Gug's Hot Buys

[gugaplex]

Good call on PD and Conoco! You never know what the markets will do, as they comprise individuals who may or may not do what you would like them to do with your stock. Since this is the case, I suggest buying stocks that are far from their peaks (like your YHOO pick), and selling those that are near (like Conoco).

Who knows, Conoco may meet or beat it's high of $72, but is it worth the down-side risk of a further popping of the oil bubble?

 

[Hook Shot]

Good point Guga Conoco has certainly done a job for me that's for sure
Nice to see you are still firing on all cylinders .......I follow your posts from time to time.
Thanks for Brcm by the way - I rode it a while but was like a bucking bronco.......
Cheers
Hook Shot

 

[gugaplex]

Sold Short IAAC Today @ $36.21

Guess this would be a "cold sell". Today I sold short International Assets Holding Corp (IAAC) because the stock is extremely over-valued, and over-bought (taking a look at the 3-year chart for the stock). IAAC trades at roughly 8 x's Book Value. I normally do not sell stocks short, but this seems like a relatively safe bet. If the stock reaches $40, I will cover my shares and take a 10% loss. I expect the stock to trade down to $30 before it reaches $40, but I could be wrong (I feel the odds are in my favor).

Good Luck...

 

[gugaplex]

Today I purchased Gladstone Investment Corporation (GAIN) at $14.87. The company is a small private equity firm that went public a couple years ago. This stock caught my eye for several reasons. The biggest motivator for buying GAIN is the stock's LOW Price/Book ratio of 1.07. GAIN also has a PEG ratio of only 1.09. Another great feature of this stock is that it pays a 5.7% annual dividend, but they pay it monthly versus quarterly. With the stock's low float and average daily volume, I estimate GAIN will double in a couple years (with a dividend on top of that).

My portfolio now consists of the following:
BRCM = 15%
NADX = 15%
GLW = 12%
TRI = 12%
PWAV = 9%
GAIN = 8%
TOA = 8%
IMH = 8%
ABIX = 7%
LAKE = 6%

*Also short IAAC at $36.21.

Good Luck...

 

[gugaplex]

Sold Abatix (ABIX) Today @ $6.81

I decided to cash out of ABIX today because the stock gained 18% rather quickly from my purchase at $5.79 a couple weeks ago. I will continue to monitor ABIX to see if it once again trades at a great discount. The stock is still cheap, but I've learned to lock in decent gains if they are made in a few weeks or less.

Good Luck...

 

[gugaplex]

Covered IAAC Today @ $40

I covered my short-sale of IAAC at $40 for a 10% loss. The stock continued to climb after I sold it short at $36.21, and meet my cover target of $40. I will never short another stock again, as my results doing so have been poor in the past. Buying put options on certain stocks may be an alternative in the future, but naked shorts are too risky as I have learned the hard way.

 

[gugaplex]

I purchased shares of New Century Financial today at $34.68 because of several reasons. The most compelling factor was the stock's low valuations. NEW has a Price/Book ratio of 0.96 and a PEG ratio of 1.01. Because the stock is classified as a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust), it pays a hefty dividend. NEW must pay 90% of earnings in dividends to continue receiving the tax benefits of a REIT. Analysts expect NEW to earn a little over $4/share next year, thereby paying dividends of roughly $3.60/share. This provides a dividend yield of more than 10%.

I strongly believe there will be a soft-landing in real estate, and the housing boom will continue in the latter half of 2007. This means that investors should get in these stocks soon, as they will move 6-8 months before the picture brightens.

Good Luck...

 

[gugaplex]

I purchased IsoTis (ISTSF) today at $1.15 because of several reasons. The main reason is the market they are in. The company makes Orthobiologic products that are being used by large orthopedic device makers. The market is roughly $1 billion today and is expected to double in 4 years. The orthopedic industry will likely move down this path to provide patients with more natural solutions for joint replacement, etc. The company has a small sales force, which is one reason their product has not been more widely used. One of the larger orthopedic companies may find IsoTis as an attractive take-over candidate in order to add this new technology to their product portfolios. The large sales forces of these ortho companies will help to increase sales of IsoTis products.

For the long-term, as Baby-Boomers age they will increasingly need orthopedic procedures done. With IsoTis being in a high-growth medical field, the stock should enjoy nice growth and stability.

I know you are skeptical about buying a stock that trades on the pink sheets, as am I. This is why I am only buying a small amount (about 3% of total holdings). The company is making substantial strides to get listed on the NASDAQ, and may reach their goal by the end of the first quarter in 2007.

 

[gugaplex]

IsoTis (ISOT) achieves NASDAQ Listing

I purchased IsoTis (ISOT) about a month ago at $1.15 (ticker was ISTSF then). The company was based in Switzerland at the time, but has become a U.S. corporation and started trading on the NASDAQ Exchange on Friday 1/26. The company offered 1 ISOT share for every 10 ISTSF shares (but the share price was multipled by a factor of 10. Therefore, my new cost basis for the shares of ISOT is $11.50.

I believe that this company will take off based on the coming demand for their innovative product (bone filler used in orthopedic surgeries). Their products consist of real human bone that rapidly spurs the growth of the patient's bone mass at the site of the surgery. With Baby-Boomers increasingly needing these operations (especially over the next couple decades), this could be a HUGE market whereby IsoTis can grow rapidly along with.

 

[gugaplex]

Betting the LAKE on ISOT...

I sold my holdings in Lakeland Industries (LAKE) today at $14.85. I purchased the shares six months ago at $13.40 (split-adjusted), yielding an 11% gain (22% annualized). With about half of the proceeds I purchased more shares in IsoTis Orthobiologics (ISOT). I made this move because of two reasons. The main factor is my belief that ISOT will experience far greater growth in the coming years than will LAKE. Secondly, with 11 different stocks in my portfolio I felt the need to trim back the amount of securities that I must spend time on researching, etc. (before my wife gets angry with me).

Good Luck to All...

 

[gugaplex]

Sold Triad (TRI) Today @ $49.25

Today I sold my shares in Triad Hospitals (TRI) because the company received a bid to go private for $50.25 per share. I figured that $49.25 was close enough, and sold my holdings so I could move onto something else. The stock returned over 26% for me during the 3.5 months I held it. One of the main reasons for purchasing TRI was due to the buy-out rumours that were circulating.

 

[gugaplex]

Bought Abatix (ABIX) Today @ $6.73

I decided to purchase Abatix (ABIX) today because of several reasons. The main reason was due to the fact that the stock trades at 0.96 x's Book Value, making it pretty darn cheap. Another reason I like ABIX is because the stock offers diversification, and a hedge against natural disasters (especially hurricanes). With the stock trading below Book Value, even if we have another weak hurricane season in 2007 (hopefully) ABIX should perform well. I also like the fact that the stock has a very low-float (869,000 shares). With any small amount of good news for the company, the stock should soar.
My Current Holdings:
BRCM 15%
NADX 15%
GLW 13%
GAIN 9%
TOA 9%
PWAV 9%
IMH 8%
ABIX 8%
ISOT 7%
NEW 7%
Good Luck to ALL...

 

[gugaplex]

Added More NEW to My Portfolio @ $27 Even

New Century Financial (NEW) warned after the bell that they will report a loss for the 4th Quarter. The stock fell from $30 to $27, where I added to my holdings. I expect the company to continue to struggle this year, with the recent news likely to be the worst. A good long-term strategy for big returns is to buy when the storm clouds are the darkest. Think if you had done so in October of 2002 when most tech stocks were reporting losses and had share prices that were a quarter of what they are today. This seems to be the same situation the home-builders and mortgage lenders are going through. The home-builders have recently bottomed, and I expect the same to happen soon for mortgage lenders. NEW will likely get hammered tomorrow, probably 15-20%. Shakey hands will throw in the towel like many did with TOA at $7 a few months ago. It will be gut-wrenching to watch, but should pay-off huge over the next couple years.

 

[pssonice]

we r awaiting your disaster recovery on NEW !

gugaplex : "New Century Financial (NEW) warned after the bell that they will report a loss for the 4th Quarter. The stock fell from $30 to $27, where I added to my holdings. I expect the company to continue to struggle this year, with the recent news likely to be the worst. A good long-term strategy for big returns is to buy when the storm clouds are the darkest. Think if you had done so in October of 2002 when most tech stocks were reporting losses and had share prices that were a quarter of what they are today. This seems to be the same situation the home-builders and mortgage lenders are going through. The home-builders have recently bottomed, and I expect the same to happen soon for mortgage lenders. NEW will likely get hammered tomorrow, probably 15-20%. Shakey hands will throw in the towel like many did with TOA at $7 a few months ago. It will be gut-wrenching to watch, but should pay-off huge over the next couple years."

 

[gugaplex]

gugaplex : "New Century Financial (NEW) warned after the bell that they will report a loss for the 4th Quarter. The stock fell from $30 to $27, where I added to my holdings. I expect the company to continue to struggle this year, with the recent news likely to be the worst. A good long-term strategy for big returns is to buy when the storm clouds are the darkest. Think if you had done so in October of 2002 when most tech stocks were reporting losses and had share prices that were a quarter of what they are today. This seems to be the same situation the home-builders and mortgage lenders are going through. The home-builders have recently bottomed, and I expect the same to happen soon for mortgage lenders. NEW will likely get hammered tomorrow, probably 15-20%. Shakey hands will throw in the towel like many did with TOA at $7 a few months ago. It will be gut-wrenching to watch, but should pay-off huge over the next couple years."

Me too! However, I was just as nervous with TOA when it plunged 35% in one day on bankruptcy fears. Luckily I stomached the move (with a few ulcers), and held on tight. TOA is around $10.30 today, and should correct to $10 at the lowest before marching to $12+...

NEW seems to be in the same boat as TOA was, and will likely recover in much the same way. It is hard to watch a stock plummet and not hit the sell button. I truly believe that value investors are licking their chops at these prices and will create a support for the shares at this level.

 

[pssonice]

no1 is interested in your currentholdings. every1 is interested in your picks

the follow up of a stock pick consists of 2 parts :
1.) when to buy
2.) entry, stop and target level in terms of price

your rec. on NEW failed in any case.

Because of this your credibility is ZERO