Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

[Depth Trade]

Where does the UK stand on entering the E.U.?

 

[Martinghoul]

Sold to who! The Chinese?

Nah, to the mkt... Apparently, Goldies was involved on some of those securitizations as well.

 

[Martinghoul]

Can anyone tell me how the EU as a whole gained any benefit out of letting Greece join? I read an article about Sachs helping fudge the numbers to meet entry criteria so I assumed it was poorly drafted legislature but only now am I seeing the power of politics at work.

The benefits are intangible... It's like if you were to ask what the US gained by letting the state of Missouri join. Nothing obvious (in fact, the richer states are still paying for it), but most Americans would say there's value. Moreover, there's evidence that convergence (i.e. poorer states getting wealthier) is real, so there's all sorts of potential future benefits.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Where does the UK stand on entering the E.U.?

We are a part of the EU, just not the monetry union.

The general consensus regarding adopting the Euro currency is 'no ****ing way'. I can only imagined that feeling has intensified given recent events.

What we really need though is to be out of the grasp of the megalomaniac Eurocrats completely.

 

[forker]

Their fingers are in all places... The magnitude of what you are saying certainly burdens eu with a heavy price. I think they should remove themselves from the EU and benefit from the outcome. One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its weight against sterling. Sure the UK banks have their fingers in EU, and sure economies like Germany are supporting the currency. I cant see what other factors are at play.

 

[TheBramble]

Moreover, there's evidence that convergence (i.e. poorer states getting wealthier) is real, so there's all sorts of potential future benefits.

Of course, convergence could also be achieved by going in the other direction too.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Their fingers are in all places... The magnitude of what you are saying certainly burdens eu with a heavy price. I think they should remove themselves from the EU and benefit from the outcome. One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its weight against sterling. Sure the UK banks have their fingers in EU, and sure economies like Germany are supporting the currency. I cant see what other factors are at play.

Interest rates? The ECB is open to further rate rises, whereas Merv and the other numpties still have their heads in the sand.

 

[counter_violent]

Interest rates? The ECB is open to further rate rises, whereas Merv and the other numpties still have their heads in the sand.


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Aye but Eur zone countries 1 interest rate for all and some economies absolutely will not benefit from rate rises. May even be the reason why they will default and leave. At least UK retains some control ....even if we are fkt

 

[forker]

I'm not so sure I would be appreciating the euro due to interest rates alone. There are other currencies that have far more appeal.

 

[TheBramble]

As a corollary to the above, I can’t help feeling a little bemused at the concept of increasing wealth in poorer nation states by giving them money with the intent they buy stuff from the existing manufacturing base of the (relatively wealthy) producer states, when they quite sensibly decide to use their free (cheap is more politically correct, but free is more realistic in inflationary and risk terms) money to enhance their own infrastructure and manufacturing capacity in order to offer significant competition to the same groups they were ‘supposed’ to be buying from.

 

[Depth Trade]

As a corollary to the above, I can’t help feeling a little bemused at the concept of increasing wealth in poorer nation states by giving them money with the intent they buy stuff from the existing manufacturing base of the (relatively wealthy) producer states, when they quite sensibly decide to use their free (cheap is more politically correct, but free is more realistic in inflationary and risk terms) money to enhance their own infrastructure and manufacturing capacity in order to offer significant competition to the same groups they were ‘supposed’ to be buying from.

How could they be expected to buy, when they're broke in the first place, where is the logic here?

 

[TheBramble]

How could they be expected to buy, when they're broke in the first place, where is the logic here?

That was the point. Give them money. Now they can buy. Sorry, not talking specifically about Greece. Was responding to Martinghoul's wider comments on EU membership selection criteria and longer term socio-politico-financial intent.

 

[Pazienza]

One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its weight against sterling.

Well everything's relative, right? The euro is a piece-a-crap, but then again, so is Sterling. You know the scary Greek numbers (deficit etc)? Check them against ours, there's not that much difference.

So I put it down to Sterling being garbage rather than the euro being good.

 

[TheBramble]

Hey man, long time. How ya' been....:cheesy:

 

[Martinghoul]

Of course, convergence could also be achieved by going in the other direction too.

As to convergence, you're correct, without a doubt. Convergence is achieved by making richer states poorer and poorer states richer. Again, it's really all about whether you believe the intangible benefits are worth it. For both the convergence argument and for the fringe benefits, I am pretty sure that the one precedent we have, i.e. the US, suggests that it's all worth it in the end. In fact, if you look at American history, it's amazing how many parallels you find. For example, the states did face a very similar situation that the EU is facing now and, funnily enough, as one of the results of the bargain reached the capital of the US is Washington, rather than New York.

As a corollary to the above, I can’t help feeling a little bemused at the concept of increasing wealth in poorer nation states by giving them money with the intent they buy stuff from the existing manufacturing base of the (relatively wealthy) producer states, when they quite sensibly decide to use their free (cheap is more politically correct, but free is more realistic in inflationary and risk terms) money to enhance their own infrastructure and manufacturing capacity in order to offer significant competition to the same groups they were ‘supposed’ to be buying from.

Well, that would actually be OK, because, as long as you're in the same boat and everyone plays by the rules, there's hope that there's enough pie for everyone to get a slice. It's the whole idea that trade, in general, is good for everyone in the long run and the more of it and the freer it is the better. To be sure, in all this, Greece is a special case, 'cause, quite clearly, they didn't do any of what you describe above.

 

[Martinghoul]

One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its weight against sterling.

It's just the carry munkies are running the show at the moment. Also, the Chinese have been buying EUR day in, day out, throughout all this.

 

[Pazienza]

Hey man, long time. How ya' been....:cheesy:

I am rollin', nearly 25% over the last three weeks alone since I got back from my jollies, and that's discounting the effects of compounding...still, it's only been a few months full time.

Like I said, the urge to over-trade is rising. I took a couple of lucky escapes, really only saved by the fact that I was right on the overall direction.

There might be a lesson in that somewhere...

 

[TheBramble]

They've been buying the dips at around $1 Billion per session.

 

[DashRiprock]

rite, sometimes when I read what people who know their onions say about the world economy, political international relations and stuffs, they say about some old history thing in there argument.

Like that Wiemar book. Or what Martingoul did just then about the US. I'm sure there are lots of other examples all of which escape me. Hugh Hendry does it alot but the only reason I know about him is because he's got a bloody great big gob.

so, like, if you are a hedge fund manager, do you just read history books?

 

[forker]

It's just the carry munkies are running the show at the moment. Also, the Chinese have been buying EUR day in, day out, throughout all this.

Thats an angle I didn't think about. Its easy to forget about those mountains of money who's owners haven't got debt in their headlines.