meanreversion
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No there isn't.
drawdown
Definition
Reduction in account equity from a trade or series of trades.
http://www.investorwords.com/1579/drawdown.html
How to make 100%
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No there isn't.
drawdown
Definition
Reduction in account equity from a trade or series of trades.
http://www.investorwords.com/1579/drawdown.html
meanreversion
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And if you think there IS a difference, you are deluding yourself yet further. (I am assuming of course that the "drawdown of 70%" was on your entire account, because you previously stated this is the methodology you are using)
4xpipcounter
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Read post # 80. We are also making a big deal out of the exception. Did you see the GBP/CHF fly down the hill yesterday? That was me going for a ride on it. Are you watching the NZD/CHF going south? Ah, yes, that's me, alright. Another great call, Paul!
How about the EUR/JPY when it took the jet north earlier this week? Ah yes, that was me, on that ride, too.
That's the rule, MR!!! Not the GBP/CHF. Even then, ice in my veins helped in adding 28% to my account on that fiasco, which is more than any of the other trades I already mentioned.
How about the EUR/JPY when it took the jet north earlier this week? Ah yes, that was me, on that ride, too.
That's the rule, MR!!! Not the GBP/CHF. Even then, ice in my veins helped in adding 28% to my account on that fiasco, which is more than any of the other trades I already mentioned.
4xpipcounter
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meanreversion
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Alrighty, this horse is flogged to death, let's move on..
DionysusToast
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I would exercise a little caution as respects your claims to knowledge about the May 6th activities.
At some point in the future, the news will come out as to what actually happened on that day or maybe it never will be confirmed officially as it'll make too many people nervous.
In the meantime, I'd steer well clear of making claims you knew it was about to happen, unless you plan a summer in Guantanamo.
For sure - it was 100% absolutely NOT in the charts.
4xpipcounter
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DT, my blog stands alone concerning my forecast. I missed the reversal by 8 points my forecast was 11,246. It reversed at 11.254. I also mentioned an even greater after the reversal. The weekly and monthly charts were exploding.
I wouldn't mind discussing that, but in another thread for another day.
I wouldn't mind discussing that, but in another thread for another day.
4xpipcounter
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Nugget 4--Understanding a trend II
In nugget 1, I alluded to an obvious strong R point for the EUR/USD. In that case, it does not mean the euro is going to reverse trends, nor does it mean the trend is overextended. All it means is that at that point it will make an excellent entry for short that should net no less than 200 pips.
The AUD/USD paints a bit of a different picture. This pair is about ready for a huge reversal. The whole idea is finding and discerning when it is going to happen. The daily chart is showing the aussie flying way to high above the cloud. View it as an airplane flying too far above a cloud. The altimeter shows that the plane needs to come down, because of the high altiude. The altimeter on this chart is also showing the same thing. There is always a gravitational pull towards the cloud.
The weekly chart looks even nicer. If you count the lines forweard when the cloud has sloped downward, you will count 6. The weekly chart will be flying 1,000 pips above the cloud in 6 weeks if we are at today's level. Even further into the future shows the cloud turning bearish as there is a crossover of both senkou spans.
Personally, I can only think short when I think of the aussie because of how imminently close we are to what promises to be a huge reversal. The pair has become what I would call overextended or stretched. It is all a matter of finding an entry and taking a long ride south. If all it does is hit the top of the weekly cloud, that's circa 1,000 pips. Based on 10% margining that is a 100% gain from current level. It means at 10%, and let's say there is 10K in the account, 1 lot would be put on that trade, and a gain of 10K. That would take weeks to evolve, but there has been much talk about 20% per year, 5 % per week. This is only one trade as we peer into the future.
Strong obviations on the higher TF's make for quicker and speedier gains. Some don't like to stay in a trade and hold it for weeks. Another way to do it is wait for the break on the TF in question, and then hold it into the next candle of the TF, and bail out for some very quick and tidy gains.
Just as an example of the above. I am curently long the GBP/USD. I got a strong signal on the 8-hour chart, along with a confluence of other events. I am just waiting for the first strong break and then getting out. WR1 is on the radar, which is 1.5918. This trade is on a much smaller scale than what we see happening with the AUD/USD. In orer to define an entry for the aussie, it could be helpful to scale down to a lower TF and finding an entry. Afterward watch for momentum. If there is none, get out, take the small gain, and wait for the next leg to finish. I don't mind taking the small 20 and 30-pip gains while waiting for the bigger picture to evolve. Even the smaller trades will be 2-3% while waiting for the Real Deal to happen.
In the very immediate future there is a strong confluence of events happening. I forgot to accompany my yearly S&R's on this chart, but I'll post the YP--YR1 zone on the next post. Notice the red line on the 4-hour chart. That is my WR2 at .9742. Another mark to look for is .9739, and that will be seen on the next chart.
My S&R's are not only helpful S&R indicators, but they have been formulized to find the period within a period that a trend has been stretched or to indicate where a bounce or reversal will happen. The yellow line at the bottom is the MR3 at .9382. When the 3's are broken, that is a strong implication heading into the next TF. This means the MR3 will not be touched next month. That is a sign, needless to say, of a strong trend, but also another sign the trend has been stretched. It's these conditions that the markets provide some ideal entries for quick pips.
Also, around the corner is something that shows even more the copious amounts of opportunities the markets provide. Sometimes, I am in a position of just trying to make a decision on what pair I want to trade. As an example, isn't it good to know the GBP/CHF is headed back up to the daily tenken at 1.5609. Unbelievable! I might close the NZD/CHF early just to make room for this pair. OTOH, there are many more delicacies on the forex menu.
This is why in order to get the gains I have talked about, the trader needs to have a methodology that will give strong indications of when there is nothing left in a trend.
BTW, the stochastics is an indicator I use, only to show when reversals might happen, but I also use it as a momentum indicator.
When the trend becomes stretchedIn nugget 1, I alluded to an obvious strong R point for the EUR/USD. In that case, it does not mean the euro is going to reverse trends, nor does it mean the trend is overextended. All it means is that at that point it will make an excellent entry for short that should net no less than 200 pips.
The AUD/USD paints a bit of a different picture. This pair is about ready for a huge reversal. The whole idea is finding and discerning when it is going to happen. The daily chart is showing the aussie flying way to high above the cloud. View it as an airplane flying too far above a cloud. The altimeter shows that the plane needs to come down, because of the high altiude. The altimeter on this chart is also showing the same thing. There is always a gravitational pull towards the cloud.
The weekly chart looks even nicer. If you count the lines forweard when the cloud has sloped downward, you will count 6. The weekly chart will be flying 1,000 pips above the cloud in 6 weeks if we are at today's level. Even further into the future shows the cloud turning bearish as there is a crossover of both senkou spans.
Personally, I can only think short when I think of the aussie because of how imminently close we are to what promises to be a huge reversal. The pair has become what I would call overextended or stretched. It is all a matter of finding an entry and taking a long ride south. If all it does is hit the top of the weekly cloud, that's circa 1,000 pips. Based on 10% margining that is a 100% gain from current level. It means at 10%, and let's say there is 10K in the account, 1 lot would be put on that trade, and a gain of 10K. That would take weeks to evolve, but there has been much talk about 20% per year, 5 % per week. This is only one trade as we peer into the future.
Strong obviations on the higher TF's make for quicker and speedier gains. Some don't like to stay in a trade and hold it for weeks. Another way to do it is wait for the break on the TF in question, and then hold it into the next candle of the TF, and bail out for some very quick and tidy gains.
Just as an example of the above. I am curently long the GBP/USD. I got a strong signal on the 8-hour chart, along with a confluence of other events. I am just waiting for the first strong break and then getting out. WR1 is on the radar, which is 1.5918. This trade is on a much smaller scale than what we see happening with the AUD/USD. In orer to define an entry for the aussie, it could be helpful to scale down to a lower TF and finding an entry. Afterward watch for momentum. If there is none, get out, take the small gain, and wait for the next leg to finish. I don't mind taking the small 20 and 30-pip gains while waiting for the bigger picture to evolve. Even the smaller trades will be 2-3% while waiting for the Real Deal to happen.
In the very immediate future there is a strong confluence of events happening. I forgot to accompany my yearly S&R's on this chart, but I'll post the YP--YR1 zone on the next post. Notice the red line on the 4-hour chart. That is my WR2 at .9742. Another mark to look for is .9739, and that will be seen on the next chart.
My S&R's are not only helpful S&R indicators, but they have been formulized to find the period within a period that a trend has been stretched or to indicate where a bounce or reversal will happen. The yellow line at the bottom is the MR3 at .9382. When the 3's are broken, that is a strong implication heading into the next TF. This means the MR3 will not be touched next month. That is a sign, needless to say, of a strong trend, but also another sign the trend has been stretched. It's these conditions that the markets provide some ideal entries for quick pips.
Also, around the corner is something that shows even more the copious amounts of opportunities the markets provide. Sometimes, I am in a position of just trying to make a decision on what pair I want to trade. As an example, isn't it good to know the GBP/CHF is headed back up to the daily tenken at 1.5609. Unbelievable! I might close the NZD/CHF early just to make room for this pair. OTOH, there are many more delicacies on the forex menu.
This is why in order to get the gains I have talked about, the trader needs to have a methodology that will give strong indications of when there is nothing left in a trend.
BTW, the stochastics is an indicator I use, only to show when reversals might happen, but I also use it as a momentum indicator.
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4xpipcounter
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Nugget 5--Understanding a trend III
Here's the AUD/USD daily chart, but with the YP--YR1 zone. Simply put it is the yearly open price to my YR1 which is the year's 1st resistance.
I don't use Fibos in my methodology, but I use them in plotting the points between the reference points. After all, it is good to know that if I am only getting a bounce to know where it will end up. Notice the difference between the YP and the YR1. There is 1331 pips between them. That is the year's range. That would mean fro the range to be complete, we would see its completion around the 78.4% mark, which is .9921. Before that happens, watch closely .9739--.9745 level.
Very related to my S&R's are the standard deviation levels. I don't like admitting it, but they may be even better than my S&R's in determining when a trend has been stretched. Watch out, though! They can also be really tricky. More on that next.
Here's the AUD/USD daily chart, but with the YP--YR1 zone. Simply put it is the yearly open price to my YR1 which is the year's 1st resistance.
I don't use Fibos in my methodology, but I use them in plotting the points between the reference points. After all, it is good to know that if I am only getting a bounce to know where it will end up. Notice the difference between the YP and the YR1. There is 1331 pips between them. That is the year's range. That would mean fro the range to be complete, we would see its completion around the 78.4% mark, which is .9921. Before that happens, watch closely .9739--.9745 level.
Very related to my S&R's are the standard deviation levels. I don't like admitting it, but they may be even better than my S&R's in determining when a trend has been stretched. Watch out, though! They can also be really tricky. More on that next.
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nunrgguy
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Re: Nugget 5--Understanding a trend III
So after 12 pages of, putting it mildly, bumpf, what we're basically talking about is a reversion to mean strategy. OK. Good so far. Now lets see how mtf fits in and a bit of PA.
Now, cutting to the chase, the 'proprietory' S&Rs wouldn't just happen to be based on zig zag/3 level semaphore and only your personal tuition clients are able to have them...
So after 12 pages of, putting it mildly, bumpf, what we're basically talking about is a reversion to mean strategy. OK. Good so far. Now lets see how mtf fits in and a bit of PA.
Now, cutting to the chase, the 'proprietory' S&Rs wouldn't just happen to be based on zig zag/3 level semaphore and only your personal tuition clients are able to have them...
Last edited:
4xpipcounter
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Gbp/usd
I wanted to post this to give a basic idea of what I mean when I say a trend was stretched. Another leg UP was easily seen on the charts. It is a move UP within the larger uptrend, which is actually a correction of the bigger picture. A lot more on that is coming. The trader also need to have an idea of where the position is headed once he gets in. There was tremendous elasticity from the point of origination for cable, so I was confident it was going to hit my WR1 at 1.5918, which it did and took the trade out for +100 pips. The peak for the day, to this point is 1.5923.
I'm going to cover how to find when a pair is ready for a strong bounce, and to be able define when it is going to reverse within its own trend or a pattern of continuation will be realized.
Within the context of this thread and with profit / beginning equity = % of gain, then the gains for the month-to-date is 218%.
Wow, cable dropped 60+ while writing this.
I wanted to post this to give a basic idea of what I mean when I say a trend was stretched. Another leg UP was easily seen on the charts. It is a move UP within the larger uptrend, which is actually a correction of the bigger picture. A lot more on that is coming. The trader also need to have an idea of where the position is headed once he gets in. There was tremendous elasticity from the point of origination for cable, so I was confident it was going to hit my WR1 at 1.5918, which it did and took the trade out for +100 pips. The peak for the day, to this point is 1.5923.
I'm going to cover how to find when a pair is ready for a strong bounce, and to be able define when it is going to reverse within its own trend or a pattern of continuation will be realized.
Within the context of this thread and with profit / beginning equity = % of gain, then the gains for the month-to-date is 218%.
Wow, cable dropped 60+ while writing this.
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Mr. Charts
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"Wow, cable dropped 60+ while writing this. "
US Initial and Continuing Claims..........
US Initial and Continuing Claims..........
4xpipcounter
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Another leg UP should be in play. 1.5718 is a cluster of support. I don't like this area for going long anymore, just because the northward march is coming to an end soon.
After all, I would hate to miss today's target by 1 pip, then wake up to what is happening now.
After all, I would hate to miss today's target by 1 pip, then wake up to what is happening now.
4xpipcounter
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Nugget 6
The next thing I'm getting into is something that will surprise a few people. That post will be coming up in the next 24 hours.
The object of this thread is to prove the antagonists and the losers on this site all wrong, which is not hard for me to do. It is a license to fail when you read copouts from ones saying "there is no magic formula", "trading depends on market conditions", etc etc. I didn't make 218% this month (Profit / beginning equity) by making excuses or running opinion polls. I make it by trading according to the exact specifications of my methodology. When I closed the GBP/USD today on the long for +100 pips, that was according to the "exact specifications of my methodology". The peak for the day was only 4 pips beyond that. I have had one losing trade in the last 5 weeks. If I wanted to make excuses or dwell on what has failed, that also would not have happened. I've had one losing week and no losing months since Oct 2007. It is because I trade accoring to the "exact specifications of my methodology".
The essence of what I am saying is simple. I have no motive but to discuss how to be a winner, which further ensconces my way of trading in me. What I hope that will accomplish is for just a few turn a deaf ear to the ones that want you to believe you cannot win in these markets consistently, and feel like all these posts have created some good for humanity. Once I feel my goal and objectives are no longer being accomplished is when I am out of here.
Next up? You gotta love it. Remember 68-95-98-100. Just a sample.
The next thing I'm getting into is something that will surprise a few people. That post will be coming up in the next 24 hours.
The object of this thread is to prove the antagonists and the losers on this site all wrong, which is not hard for me to do. It is a license to fail when you read copouts from ones saying "there is no magic formula", "trading depends on market conditions", etc etc. I didn't make 218% this month (Profit / beginning equity) by making excuses or running opinion polls. I make it by trading according to the exact specifications of my methodology. When I closed the GBP/USD today on the long for +100 pips, that was according to the "exact specifications of my methodology". The peak for the day was only 4 pips beyond that. I have had one losing trade in the last 5 weeks. If I wanted to make excuses or dwell on what has failed, that also would not have happened. I've had one losing week and no losing months since Oct 2007. It is because I trade accoring to the "exact specifications of my methodology".
The essence of what I am saying is simple. I have no motive but to discuss how to be a winner, which further ensconces my way of trading in me. What I hope that will accomplish is for just a few turn a deaf ear to the ones that want you to believe you cannot win in these markets consistently, and feel like all these posts have created some good for humanity. Once I feel my goal and objectives are no longer being accomplished is when I am out of here.
Next up? You gotta love it. Remember 68-95-98-100. Just a sample.
I must say 4xpip, your methodology seems to be strongly based on "forecasting" (ie.trying to predict future), hence your limited stop usage. My approach is totally different, based on my assumption that I can't predict the future, I simply enter positions when I feel positions might be more in my favour and run my winners and cut my losers with stops. Hence net profitable.
The problem I feel with trying to "predict the future" is it takes one major wrong prediction and you're out! whereas I can chip away with my steady compounding profits...
not saying your way is wrong though, it's just on lookers should be wary of that risk...
The problem I feel with trying to "predict the future" is it takes one major wrong prediction and you're out! whereas I can chip away with my steady compounding profits...
not saying your way is wrong though, it's just on lookers should be wary of that risk...
I also agree. Someone who says they can forecast and predict the future belongs in a horoscopes column. No one knows what's going to happen, however we can trade when we think there's most chance of the odds being in our favour, that is all.
4xpipcounter
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Leonarda, let me first say this whole thing got started when a big deal was made about one trade I made. Now, there are quite a few jumping on that bandwagon. No one doesn't bother mentioning that the worse trade of the year ended up in 28% profit, which is substantial, considering my account.
Secondly, I started this thread with the idea of people gathering little tidbits of info to at least partially replicate my success. I'm saing this respectfully, I didn't open this thread to run an opiion poll, because I do not care what anyone's opinion is. I made 218%this month (That is profit / opening equity. I have to repeat that for the ones who don't knwo how to figure profit--slightly faceitious.), and just about all my trades had no pullback. So you really think I'm going to apologize for that? Do you think I'm going to sit around and hear a bunch of losers tell me it can't be done? One of my favorites I read on this site is, "You can't always make profits due to cetain market conditions." My finger is down my throat so I can puke.
Onlookers don't need to be worried about the risk. I never got into my methodology, and the ways how you can make a mint in this business. This business is not about predciting. It is about forecasting. I'm not some retard in a corner somewhere with a crystal ball. You don't make the consistent gains and the pips I do by "predicting".
Secondly, I started this thread with the idea of people gathering little tidbits of info to at least partially replicate my success. I'm saing this respectfully, I didn't open this thread to run an opiion poll, because I do not care what anyone's opinion is. I made 218%this month (That is profit / opening equity. I have to repeat that for the ones who don't knwo how to figure profit--slightly faceitious.), and just about all my trades had no pullback. So you really think I'm going to apologize for that? Do you think I'm going to sit around and hear a bunch of losers tell me it can't be done? One of my favorites I read on this site is, "You can't always make profits due to cetain market conditions." My finger is down my throat so I can puke.
Onlookers don't need to be worried about the risk. I never got into my methodology, and the ways how you can make a mint in this business. This business is not about predciting. It is about forecasting. I'm not some retard in a corner somewhere with a crystal ball. You don't make the consistent gains and the pips I do by "predicting".
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