lost just under 30 pips this morning trying to jump into CABLE before the support. Silly but knew the risk. Managed to make it back and more.

 

[danarm]

I was only away for 3 working days and looking at some of the spread moves it could have been 3 weeks. By watching CNN and reading the newspaper coverage on the G20 summit one could sense the optimism in the air and I was not overly surprised by the extent of the rally. One of the positive spins for CIS corporates for the last 9 months or so has been the extremely low probability of any indigestion caused by supply (as spreads were Super wide!). This is no longer the case as spreads have tightened in so much that quasi sov issuance is a distinct possibility in the near future if the rally continues.The big picture hasn't really changed much. The only thing I will concede is that a decent part of this recession has been psychological ie it has been about people's perception of the world as opposed to the reality which has of course made this whole episode that much worse. Amazingly I am now hearing several people talking about buying property in the UK even though prices in some areas are only off by 15% from the peak (offer side). Property in the UK is no where near at the stage it is in the US ie there are huge amounts of foreclosures and forced selling pushing down prices at an alarming rate rather that the drip drip lower we are seeing at the moment. What I am trying to say is that until you see forced selling of an asset class there is no rush to buy it. I don't know if I am losing the plot but every one is banging on about inflation and how prices should rise from here (yes I know central banks are printing money!) but I think prices need to come off further not rally from here. Are you telling me a rubbish frothy coffee is justified to cost £3 (real cost?), or the Ft for £2 (the sun costs 30p and is a happier read!), or 1/2 pint of lager at 8 Euros (I'd rather drink tap water) in a Portuguese golf club. Like it or not prices are still too expensive and as competition increases amongst business fighting for survival prices will have to drop. I could be wrong of course but for that to be the case, we will need to see consumer debt reduction, job creation and property appreciation. Sorry to mention CNBC as I listen to it all day, but talk of a V shaped recovery after the largest debt bubble in history is simply preposterous! Obviously earnings season is upon us, I have already talked about good results from the financials I am not sure the corporates will be as encouraging plus after a 20% plus rally in stocks how much of this good news is in the price? Easter also fast approaching, I expect further position squaring and reduced liquidity the next couple of days.

Mr P....

 

[danarm]

Good evening all

Please remember what stage of the cycle we are in...Its retracement week!!!

Last week everyone made a lot of pips with the main trend...This week we are dealing with retracements (against the main trend) so its going to be slightly more difficult. Please do not forget this and do not take on the difficult trades if you are unsure.

When the retracements are over we will have another cracking week swing trading again. Its all about being patient and waiting for the best setups. You must be relaxed and realise you do not have to trade every second of the day.

See you tomorrow at 6.30am.

D

 

[ekanters]

Investing

Hi Dan,

It will need some time to digest the fall of the economy. Like here in the netherlands people still think they do not have a problem because they are not investing. Well gues what they are all investing big time. In their own houses. And My thoughts are you should not buy unless we see a bottom. Maybe my english is not good enough but when I understand that your thoughts are that the media is blowing things up I have to disagree. They have written to small to little. The real big drop in the economy has still to come.

Have fun,

Erik

Eh!! Read your story again and misunderstood some things. Yes deflation will kick in first and deep because all companies have to lower prices to survive. Inflation or let's say hyper inflation will kick in at a later stage.

 

[danarm]

Hi Dan,

It will need some time to digest the fall of the economy. Like here in the netherlands people still think they do not have a problem because they are not investing. Well gues what they are all investing big time. In their own houses. And My thoughts are you should not buy unless we see a bottom. Maybe my english is not good enough but when I understand that your thoughts are that the media is blowing things up I have to disagree. They have written to small to little. The real big drop in the economy has still to come.

Have fun,

Erik

Eh!! Read your story again and misunderstood some things. Yes deflation will kick in first and deep because all companies have to lower prices to survive. Inflation or let's say hyper inflation will kick in at a later stage.

Hi Erik

Mr P.... isn't me. Thats a friend of mine writing an end of day report. Thought i would share his thoughts.

Interesting as they are.

See ya tom.

D

 

[danarm]

Good morning all

Its midnight and annoyingly i am thinking of GBP. So far i am happy in how i have read GBP (even with all the negative fundamentals) but i am starting to think how further can it go???

USD has weaknened a little across the board and thats kept GBP and EUR higher. The weakness of the JPY has also kep USDJPY and GBPJPY bid.

So GBPJPY has moved 1000 pips since the cross but it needs to keep momentum or GBP will fall right back down again. This week is key with it being retracement week and it needs to hold support soon.

CABLEs key support line is in 1.4400/1.4500 region and feel this could be tested again. If it rallies from here at 1.4700 the market will be too long of GBP and the potential of a double top at 1.5000 will be on and could see more sellers come back into the market. Either way i am having my doubts so happy to have banked some good pips over the last few days. I will definitely buy in the BUY ZONE and get you guys in as well but i need to be patient until we enter the ZONE.

The three trades have been keeping me up late into the nights due to Asia's volatility, which is annoying...

However still like EURGBP lower..Some of you guys are still short which is great and i still see my target at 0.8500 to be hit. This one i am happy with for now and havent reduced this in a big way. Hopefully i am right on this one....

I might regret closing the majority of my long GBP positions but i am uneasy at the moment and feel a further pullback could be on. The charts are in interesting setups for tomorrow and could argue it both ways. Either way at least i can rest a little...

Retracement weeks always ask more questions and lets see what the London Open brings to us! I will not be trading if the probability is not in our favour.

Sleep well for the remaining few hours!

D

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Wednesday 8th April

Good morning team

Been up all night thinking about GBP all night!! Closed the final part of my CABLE and GBPJPY positions and only holding EURGBP as longer term play now. Target remains the same at 0.8500… When we hit support in GBP again I will look to get back in for a tight bounce.

CABLE
• Its retracement week… Support around the 1.4400 level and this should be tested.
• The position of GBPUSD isn’t great this am and stuck in no mans land.
• Looks weak below the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma but WP is the problem.
• Probability isn’t swinging our way here so we must be very careful on any trade on this currency.
• Always best to sell at highs and buy off lows. When you are in the middle zone probability of a successful trade is thin.
• Watching closely…

EURUSD
• I like EUR lower against GBP and the USD.
• MP will offer support but any pullback to the 4hr 20ma and we should look for short plays after the break of the MP.

EURGBP
• EURGBP is moving aggressively lower after breaking support yesterday at 0.9030.
• No entry level at the moment on short term book.
• Need to be patient and wait for pullbacks to the 60min 20ma.

JPYs
The 3 look weak on the retracements.
I do not like trading currencies around BIG FIGURES like 100.00 in USDJPY. The market becomes lost so be careful around here.
GBPJPY looks very interesting sitting below the 4hr 20ma and looks best for a short. We need to watch USDJPY and CABLE for assistance.

Verdict
Not easy out there with these setups. Retracements weeks are always tougher to trade.
Looking for further weakness in GBP today against JPY and USD

 

[danarm]

Quiet day for me...

Waiting for 60min charts to line up and then i will jump in!!!

All explained this am.

Running out to lunch so i dont miss anything.

D

 

[danarm]

Well no trading for me today...

Looking for these reversals in the JPYs and EUR and GBP.

Not far away. Look for break of the 60min 20ma.

See u.

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Hairs on my chest!

Hi Dan, hi all

Well, at the risk of repeating your last post Dan, no trades for me either. But do you know what, I am really pleased about that. This time last year I would have been hunting down a 5 minute trade and losing pips as fast as my confidence.

I didn't see anything handsome enough to tempt me today (your Live Room webcam was offline ). Monday caught some pips and yesterday was great with some clear cut trades too, today, nah, nothing for me.

Boy, have I learnt a lot, mainly the patience to wait for the big pip trades. Am I turning into you Dan? Got some hairs on my chest... scary.

RS

 

[ekanters]

Getting there

Hi Dan,

I am getting there and getting there fast. Took me some time to get all these 20, 50, 60, etctera in my head and not to forget triggers and stuff. But I am getting the hang of it and that's all because of you guys. At the moment short eurusd again from that golden cross.

Anyway all in al it means you guys are stuck with me. I am here to stay.

One last remark: I miss the music. fftopic:

Erik

 

[Rollingstone]

Pesky gbp

Been up all night thinking about GBP!

Dan

Surely to goodness you can think of something else at night rather than GBP!

Take up knitting, do the ironing, worm the dog... don't be such a saddo!

Hee hee

Cheeky RS!

 

[danarm]

Arh good to see some chat going on the thread...Lovely jubbly!!!

Had a few cheeky trades as i was leaving the office and came home to find myself up a few cheeky pips. Remember what i was talking about this am in the live room? Patience paid off and waited for the 60min trigger and looked at the 5min for an entry on a break of the 60min 20ma and ended up with some little piparoonies in GBPJPY, USDJPY & EURJPY. I havent traded CABLE due to the WP but glad with the JPY trades overall. Not going to hold these overnight due to the volatility on Asia...

I am going to be asking all of you tomorrow morning who traded these moves, as we talked about these 123s extensively? I was actually on the phone to one of you, talking you through the JPY trades at the time and that they would kick off when USDJPY breaks 99.95. I am hoping that a high % of you took these...

See u tom...

D

 

[ekanters]

Pips

Allready said in the previous post.Short from the golden cross. No need to ask me tomorrow morning.

Erik

 

[danarm]

Allready said in the previous post.Short from the golden cross. No need to ask me tomorrow morning.

Erik

Now thats what i want to hear...

I hope there are more of you... I explained it as well as i could.

Happy days!! See u tom.

D