Hook Shot's Blog

[Hook Shot]

Random musings.......

Ah Bull markets don't you just love them....

I'm reading comments of how some of the lads are printing money on dax and to a lesser extent on us markets. As for me i've caught some but was a late convert to the bullish camp and even then consistently had my doubts about sustainability...

More visits to the shrink unfortunately.....

Anyway... with stocks flying globally... the game as every unbiased trader knows it to buy the dips... EU/US seemed to have dipped tuesday so we are waiting for the next pbk .... Unless of course we can find other opps in the meantime...

TESCO - is looking like it's pullback might end soon. Tesco want to become a global titan and some say it wants to be top dog - toppling WalMart ... in view of that this pbk wherever it ends will be a good entry...

Hbos - in a similar situation... it's what I call a Golden Bank so I'm not worried about the media talk about losing market share...etc

Hsbc - has been consolidating the big pullback which has appeared just a correction and has remained iffy despite the roaring bull market in hong kong/shanghai indices. Perhaps today is the day/week when it finally decides it wants to participate ?

I have to look at laggard stocks cos unlike many of the successful fast money players I can't buy Dax/US close to all time highs :cheesy:

Close to all time highs says to me the next high probability trade is short - so if it keeps going up I have to find other lower stocks which might find religion. Hopefully some of the blue chips mentioned above will oblige.

Note Well
Indices are high and flying so my system says the best trade is to wait for them to run out of steam.... No I don't mean the big waterfall ( I wish) no a normal counter trend would do....

Nikkei is teasing 2007 highs again a 18300 zone but it seems to be getting vertigo judging from the days action... I like Nikkei as some of you know but haven't traded it for a while but perhaps a payday is around the corner ???

Elsewhere.........
OIL is rampant but hardly any comnents in the media... I want a pbk to get long
Gold may have put in a low (waiting for confirmation)...

Waiting does not put points on the board - but I try and use the time to find opps which are "out of phase" in the hope that they will fall into line.... hence tesco et al.

SMALL CAPS
This is an absolute gold mine with stocks which I have followed to new lows now surging ... some have tripled or more in the last 9m and they are real companies, many with asset backing and real earnings and cashflows....

I know nothing about the place - but Africa is a place where selected small caps seem to be making sizeable short term gains to go along with the long term potential.... I've even set up my own Africa Focus Fund to attempt to take things more seriously - Bono and Geldoff eat your heart out ....

As I write Macho man Dax is off 70pts from today's high - YES!!!

 

[Hook Shot]

Making the Probabilities work 4 U

This will be brief and simple..

There are a number of markets around the globe that are screaming bull markets... and I expect one or more of them to take a pause this week if only for a brief period.

Despite apparent softness in US late last week....

Hong Kong closed at ALL TIME highs on friday just shy of 22k

India is very close to breaking out to new highs .... perhaps on the way to 15k ?

Japan is teasing 18.3k for a breakout to new multi year highs.... ?

Australia AGAIN tagged 6400 resistance at the highs on Asx 200 and must make
it's mind up soon.....

US/Europe are softer but Asia Pacific seems to have de-coupled ... but for how long ??
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Forex
Euro/Yen - all time high Friday almost to 167.00 (new highs 6 weeks running)
$/Yen - nearing multi year highs a shade over 124.00
aud/$ - hit multi year highs fr8iday
nzd/$ - hit record highs friday

OIL - firmly bullish but at resistance...
Brent tagged marginal 2007 highs at 72ish
Nymex tagged prior swing highs at 70.

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Why do I think that any of this stuff might be of interest to profit hungry traders/investors ??? Because we know that markets don't move in a straight line

Hopefully one of these instruments will oblige in coming week...

HS

 

[Hook Shot]

What can I say ??

It's been a good start to the week as the Asian markets start to fall in line with weakness in US/EU indices and it's been an absolute $cream!!

Also got the inevitable wobble in Euro/Yen that I was banging on about... the thing is we've had 3 waves of 100+ moves and we've only had 2 full days - amazing. However, I only caught the first one althought the bounce and sell off should have been bagged...

There's a problem........ I'm now flat but see very little GOOd VALUE shorts to play as we wait for the inevitable bounce off these lows........ I know ... I know trailing stops and letting profits run blah blah blah.... sometimes easier said than done when the profit is heaving...

So whilst we wait for a potential bounce in indices as they consider whether to mount a window dressing rally into Friday ... will have to scavenge among stox for potential short opps although with indices in this shape they'll be caned at the open probably...

Interesting point perhaps is s&p 500 is quoted 10pts off it's official closing value (a lot) and it will be interesting to see whether the lads try to bring this one back by US open - especially as key data is due today...

A bright fella I heard on Cnbc Monday reckons the data will be pretty good .... so we'll have to see ... more importantly whether it will provide us with that dream long trade in indices ............ This lad called for Gold to sell off too when it was just over 660 and it has so I becoming a fan...

Regards

HS

 

[Hook Shot]

Who can resist the pull of gravity ?

Another simple posting.....

India/Hong Kong/Brazil - all hit record highs Tuesday 3rd

Kiwi dollar/£-$/EuroYen all hit multi year or record highs Tuesday 3rd
(Aussie dollar hits it high Monday.

Misc: Euro$ sniffing new highs
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Indices
US/Main European indices all hit recovery highs Tues 3rd - all within 100pts of their years hi

Nikkei made recovery highs at 18230 ish 3 July and closed poorly

In July The S&p 500 has exceeded the 50pt range for most if not all of the last 10years - even when the price was much smaller than 1520!!!!!

Very often US is weak after a holiday - July 4th Wed.(Source - Socrates)

US has rallied 4d from last wednesday's lows - 4d is often a normal counter trend move i.e we could have a fool's rally on our hands - despite the apparent strength.

July 3 was a major swing high in 2k6 and we melted down to 18/19th July - losing 56 (s&p 500) points (~500pts for Dow).

Conclusion: There are many pregnant situations at the moment notably in forex and indices but don't forget OIL .............

Prepare for big moves in coming days and weeks .....they can't ALL keep going up........ IMHO

 

[Hook Shot]

Same-o-Same-o

Focus narrows this week to

1 Brent
2 EuroYen
3 Nasdaq

Edit
4 Kiwi dollar looking very interesting too ......
All getting a bit stretched perhaps are prime candidates for The Stalker !........

Happy Trading

HS

 

[Hook Shot]

Art Of Seduction

:cheesy: I'm sure some of the Lady traders might take issue with this entry ...perhaps not salacious enough

No... what I mean to say is oftentimes the trade needs time...........

Met this lady from mexico not mexico-european but real Mexican .... yeh indian.... at adult ed college trying to keep up my learning and stuff........

First off I made no impact ....... glances in cafeteria occasional conversationals but nothing really............... then she tells me about her man back home.... yeh yeh yeh

She tells me her sister says he's now clubbing regularly since she went abroad (to broaden here education) and that's not like him...

She's worried .......... but she trusts him !!!! I'm cool I know the Gods are smiling on me - the more worried she becomes the better the probabilitiy - capeeeesh.

Anyway nightclub stories keep rolling in ........... someone's gotta listen right....
I mean it's the decent thing :cheesy:

Okay Okay ........... I'm pretty close to home now and probably a foregone conclusion - if I were really honest but ........................ she's a good girl so I'm not counting chicken just yet............

What this reminded me is trades can be all about time and waiting for the inevitable to happen............... no it was not inevitable for her fella to go astray but odds were betta than 50/50 once he'd show clear signs and i did my due diligence... AND WAITED 4 the moment to ...........
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Soap Box Message

Sometimes we want the market to do something now or tomorrow - but the market will do what it wants, when it wants.... (as many experienced traders know)... You just gotta be prepared to ACT when it sets up for you... as it will inevitably...


Brent cited on previous msg came good but the boy had to wait for euphoria to subside
the pick up the points afterwards...........

EuroYen - I did not play well despite all the preaching above it was a pretty messy profit bits and pieces (far from the clean trade it should have been).

Naz - stubborn as a mule and tried to tell him/her to go down but got kicked in the face.
Thankfully, just glancing blows and was able to stick around for payday #1 Tuesday 24th.

Where to next ??

Cable = starting to break down but not convinced....though i wish the cable lads (and lasses well). NO 4 me (para me... )

Yen Re-surgence is an interesting theme and I look to Aussie Yen(australian dollar:Jap YEN) and KiwiYen New Zealand $: Jap YEN look muy interessante .. that might be a bit italian ? but forgive me... I'm tired
These 2 pair have started to come off nicely .......... but whilst I'm happy to pick up profits for now ............ how can any global financier shun borrowing cheap money to invest it in higher yielding assets.... ??? Unless you make it painfully unprofitable for them to do so..... we are not there yet IMO

OIL
Brent still looks interesting for me since Sep Brent has now taken out $75 and 'wed or Thursday I expect it to mount some sort of recovery......... will it last ? F knows but I'm alert to the possiblity

To be honest .... I'm getting a bit confused about the direction for oil....... the selling was "relatively" easy but where next I don't really know ..... yeh I'll be looking to buy the dip since the sell off is only 2d old (@Mo) and not terminal (in my book) - but all the slowdown noise is starting to have a bewildering effect..... I bet the robot traders don't have this problem....!!

Elsewhere on the INDEX front .......... us and european indices are giving an opportunity to now look for longs ..............scalps yeh but who knows when decent swing longs will set up ? I'm HOPING Dax will shoot it's load tomorrow in the first hour or two - somewhere in the 7700-7600 cash to enable a cautious hook shot to try and get long..............

You know.... cautious and "hook shot" don't really go hand in glove after all Hook Shot is quite a violent attacking stroke !:cheesy:

I've left out fixed income cos I've not paid attention but in summaryI'm looking to buy indices, oil and currencies like YEN (short aussieyen, kiwiyen, .....euroyen is already leading the way it seems...)

To get out of the detail and into the broader message (4 those who don't already know it)

WORK OUT A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADING SCENARIO AND WAIT.............

NO you're not forever waiting ................... if you stockpile opps you'd be surprised how often as one trade closes another one opens .......... to paraphrase

Hope some of this makes sense ........ some of it was under the influence

happy days
h

Trading is still a work in progress .......... nonetheless :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

so now you are in the business of young mexican girls

sorry about the euryen trades...if i read correctly. me, me had my share, cant complain. just because i took scaled exits didnt make a pile, but overall took home about 200 pips :cheesy:

keep the posts, and insist on the mexican girl.....:cheesy:

 

[Hook Shot]

Sr Tequila - I thought you'd like the chica bit ...... early days but the road map seems pretty clear ...... I love when she speaks spanish really fast so I can't understand a word ..... kind of like Shakira and that girl from Miami sound machine forgotten her name....

When I was younger lusted after a chilean refugee called Marisol .... I think she got me interested in Latinos....

Okay with euroyen... plenty more fish etc

h

 

[Hook Shot]

Something a little different

Trading wise it's been pretty good......... although I made a complete horlicks of a gift Dow short.... trying to play the scalper just to keep busy and missed a regulation swing trade .......... note to self stick to your strengths !!!!

The Longer View

Watching 27th July for potential significance since TA gurus seem to coalesce around that date (and early Aug)

I am very interested in US housing stox tracking closely but not a buy as yet... blood in the streets and all that...

I am very interested in Europe's big insurer Allianz 160 euros seems cheap as chips and the Smart Lads seem to building a stake almost on the sly.... The same lads were dabbling in AbnAmro before barclays/rbs got interested.... the same lads who..... - no enough said ............ These lads don't mess ... so I'm looking for a dawn raid on the stock ...... timing unclear but stock is dipping so ...

New Zealand $/Yen -96.67 fascinates me.
Pretty much a poster child for the carry trade... their central bank raised rates to 8.25% tonight and then said/inferred ... they may pause going forward........ should have interesting effect on the pair especially if Yen continues it's bullish tendencies !!!

New Zealand/US $ could also be interesting and worth a watch....

To round things off for the guture look out for Ravi Bopara in the England Test Team within the next 6m. That's cricket by the way.for those not familiar ........

All the best

h

 

[Hook Shot]

Xmas has arrived early...

We got a bit of action in stox Thursday which the whole world knows by now....

Volatility has arrived big time and looks like it's gonna be here for a while......... We got a washout low Thursday ... but today will be great cos people will be looking for a bounce but not really trusting any rally ergo plenty of 2 sided action..

I'm looking to sell any rallies that fail (doh!) but using S&p futures as my guide ... I see rez at 1493 -5 sep contract then 1503ish the 1510ish... currently we stand at 1488.5 so 1510ish would be quite a move on Friday...

Stand out trade #1 were Yen pairs - but for me Kiwi-Yen was mega ... I highlighted the poss on an fx board but I think I was intruding... hope it was of some use to someone :cheesy:

Stand out #2 was Apple on thursday... I'm not picking the obvious - -I made a gzillion points on shorting dow playing every twist and turn during the day cos that would be a misrepresentation No Apple was great 4 me cos market was in free fall and it was making all time highs - thanks steve2468 ( as was Ibm). I thought hey melting market and new all time highs - anomaly here so I made apple crumble ... my fave at school ..
I sent Mr Jobs & Co from just under $148 to sub $143 for a decent 500 pips (in the bank).

There were a few more but these two were my faves not least cos I telegraphed em ahead of time.... OIL was also good to me yesterday .... but a bit rickety and couldn't compete (for once) with opps elsewhere in the point generation stakes.. and anyway the
big call was a week ago as Brent was tickling $78..before it got the memo and broke $75

Where to now just jiggling intraday on indices and hoping for rallies in Cable and Brent .. to get really stuck into them two but basically sniffing around this trio for the next few days...

Also looking to check for stocks which are still making record highs Friday which might be suspect ... you gotta be careful though cos some make highs cos their about to be gobbled up but that was unlikely in Ibm and for apple there were better places for bidders to strike imo - Incidentally I'm keeping a stash of big name stocks which made new highs preferably all time highs this week... If this softness continues there should be a few down days in those lofty stocks even now....

Trade Well & Have fun...

 

[Hook Shot]

Another Day in Paradise

My head is filled with so much stuff these days..... I thought it might be helpful to dump some of it here to relieve the tension

US Markets
Wed 29th August.... we got a sharp rally in indices seeing 13300 in Asian sesh. I want this rally to continue because flying at this rate it sets up a nice trade in the oppositive direction....... for over bought reasons if nothing else. I'd like it to tag 13400 today and ideally test 13500 by Friday.

Rumours are rife of a Fed cut on or before the 18 Sept meeting and common sense would dictate that the Fed will embark on a series of easings over coming months. That should be good for stocks...... but it's too neat... so I'm edgey about the long side. Don't get me wrong I'll trade things as I see them but..... for me it helps to have a bias borne of some kind of frame of reference... So my bias is to the short side but clearly any Fed action will keep me on a tight leash !

For today Thursday.. I'm looking to play the burn out in Europe as they hopefully get over excited about the big move in the US. Some will have gone short in US overnight but for me I favour the European trade .(Dax/Ftse) it's cleaner.. However, those who were hunting the short term apex in Dow overnight would be in profit now by up to 40-50pts. (at the time of typing anyway)

OIL
Given what I'm reading about pronounced slowdown in US pending and also weakness in the global economy I'm surprised Nymex is so strong as it approaches $74... Maybe it's looking at the developing storm in the Atlantic... Not sure but that too is developing into a nice short opportunity.. We are not there yet I don't think but the higher it goes the better it will be (obviously) ..... . Wonder if Bush has plans for Iran ...?? Maybe the comeback in Oil is just general market movement ... but it's interesting because slowdowns and rising oil prices seem an odd mix... time will tell. Incidentally the same can be said for Copper .....double top at highs and then possibly a lower top just recently......... it all seems too simple must check my models once more,,

Forex
They all seem to move on weakness in US and some of the cross rates mentioned in a previous note have done well (come down from near record highs) ... I saw a fall coming but in the end New Zealand dollar virtually crashed particularly against the Yen. I did not get the full benefit due to confusion on my timeframes ... but in hindsight it should have been pretty easy to catch the turn and keep lowering stops. Clearly room for improvement on my part.

For now Aussie dollar ........ seems a bit strange. US rates are highly likely to start coming down due to weakness in the economy - bad for the dollar. In OZ looks like their economy is robust and rates are at multi-year highs... so the direction for the aussie vs usd should be up.. The only fly in the ointment on that view would be if equities start falling again. So I see the logic of the trade but must keep one eye on stocks ...
Kiwi dollar is sort of similar ...but the Aussie central bank seems more comfortable with rising rates and does not seem as worried about strong currency as the kiwis.

Bonds (Us ten year)
If my theories on US economy (pinched from elsewhere) hold any water then the megabull market in bonds should continue ... problems is they don't seem to want to pull back right now.... somehow that has to happen but not sure what magic the lads will work to bring it about .... surprising/conflicting economic stats are the odds on favourite

Gold
This is pretty interesting ......... it's been relatively stable during market slide recently which would seem to imply the bulls have not changed their position. Mr Ambrose-Evans in the UK press (Times or Telegraph can't remember) last week implies that further weakess is likely before the much talked about rocket move ! On the other hand Evy Hambro of Merrill's says position rebuilding after the credit crisis should give a strong move in Gold ... he seemed to hint that it would not take that long for the upmove to get under way. I think both guys know alot about precious metals so as I said Gold is looking pretty interesting. In terms of action nothing right now but poking around some of the US goldies since they are just coming off 52w lows...

Final Thought
Dax on daily chart has not really bounced from it's lows... which seems a bit odd given US bounce... Mmmh Deutsche Bank remains pretty weak...

Good Bye and Good Trading
Hs

 

[Hook Shot]

A Very Long Shot

I see Ftse binaries say there is less than 4% chance that ftse will close down today...
I happen to believe it will close up ..... but sub 4% sounds almost like a guarrantee... and there are very few of them in this game :cheesy:

 

[Hook Shot]

Interesting Week Ahead

Indices continue to be interesting as price action seems to indicate that people are starting to think that it's now safe to go back into the water again.... we shall see!

As I type Dow is still around 100pts below Fridays highs ...

My main trade at the moment is Nymex Crude ...

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL%20V7&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=bar&st=

As you can see hopefully we have had 7 straight higher bars to Monday when we reached 7460... if we include the inside day just after the swing lows (6850ish).. we've also had 8 higher lows...on daily basis. This makes it a bit stretched by my peculiar system. Interestingly so far we have not been able to improve on 7460 so lets see what the day holds.

I'd really like to get one more upbar above 7460 because it brings us one step closer to the turn but we'll have to wait. Pullbacks in oil usually are minimum 100pts ($1) but this time I expect around 150pts min....

BE VERY CAREFUL IF YOU WANT TO TRADE THIS POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY - IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A SPIKE UP BEFORE WE GET THAT INEVITABLE BREAK OF A DAILY LOW..


Indices
I think there is a lot of crazy price action and I'm BEARISH.... I say crazy cos we're in the midst of crisis and the energing enthusiasm is bewildering ... can Bush and Bernanke really save the world in 48hrs or so .... maybe but I think it will pay me to be sceptical.

Forex/Commods
I get the sense that they might be waiting for another leg down in the indices as fear returns.... they just seem (generally) to be hanging there trembling as if waiting for the bogeyman........ deer and headlights come to mind. The next move looks down but given that view must wait on market moves to confirm or obliterate this "theory".

Cable - @ 2.0174 last night it looked v. interesting with swing high around 2.0233 if we did take a dive down.... with 2.0123 the current price looks like a few others might be thinking the same way...

Wild Thought

Everyone expects Fed to cut rates in 2wks time and they probably will but bonds (judging from US 10year note) are high so whilst they will probably go higher further out there is the risk that he does not cut rates this time and bonds might discover that gravity still exists........ Okay it's way out of left field but something I'm keeping in the back of my mind....

Over and out...

Trade well

hs

 

[Hook Shot]

Been a long time....

It's been a lot of fun of late as I got my rhythm back...

If you've had "it" and then lost it ..... having to make do with sub prime performance - you really appreciate it when you regain it once more.

Market wise most globals are high .... Euro/Y, Aud/Y, Euro/$, Cable, Aussie $, Gold, Oil ..... and indices are not that weak just yet.

So in theory plenty of bull trend to latch onto. The simple strat has been to buy the pullbacks which normally haven't lasted more than 4d. Yes.... if you wait for the sell offs to exhaust themselves we have normally seen new highs.... Waiting can be profitable but you do need some discipline to wait for the trades to come to you.

Oil has been fantastic ...I haven't traded it that often (waiting !) but last week made a good whack and still left loads on the table...... way too much. Yesterday (waiting time one week ) we got almost a carbon copy set up which I didn't take and it zoomed +700pips... Incidentally had I "held" my original trade just ~ $85 (cos I scaled in ) it would be been worth over 1000pips within a week. That's the crazy bull market we've got in oil.

I repeated the same feat in Gold last week too - waited 4 the pullback then new highs ... seems so simple but I keep bailing out early even though commonsense says move your stop up.

Still work to do to sort that one out.

But this madness is going on in forex too it's amazing. Euro dollar, Aussie dollar/$, Cable....... all one way traffic :cheesy:

Not sure why I bother with indices at the moment with the "uncertainty" rather than just buying into a mega bull trend in one of the aforementioned markets...

OIh well dow has broken to new lows ......but but Nymex is testing the days lows near 9200.

Nymex is more important ...... since Friday's have often been new highs and if the trend is to continue then it just take out $96 ... but even a test would make me happy... So I'm plotting a potential long trade (which may not materialise since it may not make new highs or rally into friday... :cheesy: ).

$92 seems to be holding so maybe just maybe....

Over and out..

Hs

 

[Hook Shot]

The Sun is about to shine...

As mentioned last time ..... loadza stuff has been riding high and I feel we are nearing a turning point.

The indices are looking weak and this usually causes a wobble or two in the fx/comms. So just in case...If the indices do recover great cos they are still near the lows of the day....so far

High Fliers
-------------
Spot Gold $847 so far today
Euro/$ 147 so far today
Cable 210.50 so far today
Aud/$ 93.97 so far today
Dec Nymex - $98.62 .......... :cheesy:

There will inevitably be profit-taking. It's may be brought nearer (imo) with the parabolic moves in some markets. So if the indices do go for their favorite triple century decline.... these high fliers might get a dose of vertigo ......

As Ever Vigilance, Patience..... then strike like a Cobra.

Ps - I will be checking high flying US stocks too just in case...

 

[Hook Shot]

Update

Has not been spell or grammar checked accept my apologies ...

So we got a triple century decline in US which is now becoming the norm on a bad day...
One day maybe soon it will go for the burn and test -400 and -500 like in the ol' days ...Anyway I digress...

All the global favourites dipped with the US but have mainly held in there- which is weird at least to me... The first point to make is that the dow was already falling at -150 around the time of post but the currencies did not really react til' later giving a nice opportunity wth lower risk..... for my style.

Gold, Euro/$, Cable, Aud/$ and Crude remain pretty strong after wed dip....... sort of implying we should get a rally/stabilisation in indices which seems to be taking place with ftse at 6400. Dow is still marginally above the close at 340 so we are not yet out of the woods.

Okay ....... what does all this waffle mean ? It means, for me anyway, the large opportunities remain in forex ........ because carry trade crosses are not factoring in a sharp move south in equities.... i.e there is relative value should this transpire.

On the flipside equity bulls will say we are oversold especially after the additional overnight meltdown. Maybe, but US futures have rebounded a long way off overnight lows so not really much value left - in my book... in either direction. Although a big bounce today will have me looking for the short side in fx/indices...

Oil/Gold
Still there or thereabouts to use the cricket vernacular..... part of me says we maybe forming a lower top but I'm jumping the gun a bit. The trend remains up up up (as my old ski teacher used to say) and when last checked Dec Gold was within 1.5% of highs, Oil within a $1 of their highs.. so not much to say other than still waiting for the profit taking sell off .....

Wed's 400pip fall in oil and Gold's 3% pbk have come back 50%. Common sense says we must make new highs into Friday ...... so if we don't get them it could get very interesting....

Conclusion

Indices are indecisive....now - [the big opp was after Late Tues rally in US]

Global bull markets in aforementioned fx/black and yellow continue...
Risk lovers may decide to short the profit taking pbk when it arrives - which it will ... But at present SHORTS are like trying to cross a busy motorway... for most anyway.

The more conservative will buy the pullbacks .... but this means doing nothing for a bit

Okay so nothing you didn't already know .... But it's helped to clarify my thinking if nothing else :cheesy:

 

[Hook Shot]

Happy Friday

Briefly

Dow dipped to 200ma and once again decided it had gone far enough - lovely vbtm.
Few bears with their bums on fire last night Continued strength if seen sees initially 359ish......then a bit higher ... there are some intervening levels but safe to say lots of overhead roofs and even a blockbuster day sees the downtrend line roughly in ~ 500/20 region. This looks fairly contained then .

US indices went down 4wks into the lows yesterday and the summer smackdown was of a similar duration. Not sure what this means but ........


OIL is looking interesting ... with an inside day on Thursday ... and making a second one today...very small range... so mega move (I love that phrase) is expected today.

Dec Gold is looking a little peaky .....probably a bit tired after the weeks exertions but remains above 820/825 zone so still okay... Will be interesting to see if Gold makes a dart for the highs today cos the rejection on Thursday looked decisive... perhaps it's just me ... in any case still interesting cos OIL is at a decision point.

Aussie/$ is also looking interesting as it coils within a pennant formation below the highs but not that much below.

Dollar continues to take a pounding on the cross rates ...... with euro and cable going higher again.

I know sages keep saying when trends form in fx markets they can go on for ages but...
the next high probability trade has to be a dollar bounce in my view.... which sort of chimes with my long awaited profit taking "move" on the anti dollars. Okay okay ... so it's obvious but I'm a simple man!

Aussie/ OIL/Dow - focus for the day ........ lots of financials should limp higher but these are not straight forward situations....

Have a good one everyone........ today is 9-11 by the way

Hs

 

[Hook Shot]

Bill McLaren says....

There's been some interesting debate Dow 2007 about "calls" big and small and their values/merits.......... I don't wish to re-hash the debate ... but Bill McLaren on of CNBC's long time TA's believes the party is probably over for the US market.....

http://www.mclarenreport.com.au

Look on the left hand side for the FREE CNBC reports and go to Nov ...

Interesting reading.... he also thinks it's curtains for Copper which I kind of expected given the mess we're in....and the CB's have just owned up to it ... To be fair they've been saying it for the last 4wks or so but very few were listening...

In fact old Greenie has been saying the "R" word since at least late Feb ... and when markets realised what he'd said they tanked..... he then backtracked so he would not frighten the horses ...

Then again....
If the market regains bullish tack then we buy the retest of the recent lows and ride the rocket to the Moon.. 14200+... very nice...

Thought you might like to know....

Final Word
We are currently 1000pts off all time highs ..~ -7% and now with lower high in place we could become unhinged at any time....

 

[Hook Shot]

Life is Great !

Belated Happy New Year to one and all........ hope it's an even better one for everyone.

Life is pretty good right now work is fine )) Trading is good although I'm getting a little over confident/laid back right now (which I need to correct). Personal life is going really well clap.......... I also have a great idea for a business which I'm preparing a business plan for ...... not new idea but perhaps a slightly new twist.... NO can't say (yet).............. I've even got back into training ........and by Valentines Day should be back in/near the sort of condition I was in my late student days ........... so mega pleased about that ... Easy to let things slip as we get older so glad was able to beat myself into better shape.

There is one not so nice aspect ......yep chronic bad tummy ....it's an absolute nightmare as you can imagine ........... I live in hope that something can cure me!

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Marketwise clearly things look awful in equity land and my focus is on the DAX. It's not that far off it's all time high (~5%) but refuses to buckle......despite the smackdown in US.
However, that one day pop on tuesday to circa 7925/30 looks like a place to hang my hat........ we shall see...............

Japan like US is getting it in the neck and will be interesting if the lads decide to bring it back since some big dogs are saying they like Japan - again we'll see......... Some have previously said they liked the US when it was down at these kind of levels-ish in Nov. Again we'll see... but I'm bearing it in mind....

Can the eurosterling express train keep on chugging ..... evertime I buy the dip it just goes higher but this game must end at some time no ....?

Gold........really interesting...still on a flyer and support has come in pretty high all very bullish but voices are now calling for a pbk.... lets see if it obliges.. Oftentimes it pulls back late dec or early jan then flies into Feb....... has it taken off ahead of schedule ?

UK Equities
As some may know I like blue chip dead beat stocks which people have left for dead and which usually.... eventually crawl their way back..... creating a nice buy and hold trade.

Well there are loads of those especially in banking .... but no the sector which attracts me is housebuilding. The sector looks as if nobody will ever buy a house again......... some yields are tending towards 10% and even if cut in half are still attractive. This looks really interesting opportunity because whatever the news to come you gotta believe the need for shelter has not gone away........ all the demographic factors plus the new migrant workers...........and and ... I reckon someone must/will see this and we should see some m&a in the sector....

There are loads of other stuff to mention but uk housebuilders just jumped out at me....

Oh the dow put in another late rally and we should see a new daily high above 738 ...now 683..... but nothing good happens in my book until it exceeds 4d counter trend move..... and that's just the minimum we need... imo. That takes us well into next week............. Remember the last time we took out the previous days high it failed in hours and went to new lows........

I say we "should" see 738 test and higher Thursday cos that what often happens....having said that in Japan we got a similar reversal Wed and overnight we made an inside day....... not really what you expect to see....... and not particularly positive ........... So there we have it a conundrum. At least we know where our lines are in Japan and US.........and for that matter DAX !

Hope that random walk makes some send to someone......

Hs

 

[Hook Shot]

The Big Anomaly

As I sit here by my desk this cold saturday afternoon wishing I was in sunnier climes ...I can't help wondering just one or two things......

The stock markets have had a wonderful rally off the lows ..... and the last few days have been streaking ahead. Techies are saying we are getting into overbought territory but then some say market climbs a wall of worry.... you pays your money etc

What is hitting me square in the face is Jim Rogers and George Soros reckon we are in or about to have the worst recession since World War 2. This is quite striking given their record at calling strategic moves in the market.

Rogers says he is still short the Investment Banks and will short more on a rally... he said this as recently as Friday 1 Feb 2008.

Markets are rallying hard ... and a couple of experts are predicting a mega recession. I also read a recent note by another big dog who sees value in markets (but he may have a longer time horizon) - he does think financials are still toxic. So there is a semblance of consensus since financials make up a large part of the market in US and UK.

All this leads me to believe that whilst we (may) get some more rally ... I suspect there is more downside to come. In US we have rallied over 1100 points - and if the bear market is NOT over ......... well you can work it out for yourselves.

Strategy
I'm reviewing US/UK financials ..... to add spice to my current index strategy.

I'm taking a special interest in Spain despite not being a "round the clock" market.

I'm gonna familiarise myself with Japan once more..... I used to be able score 200pts for fun ....when I had my eye in ......... lets see if I can get my arms around it again.

The Big Anomaly.... ?

I think we're about to enter the second phase of The Golden Period ... where direction is already mapped out. The challenge is how to maximise the opportunities without taking undue risk.

Hs