InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[Liquid validity]

Re: Technical Levels: Money Flow Into Tech

No one noticed my f**k up then, I meant 1300GMT and I typed EDT by mistake.
So busy lulzing I lulzed myself

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Fertilizer Stocks Sprout

While the markets are slightly lower on the day, the fertilizer stocks have started to make a move higher. Earlier today, stocks like Potash Corp.Saskatchewan (NYSEOT), The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) and Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) were all lower. However, in the last hour they have turned around and moved to the positive side.

The key to understanding this move is two fold. First, the global population, especially in emerging markets continues to climb. As emerging market economies gain wealth, their people demand more food and higher quality. This increases the need for an acre of land to yield more produce. That has been the case for the strength in Potash, Mosaic and Monsanto over the last few years. However, just in the last few weeks a new front has emerged. The Japanese earthquake, tsunami and disastrous nuclear meltdown created a toxic mess. Not only is food full of radiation but their water supply has been contaminated as well. Japan, the third largest economy in the world is now in a position of having to import massive amounts of food. In the short term this could be a bullish case for these fertilizer plays.

These stocks may continue to remain strong unless one scenario occurs. Should the global economy slip back into recession, these stocks would suffer. In all other cases, these stocks should continue to remain strong, especially in the wake of the Japanese nuclear crisis.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Pre-market News And Views

This morning the S&P 500 e-mini futures(ES M1) are trading higher by 1.50 to 1311.50 per contract. This slight move higher in futures comes as WTI oil is trading lower this morning $1.33 to $104.12 a barrel. Over the past few weeks, whenever WTI oil has declined the major stock market indexes have climbed sharply higher. This morning it appears the S&P 500 futures look to be struggling to remain positive ahead of the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.

Nothing has really changed in the Middle East as violence and protests remain high. Qatar has agreed to purchase oil from Libya that is now controlled by the rebels. This is the likely reason for the decline oil before the opening bell. Traders and investors must continue to follow the Middle East and North Africa very closely for any new uprisings or disruptions as oil will usually move higher on this type of news.

Personal spending and income increased this morning. Spending was higher by 0.07 percent, meanwhile, income was higher by 0.03 percent. This number is not having a major effect on the stock futures and that is what traders concern themselves with.

The Asian markets were mixed last night. The Nikkei Index(Japan) traded lower by 0.60 percent as the Nuclear reactor crisis remains front and center. The problems in Japan still remains and must continued to be watched closely as radiation levels remain high. The Shanghai Index(China) was higher by 0.21 percent and this should not have much effect on our markets in the United States this morning.

The Pending Homes Sales Index will be released at 10:00 am EST. Most of the recent economic data released has not had much of an effect on the market lately and I'm not sure how much this report will have. The major stock market indexes have continued to rally despite all of the negative news and that must be respected. These major market indexes are getting a bit overbought short term at this time.

Gold and Silver are declining lower this morning. It seems as if gold and silver are trading almost in lockstep with oil. Therefore, traders must keep one eye on oil at all times.

Please do not forget about the European debt crisis. Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, are still in focus despite having little effect on the markets recently.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[josephine123]

Re: Pre-market News And Views

I am newbie to the market and just trying to learn things from the internet so that I can invest in it. Just panning to start with a small investment and think that I am at the right place to get good knowledge of Market. Also I am concerned about the riots and violence going on in Middle East as I think it is a good market and thus he violence going on there is causing much loss. But I know you people know more so please guide me through it if I am wrong.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Pre-market News And Views

Hi Josephine, thanks for the note. Follow along, definitely take it slow and before you do anything, learn and learn more.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Another Rally With Pockets Of Weakness

The major stock indexes have staged another rally. Everything that one could throw at this market has been swallowed as the major stock indexes seem to defy gravity. The highly followed Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied higher by 820.0 points in just eleven trading sessions. The move higher from the March 16, 2011 cycle pivot has been nothing less than remarkable. Geopolitical events in Japan, the Middle East, and Europe, have had hardly any negative effects from the March low. However, today the market is signaling some signs of weakness.

The first sign of weakness that we are seeing is in copper today. The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN(NYSE:JJC) is trading lower by $1.11 to $56.68 a share. Copper is viewed by many investors and traders as an economic barometer. When this industrial metal does not participate in a stock market rally traders will pay attention to this action. Weaker copper has often lead many big declines in the past. This time around the JJC still has a lot of daily chart support around the $55.00 area.

The next sign of weakness for the market is the action in the railroad stocks. This morning CSX Corp.(NYSE:CSX) made a new 52 week high for the year at the open. Since the high print of $80.42 at the open the stock has reversed sharply lower creating a possible outside day on the charts. When market leaders reverse it is a time to take note. CSX stock is trading lower by $1.66 to $78.37 a share. The big daily chart support level for CSX is around the $73.00 level. Norfolk Southern Corp.(NYSE:NSC) is also trading lower after making a new 52 week high at the open trading lower by 0.28 cents to $69.27 a share. When the railroad stocks decline it is often a sign that the transport index make need to pullback.

Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) is also failing to trade higher with the market today. This stock is the market darling and is owned by most institutions and retail investors. When this market leading stock fails to participate in the rally it definitely raises some red flags and must be watched closely.

Traders and investors are certainly enjoying the stock market rally over the past ten trading sessions. However, when markets get euphoric traders must watch for clues that a pullback could be around the corner. Today, the market is signaling weakness in copper, railroad stocks, and Apple Inc. It may just be a non-event and these leaders could just be taking the day off, however, it is worth noting.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Markets Rise To Key Level On Jobs Data

The markets moved sharply higher today on the back of the Non Farm Payrolls Report showing an increase of 216,000 jobs in March. The Unemployment Report showed a small decline to 8.8%. The markets opened higher and continued to advance most of the morning on the first day of the second quarter. Not only was the employment number positive, but the first day of the new quarter often sees new money flow moving into funds. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is currently trading at $133.69, +1.10 (+0.82%). This level on the SPY is key as the markets have now retraced into a major level of resistance.

The rally today is broad based, with energy, technology, banks and transports all higher. A few leaders are Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), trading at $108.46, +0.97 (+0.90%), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), trading at $594.00, +7.24 (+1.23%) and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) which is trading at $161.64, +3.04 (+1.92%).

The markets are short term extended but with the Middle East, Japan and Europe quiet, the market are enjoying a more calm period. New money flow from retail investors continues to flood the markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new 52 week high today and the S&P 500 is closing in.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[josephine123]

Re: Pre-market News And Views

much appreciated. Thanks for your advice InTheMoneyStocks.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Charts That Profit

In just the last few trading days, International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) has gone from a bullish chart to a bearish chart. Note the key double top hit late last week. In addition, last Friday, a beautiful topping tail formed. These are two bearish short term indicators telling pro traders the stock may have weakness in the coming days. True to form, International Paper is falling slightly today off that level. The stock is trading at $30.16, -0.26 (-0.85%).

With the NASDAQ flat on the day, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is showing relative weakness, trading at $19.42, -0.30 (-1.52%). The chips are weak overall as the Semiconductor HOLDRs (ETF) (NYSE:SMH) is also down 1%. The key with Intel is to recognize it took out a pivot short term double bottom at $19.70. This leaves the stock open to fall to its next major support at $18.85. At this level, Intel should see solid support.

The fertilizer stocks are showing solid strength today in an otherwise flat market. Stocks like Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (NYSEOT) and Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) are trading nicely higher. It appears as if the inflationary fears continue to drive up these stocks. They are quickly approaching a major double top on their daily charts. The Potash double top resistance point will be at $64.00 while the Monsanto double top will be $76.70.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Action Markets: Another Earthquake Strikes Japan

The markets opened quietly today on the back of an expected interest rate hike by the ECB and Jobless Claims that came in at 382,000. These were no shock to the markets which opened slightly lower on a stronger Dollar. No sooner had the markets opened, a flurry of buying came in as the Dollar fell down in its normal daily spiral. The markets advanced towards the high from yesterday with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) hitting $133.98. All of a sudden, the markets turned down, collapsing with ferocity and massive volume. News had hit that Japan was struck with a massive earthquake, measuring 7.2. Worries about more damage, another Tsunami and of course those nuclear plants surged. The SPY went from a high of $133.98 to $132.66 before having a gigantic bounce. It is currently trading in the middle range at $132.84, -0.72 (-0.54%).

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is seeing its second down day in a row, somewhat of a rarity. The stock is trading at $107.81, -0.85 (-0.78%). A second down day may actually signal a short term top in the stock as long as it closes below $108.44 today. This would be known as confirmation of a reversal. Chevron would have first major support at $106.00 while resistance would be the 52 week high at $110.00.

As the markets continue to sell, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) is bucking the trend. The stock is trading at $163.30, +1.41 (+0.87%). Goldman has surged in the last three trading days and continues to show abnormal strength, relative to the markets. The daily chart shows massive resistance at $165.60 while support is at $159.00. Yesterday, banks and financial firms saw massive buying interest.

Looking forward, the markets will be analyzing the new earthquake in Japan. Is there additional damage, what is the economic impact? In addition, all eyes are now on the U.S. government and a possible shutdown tomorrow at midnight. As of now, the markets have felt it will not occur. However, should it occur there may be an economic impact as checks are not sent out and various programs shut down. Follow this closely in the next couple days.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[brettus]

Re: Action Markets: Another Earthquake Strikes Japan

The markets opened quietly today on the back of an expected interest rate hike by the ECB and Jobless Claims that came in at 382,000. These were no shock to the markets which opened slightly lower on a stronger Dollar. No sooner had the markets opened, a flurry of buying came in as the Dollar fell down in its normal daily spiral. The markets advanced towards the high from yesterday with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) hitting $133.98. All of a sudden, the markets turned down, collapsing with ferocity and massive volume. News had hit that Japan was struck with a massive earthquake, measuring 7.2. Worries about more damage, another Tsunami and of course those nuclear plants surged. The SPY went from a high of $133.98 to $132.66 before having a gigantic bounce. It is currently trading in the middle range at $132.84, -0.72 (-0.54%).

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is seeing its second down day in a row, somewhat of a rarity. The stock is trading at $107.81, -0.85 (-0.78%). A second down day may actually signal a short term top in the stock as long as it closes below $108.44 today. This would be known as confirmation of a reversal. Chevron would have first major support at $106.00 while resistance would be the 52 week high at $110.00.

As the markets continue to sell, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) is bucking the trend. The stock is trading at $163.30, +1.41 (+0.87%). Goldman has surged in the last three trading days and continues to show abnormal strength, relative to the markets. The daily chart shows massive resistance at $165.60 while support is at $159.00. Yesterday, banks and financial firms saw massive buying interest.

Looking forward, the markets will be analyzing the new earthquake in Japan. Is there additional damage, what is the economic impact? In addition, all eyes are now on the U.S. government and a possible shutdown tomorrow at midnight. As of now, the markets have felt it will not occur. However, should it occur there may be an economic impact as checks are not sent out and various programs shut down. Follow this closely in the next couple days.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

I read about the 1 meter wave going towards east Japan. I know Japanese aren't very tall, but come on.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Copper Stocks Look Corroded Today

All of the major copper stocks are declining sharply lower today with most other leading commodities. The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN(NYSE:JJC) tracks copper and is declining lower this afternoon by 0.82 cents to $59.01 a share. Often traders and investors will follow copper as a leading indicator for economic growth and expansion. The JJC made an all time high on February 14, 2011 at $61.69 a share. Short term scalp traders can watch for intra-day support around the $58.50 level.

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.(NYSE:FCX) is the leading copper stock in the stock market. This copper mining giant is declining lower by $1.96 to to $55.25 a share. FCX stock tested the $58.75 resistance level last week and is coming under heavy selling pressure today. This stock looks to have intra-day support around the $54.50 and $54.00 levels should it sell off throughout the rest of the afternoon.

Southern Copper Corp.(NYSE:SCCO) is another popular copper producer that is based out Peru, and other parts of Latin America. This stock topped out on January 3, 2011 at $50.35 a share. Since that high earlier in the year the stock has sold off sharply and is now trading below all of its major daily chart moving averages. This is an indication of weakness and indicative of a solid down trend. The next intra-day level for this stock will be around the $38.00 area.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Calling The Oil Bounce Today

Oil bounced today after dropping sharply the last two days. After topping out around $113.00 per barrel last Friday, oil collapsed into the $105.00 range. This drop over the last two days scared many speculators into selling oil. News hit the market that Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) had told their clients to sell. In addition, there seems to be more signs that the sharp incline in oil prices have sent consumers into hiding.

Oil is bouncing today, with the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) trading at $42.72, +0.42 (+0.99%). Oil was going to bounce today, there was no doubt about it. I made the bullish call yesterday and I will explain why?

Prior to the latest move in oil that sent it to $113.00 and the USO to $45.20, oil had been hammering on the 2010 high. This 2010 high happened to be at $42.15 - $42.20 on the USO. Note the chart below clearly showing this pivot high from 2010. Finally, oil broke through this major resistance point, spiking dramatically higher.

After the USO hit $45.20 on Friday, it started the drastic sell off over the last two days. As it fell, guess what level it fell into? The USO slammed into the $42.15 - $42.20 level which was the former breakout resistance level from 2010. This now becomes massive support and an ideal level for a bounce. Sure enough, today speaks for itself with oil bouncing sharply. It is a beautiful thing to learn the charts.

Not only did I alert a bounce on the USO and on oil but I also covered my Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) short. In addition, it made sense to also go slightly bullish on the markets due to the fact that if oil bounced, most likely the markets would get a small bounce as well. Sure enough, the markets opened higher today, getting that bounce on oil.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Markets Sell On S&P Negative Outlook

The markets sold sharply this morning on the back of a downgrade by Standard & Poor's. They downgraded the long-term credit in the U.S to negative. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $129.94, -2.10 (-1.59%). This downgrade was inevitable, as the trillions printed by the Federal Reserve continues, however, the markets have been enjoying a period of ignorance is bliss on this matter. Today seems to be somewhat of a reality check.

Off of the downgrade in long-term credit, the Dollar spiked dramatically and oil dropped sharply. The spike in the Dollar goes contrary to what many would think would happen. The Dollar spiked higher as borrowing costs jump. As investors get more and more negative on on the debt of anyone or any country, they require a higher return (interest rate) for the risk they are taking in lending money. As these costs go higher, it will be harder for the U.S. to borrow money. In tune with that, it is feasible to think less will be borrowed. Less Dollars equal a stronger Dollar. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is trading at $21.68, +0.23 (+1.05%) while the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) is trading at $42.75, -0.96 (-2.20%).

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[dmt257]

Re: Markets Sell On S&P Negative Outlook

More difficult to borrow so easier to print

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Entry Alert: To Buy Solar Stocks

The solar stocks have been dropping significantly over the last two weeks as global cut backs on subsidies loom. The fears are great that with austerity measures being pushed through, less rebates will be available for solar. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) has fallen nearly every day for the last two weeks from a level of $163.00 to its current price of $133.23, -3.71 (-2.71%). Other solar stocks have been hit just as hard like Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) and SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWRA). Below are the key levels of support that look attractive as long plays.

First Solar has significant support on the daily chart at $128.95. This represents a pivot low from late December 2010. A solid bounce should occur at this level. Canadian Solar has been hit the hardest of late, falling from $16.79 on February 18th, 2011 to its current price of $9.44, -0.11 (-1.15%). The major support to buy this stock is at $9.00. This will be a major support and with an oversold stock like CSIQ, a likely hard bounce level. Lastly, SPWRA is approaching its 200 moving average on the daily chart. Should it hit this level it will also coincide with a double bottom from mid March at $14.25.

The solar stocks are currently being discounted based on fears of cuts to subsidies. Should oil stay strong, it is likely that demand will remain solid for alternate energy and a majority of solar companies will survive and flourish. These levels are the master supports in the short term and should be taken as solid levels to buy for a swing trade.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[amit1986]

Re: Entry Alert: To Buy Solar Stocks

Where would you place stops if you were to take these trades? The reason I ask is not for 'trading advice', but to just inform that any 'logical' stop area would likely be taken out by market makers.

Another solar stock, TSL, has made head and shoulders on the daily chart and is continuing its move down, nearing the neckline. If you were to buy around here, it is likely you will get stopped out as the sell orders start mounting.

 

[BlackBison]

Re: Entry Alert: To Buy Solar Stocks

These guys don't set stops and targets ahead of time, only with hindsight so they can call the perfect trade after its already over.

In any case the FSLR chart looks horrible- it has been going sideways for the last 2 years whilst the rest of the market has been rallying hard. So unless you are buying for a very quick short term bounce, this is a huge warning sign.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Day Trading Lesson: Understanding The Gap And Slow Day

Often day traders watch the markets for 'gap and go' trading sessions. This is when the S&P 500 futures trade higher 7.0 – 10.0 points before the opening bell and rallies throughout the rest of the trading session. Often day traders will look for small pullback and jump on board for a move higher into the close.

Today the market made a 'gap and slow' day. This is when the market gaps higher by 15.0 to 20.0 points at the open and then stalls out for the rest of the session. Many inexperienced traders will usually buy the highs thinking the market is about to break out. Wrong, the market will usually trade sideways and sometimes even drift slightly lower into the end of the session. Day trading requires experience. Traders should not just guess or assume, that is gambling.

Day trading is a very calculated endeavor and it is imperative to know what type of trading day it is. For example, today the SPDR S&P 500 Trust(NYSE:SPY) made a high around 10:00 am EST, since that time the SPY has traded in a 0.30 cent range for the rest of the day. Welcome to a gap and slow day.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[nunrgguy]

Re: Entry Alert: To Buy Solar Stocks

Are solar stocks going to the moon?