InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[shulink]

Re: Solar Stocks Surge, What To Do

Back in 2008,solar traded in much higher prices when oil prices was about the same as now. FSLR traded at $300 back then and it is only $164 per share now.JASO was $28 and now is only $7.45 per share now.
I don't think they are expensive compare to 2 years ago

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Markets Pause Ahead Of Huge Jobs Report

The stock market dropped early on a strong Dollar but made its way back to the flat line by mid day. All eyes appear to be on the Non Farm Payrolls Report and Unemployment Report tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $130.38, - 0.11 while the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is trading at $22.34, +0.16. The markets fell sharply early in the morning session as the Dollar shot higher. However, the light volume and a small pull back in the Dollar helped the markets move to the flat line. The Federal Reserve bought more treasuries as well, which is their way of propping the markets up using QE-2.

Even as earnings have been mixed, Egypt continues to be a mess and the markets look tired, they have yet to pull back sharply off their mega rally and 52 week highs. The Federal Reserve continue to utilize the artificial asset bubble technique to keep the economy afloat.

Gareth Soloway

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Alert: Gold Setting Up For A Three Day Bounce

Good job to anyone who took the gold trade as it has had a nice solid bounce since the post!
Cheers!

 

[meanreversion]

Re: Alert: Gold Setting Up For A Three Day Bounce

Always believe in your .. soul.

 

[trader_dante]

Re: Alert: Gold Setting Up For A Three Day Bounce

Good job to anyone who took the gold trade as it has had a nice solid bounce since the post!
Cheers!

After the spot price dropped $26 first...

Even supposing you traded it with no stop, once you factor that drawdown in, today's rally hasn't even given you an equal return on risk.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Alert: Gold Setting Up For A Three Day Bounce

Never confirmed. Use the technicals. Many traders know if there is no confirmation the play is still a long. Many of our guys nailed it...$128.75 to current price $132.25 is a huge gain how ever you slice it.
Thanks

After the spot price dropped $26 first...

Even supposing you traded it with no stop, once you factor that drawdown in, today's rally hasn't even given you an equal return on risk.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Markets Drop Sharply, Dollar Spikes

The markets are having a rare late morning, pre lunch drop, as the Dollar has spiked higher. The trading day started much like all the rest. A small gap lower and a float back to the flat line on light volume. However, once the flat line was achieved, the markets started to drop at 11am ET. Currently, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $131.93, -0.64.

There were signals throughout the morning session that told of a possible drop. First, two of the main leaders were significantly lower. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) were down sharply even when the markets rallied back to the flat line. These two stocks have lead this market up and one must assume, they will lead the market down. In addition, the leading financial stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) were also down all morning, never rallying to the flat line either. This should set bells ringing to Wall Street.

While the markets are lower today, the bigger question will be whether or not they can rally back by the close of trading? This is the usual move in the markets for any losses during the day. A late day buy program usually saves the day. Will it occur? If it does not occur, this may be a sign of further declines to come.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Fertilzer Stocks Move Higher Again

Agriculture stocks jumped to new 52 week highs today as the cost of food continues to rise. This rising price of food has been one of the main drivers behind the protests and riots all over the world. Many poor nations with high unemployment spend a majority of their money on food. As inflation jumps, food prices rise as well. This is making more and more of the worlds poor unable to feed themselves. The unrest stems largely from that.

Agriculture stocks continue to rise. The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) jumped to a new 52 week high today, trading at $87.78, +1.86 (+2.16%). In addition, Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (NYSEOT) did the same. Other agriculture plays are also surging and nearing their 52 week highs. Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI) are both having solid days higher.

The key to the future will be inflation. There is little chance food will see significant declines because of the massive printing of money and the growing global population. This leaves the door open to more protests like those that engulfed Egypt. This has to be a concern to many governments all over the world. Should protests begin in countries like Saudi Arabia, the markets would take a harder hit because they are a larger oil producer.

It is hard to go long the fertilizer, agriculture stocks at these levels. However, strong pull backs should be great buying opportunities.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Rinse and Repeat To Profits

Rewind and replay, that is the motto of the stock market each day. Stocks like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) gap lower, only to have the buy programs hit via the Federal Reserve's POMO QE-2. These stocks then move higher, minute after minute, keeping the markets floating in the neutral to positive direction. You can look back at XOM each of the last few days. This is a repeating pattern. XOM will gap lower, then go on a major move higher, keeping the markets from collapsing. Remember, XOM is the largest market cap stock and a major player in the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is made up of only 30 stocks. It is becoming somewhat of a joke between seasoned intelligent traders who are making money hand over fist as they play the Federal Reserve's POMO each day. “Buy the dip”, everyone screams. As of now, the markets are a casino and everyone is being paid out.

While Exxon Mobil is the most obvious case of propping, other stocks see it as well. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), a close relative, sees it almost as much as XOM as does International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM). The joke continues to be something to laugh at but also profit off of. Use it until you lose it, is the motto now. This means, play the Federal Reserve's propping until it stops working. When they can print money non stop, it makes for a positive bias for the markets, especially when the volume remains so low.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Options Expiration Whipsaw Starts Up

After the lightest trading day of the year yesterday, the markets kicked it up a notch. They opened lower after retail sales came in below expectations. After an initial move higher from the gap down, the markets sold sharply as the Dollar gained. Then, as the lunch time volume kicked in, the markets moved back, heading towards the flat line. This is options expiration and Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday could be very wild. The institutions will try and push stocks to certain price levels to have options expire worthless, thus capturing the premium of the option as pure profit. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) are trading at $133.04, -0.39 (-0.29%). This is close to the highs for the session.

One of the more amazing whipsaw swings in a stock can be seen on Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). The stock rose non stop yesterday, climbing over two-percent. Today, the stock has reversed, at one point negating the entire move higher yesterday. The games are definitely being played with XOM this week.

The leading group of the day is the financial sector. Within that sector, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is leading the charge. It is trading at $47.08, +0.54 (+1.16%). The agriculture stocks are among the weakest sectors on the day. Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (NYSEOT) is trading at $184.02, -5.92 (-3.12%). These stocks have been the hottest of late on global food prices but are showing significant weakness today. They are due for a pull back.

This week is ruled by options expiration and the games that are played during. The markets are run by the institutions and they will do whatever they need to to make money. That includes whipping the markets to get options to expire worthless so they keep the full premiums.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com

 

[amit1986]

Re: Options Expiration Whipsaw Starts Up

Great read. I always knew options expiration days would bring a little more volatility, but never knew it happens for the reasons you state. Thanks.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Options Expiration Whipsaw Starts Up

Glad you liked it Amit. thanks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Inflation At All Levels, Will The Market Drop

The markets are higher today after Dell Inc. (NASDAQELL) and Deere & Company (NYSEE) reported better than expected earnings for the latest quarter. However, we have seen some massive selling bringing the markets sharply off their highs. Prior to the markets open, the futures were up nicely. At 8:30am ET, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was released. This economic signal gives the market an idea on inflation at the producer level. The PPI came in at 0.09. This number included food and energy which the Federal Reserve says does not count. However, the Core PPI which excludes food and energy came in at 0.05. This was a shockingly high number, showing inflation is creeping into all things now on the producer level.

Why is this a negative? For many reasons but namely it is bad because the costs to produce all products are rising for corporations. This means margins will decline and profits will shrink. On a secondary level, it also means that inflation will probably pick up at the consumer level as the producers pass on some of the costs. In addition, rising inflation at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve had thought, tells us there is little chance of QE-3, once QE2 is done. The markets have been rallying non stop of late because of the massive stimulus of QE-2. Without the drug in the future, it is likely the markets will go into withdrawal and panic. Keep a close eye on the markets in the coming weeks for signals. This could get very bumpy.

While the markets are higher today, earnings are only half the reason. Since the markets opened, the Dollar has been falling sharply. This initially helped the markets remain positive but now seems to be having a negative effect. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) were higher at the open but are now trading at $22.49, -0.11 (-0.51%).

Analyzing the current market activity, one must begin to wonder whether or not the markets are not starting to look at that PPI inflationary number and starting to panic. The markets are starting to sell here, though still positive.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Auto Outlook

Since early January 2011, the U.S. auto makers have been under pressure. Stocks such as Ford Motor Co.(NYSE:F), General Motors Co.(NYSE:GM), and even Tesla Motors Inc.(NYSE:TSLA), have been under pressure. Please note that the decline in all of these leading U.S. automakers came after general Motors was upgraded by most major Wall Street firms in December 2010. We can only wonder who was selling those stocks into the new year?

Ford Motors stock remains weak on the daily chart at this time. The stock will still have daily chart support around the $15.25 area. This is a level where the stock bounced in early February and this level should still be respected as an important support area. Should the Ford stock fail to hold and trade above the $15.00 area the stock could decline down to the $14.00 level which is the next major support level on the daily chart.

General Motors stock traded as high as $39.48 a share on January 6, 2010. The stock has steadily traded lower over the past six weeks and is now trading around the $36.50 area. Traders and investors should watch the $35.00 area as being the next important daily chart support level. This is an area on the chart that has been tested a few times as resistance and later as support, therefore, it should be a solid support level in the near term.

Tesla Motors stock topped out in early December 2010 at $36.42 a share. The stock has declined sharply lower from that high made two and a half months ago. Traders and investors will have support for this stock around the $22.50 and $20.00 areas. Should the stock rally or bounce higher from its current level traders should watch the $26.50 and $28.00 levels as strong daily chart resistance.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Silver Squeezes

The commodity silver is surging today, making new 52 highs. Not only is silver a store of value during inflationary times, but more importantly, it is used in many products and the production of products. Therefore, it makes sense that it is running higher ahead of gold due to the solid economic outlook. The iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV) is jumping, hitting a new 52 week high at $32.08. This chart is extremely extended and could see a solid pull back.

The markets are floating higher as the Friday Effect is in full swing. Generally, Fridays are higher, especially ahead of a three day holiday weekend. Today looks to be following this logic. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) are trading at $134.51, +0.26 (+0.19%). As the markets float higher, the Dollar is continuing to drop. The markets and the Dollar move in opposite direction. As the Dollar falls, the markets move higher and vice versa. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is trading at $22.32, -0.09 (-0.40%).

The three day weekend brings into focus the global picture. Over the weekend, traders will be watching for any new riots or events out of the Middle East. In addition, traders are also watching Europe very closely as there are new rumblings starting to brew.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Retail Under Pressure

This morning many of the leading retail stocks reported earnings. The popular Retail Holders Trust(NYSE:RTH) is trading lower by $1.26 to $107.99 a share. The RTH looks to have some intra-day support around the $107.00 level should it trade down there. This is a level where traders can look for a small intra-day bounce.

WalMart Stores Inc.(NYSE:WMT) is trading lower this morning by $2.00 to $53.37 a share. This stock is declining after reporting earnings before the opening bell this morning. The stock appears to have some daily chart support around the $53.00 level. It is important to remember that most stocks are often very volatile after reporting earnings. Therefore, WalMart stock will be in play for most of the day.

Home Depot Inc.(NYSE:HD) is one retail stock that is trading higher this morning. The company reported earnings that are being well received by the market today. HD is trading higher by 0.50 cents to $38.98 a share. The stock is trading at a new 52 week high. The intra-day resistance area for HD will be around the $39.50 level.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Oil Runs Again, Driving Big Oil Higher

As oil continues to run higher on unrest in the Middle East and Northern Africa, big oil companies are enjoying larger profits in the short run. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is trading at $103.52, +3.20 (+3.19%) while Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is trading at $87.22, +1.78 (+2.08%). These companies surged dramatically higher yesterday on oils strength and are doing so again today.

While higher oil does mean more profits in the short term, it is not that way in the long term. As oil and gas prices rise, global demand will start to wane. If oil prices continue to rise, global instability is going to increase as inflation continues to move higher. Eventually, as consumers recoil from the massive surge in energy, demand for oil will drop and profits for big oil may start to drop. The big question will be, at what price does this occur. Many believe it may start at $100.00 oil and others believe at $115.00. In 2008 oil reached $150.00 per barrel. The global economy was much stronger then and it still collapsed into the financial crisis we have seen. What will happen this time?

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Pre-Market Movers

Last night the Asian stock indexes all surged higher. The Nikkei 225 Index(Japan) was the major winner closing higher by 1.22 percent. The Hang Seng Index(Hong Kong), and the Shanghai Index(China) both finished higher by less than 0.5 percent. When the Shanghai Index closes sharply higher traders should watch for the leading commodity stocks to react well in the U.S. market.

This morning the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, will be testifying in front of the U.S. Senate. The stock market is likely going to be on hold waiting for Chairman Bernanke to give bullish clues that the economy is fine. Tomorrow, Chairman Bernanke will appear before the House of Representatives where he will see and meet his favorite congressman Ron Paul. That will certainly be an interesting showdown as it always is.

The Saudi Arabian stock market is trading lower by 7.0 percent today as problems and protests continue to escalate in the region. Bahrain, Libya, and other nations remain under stress as violence continues to grow. These problems in the Middle East and North Africa will continue to effect the price of oil which has been the driving force of the stock markets over the past week.

This morning April crude is trading higher by 0.80 cents to $97.76 a barrel. At this time $100.00 a barrel oil seems to stall out the stock market rally. Meanwhile, gasoline in the United States is at its highest point since Hurricane Katrina. The average price of regular unleaded gasoline in the U.S. is now $3.39 a gallon. Traders and investors can watch United States Gasoline Fund(NYSE:UGA) which is trading around its 52 week highs at just over $47.00 a share. The United States Oil Fund(NYSE:USO) is trading higher before the opening bell by 0.40 cents to $39.54 a share. The 52 week high for USO is $40.60 made on February 24, 2011.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Pre-Market March 2nd

The uprising in the Middle East and North Africa continues to escalate. Countries such as Libya, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Bahrain, and possibly Saudi Arabia are being effected at this time. Light crude for April delivery is trading at $100.00 a barrel this morning. This has been the level where the stock market has declined and can no longer find buyers to keep it up. Should protesting or more uprisings flare up in Saudi Arabia oil could see a super spike in the short term.

The ADP employment report was released at 8:15 EST. The ADP report says that 217,000 jobs were added last month. This report has had very little effect on the markets as the S&P 500 e-mini futures are trading lower by 1.00 point. Right now the price of oil is driving the stock market. Simply put, when oil trades around $100.00 the stock market retreats.

The Asian markets sold off sharply last night. The Nikkei 225 Index(Japan) lead the decline by trading lower by 2.40 percent. The Hang Seng Index(Hong Kong) traded lower by 1.50 percent. The highly followed Shanghai Index(China) was lower by 0.17 percent. The Shanghai Index will usually effect the major commodity stocks in the United States markets, therefore, today we cannot expect much upside movement at the open. The surprise last night in the Asian markets was in India as the Sensex Index traded higher by 3.50 percent. Traders should watch for a possible move higher in the India Fund(NYSE:IFN) this morning, however, should our market decline today it will drag everything lower in the session. Tata Motors Ltd.(NYSE:TTM) can also be in play this morning as well.

Europe continues to have problems. Portugal is on the verge of being downgraded again this week by the rating agencies. European inflation is also on the rise and this will certainly hurt the Euro-zone countries as energy costs increase sharply. The European Central Bank is likely going to talk tough against inflation, however, will they do anything about it? Europe is trading lower by nearly 1.00 percent across the board. Gold and silver are both making new 52 week highs this morning as fiat money continues to show signs of a failed system. The iShares Silver Trust(NYSE:SLV), and the SPDR Gold Shares(NYSE:GLD) will certainly be in play this morning.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[LiveTradingZone]

Re: Pre-Market March 2nd

Trade futures...open 24 hours a day

Just playing, but very nice pre market news. Thanks





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