It's All About The Pips...

[elitejets]

Hi Mauzj

There is no secret except beginners luck. I am sure any day now I will fall flat on my face and Marg will call Seriously when I started I traded quite big lots relative to my capital and a couple of lossed fixed that. Now I am pretty strict with my risk and I don't worry so much about a loss and I am more likely to bung one on. or ride a trade to see where it goes.

I would have loved to enter this a few bars earlier but I entered at 2Am my time and I had only just got up, I entered as soon as I saw the chart. I would have liked cable too but I was a bit slow. I thought about sticking one on the night before actually but was not feeling so confident on Thursday.

Nicola

Hi Nicola,

Well done on another solid week. I've been looking at your charts to try and learn more about what makes you so successful.

For your first GBPCHF trade, what made you enter when you did, rather than in one of the bars a few periods before? I can't see what conditions make your entry bar different to those before it, and would really appreciate it if you could shed some light on the matter.

Thanks,

Mauzj.

 

[elitejets]

Happy Valentines Pipsters!

From the Ft blog

 

[Rollingstone]

Closet Larries

LARRIES!!

Hey girl friend! Great to hear from you. :clap:

Aaaah, the Scorpy knows everything and has never forgotten you - I felt the lurrvve!

Come out of the closet, oh, I mean hiding, I miss your wacky sense of humour!

Scorpy RS

 

[Rollingstone]

Size matters

Hi all
Its such a shame when you know people are so close to nailing this but give up because they have over exposed themselves with poor money management in the early days.

Start with tiny tiny amounts and learn for the first 2 to 3 months. Its all about holding yourself back and proving you can do it to yourself. Once you conquer greed and fear and not wanting to be rich overnight the rest is simple.

Learn, learn & learn more and success will come and above all never give up!!!

D

Once again Dan, words of wisdom from the Master.

I am no expert and have learnt the hard way that it is not just money management that is key, but having enough in your account when you start out to enable you to take trades without the fear of losing. Money management (which includes the size of your account) goes hand in hand with confidence - if you lack one, you generally lack the other. In this case, I'm afraid size does matter.

In my humble opinion you don't need £thousands to trade, but ensuring your account is healthy to start with, along with a good grasp of the strategy, makes not only those nasty hurdles of fear and greed much easier to overcome but allows you to make much better trading decisions and choices (also known as patience and discipline I believe).

There's so much more to trading than "bunging one on" and risking a high percentage of your capital - patience, discipline, study and money management = confidence and success. Once your account grows, you have grasped the strategy and gained experience then, yeehaa, go for it if that is your trading style (and we are all different), but for those just starting out listen to His Master's Voice for he is a wise sage indeed.

RS

 

[Henryatkin]

Rollingstone .... that reminds me of Larry Hite in "Market Wizards". He never risks more than 1% of his capital on any one trade, so he doesn't ever have to worry about the consequences of a losing trade and always sleeps at night. The 1% is the risk not the stake, so the value from his entry price to his stop is 1% of his trading account.

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Some very goof advice being passed around...

I am hungry for pips so be prepared for monday at 6.50am.

Lets work as a team and eat those pips b4 breakfast.

See u then.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning Trade - Monday 16th February

Morning all

Trust you had a good weekend…

Short GBPJPY and EURJPY on breaks of support and looking at USDCAD for break.

Trade with the 60min 20ma as much as possible and limit risk with stop behind.


CABLE

• Trend is down with 60min 20ma crossing the 60min 50ma.
• Support on 15min chart has been broken.
• Risk is high at the moment with the 60min 20ma over 120 pips away at 1.4300
• Watch GBPCHF and GBPJPY for further GBP weakness.

GBPCHF

• Trend is down with 60min 20ma crossing the 60min 50ma on the downside.
• 15min support at 1.6530 level. Need a break here for confirmation of further GBP weakness.

GBPJPY***

• Trend is down and breaking MP at 130.50 as we speak.
• Previous low at 130.00 and needs to break here for confirmation that GBP will weaken further.
• 60min 20ma at 131.00 so risk is around 100 pips.

EURGBP

• Trend is flat but trying to creep up with GBP weakness. Problems lies that EURUSD is falling as well.
• 60min 20ma showing signs of support and a break back above 0.9005 should signal further weakness in GBP.
• Watch GBPUSD and GBP across the board for direction.

USDJPY

• This is our curve ball as trend is up at the moment with support above the 60min 20ma.
• Need to be careful of a fake out and see if GBPJPY breaks down and drags USDJPY with it. However if USDJPY does move up then we need to be careful of GBPJPY on the downside. Patience is needed…
• Any break back below the 60min 20ma would help GBPJPY through its support at 130.00.


EURJPY***

• Trend is down and following the shape of GBPJPY.
• Support at 116.80 and needs to break here for further EUR weakness.
• 60min 20ma at 117.50 so risk will be 70 pips.

EURUSD

• Trend is down and 60min 20ma is over 80 pips away.
• The 15min support line has been broken but wary this am that the 15min 20ma crossed the 60min 20ma over 160 pips away.
• Looking for selling opportunities and would prefer to wait to trade closer to the 60min 20ma.

USDCAD

• With GBP weakening this am the USD should find support against the CAD.
• 1.2450 would signal a break of previous high.
• The 60min 20ma is just below at 1.2400 so risk is limited

AUDUSD

• Trend is down and broken support at 0,.6500.
• DS1 too close and looking to trade closer to the 60min 20ma.
• Look for selling opportunities when they arise.


Dan

 

[tantra]

Hi Dan. there is a gap on cable over the weekend from Friday's close and last night's open. Does that gap look like its gonna be filled anytime soon?

 

[klastica]

Hi dan,

I started reading your thread a few weeks ago (got about 20 pages in). I will get round to reading the whole thread when I get a chance.
When you started it you was living in Spain with your family and you needed to make 50 pips a day to live as you wanted. To this end you was trading about 2 to 4 hours a day.
I read some of the more recent pages and was shocked to see you aiming for 500 pips in one day (did i get this right?).
Are you trading more than when you started the thread?
Is your situation still the same?
Are you making more or betting smaller ammounts?

I'm just interested as soon i'll be moving to Spain and would like to do something like this to generate income.

Mike

 

[elitejets]

brent Crude Breakout

See picture

 

[danarm]

Hi dan,

I started reading your thread a few weeks ago (got about 20 pages in). I will get round to reading the whole thread when I get a chance.
When you started it you was living in Spain with your family and you needed to make 50 pips a day to live as you wanted. To this end you was trading about 2 to 4 hours a day.
I read some of the more recent pages and was shocked to see you aiming for 500 pips in one day (did i get this right?).
Are you trading more than when you started the thread?
Is your situation still the same?
Are you making more or betting smaller ammounts?

I'm just interested as soon i'll be moving to Spain and would like to do something like this to generate income.

Mike

Hi Mike

Good to hear from you...

No nothing has changed. As long as i make 250 pips a week i am happy. That can pay the bills and anymore pips are a bonus.

I look to keep it very simple, consistent and controlled.

Its Nicola who is the one who makes the 500 pips a day.

Ok dinner time.

D

 

[danarm]

See picture

Hi Nicola

Nice breakout...

Finally we have some movement.

See u tom.

D

 

[elitejets]

Its Nicola who is the one who makes the 500 pips a day.
D

I think it is fairly safe to say we are not trading the same stakes!
I am working on building my confidence and seeing if I can make enough for dog food.
Nic

 

[danarm]

London Open - Tuesday 17th February

Good morning all

Asia has had a lot of fun and big moves were made…Risk today of pullbacks so be aware.

Its not easy this morning…Remember to trade with the trend as much as possible and reduce your risk by trading close to the 60min 20ma.


CABLE
• Trend is down and below 60min and 4hr 20ma.
• Surprisingly this currency moved the least last night with the EUR taking most of the impact.
• 1.4150 is support and where we stand at 1.4200 makes CABLE very hard to trade this am.
• It does look weak this morning but be aware of the 1.4150 support.


GBPJPY
• 60min chart looks messy with close support below (4hr20ma, Daily 20ma, MP) and close resistance above (4hr 50ma, Daily 50ma, WP)
• Need to be patient here and wait for a break of these levels.


GBPCHF
• A solid rally last night and now holding 4hr 20ma.
• Not comfortable with GBP across the board today so will wait for GBPJPY to make its move to show us direction.
• Watch GBPCHF above the 1.6700 level for a sign of strength in GBP


EURGBP
• Classic break lower yesterday with the 60min 20ma crossing the 60min 50ma.
• Hard to trade at this level with the market oversold in ASIA.
• Look for further weakness here when triggers line up to downside and look for break of the 4hr 50ma.


EURUSD
• As mentioned yesterday the EUR is under extreme pressure and I and many are bearish on this currency.
• The important 1.2700 has been broken and we should look for selling opportunities with the trend.
• The price is too far from the 60min 20ma to trade with the trend and risk of a pullback is too high so best to leave for now unless you play the pullback.
• Watch the cross of the 7ma with the 15min 20ma but again a very risky trade.





EURJPY
• EURJPY will be torn with USDJPY strong and EURUSD weak.
• EUR is weak and USDJPY could pullback this am so you could see EURJPY weaken a little here but I am not overly convinced. Watch USDJPY for any pullback.


USDJPY
• Looks supported and as mentioned this will continue to climb back to the 100.00 then the 110.00 level.
• Price is too far from the 60min 20ma for any play at the moment so we need a pullback before looking for any long plays.
• Remember to play as close to the 60min 20ma to reduce risk and exposure.


AUDUSD
• Heavy selling overnight and triggers too low for an entry.
• Look to trade with trend but need to see retracement before an entry.


USDCAD
• The USD is finding support and USDCAD is lining up the 1.2550 resistance level.
• Wait for next 60min trigger for momentum to break this level.
• If GBPUSD breaks the 1.4150 support level, USDCAD should make its attack.


Dan

 

[danarm]

New York Open - Tuesday 17th February

Good afternoon all and welcome to the new guys/girls.

This afternoon is going to be geared around the TIC numbers coming out at 2PM, expected at plus 20 billion opposed to last month’s minus 21.7 billion.
Usually very difficult to gauge since numbers are so off the mark but the market will be waiting for this so not expecting any fireworks until then.

GBPUSD-
• Boxed between 60m 20&50
• Need to see break of 14300 to move up or 14200 to move down.
• Triple bottom on 60m looks tough nut to crack with averages so far away.

EURUSD-
• Can’t go long until 60m 20ema is broken, can’t short above 12600.
• USDCHF looks better to upside so favouring EURUSD down opposed to up but not great set-up.

USDJPY-
• Will find support if breaking 92.10
• Not interested in short into all averages.

USDCHF-
• Looks very appealing to upside.
• Possible double top on 60m but highs are 60 pips away.
• EURUSD looking like has no intentions of doing anything other than sideways to down.

GBPJPY-
• A break of WP could see this higher but 4hr & daily 50sma’s just above so be careful.

GBPCHF-
• Also looking pretty bid with decent UK numbers out this morning.
• Headed for WP by the looks of things.

EURJPY-
• Bounced off support on 60m
• Needs to retrace to 60m 20ema before looking for further shorts.

EURCHF-
• Would be interested in shorting at 60m 20ema again.
• Waiting for DT at 14825 region

Verdict-

All depending on news I like the potential of USDJPY if it breaks up through 92.15.
Nothing else setting the world alight due to big moves hence sketchy notes.
USDCHF would be a good alternative, both LONG

Have a good afternoon.

Zak

 

[tantra]

Hi guys..

I'm still bothered by the gap on cable.... the gap from Friday's close to sunday night's open... i was always under the impression that gaps like these needed to be filled.. can someone clarify for me?

 

[pipin]

Hi guys..

I'm still bothered by the gap on cable.... the gap from Friday's close to sunday night's open... i was always under the impression that gaps like these needed to be filled.. can someone clarify for me?

Nothing is 100%!

If it was we would all be betting our shirt on gaps and not bothering with anything else.

I am not being aggresive just trying to offer an opinion.

HTH

 

[KillPhil08]

It's 80-90% of the time.

 

[danarm]

A City Trader...

Oh dear, what a day! Well I will start with Kazakh banks, the good newsis that we are approaching zero so the pace of the sell off must slowsoon. The bad news is that there is a lot of pain out there right nowand as prices head towards zero more and more stop losses or margincalls are triggered making the situation much worse than it should be.Bottom line is that this will get worse before it gets better and evenwhen the news improves the rally will be slow and painful as thetechnical's are awful and the investor base is shrinking fast. Russiancorporates are still seriously random, I saw a couple of scary size bidlists today that will not easily be absorbed by the street however thereare still pockets of buying out there by locals who are gagging toreinvest their dollars as they are still short Roubles plus for now thehand still has a little ammo left. Valuations are all over the placeand reflects the awful liquidity and lack of street positioning. Here'san example why we shouldn't look at ratings. Ireland that's theRepublic or Ireland the Emerald isle is rated AAA (that's the best riskyou can have for the aliens reading this) trades at 400 over. Turkeythat is the country that's part in Europe partly Asia is rated BB-(that's well to use an old fixed income term "Junk") trades at 500 over,makes perfect sense to me but maybe not to the rating agencies. Thereare plenty of other examples like that out there, that is obviouslyreflected by the lack of liquidity and lack of hedge funds around toexploit anomalies in the market. The big wide world is a mess, the Telegraph article over the weekendabout Western Europe's exposure to Eastern Europe has really put theskids up people, nothing new in my book but apparently it was forothers. I have said it before and I will say it again the Euro is onebig disaster waiting to happen, if you think you can have one currencyand one interest rate for all these different countries through arecession/depression and will be ok then you are smoking somethingillegal. One final word on the stock market which is very worrying.When we hit the November lows last year it was on the back of thecollapse of Lehman's and potential systemic failure of the whole bankingsystem. We are cr*pping out at the moment for what reason? If mydaughter has gone to bed (if not I'll be watching Postman Pat or MickeyMouse!) I will be glued to channel 505 (CNBC) between 8pm and 9pm,tonight's close is very important, if the PPT don't do their stufftomorrow and the rest of the week could get very ugly.

Mr P.....

 

[tantra]

Nothing is 100%!

If it was we would all be betting our shirt on gaps and not bothering with anything else.

I am not being aggresive just trying to offer an opinion.

HTH

Fair enough. Just thought it was part of technical analysis...

Still learning!