I Stopped Using Stops

[darktone]

Ok so we got tar and Fug firmly committed to the not curious side, done with conviction gents, well played.
Toms still on the fence, I think.
Chime in folks. curious? no curious?

 

[mike.]

I'm still subscribed DT. Its not that often you get a decent discussion without it breaking out into a slagging match. As you were....

 

[darktone]

Cheers mike, ill chalk you up for the curious.

 

[tar]

Its ironic how traders accept taking profit @ 20 or 40 points away but dont accept to do so if it was a loss , it doesn't make sense !

 

[timsk]

Cheers mike, ill chalk you up for the curious.

With my official T2W hat on I'm not curious at all. Without it, I'm curious!


Regarding your questions in post 123:
"So, how did I manage such timely executions?"
To be honest, I'm not sure I understand what you're asking here. If you mean how did you manage to begin and end the 'campaigns' shorting near the top of the range - you could use any number of TA tools to achieve that. Perhaps you mean how did you know to build a short position instead of a long one? Given what you've said so far, I'd guess that you didn't and were probably equally weighted long and short until your analysis gave you the nod in one direction.

"And how much points profit did I make in each campaign?"
No way of telling. That will be governed by the number and size of your positions. However, given you've asked the question, I assume you're expecting peeps to say the second one when price waterfalled. On that basis, I'll opt for the first one when price remained in a tight range.
Tim.

 

[darktone]

Lets have a look at this comment.

the notion that the market comes back 90% of the time is a myth , the market doesn't come back

I think it might be fairer to say that the market does nothing other than:-

Go

and

Comeback

Thats not to say the market always comes back to the price you would like. "Please Goooood let the market comeback!"(p00p hits floor).
Or goes to where you would like. "Fn missed my target by .01 and now its back at near my BE stop..Ping! FFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!" (Cat runs for cover).
But it is always going and coming back.

Looking at the chart, black tick showing where idjiot is buying in those blood red account killing, wrong, painful 1min candles. For whatever reason.

Inside that candle the tick looks something like this. Idjiot is looking for 2 units. Hes filled on 2 as prices move lower, then 2 more bringing him 2 units bigger than he wants 2, so he would like to get rid of 2. Does he set a stop somewhere below aiming at lower prices? no. He sets limits out above the current price and is filled on this occasion seconds later. He managed to scratch out the 2 he didnt want, this time at a small profit. Handy cos that can go against any loss making scratches.

Time rolls past and the idjiot just repeats the process knowing nothing more than the moment, until he reaches the 'happy' situation of being positioned at the bottom of that lovely blue, bullish, profit making, right, candle.

Then, some time later, when the HA charts have turned the right colour and the screener goes ding, Mr C starts buying (however Mr C buys). Another 100 points up and cry of BUY EM! rings out over the floor as an ntarder goes balls deep 1 contract with a tiny stop.

Ah whatever. U get the jist :cheesy:

 

[darktone]

Its ironic how traders accept taking profit @ 20 or 40 points away but dont accept to do so if it was a loss , it doesn't make sense !

What makes less sense to me is that most traders seem to think its a good idea to aim their loss taking at unfavourable prices. And then, some of them employ the same tactic to enter a trade,, and take a profit!
Time after time,,after time,,, after time,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

after time.

Could you imagine the same tactic being used to sell a car! Be Fn hilarious!!

Hello mate, ive come to see the car
Its right there!

some time passes.

Yeah its great, I have it . You got it up for 5k right.
Thats the current price.
Oook. Im not ere to bust ya balls mate. 5k it is!
Im sorry but I wont take a penny more than 4.5k!
..........Eh?:|.. Mate im happy to deal at 5k, no worries.
4.5k, not a penny more!!
...Are you ok?.Im sorry if ive offended you in some way but I really like the car. Please, take 5.5k!?!
Ok Il take 5k

 

[darktone]

With my official T2W hat on I'm not curious at all. Without it, I'm curious!

Without the T2W shackles youre down as curious, until you say otherwise

Regarding your questions in post 123:
"So, how did I manage such timely executions?"
To be honest, I'm not sure I understand what you're asking here. If you mean how did you manage to begin and end the 'campaigns' shorting near the top of the range - you could use any number of TA tools to achieve that. Perhaps you mean how did you know to build a short position instead of a long one? Given what you've said so far, I'd guess that you didn't and were probably equally weighted long and short until your analysis gave you the nod in one direction.

TA tools. Wash your mouth out with soap! I give up with the 'Twisted Assumptions' a while ago. My only guilty pleasure these days is an ma or two, even their card is marked.
Just short cos thats what the larger tf suggested ,no idea how hi it was gona go. Just lay out the limits and manage as best as

"And how much points profit did I make in each campaign?"
No way of telling. That will be governed by the number and size of your positions. However, given you've asked the question, I assume you're expecting peeps to say the second one when price waterfalled. On that basis, I'll opt for the first one when price remained in a tight range.
Tim.

I just mean how many points did i make. Size and unit amount dont matter ,unless youre a vendor
ave entry price - ave cover price = points of profit
Simple isnt it. Or is it? :whistling :cheesy:

Well done for stepping up btw.

 

[barjon]

Before I kick my own butt oot the door another T2W holiday.

The chart below shows the last couple o campaigns for the day.

In ze chart below:-
The blue circle arrow type thing is when and where i started the campaign.
The red label is the average entry price achieved.
The aqua label is where the those positions where covered.

So, how did I manage such timely executions?

Seems to me that your success depended on your decision to start short campaigns. Couldn't have been excellent judgement since you proclaim in your signature "....I know I dont know shît!!......" so must have been just a lucky guess.

Can you show how you would have fared using the same technique if the guess had been for a long campaign?

ps: just curious.

 

[tar]

When you buy oil at 100 and then you exit your longs at 99 , that's not exiting at an unfavorable price , infact i consider this trade a winner and a great one i must add ...

 

[darktone]

Seems to me that your success depended on your decision to start short campaigns. Couldn't have been excellent judgement since you proclaim in your signature "....I know I dont know shît!!......" so must have been just a lucky guess.

100% nothing to do with any judgement. Im not smart enough for that!
Larger tf suggested short so short I goes, in rising 1min prices, I cannot not be aved near the high, whether its 10 / 110 / 1010 pts higher than where i started. The only thing in question is how much profit or loss the scratches will yield.

Can you show how you would have fared using the same technique if the guess had been for a long campaign?

Possibly. :cheesy:

ps: just curious.

Top man

How bout the exits Jon? That second trades exit was unbelievably lucky. Right?

 

[darktone]

When you buy oil at 100 and then you exit your longs at 99 , that's not exiting at an unfavorable price , infact i consider this trade a winner and a great one i must add ...

That round turn could have been executed in either a favourable or unfavourable way imo.

You first

 

[tar]

When you buy oil at 100 and then you exit your longs at 99 , that's not exiting at an unfavorable price , infact i consider this trade a winner and a great one i must add ...

On the other hand if you bought oil at 100 and you kept buying it all the way down and have managed to make some profits when oil retraced to $60s again , i consider this a terrible trade and unprofessional and a big loss ... even if you have enough funds in your account for this .

 

[darktone]

On the other hand if you bought oil at 100 and you kept buying it all the way down and have managed to make some profits when oil retraced to $60s again , i consider this a terrible trade and unprofessional and a big loss ... even if you have enough funds in your account for this .

That doesnt tell me much about whether the trade was executed favourably or not. Theres a few assumptions and labels in there too imo.

More when I get back.

 

[barjon]

..................How bout the exits Jon? That second trades exit was unbelievably lucky. Right?.....................

Pretty much spot on and I can't see any reason why you should cover it all there. Do tell.

 

[barjon]

...................Possibly. :cheesy:........................

So, basically, the correct directional call had more to do with the success of the trade(s) than the technique employed?

 

[tomorton]

To clarify darktone, I'm not on the fence, trading without stops is going to be suicidal for me and most traders trading most markets in most styles over anything other than a 5 minute bowel-clenching once a year panic trade, probably a doubling down panic trade at that.

But I'm still curious to see how you can convince us otherwise. The fact that a couple of big names have done this and got a\way with it isn't proof, the law of averages says that eventually even the dumbest methodology will reward someone somewhere.

Interesting that trading without stops seems colourful, brash, pugnacious, aggressive: much like your most entertaining posts.

 

[darktone]

When you buy oil at 100 and then you exit your longs at 99 , that's not exiting at an unfavorable price , infact i consider this trade a winner and a great one i must add ...

To traders who both like oil at 100 but not at 99
The aggressive trade (unfavourable prices) :-
Prices fall down through the 100 to print the first low at 99.73 but the trader wants to buy it at 100 so he sets a stop to go long 100. His wish is granted a couple hours later. He sets his stop for 99.
Shortly after prices reverse to print a the next low 99.34 but trader dont care, his stop wernt hit and hes already bought em a 100. Hes still right! Look, its closed out the day above his entry!
Prices fall early the next day to recover to print a high at 100.60. Trader dont wana know about that, he needs 3 to 1 RR minimum or his systems a dud.
Prices start to fall in the evening and shave his stop, but that dont matter, hes still right!.
The price gaps a touch in the morning.
Mr Market:- Hey, that was knats coćk close yesterday eh, let me do you a favour at 99.40.
Trader doesnt hear and leaves his stop in at 99.

8 hours later
SOLD at 99 for -100!

The trader considers his play. "Great trade!"

The Passive trade (Favourable prices):-
Prices fall through the 100 and trader starts buying. The decline exhausts around 99.73 leaving trader long his line at 99.80 with a tiny scratch profit.
A little later an alert goes of as prices decline near 99.80. Buy manage buy manage and traders now averaged at 99.40 with a slight scratch loss.
Prices rise next day to print a high of 100.60 but trader is looking for +300 for whatever reason. Prices decline later and after another round of buy manage trader is aved at 99.10.
Trade still just in play.
Next day the price falls through 99. Buy manage buy manage comes out aved at 98.85 and looking for the door, which he takes at 99 limit.
Overall scratches are even and +15 on the trade out.

"Hey, how you do in oil?"
"-100"
"Good job mate!"

On the other hand if you bought oil at 100 and you kept buying it all the way down and have managed to make some profits when oil retraced to $60s again , i consider this a terrible trade and unprofessional and a big loss ... even if you have enough funds in your account for this .

How about if the trader continued to play Oil long (for reasons I couldn't imagine) and as well as being long his line At 45.25 managed to average 0.2% profit per day as well.
It obviously wouldnt be a big loss but would it still be a terrible trade / unprofessional?

 

[darktone]

Pretty much spot on and I can't see any reason why you should cover it all there. Do tell.

Nor me mate.
But there was no luck involved

So, basically, the correct directional call had more to do with the success of the trade(s) than the technique employed?

I wouldnt say that.

 

[darktone]

To clarify darktone, I'm not on the fence, trading without stops is going to be suicidal for me and most traders trading most markets in most styles over anything other than a 5 minute bowel-clenching once a year panic trade, probably a doubling down panic trade at that.

But I'm still curious to see how you can convince us otherwise.

Read what you said in bold, what does that mean to you?
Im not here to convince anyone Tom
Will update the list and thanks for terming me as colourful. I kinda like that. :jester: