Reality Check ?
Last week I waffled on about the big Anomaly given the divergence between the macro environment and the bounce which was in play. Well it seems this week we had a dose of reality wiht market trending down and eating all of last gains. It was a good week for the hook$ter - but should have been much better :cheesy:
As we currently stand the Cb's have decided come clean and are now moving slowly towards the views of Soros and Rogers..... Financial market turmoil to persist they say..... something they have known for several months and certainly well before the US equities hit their peak..
You may remember Greenspan with his 30% chance of recession comment last Feb and after delayed reaction equities had a mini crash. He was taking the P*** he knew what was coming.... after all he created it.
Well here we are in February.....and now recession is virtually nailed on say the smarties but the Cb's say serious slowdown but not outright recession
Rant over........markets
US - Dow too close to 12100(to short) for my liking again I would like to see a bounce into last weeks range for the next swing move lower.... not sure what will give us that move - poss bond insurer bail out ..... who knows but I'm structurally short and near term short. I am not happy with the near term short position and expect to be stopped out. But if it's not then great....
Oil - Looks like the lads want to defend $80 by cutting production so the rumours say anyway..... "defending" smacks of prices are (really) weaker than they appear. If that is right then this pop which began Thurs/Friday is at risk on a 1-2wk view. In addition, in the absence of geopolitics I can't see how $90+ oil makes sense ...if we are in the midst of a "serious downturn" which now threatens the global economy. Rgardless of my views -and markets often disregard them - oil remains a great trading market.
Gold - very interesting for the coming week as we attempt another move to record highs. Currently we're around $22 off the highs basis April contract - and are now in the 3rd drive of this leg up. New Highs would be wonderful place for me to build a short position - a little bird told me $900 plus on spot Gold might be a little frothy ... so new highs would give me ample comfort in case the little bird is correct.
I've just covered the markets that immediately jumped out at me as being tradeworthy but clearly there are loads of individual stocks which offer profit potential.
I would just add one more strategic(?) opportunity ... US Long Bonds are relatively high (yields low) by historic standards ..... I just wonder with all these rate cuts whether inflation gets out of hand in future and kills the rally in the Long Bond ?? Lazard's have said they view the secular slide in rates as coming to an end...and a new era of higher rates is on the way... Some may have notice the long bonds got whalloped late week as the auction experience less demand than expected... Does this mean something going forward ?? Time will tell.
Just read that the great US of A is in danger of being downgraded i.e less creditworthy. This will surely impact demand for their bonds and maybe late last week was the canary in the coal mine ???
But where does all that money fleeing US go to ? Gold/Precious/Solid Hi Yield stocks ? Should be interesting to see...
Hs
Last week I waffled on about the big Anomaly given the divergence between the macro environment and the bounce which was in play. Well it seems this week we had a dose of reality wiht market trending down and eating all of last gains. It was a good week for the hook$ter - but should have been much better :cheesy:
As we currently stand the Cb's have decided come clean and are now moving slowly towards the views of Soros and Rogers..... Financial market turmoil to persist they say..... something they have known for several months and certainly well before the US equities hit their peak..
You may remember Greenspan with his 30% chance of recession comment last Feb and after delayed reaction equities had a mini crash. He was taking the P*** he knew what was coming.... after all he created it.
Well here we are in February.....and now recession is virtually nailed on say the smarties but the Cb's say serious slowdown but not outright recession
Rant over........markets
US - Dow too close to 12100(to short) for my liking again I would like to see a bounce into last weeks range for the next swing move lower.... not sure what will give us that move - poss bond insurer bail out ..... who knows but I'm structurally short and near term short. I am not happy with the near term short position and expect to be stopped out. But if it's not then great....
Oil - Looks like the lads want to defend $80 by cutting production so the rumours say anyway..... "defending" smacks of prices are (really) weaker than they appear. If that is right then this pop which began Thurs/Friday is at risk on a 1-2wk view. In addition, in the absence of geopolitics I can't see how $90+ oil makes sense ...if we are in the midst of a "serious downturn" which now threatens the global economy. Rgardless of my views -and markets often disregard them - oil remains a great trading market.
Gold - very interesting for the coming week as we attempt another move to record highs. Currently we're around $22 off the highs basis April contract - and are now in the 3rd drive of this leg up. New Highs would be wonderful place for me to build a short position - a little bird told me $900 plus on spot Gold might be a little frothy ... so new highs would give me ample comfort in case the little bird is correct.
I've just covered the markets that immediately jumped out at me as being tradeworthy but clearly there are loads of individual stocks which offer profit potential.
I would just add one more strategic(?) opportunity ... US Long Bonds are relatively high (yields low) by historic standards ..... I just wonder with all these rate cuts whether inflation gets out of hand in future and kills the rally in the Long Bond ?? Lazard's have said they view the secular slide in rates as coming to an end...and a new era of higher rates is on the way... Some may have notice the long bonds got whalloped late week as the auction experience less demand than expected... Does this mean something going forward ?? Time will tell.
Just read that the great US of A is in danger of being downgraded i.e less creditworthy. This will surely impact demand for their bonds and maybe late last week was the canary in the coal mine ???
But where does all that money fleeing US go to ? Gold/Precious/Solid Hi Yield stocks ? Should be interesting to see...
Hs
