It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Afternoon Trade - Tuesday 10th February


CABLE

• A lot depends on USDJPY and GBPJPY so keep an eye for on these for direction
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma. Wait for breakout.

EURUSD

• A solid rally this am and 123 a triangle is forming.
• Look for support off the 60min 20ma and a break back above the DP for a retest of the old high at 1.3075.
• Any break back below the WP at 1.2890 would signal a retest of the lows.


EURGBP

• Strong EUR this am against USD and GBP.
• Watch the 60min chart for support and a break back through the 4hr 20ma.
• Any break back below the 60min 20ma would signal a retest of the lows.


AUDUSD

• Boxed between the 4hr 20m and 60min 20ma.
• A lot of support below with MP and WP so not looking great for selling opportunities at present. Play the gaps very carefully if they arise.
• If AUD rallies this afternoon look for break above the DP at 0.6750 for a retest to the highs.

USDCAD

• Got hurt with shorting USDCAD this am. Its at the DP as we speak and break could be on but reluctant to jump in again.
• Will be watching carefully and watching further USD weakness in the market place.

GOLD

• The 60min 20ma and DP have been broken and uptrend is now back on after a very short lived down move.
• Look for a 123 long if it can hold above this WP level.

Good luck
Dan

 

[danarm]

Hi

Well made back my pips late am and afternoon after my shabby london open.

Wasnt easy and had to take risk into 4hr 20ma´s in CABLE but glad to do have made it back.

Flat for the day and i am happy with that.

See you all tom.

D

 

[danarm]

Hey Dan

If you have a bad morning only once every 2 months, that's pretty good going, I'd say!

We still think you're great

See you tomorrow for some great pipping

Julie

Thanks Julie

The main thing is is that we are up at the end of the month.

See u tom am.

D

 

[KillPhil08]

 

[danarm]

Morning Trade - Wednesday 11th February

Good morning all

Well done to those who held the GBP move yesterday...

Lesson

1) Important to look back and watch for that 60min Moving Average cross over… A very powerful sign!!!
2) Try and have stop losses behind the 60min 20ma as often as possible.
3) The 4hr 20ma is a key MA. Look for breaks of this for true direction as seen yesterday.



CABLE

• A powerful move yesterday with the 4hr 20ma crossing on GBPJPY, USDJPY and GBPUSD
• The price has broken the WP and MP so we are back in our downtrend again.
• The 4hr 20ma is a little oversold so we need to be aware of a small pullback.
• As mentioned we are looking for a firm resistance eg the 60min 20ma so we can protect ourselves with our stop.
• Look for a more weakness today but lets be patient on our short term book and look for correct entries etc with triggers
• 1.4575 the WP is the 1st line of major resistance

EURUSD

• EURUSD has held firm with GBP weakness so yes EURGBP has popped.
• 60min chart suggesting support line at 1.2850 level.
• Any break below the 15min 50ma would signal weakness into the EUR.
• It’s a messy looking chart overall and feel GBP will be the focus again this am.

EURGBP

• With EURUSD holding EURGBP has been well supported.
• 60min chart suggests a little overbought on the 84 CCI and trigger is too high so worried about momentum.
• Wait for next trigger for another push higher
• The 4h4 50ma should hold as support at 0.8875 level.
• Lets wait for the 4hr 20ma to catch up to make a real test to break back above the Daily 20ma and 50ma around the 0.9000 level.




USDCAD

• 60min chart is still vvv messy.
• 1.2500 / 1.2550 is heavy resistance.
• Look for clear break of resistance level for move higher
• At moment will stay away as 60min chart looks unappealing

AUDUSD

• Boxed between the 4hr 50ma and 20ma
• Previous low at 0.6500. A break through here would signal a push towards the WS1 level and DS1 at 0.6450 for 1st level of support.

GOLD

• 60min chart has a strong resistance level at $918.00
• Look for a break through this for a further push higher
• I still like this to $1,000
• Look for support off the 4hr 20ma and use triggers on 60min chart

Enjoy
Dan

 

[danarm]

Morning Trade - Thursday 12th February

Good morning London

Ok let’s watch the JPYs this am for their respective breaks as they will give us a little direction.

Would like to see …

USDJPY break 89.65
GBPJPY break 128.67
EURJPY break 115.72

-------------------------------------------------------------

CABLE

• 60min chart suggests a downtrend with the price below the 60min 20ma.
• Any break back above the 60min 20ma and DP at 1.4408 would suggest a pullback to the DR1 level at 1.4500 level.
• 1.4300 is official support and any break below here would signal further weakness in GBP.
• Watch the trigger as could get in earlier with tight stop above the 60min 20ma
• This will depend on GBPJPY, GBPCHF and any weakness across the board in GBP.

EURUSD

• A messy looking chart…A dog chasing its tail has more direction!!!
• 4hr MA´s are flat and could break either way
• A 60min triangle is forming and you should wait for the break.


EURGBP

• 60min 20ma holding support but I do wonder if it is running out of steam.
• A Break above WR1 would signal further strength in the EUR above the 0.9000 level.
• If GBPUSD finds support and breaks its respective DP, watch EURGBP test and break it’s DP at 0.8950 for a test of its 60min 50ma down at 0.8930 level.

USDCAD

• The 1.4540 level was again tested for the 4th time yesterday with the weak CAD figures.
• The 60min 20ma was too far from the break for a real push through and with GBP having a quiet day the USD couldn’t power up.
• If USD strengthens this am look for a break of the WR1 and then a test of the 1.2540 and break of this level.

AUDUSD

• Still boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• A small fake out yesterday with a test of the previous low at 0.6580.
• Look for a break below 0.6575 for a true break to test the WS1 around the 0.6400 level
• Any break back above the 60min 20ma would signal strength back in to the AUD but confirm this with a 123 play.

GOLD

• Well done to those who are still long
• The old high has been broken and our target of $1,000 to start with is not too far away.
• 60min chart is overbought now and $950.00 will be resistance for the time being.
• $930.00 the old resistance will be immediate support just below the DP at $932.00.

Hungry for pips!!!

Dan

 

[danarm]

Morning JPY Desk - Thursday 12th February


Good morning all.

I hope you are all well.

The cheeky little USDJPY reversal play yesterday P.M turned out ok in the end, so glad that some of you profited from an otherwise quiet session.
This morning doesn’t show too much promise unless certain levels are broken.

USDJPY
• Back below all the averages with 4hr 20ema making it’s way toward the 4hr 50 for that big crossover.
• Big support line coming in from lows of January to lows of yesterday.
• WS1 directly below the support line so needs to break both to see a move lower.
• Watch for break of 89.65

GBPJPY
• Sitting waiting for extra downward pressure coming from 4hr 20 which is trying to cross 4hr 50
• All m.a’s overhead blocking any assault to the upside.
• No longer oversold
• Weekly S1 at 128.65 so needs to break that level before looking closer

EURJPY
• A few sly pips poached by some yesterday playing the reversal
• Still sat on 4hr 50sma
• Low of Monday at 115.65 needs to go before a push much lower.
• Waiting for break of .95 which would then see the push to the .65 and possibly beyond.
• A bit messy with EURUSD looking like it’s not sure where to go.

Summary

Just playing the waiting game on these pairs at the moment.
Not interested in looking for long positions, only shorts and these levels need to be broken before I get toooo excited.
The break of 115.95 on EURJPY is the favoured pick, with a view to adding to the position if 115.65 gets hit.

You’ll be pleased to know that I will have more viewing space available to me for NYC, so we’ll cover all the usual pairs, not just Yens.

Have a great morning.

Zak

 

[danarm]

Afternoon JPY Desk - Thursday 12th February

Good afternoon all.

Although dan will do the notes for ozzie and cad etc, I will be covering them and keeping an eye on them from today.

Just for the record then, so as not to cause any confusion, we will cover the following…

GBPUSD GBPJPY GBPCHF
EURUSD EURJPY EURCHF
USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD
AUDUSD

James will pop in from time to time to talk about Gold.

Obviously I will just be keeping an eye on the pairs and really want us to focus on the 2 or 3 that I feel are going to move. I don’t want to get caught in the trap of flitting from one chart to the next, confusing everyone and missing set-ups. It’s been tried and tested and simply doesn’t work.

This afternoon we see US unemployment claims & retail sales numbers in the next 15mins so keep purse strings locked for the moment.

USDJPY
• 4hr golden cross looking like it wants to happen on the 60m chart.
• WS1 directly below.
• Needs to break below 89.65
• Not interested in long

GBPJPY
• Golden cross happened this morning and looking weak
• Need to wait for retracement to 60m 20 as big falls need some consolidation
• Wait for USDJPY for direction but not looking for longs

EURJPY
• Hasn’t quite managed to hit the WS1 level yet
• Good cross looking likely of 4hr 20&50 indicating more downside potential.
• A break of 115.00 will be a good indication with EURUSD following suit.

EURUSD
• Has made new lows and with 4hr 20 headed toward crossing down through the 50 more falls look inevitable.
• Needs to break 1.2800 to convince me

EURCHF
• Entered this one at around 14930 anticipating the break down.
• Need to wait for retracement on 15m chart now we’ve had a little move.

GBPUSD
• Still in a strong downtrend sterling is in big trouble again after having a cracking week last week.
• Can’t touch it at the moment

Summary-sterling still looking very weak across the board but having falling so far already it’s impossible to just to jump in.
With US figures coming in better than expected on the retail sales front USDJPY moving up is going to possibly present some difficulty in finding short opportunities with any Yen pair.
USDCAD does look quite appealing if it breaks south through the weekly pivot at 1.1580

Have a good afternoon

 

[c_c405]

What's left in the shorts?

Do you think there is much more downside on some of these pairs? EUR/JPY if breaks you WS how far down you think it will go? GBP/JPY will head towards the lower end near 120 or so I think - but can't be too sure, USD/CAD is too mid level to trade yet. I'm short USD at 1.30-ish long at 1.20-ish

The JPY is way overvalued and overbought - I'm more long than short but timing is important

I'm short on GBP/JPY @ 135.66 and I am looking for it to break lower and head to the lowe end of this range. If support holds on this pair I think we'll see a climb back to the 140's

 

[theiceman]

Hello.

Almost a perfect day, made around 200 pips this am session, turned off my trading platform and came back to the pm session and started by making around 60 pips on E/U and E/J only to throw back almost 100 on E/J and G/J bad bad judgment, very poor money management.

But lesson learned, very good management to walk away after making 200 this morning, the plan is to do so in the future, both am and pm session.

Reason for lost pips on E/J: was in with a 1/4 on the break at 115.18 short, and when it hit 114.95 wanted to add the rest 3/4, only for it too turn in my face, and instead of cut early, I let it run far to long and end up losing 70 pips on that on alone.... bad bad bad...

....but anyway, 2nd day in a row where I shut down the platform in profit, and that's new for me.

I have a weekly target of 250 pips, which I was very close to when I lost those pips, this will not stop me in getting them tomorrow thou, I am very pleased with the fx500 club and what I've learned there.

The most important thing I've learned so far is discipline and patient, and I now know that these two elements are probably the most important things in trading, as a bonus follows good money management, which somehow comes in naturally as long as i keep emotion out of this game.

Thank you Dan, Zak, James, and all the other guy and girls in the room.

Take care
Einar Ben.

 

[danarm]

Hello.

Almost a perfect day, made around 200 pips this am session, turned off my trading platform and came back to the pm session and started by making around 60 pips on E/U and E/J only to throw back almost 100 on E/J and G/J bad bad judgment, very poor money management.

But lesson learned, very good management to walk away after making 200 this morning, the plan is to do so in the future, both am and pm session.

Reason for lost pips on E/J: was in with a 1/4 on the break at 115.18 short, and when it hit 114.95 wanted to add the rest 3/4, only for it too turn in my face, and instead of cut early, I let it run far to long and end up losing 70 pips on that on alone.... bad bad bad...

....but anyway, 2nd day in a row where I shut down the platform in profit, and that's new for me.

I have a weekly target of 250 pips, which I was very close to when I lost those pips, this will not stop me in getting them tomorrow thou, I am very pleased with the fx500 club and what I've learned there.

The most important thing I've learned so far is discipline and patient, and I now know that these two elements are probably the most important things in trading, as a bonus follows good money management, which somehow comes in naturally as long as i keep emotion out of this game.

Thank you Dan, Zak, James, and all the other guy and girls in the room.

Take care
Einar Ben.

Hi all

Well done Iceman...

Its all coming together nicely. I have some great ideas on how i can improve as a teacher and to make sure my points get across to you all.

Well done to you Einar thats great to hear... For those who are patient and get over the first 3 to 4 hurdles the rest is plain sailing and pips will flow in a controlled and consistent manor.

Its such a shame when you know people are so close to nailing this but give up because they have over exposed themselves with poor money management in the early days. Start with tiny tiny amounts and learn for the first 2 to 3 months..Its all about holding yourself back and proving you can do it to yourself. Once you conquer greed and fear and not wanting to be rich overnight the rest is simple.

Learn, learn & learn more and success will come and above all never give up!!!

Anyway i feel better now as a teacher and learning a lot from you guys which is great. I now have to concentrate my energies to those who arent quiet there and get them over the 1st hurdle.

Lets kick this on and make good pips tom and bring on next week. I love a challenge and helping others make pips is a joy to watch.

Ok must cook dinner or i will be eating the dogs food!!

D

 

[theiceman]

I'm very confident that in the recent future it will all come together very nicely and that I will easily be making 250 pips pr. week, as long as I follow several rules I've set my self,

Target 250 pips a week
Risk 2% pr. Trade
Never more than 5 open trades at the time.
Trading time London and US openings
Strategy/Rules FX500Club

And when adding to that , something I wrote here a couple of weeks ago....

....the name of the game is patience, discipline and good money management...

...well, then I can't see how I can go wrong...

Take care
Einar Ben.

 

[danarm]

Morning Trade - Friday 13th February

Good morning all

Its Friday and lets play sensible today…

Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage and play the right side of it…

CABLE

• 60min chart is not looking that attractive on the upside with MP, WP, 4hr 20ma, 4hr 50ma etc just above. However support seems to be coming back into the market with USDJPY and GBPJPY showing signs of strength.
• The 15min chart shows the 60min 20ma close to crossing the 60min 50ma which will boost GBP this am. At present look to buy off the 60min 20ma with stop above
• Any cross back down through the 60min 20ma and DP at 1.4265 level would mean further weakness in GBP and I would look to sell on the break of these levels.
• The 4hr 20ma at the DR1 will be prime resistance at 1.4420 and look for a break here. Any pullback onto the 60min 20ma could offer a better entry.
• Watch GBPJPY and GBPCHF for help in direction in GBP.

EURUSD

• 60min chart is very messy. A solid break out of triangle yesterday afternoon and the strong support was met at WS1 at 1.2750.
• Where to now? Hard to read direction…Best to work off 15min chart and use the 60min 20ma to your advantage.
• 15min chart showing signs of life this am above the WP but I need EURJPY to play ball so keep a firm eye here for EUR direction this morning.

EURGBP

• 60min chart suggests a lack of direction with GBP not quite sure which way to move over the last 24 hours.
• 0.9000 seems to be holding and any break above the MP at 0.9090 would signal further strength but you would need GBPUSD to weaken and at the moment GBP seems to be holding.
• Look for further strength in EURGBP if CABLE breaks back down below its 60min 20ma.

USDCAD

• 60min chart suggests strong resistance at the 1.2540 level. How many times can it hit this level.
• If the USD weakens against GBP this morning then USD should weaken here and a pullback would be on down to the DS1 at 1.2365.
• Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage here.

AUDUSD

• 2 breaks yesterday in AUDUSD and banked just under 100 pips for 50%. Bit surprised my balance has been stopped out back above the 0.6500 level and AUD is showing a little bit of life again.
• The 60min chart is not looking great but a break back above the WP at 0.6600 should see a break up to the MP at 0.6675 for starters.
• Again it all depends on the USD and what direction it is driven this am.
• Keep a firm eye on this today.

Dan

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk - Friday 13th February

Good morning all.

It’s Friday, so looking for minimum of 200 pips today to finish up rather sweetly.
Still holding the GBPJPY from yesterday’s PM session through 130.00.
Many are talking USDJPY back up to 110.00 so I might just hold this on the back of that speculation, knowing that all GBPUSD has to do is hold it’s own for my position to give me 500 pips or more.

USDJPY
• Only has the weekly pivot at 91.00 to content with then it’s potentially all systems go.
• Wait for break of previous high at 91.35

GBPJPY
• Too much resistance overhead to warrant new long position
• Need to break up through 4hr 50sma at 131.30 before you can start looking for the WP area at 133.00 as a target

EURJPY
• Appears to be a bit of room between WP at 117.50 and MP at 118.60
• Need USDJPY and EURUSD to push up but both have a lot of daylight up ahead so hopeful
• Stop needs to be behind weekly pivot if it does push up
• Waiting for some consolidation first then a break of the .85 region.

GBPCHF
• With some temporary sterling strength re-emerging late on yesterday now looking good to upside
• 4hr 20&50 have crossed negatively so can only play the box between the 2
• 1.6675 is the level to look for here aiming for 4hr 20 at 1.6735, then the 50 at 1.6848

Summary……

Would like to see USDJPY break the .35 level and go long for a longer-term position.
Another one worthy of mention is EURCHF although we don’t cover it. I have an order to go long through the weekly pivot at 1.4985

Have a good morning,

Zak

 

[danarm]

JPY PM Desk - Friday 13th February

Good afternoon all.



A nice start to the day with everything bar EURCHF going according to plan.

Going to be stubborn and hold it. If it breaks the pivot then it’s dead but theres a slim chance it won’t and theres a difference of only 15 pips from 60m 50 to that pivot.

GBPJPY continued up in good form though, USDJPY broke up, EURJPY broke up, and finally GBPCHF done the business in fine fashion, so 200 target completely smashed. Now want 300 more !!!



USDJPY

In this from .30 and looks promising for some more.
Stop now at breakeven so a free ride.
15m trigger just coming in now so might be worth another go here with a tight 20pip stop.


GBPJPY

Had a big run and possibly not over yet. Banked part position but leaving rest open.
Can’t go long after so much green on 60m
Wait for retracement on 60m chart
Sterling has been very strong but could easily fall back


EURJPY

Played the gap between WP & MP for a cheeky few
60m looks interesting
Really needs EURUSD on our side but that particular pair needs to break above 12900 first.
Wait for trigger on 60m


GBPCHF

Still looking bid. A great easy straight-forward break of that 16665 from morning notes nailed that and both targets hit in good fashion.
Needs 60m retrace really and a potential double top on 15m could give opportunity to short from WP if it materializes.


USDCHF

Good to go north in my opinion
Breaking DP as I write, this might make a move to the resistance at 11670
Look for 123 on 5m or play break small and add later.


EURCHF

With Swiss weakness this once dead and buried trade is back on the menu.
Obvious level of WP needs to get broken at .85 as before
Unlucky to those spiked in and stopped out. not a massive loser and just unfortunate with Euro weakness creeping in.


Summary…..



EURUSD short through DP is one I am going for along with USDCHF long. More to follow.



Have a great afternoon


Zak

 

[elitejets]

My week was OK

Not a bad week and 930 pips after a bit of a hiccup Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
I am not even close to the students of the week Zia and Anders who are both well over 1000.
Sterling trades and one crude trade were great this morning and managed to not throw away hard earned pips this afternoon. GBPCHF has been a real winner for me this week. The momentum at the start of the London open is really worth getting up at 1:30 AM for!!

I have noticed that 95% of my successful trades are down to confidence. If I have a couple of bad experiences or trades (like Wednesday night) I trade like an idiot afterwards (stops too tight, cut winners too early, hesitate and miss moves, etc). Something I need to watch out for.

Don't forget US holiday on Monday,
Nic

Here are a couple of the sterling trades, all bounces off the 20ma with the trend and then one retracement between the two ma's.

PS - I know my charts look different, I am still applying the strategy but trying to learn price action with candles. (Sorry Dan, I miss the heiken's but I am just trying something out).

 

[theiceman]

Hi all,

Well done Nicola, congrats.

Very good week for me as well, actually the first week since I started trading live where I can stand up Friday afternoon with pips in the bank, and close to 400 of them, this is new to me, I have far to often lost pips outside the sessions, and usually more than I've earned in the room, I now feel it's all coming together.

Trade with discipline, patience, good money management and follow the strategy, then I simply can't see how I can go wrong.

Take care all, and have a great weekend.

 

[danarm]

Thats great news...

We r 4 months in now and for those who have stayed with the stratgey are reaping the rewards in a big way. All it takes is a little time and a few hurdles to get over and then its pips galore!!!

Well done to u all.

Have a great weekend. Come on England!!!

D

 

[jel31]

Hey well done Nicola, you're an inspiration! Nice one Einar.

Good week for me too, things are really coming together, 192 pips altogether and only 1 loser. I totally agree with Nicola that the best trades are the ones taken with confidence. I've just got to learn to hold my winners for a bit longer and my target of 250 should be no problem.

What a turnaround, 2009 may well be the year!

Thanks for all your hard work Dan, it's really appreciated.

As for the little question of a match this afternoon, may the best side win. We have got a pretty powerful (17-month-old) mascot here though, she wore her rugby shirt for every match last year and is doing the same this year (with the same - now quite tight - shirt!) Be scared, be very scared!

Have a great weekend and see you Monday

Julie

 

[mauzj]

Hi Nicola,

Well done on another solid week. I've been looking at your charts to try and learn more about what makes you so successful.

For your first GBPCHF trade, what made you enter when you did, rather than in one of the bars a few periods before? I can't see what conditions make your entry bar different to those before it, and would really appreciate it if you could shed some light on the matter.

Thanks,

Mauzj.

Not a bad week and 930 pips after a bit of a hiccup Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
I am not even close to the students of the week Zia and Anders who are both well over 1000.
Sterling trades and one crude trade were great this morning and managed to not throw away hard earned pips this afternoon. GBPCHF has been a real winner for me this week. The momentum at the start of the London open is really worth getting up at 1:30 AM for!!

I have noticed that 95% of my successful trades are down to confidence. If I have a couple of bad experiences or trades (like Wednesday night) I trade like an idiot afterwards (stops too tight, cut winners too early, hesitate and miss moves, etc). Something I need to watch out for.

Don't forget US holiday on Monday,
Nic

Here are a couple of the sterling trades, all bounces off the 20ma with the trend and then one retracement between the two ma's.

PS - I know my charts look different, I am still applying the strategy but trying to learn price action with candles. (Sorry Dan, I miss the heiken's but I am just trying something out).