Reminder:
My SHORT continues without any change. Now I will be adding to SHORT yet again on the 3rd trendline break if/when it does indeed break.
Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now
Reminder:
My SHORT continues without any change. Now I will be adding to SHORT yet again on the 3rd trendline break if/when it does indeed break.
Dow approaching MAJOR resistance area on DAILY - the 78.6% Fibo grid (May 2011 to October 2011).
View the same 78.6% grid level now on the same 30-min. shown so often here ... note also how the smaller grey grid extrapolates into a 161.8% hit and now a likely (??) 261.8% hit.
View the same 78.6% grid level now on the same 30-min. shown so often here ... note also how the smaller grey grid extrapolates into a 161.8% hit and now a likely (??) 261.8% hit.
Attachments
See previous chart in post #40 - the Ending Diagonal Triangle can be a contracting triangle or an expanding one, the latter shown below as now a probable pattern - but remember, only probable.
Add to SHORT when lower trendline is taken out. Once below the 200 m.a. (green) the SHORT will accelerate.
Theme: Accumulation to the Shortside continues unabated
Attachments
Everything thus far, as-is, NO change in anything and NO change in stance.
The SHORT CALL for GREAT DEPRESSION 2 is now at DEFCON 4.
The configuration on DAILY for Dow Jones is still the SAME as stated earlier in the thread and is reproduced here to refresh memories
OR, if I'm wrong, to set aside money for my coffin and burial for I will surely lose a lot of money if wrong.
And a further reminder:
I am banking on the fact that Wave 3 (circled) begins as shown in my chart. This is precisely why I placed this BET. There is NO other reason to have placed my money at risk. None other.
Now I wait for Hell or Paradise.
This is exactly how I feel every time I ask a CLOSING QUESTION in real life - like so ....
Alec Baldwin - Best performance - YouTube
The SHORT CALL for GREAT DEPRESSION 2 is now at DEFCON 4.
The configuration on DAILY for Dow Jones is still the SAME as stated earlier in the thread and is reproduced here to refresh memories
OR, if I'm wrong, to set aside money for my coffin and burial for I will surely lose a lot of money if wrong.
And a further reminder:
I am banking on the fact that Wave 3 (circled) begins as shown in my chart. This is precisely why I placed this BET. There is NO other reason to have placed my money at risk. None other.
Now I wait for Hell or Paradise.
This is exactly how I feel every time I ask a CLOSING QUESTION in real life - like so ....
Alec Baldwin - Best performance - YouTube
Attachments
N Rothschild
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well good luck to you. but i wouldn't be in this trade if you could lose alot. i have no idea if the markets will head higher from here. but..there is an orgy of buy stops above (and i mean a **** load) and no stops go untouched...start hedging your pos.
China Diapers
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I reckon a stock market rally may be on the cards, lots of consolidation patterns in individual stocks going on atm.
But don't listen to me I now nothing, literally, I just makes calls for a laugh.
But don't listen to me I now nothing, literally, I just makes calls for a laugh.
Thanks for your concern, Sir.
It is worse than you have outlined because I am also in unrealized losses on UsdJpy. But my gains in EurUsd are keeping me and will keep me in the green overall assuming I exit my stock market shorties if/when the May 2011 top is exceeded (mental STOP) and exit UsdJpy if/when the STOP there is taken out.
To just breakeven is NOT commensurate with the effort and dedication - but the dedication combined with "stay in the game to win another day" puts the odds in my favor for long-term success.
Markets open in a few minutes, Futures point up, in line with chart depiction.
No change in THREAD CALL
Attachments
DEFCON 4 still in effect - when the wave b low shown in chart in post 51 breaks, the 30-min. uptrend has reversed - that ought to do it. The lower trendline break is also a good short point but I would wait for the wave b low to break convincingly.
NO CHANGE IN STANCE - I remain SHORT, everything as-is.
NO CHANGE IN STANCE - I remain SHORT, everything as-is.
A powerful indicator that I use is not a conventional one - instead it is based on YIELDS.
Moodys BAA corporate bond yield minus 30-yr T-Bond yield
OR
for often supremely faster result I compute the ratio of the yields.
For those who are interested, have a look at this instrument when plotted in Metastock or the software of your choice.
The Dow (daily) is clearly in a sideways pattern but the ratio of Yields is in a magnificent, clear breakout uptrend.
This ratio has been quite reliable. If the current uptrend breakout in this ratio is to be taken seriously it presages a stupendous CRASH in Jones.
I wait and see - with humility of course.
Moodys BAA corporate bond yield minus 30-yr T-Bond yield
OR
for often supremely faster result I compute the ratio of the yields.
For those who are interested, have a look at this instrument when plotted in Metastock or the software of your choice.
The Dow (daily) is clearly in a sideways pattern but the ratio of Yields is in a magnificent, clear breakout uptrend.
This ratio has been quite reliable. If the current uptrend breakout in this ratio is to be taken seriously it presages a stupendous CRASH in Jones.
I wait and see - with humility of course.
I believe that we are indeed at a beautiful moment .....
The Dow is at the 78.6% retracement of the drop from the May 2011 top. Most folk feel that the top will be taken out as the evidence of persistent bullishness is so prevalent that it can only mean one thing, namely a continued bullmarket.
Me? I see the monthly pattern of the Dow and the giant Head and Shoulder topping pattern with the decreasing volume on the right shoulder plus the fact that this is indeed a topping pattern and that such patterns show up spectacularly in well developed trends - also I see some sort of 5-wave move since the Great Depression 1 low. A major turn is at hand is my conclusion.
And now, here's another point .... Gold was the last, stubborn holdout that kept insisting on going north and challenging the Deflation argument. But since the drop from near 2k Gold has busted the uptrendline and its 200 day m.a. and has now climbed above the trendline and attempting a kiss of the 200 day m.a.
If Goldie charges south from here it will be the classic kiss and retreat that will confirm the aborning downtrend in spades.
There will then be nobody left to challenge my buddy the US Dollar. I remember the months and months when he was in a dungeon so depressed and undeserving of his reserve currency status (or so it seemed) that even lowly currencies were flogging him left and right - it seemed like I was his only friend.
But what almost everyone seemed to ignore is that you can't knock out a real champion so easily. They were laughing at him.
But boy has he woken up. I can only hope that he will deliver the goods. I've bet on him heavily. And if he can turn around the Yen, then he will fire on even auxiliary cylinders and the blast northbound will be sheer music.
That's why its a beautiful moment for me, painful yes but worth the suspense.
The Dow is at the 78.6% retracement of the drop from the May 2011 top. Most folk feel that the top will be taken out as the evidence of persistent bullishness is so prevalent that it can only mean one thing, namely a continued bullmarket.
Me? I see the monthly pattern of the Dow and the giant Head and Shoulder topping pattern with the decreasing volume on the right shoulder plus the fact that this is indeed a topping pattern and that such patterns show up spectacularly in well developed trends - also I see some sort of 5-wave move since the Great Depression 1 low. A major turn is at hand is my conclusion.
And now, here's another point .... Gold was the last, stubborn holdout that kept insisting on going north and challenging the Deflation argument. But since the drop from near 2k Gold has busted the uptrendline and its 200 day m.a. and has now climbed above the trendline and attempting a kiss of the 200 day m.a.
If Goldie charges south from here it will be the classic kiss and retreat that will confirm the aborning downtrend in spades.
There will then be nobody left to challenge my buddy the US Dollar. I remember the months and months when he was in a dungeon so depressed and undeserving of his reserve currency status (or so it seemed) that even lowly currencies were flogging him left and right - it seemed like I was his only friend.
But what almost everyone seemed to ignore is that you can't knock out a real champion so easily. They were laughing at him.
But boy has he woken up. I can only hope that he will deliver the goods. I've bet on him heavily. And if he can turn around the Yen, then he will fire on even auxiliary cylinders and the blast northbound will be sheer music.
That's why its a beautiful moment for me, painful yes but worth the suspense.
YouAreNotFree
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safvan
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I appreciate your resolve on this trade. I do not particularly trade like you do. My attention span is a few days worth.
I must say the real essence is the belief of your beliefs. Kudos to you for that. Hope your long term trade works out and even if it does not who cares as long as you have your risk sorted. Good luck.
I must say the real essence is the belief of your beliefs. Kudos to you for that. Hope your long term trade works out and even if it does not who cares as long as you have your risk sorted. Good luck.
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Well said and indeed accurate about my beliefs.
I don't believe anybody here trades like me - additionally, if wrong I don't believe anybody here loses like me.
I believe most trade on the 1-min, 3-min, 5-min. timeframes, some on 15-min., - I find that very hard to do because I lose perspective of the larger move.
Let's see how all this works out - the verdict ought to be in very soon.
