I have been developing financial modeling and forecasting systems since 2004. Early efforts were computationally advanced – employing genetic algorithms, pattern matching, and neural networks -- but naïve and unscientific. These systems found combinations of conditions that historically resulted in better-than-average returns, which I then tried to rationalize. Essentially, they were great at finding pretty patterns of faux profitability in clouds of randomness.
Later iterations grew progressively more intellectually sophisticated. I began to rigorously adhere to the scientific process, instead of groping blindly through data sets. I no longer searched through data -- I instead hypothesized and then attempted to confirm or reject my ideas. I came to understand that true alpha is exceptionally rare and, with incredible regularity, overstated.
It is now 2008 and I have never approached profitability. I also have no desire (nor ability) to end my search but it is obvious that I must alter my search path. It would be ideal if I could find a genuinely successful trader capable of correcting (guiding) whatever misconceptions I likely have, but such a person would likely be as elusive as a successful method. Most "successful" traders seem to be charlatans or statistical illiterates.
Do mentors exist? Are any reading my post?
Later iterations grew progressively more intellectually sophisticated. I began to rigorously adhere to the scientific process, instead of groping blindly through data sets. I no longer searched through data -- I instead hypothesized and then attempted to confirm or reject my ideas. I came to understand that true alpha is exceptionally rare and, with incredible regularity, overstated.
It is now 2008 and I have never approached profitability. I also have no desire (nor ability) to end my search but it is obvious that I must alter my search path. It would be ideal if I could find a genuinely successful trader capable of correcting (guiding) whatever misconceptions I likely have, but such a person would likely be as elusive as a successful method. Most "successful" traders seem to be charlatans or statistical illiterates.
Do mentors exist? Are any reading my post?