Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

[Forexmospherian]

GU - 6683 low for now and EJ - 140 -25 - might be looking at taking scalp buys in this time window - although will be aware of EU news - which is not a red one

Gu tested 81 and only a scalp buy again over 92

 

[Forexmospherian]

The EJ as remained a scalp buy above its low at 140 25 - now at 140 50 - so lock some profit in - or take all off if concerned about any news effect

 

[Forexmospherian]

The news effect was good on EU and EJ - both trying up atm - but no real strength on EU still

 

[Forexmospherian]

Do you get the feeling at the 9 30 am UK news in approx 25 mins - the GU will go back up again ??

It might tease under 6680 - even down to 70 - but then back over 6700 - I reckon - up again

Would only be looking at scalp selling more under 6660 I reckon - but not just with a spike - if that takes place

 

[Forexmospherian]

EA up at 5233 - and I am very pleased to say I have got some more off that pair with a scalp buy - will hold 30% above 5203

 

[Forexmospherian]

See that egg and bacon sarnie and the second cup of tea did help ;-)

 

[fx_]

I not sure what will going on, will listen the news and make after I see PA decision.

I always not trade the news,I only trade after news

 

[Forexmospherian]

I not sure what will going on, will listen the news and make after I see PA decision.

I always not trade the news,I only trade after news

Yes - I am the same normally

I do sometime put a trade wrap in - with a buy above a price and a sell under another price - but on much reduced stakes

As you say I prefer to wait and see PA and then try and get in after the event

 

[Forexmospherian]

Au - near now the big round number at 9000 - really needs above 9015 to hold any scalp buys you take on any bounces

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - well what do you expect other than teasing and manipulation on this pair.

OK - you can scalp it - but far nicer pairs to trade really

 

[fx_]

EU - well what do you expect other than teasing and manipulation on this pair.
..

have to wait, if the banks and broker see enough stops to reach, then will come a bigger move.


may the news in ~1 hour german ZEW will be the trigger

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU -atm - above 6683 it is a scalp buy

 

[Forexmospherian]

have to wait, if the banks and broker see enough stops to reach, then will come a bigger move.


may the news in ~1 hour german ZEW will be the trigger

Yes agree 10 am EU news could be well used

Unfortunately will not be at desk - as out at 9 .45 for about 45 mins on other business - shame

 

[Forexmospherian]

Under 83 now and saying scalp sell for now- but not taking it

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU - bounced at 6658 and now within 2 mins back at 6677 - needs over 83 and 90 really to think about holding any scalp buys on for 6700 plus again

Out in 10 mins - but will be back some time next hr

GL and be careful on 10 00 am news

 

[pete_tong]

Hi Pete

OK - let me address each part of your questions

Firstly the additional cost of taking multiple trades - when I was training to become an accountant over 30 yrs ago - one of my mentors who was very business orientated said - don't just look at cutting costs all the while - as you may end up worse off and not realise even if you reduce the cost base or the overheads by say 30% - you might end up halving the turnover - and ending up worse off ;-)

So bearing this is mind - yes I would prefer to pay only say for example $1000 a month on all spread and commission cost than say $5000 - you are better off surely ??

But think about it - you are only interested in your net gains -so if you got away paying say only $1k to your brokers - and say making $9k net - are you better off than paying say $4k to your broker - but making $18 k net ?

Yes - making more trades costs you more - BUT you only take more trades if you have a high win ratio and a positive RR - so if you take say 80 trades in a week instead of just 10 trades - you will pay out more - but similar you should end up with a lot higher net gain

I could reduce my own brokers bill by half by cutting out on say 40 trades a week - but if out those 40 extra trades - 30 make a net positive profit after costs - I end up with more money

Thats the whole point of trading - we would all like to earn more net money after all our costs

I would agree scalping for 1 to 3 pips only is expensive - that's why I prefer trying to make 7 -25+ pip trades - higher RR's and more profit - I would prefer to make 50 or 100 pips a trade - but not if I need 30 -50 pip stops and it takes 4 -8 hrs to achieve my target - instead of only 15 -30 mins

I hope that as put that first question to bed and if I ever end up paying my broker say $20k a month - it means I will be earning an awful lot of money

Next question - the 70% and the 30% free trade concept

When you scalp you have targets - but sometimes 12 pip scalp - might retrace say 9 pips and then go up another 15 pips and then retrace say 6 pips etc etc and 2 hrs later its made 46 pips - all from an initial 5 pip stop

But during that journey - it could have easily stopped at say 21 pips and reversed 37 pips the other way

So the way around it is to take 70% of your stake off at say 5 - 10 or ideally 15+ pips - and then leave 30% on as a free trade with your stop already in profit - whether it be just 3 pips or 9 pips in profit

You then cannot lose what ever happens/ You can also add to it again as well - ok extra cost of a trade - but again irrelevant if it makes you more money

So you dont have to babysit or worry about the trade so much as its a winner what ever happens

Obviously you want to to go on and make treble the pips you made on the 70% - ie if you made 12 pips on 70% and the 30% then goes on to make in total 36 pips - you have made more money on 30% stake - than on the main scalp stake at 70% - and would you want to leave all your stake on and manage it for an hr or 2 and then find out you get worried when it pulls back 9 pips and you pull the whole trade for only say 3 pips - after being up over 15 pips ??

So the free trade - 25 -35 % concept of leaving that part of the stake on can be very efficient and make you a lot of pips

In my case in 2012 I was very fortunate to have a"free trade" stake make me over 1000 pips on one trade in approx 3 months - - during that time I reduced down to only 10% - and scalped against myself on higher stake sizes etc - but it was great to know - even if the trade came back against me 150 pips or so - it was still in profit

I generally find out of every 10 scalps - at least 2-3 should work with a free trade earning more than the initial scalp

I appreciate it might be difficult to get your head around some of the MM ways I work - as they are not the normal standard stuff you will read about - but I can assure they do work - but like everything in trading - not every time

Hope that helps Pete

Regards

F

Thanks F for taking the time answering my question and helping me. What you're saying does make sense. Yep it is a different way, for me anyways of looking at MM especially when I review the number of trades that MM takes some days, but it is about win ratio and rr, and focusing on the profit net of the costs.

Pete

 

[fx_]

that is not a pullback at all on the news candle, is totally coming back.
so no trade for me.

I will wait the next 80 min to the german news.

I outside and take a sunbathe

some wrong at my timing news now near

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi guys

Been away from desk twice now in last 90 mins - but back now for an hr or so

I am glad my answer helped you Pete and FX you were right on GU - totally turned back up to 6700 area and so far 6709

Need under 94 and 89 to hold on any scalp sells you take with more supports at 80 -82 area

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - so far been up to 3734/5 and presently above 25 still scalp bullish

Needback under 23 and 18 to be holding any scalp sells taken on pullbacks

Above 38 and 42 more scalp buys

 

[fx_]

will see if EU can break the Rs ~3735, then may come some stops