Is my system too simple?

[darktone]

i have arrived....

Thats what you should write on the wall. Make sure its a big wall cos u prolly gona be writing it a lot

just my megre 2c
Systems, imho will profit then not. whether you make money using it or not will largely come down to you. it will win and will draw down. if you become discouraged during the draw down and stop then start up again after a period of winning (like most folks) youll likely lose over time.

your simple system, trades a breakout and uses a stop, thats a weak methodology in my experience. If youre enjoying no slip fills atm it will become weaker when you are 'more realistic fills'.
Just about everyone looks for a price confirmation before taking a trade as do they use stops.

If you are good you can grind out a profit like this.

IMO. youre much better off approaching things from a discovering rather than s confirming standpoint. You can seek value at all times and you can employ it in anyway you choose. You can trade that high and low price allowing yourself to reduce youre size / risk.

Anothing thing to note is your risk is not entry - stop x pounds per point. 1% of your account spread over 10 dax piperoos can turn into a nice 5% loss on a 50 point slip (perhaps a 50% loss or more come brexit). Entering using a stop (if you do) doubles up this slippage risk, you can get whacked both ways. I prefer (not saying this is the right way) to see risk as notional value of the position ie dax at 10,000 x 1ppp = £10,000, if youve a 10k account and trading at 4ppp your position size is 40k. If dax does goes 7500 in a single tick its refund account time, stop or no.

Hey its fathers day, im off to make my kids feel guilty.

BRING ME A BEER CHILD! :cheesy:

 

[dunitatlsatrodney]

Make sure you sink plenty and come in here with a posting frenzy when you're fully sozzled

 

[Shadowman540]

Thats what you should write on the wall. Make sure its a big wall cos u prolly gona be writing it a lot

just my megre 2c
Systems, imho will profit then not. whether you make money using it or not will largely come down to you. it will win and will draw down. if you become discouraged during the draw down and stop then start up again after a period of winning (like most folks) youll likely lose over time.

your simple system, trades a breakout and uses a stop, thats a weak methodology in my experience. If youre enjoying no slip fills atm it will become weaker when you are 'more realistic fills'.
Just about everyone looks for a price confirmation before taking a trade as do they use stops.

If you are good you can grind out a profit like this.

IMO. youre much better off approaching things from a discovering rather than s confirming standpoint. You can seek value at all times and you can employ it in anyway you choose. You can trade that high and low price allowing yourself to reduce youre size / risk.

Anothing thing to note is your risk is not entry - stop x pounds per point. 1% of your account spread over 10 dax piperoos can turn into a nice 5% loss on a 50 point slip (perhaps a 50% loss or more come brexit). Entering using a stop (if you do) doubles up this slippage risk, you can get whacked both ways. I prefer (not saying this is the right way) to see risk as notional value of the position ie dax at 10,000 x 1ppp = £10,000, if youve a 10k account and trading at 4ppp your position size is 40k. If dax does goes 7500 in a single tick its refund account time, stop or no.

Hey its fathers day, im off to make my kids feel guilty.

BRING ME A BEER CHILD! :cheesy:

That's the first time ive read someone explain risk like that as well, ive been asking about that for a while only to be told the "man up this is trading bro!", approach,

 

[Solas0077]

Three simple mean reversion systems that work.

Simple works!

 

[darktone]

That's the first time ive read someone explain risk like that as well, ive been asking about that for a while only to be told the "man up this is trading bro!", approach,

Well, if you this shiz long enough, you goto get real at some point eh

 

[metrader]

Three simple mean reversion systems that work.

Simple works!

How long have you been trading them Solas?

 

[dbphoenix]

It's good to see that at least a few people are gravitating toward simplicity. Too bad he won't be back.

 

[dbphoenix]

I wasted about four years trying to decipher the intent behind every move and disappeared down a number of fruitless though mildly interesting bunny tunnels. It's a natural thing to do, as the basic mechanics of trading ultimately become tedious and unfulfilling, at the very least in an intellectual sense, so of course one tries to go deeper and deeper to squeeze more meaning from the motion, indeed the profession as a whole. Or hole.

Now I'm down to one free web-based chart and have let it all go, it's such a relief. Four monitors, 85 charts with various pointless divisions of time, range and volume, bid/ask order book overlaid with pit noise, TICK, VIX, put/call open interest, A/D and TRIN. WTF? Muddies the waters innit. Anything to avoid seeing the simplicity that was always there. I suppose it's kinda hard to accept that an innocent child with the proverbial crayon would probably do the job better, especially for the inquisitive male ego "But... but ... you mean that's all I have to do? Can't be right. So let's misovercomplexify it" as Bush might say.

Notwithstanding I think basics still need to be grasped: the formations and background levels of commitment and emotion that manifest as, for instance, an even-handed fierce fight; a non-commital can't be bothered to fight; whoa that hurt and I grimly held on but now it really hurts capitulation; directional grind, whippy uncertainty etc. ... vague levels of view (or lack of it) and positioning. but beyond that I no longer care why anything is happening outside of the nebulous bigger picture. Perhaps it gets more exciting when you can see the less obvious coming, but you don't need to. Pursue another (parallel) career if you want creative rewards, enlightening explanations or a sense of having produced something whether physically or in the mysterious carapace at the top of our bodies.

Accept that for the market to work it needs to occasionally misdirect -- savagely -- often during a dull moment (biggest moves often come out of these) but that it is, yes, generally quite obvious. Draw a few simple lines, exercise patience and hit those small areas of high probability again and again. That's all we can do. Thus it must follow that battles will indeed be fought in these obvious areas, as that's where the seasoned money will always be. It cannot be any other way. Our money, playing the waiting selective game. Not their money, cause they're impulsive, impatient, clueless, adrenaline diet disciples, or so rumour has it.

--frugi

 

[Shadowman540]

I wasted about four years trying to decipher the intent behind every move and disappeared down a number of fruitless though mildly interesting bunny tunnels. It's a natural thing to do, as the basic mechanics of trading ultimately become tedious and unfulfilling, at the very least in an intellectual sense, so of course one tries to go deeper and deeper to squeeze more meaning from the motion, indeed the profession as a whole. Or hole.

Now I'm down to one free web-based chart and have let it all go, it's such a relief. Four monitors, 85 charts with various pointless divisions of time, range and volume, bid/ask order book overlaid with pit noise, TICK, VIX, put/call open interest, A/D and TRIN. WTF? Muddies the waters innit. Anything to avoid seeing the simplicity that was always there. I suppose it's kinda hard to accept that an innocent child with the proverbial crayon would probably do the job better, especially for the inquisitive male ego "But... but ... you mean that's all I have to do? Can't be right. So let's misovercomplexify it" as Bush might say.

Notwithstanding I think basics still need to be grasped: the formations and background levels of commitment and emotion that manifest as, for instance, an even-handed fierce fight; a non-commital can't be bothered to fight; whoa that hurt and I grimly held on but now it really hurts capitulation; directional grind, whippy uncertainty etc. ... vague levels of view (or lack of it) and positioning. but beyond that I no longer care why anything is happening outside of the nebulous bigger picture. Perhaps it gets more exciting when you can see the less obvious coming, but you don't need to. Pursue another (parallel) career if you want creative rewards, enlightening explanations or a sense of having produced something whether physically or in the mysterious carapace at the top of our bodies.

Accept that for the market to work it needs to occasionally misdirect -- savagely -- often during a dull moment (biggest moves often come out of these) but that it is, yes, generally quite obvious. Draw a few simple lines, exercise patience and hit those small areas of high probability again and again. That's all we can do. Thus it must follow that battles will indeed be fought in these obvious areas, as that's where the seasoned money will always be. It cannot be any other way. Our money, playing the waiting selective game. Not their money, cause they're impulsive, impatient, clueless, adrenaline diet disciples, or so rumour has it.

--frugi

Oh I like this chap very much, we got capitulation, carapace, nebulous, fruitless though mildly interesting bunny tunnels, and my own personnel favourite, So let's misovercomplexify it, I am thinking Hedley Lamar, from Blazing Saddles and his, "my minds awhirl with transient node of thought", quote, (googles is your friend on this one), well done sir!, well done indeed.

 

[bredon]

.

I just wanted to post again because you have kind of unwittingly helped me out here, a lot. You posted a number of false signals on my chart but upon looking closely, all but one of them falls outside the rules of my system., and would not have been taken.

I have numbered them.

1. Not a pin
2. Would require a stop of 10+ pips so no trade.
3. Would require a stop of 10+ pips so no trade. Also does not out swing of the current pattern.
4. Low of pins does not get broken, no trade
5. yes would of lost 5/6 pips there
6. low of pin not broken, no trade
7. not a pin
8. I think that next pin hits my target of 6/7 pips
9. Top of pin never broken, so trade not triggered.

I this this highlights the importance of sticking to my system and not making mistakes.

I know i'm not going to hit any home runs with this system, but i just hope a can grind out a slow and steady increase in my equity, (i don't compound).

 

[dbphoenix]

I know i'm not going to hit any home runs with this system, but i just hope a can grind out a slow and steady increase in my equity, (i don't compound).

In a perfect world, yes. But you should understand that by cutting your profits short this is unlikely to ever amount to much more than a hobby.

Cut your losses short, yes.

Cut your profits short, no.

 

[bredon]

In a perfect world, yes. But you should understand that by cutting your profits short this is unlikely to ever amount to much more than a hobby.

Cut your losses short, yes.

Cut your profits short, no.

I'm more from the take small profits and take them often, school of thought.

Its better for my confidence.

 

[barjon]

In a perfect world, yes. But you should understand that by cutting your profits short this is unlikely to ever amount to much more than a hobby.

Cut your losses short, yes.

Cut your profits short, no.

Not necessarily, if you treat your trading as a business you will know what you need to take from a trade to keep your account moving along satisfactorily. If a system is designed with that in mind it'll be an OK way to go.

 

[Oscar Reed]

Not necessarily, if you treat your trading as a business you will know what you need to take from a trade to keep your account moving along satisfactorily. If a system is designed with that in mind it'll be an OK way to go.

Good to see you changed your thinking,.

 

[dbphoenix]

I'm more from the take small profits and take them often, school of thought.

Its better for my confidence.

Which is fine, but only as a step toward a higher level of profitability. The beginner's tasks are

1. Control losses, then

2. Break even, then

3. Stay in the black.

Once these have been mastered, staying in the black becomes a matter of degree. This doesn't mean achieving huge profits by the end of the week, but increasing profits becomes the next goal. Taking small profits is fine, but unless you can maintain a high winrate, the number of those small profits will more likely lead to disappointment and frustration, which generally in turn leads to futzing with the system, trading emotionally, and landing oneself back at the beginning.

They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market. (Jesse Livermore)

 

[bredon]

the number of those small profits will more likely lead to disappointment and frustration, which generally in turn leads to futzing with the system, trading emotionally, and landing oneself back at the beginning.
)[/I]

i see your point but im trying not to focus on profit, im trying to focus on sticking to my system and not making any mistakes. if i worry about profit then i am effectively trading my p&l and not the market.

 

[dbphoenix]

i see your point but im trying not to focus on profit, im trying to focus on sticking to my system and not making any mistakes. if i worry about profit then i am effectively trading my p&l and not the market.

Focusing on trading well is exactly what you should be doing. The profits are an unavoidable consequence if your plan is viable and you follow it to the letter. But if you continue to be successful, your trading will at some point become routine, and if you are like most successful traders you will then begin to wonder what's going on behind those candles and be in a better position to let your profits run, i.e., letting the trade unfold to its natural conclusion regardless of the money involved.