Ampro: thanks for the reading material. Glad that I took speed read courses. Most nights reading these things beats counting sheep.
Ampro: thanks for the reading material. Glad that I took speed read courses. Most nights reading these things beats counting sheep.
Ampro: thanks for a very informative post (#19).
I gave up on trying to pick tops/bottoms earlier on in my venture and have the scars to prove it.
The E/Y advice is excellent, as well as the watching stocks.
Read this evening about Fed Reserve increasing its holdings of US treasuries for foreign banks due to deleveraging and global economic deterioration (he suggests the USD could still rise for months)
I gave up on trying to pick tops/bottoms earlier on in my venture and have the scars to prove it.
The E/Y advice is excellent, as well as the watching stocks.
Read this evening about Fed Reserve increasing its holdings of US treasuries for foreign banks due to deleveraging and global economic deterioration (he suggests the USD could still rise for months)
The toughest (tedious) bits are right at when you 1st begin trudging thru this stuff. Once you get your bearings & spot familiar/similar themes you start to wrap a little meat around the price structure bones.
The serious players have strong (long) memories. The driver(s) which held center stage back when all this hulabaloo was brewing in the background haven't disappeared completely, merely been pushed aside whilst they dance to this particular tune.
When the flames begin turning to embers, the previous flavors (int rates/growth/yields/blah blah) will zoom back into focus real quick.
Snapshots of the gig can be skimmed over during the business day via:
Currencies, Currency Converter | Reuters.com
Bloomberg.com: Currencies
They update several times during key handover shifts. It's watered down etc, but they offer a general flavor of events.
Like I said, you also got the various squawks & newswire facilities which churn out an endless stream of junk food to the masses if you're so inclined.
A veritable feast of goodies for all diets huh?
The toughest (tedious) bits are right at when you 1st begin trudging thru this stuff. Once you get your bearings & spot familiar/similar themes you start to wrap a little meat around the price structure bones.
The serious players have strong (long) memories.{QUOTE]
Right again Ampro! "Trudging" is so appropriate for what I have experienced to date in my "fundamental" trek. Being a "newbie" to FA, I find there is so much data that I do not understand ......YET. With TA, there are books , graphs and charts that one is able to study, and apply ( a recipe book, if you will). At present, my thought is that FA is more conceptual and I should understand the various concepts, that in theory, should make it easier to"spot familiar...themes".
I intend to keep plugging at her.
Does COT data factor into your trading decisions?
The BNP Baribas has been extremely useful. Gave me a good view into the future. Have not completely digested it, but some important insights as to what I lack in my trading decisions.
( am I going over to the "dark side")?
Today was an excellent example of why I desire more Fundamental knowledge - open @144.77 to close @ 157.95. I should like to have some forewarning of these significant, account depleting moves.The Central Bank moves, in my opinion, nullify any TA. My thought is that FA can give a warning that such a move might be imminent.
( am I going over to the "dark side")?
Today was an excellent example of why I desire more Fundamental knowledge - open @144.77 to close @ 157.95. I should like to have some forewarning of these significant, account depleting moves.The Central Bank moves, in my opinion, nullify any TA. My thought is that FA can give a warning that such a move might be imminent.
At the end of the day when you strip them naked, you're actually trading or positioning yourself on the back of folks interpretations (psychology) of the technical & fundamental information streams.
Value (levels/zones of interaction) to one group of players means jack sh*t to another.
I realize this might sound bizarre, but sometimes "thinking too hard" is actually counter-productive.
We all know there are tiered or priority influences playing out most every (week) day. There are also groups of participants positioning themselves according to their own aims, expectations, funding limits, blah blah...
Your (& my) job is to set your stall out based around your place in that order of play. The more (varied) information you got, maybe? the easier it might be to play your hand according to the present conditions & the near-term/farther out influences?
It's a game of value v/s risk
COT?
I'm aware of it & where it's at (taking the commercials out of the equation), but I don't base any kind of decisions on it.
Events can unfold & blow around like a hurricane on the spin of a coin, as we're witnessing this week (again)...by the time that info rolls around everything can be upside down & inside out
Too true! I would sometimes find myself looking at reams of indicators on different TFs
and end up up not knowing in which direction to trade. I have been pleasantly surprised with some of the FA reading material that you have provided. I seem to get a more firm idea of where the future moves may go ( I have narrowed them down to 3 - up/down/sideways)
In the short span of this thread, you generous sharing of your knowledge has assisted me in viewing the G/Y in a different and less emotional ( read: anxious) way. This fact was evident in that I wasn't glued to the trade platform when the FOMC decision was made available today. Some of the info gleamed yesterday and the day prior, made me realize that the rate was already fait accompli, Well, back to the classroom.Thank you.
You're welcome.
Glad it's assisting in some small way.
Rome wasn't built in a day & all that, & as you appreciate it'll still require work & discipline to wrap it into a positive format alongside whatever else you utilize.
The upside to it, & where it trumps an exclusive 'technical' outlook, is when you begin to stretch your muscles & begin to put your money to work via a more positional play structure.
If you're up to speed with the agenda (flows & priority drivers) out there it offers you a little more confidence & helps explain some of the technical jostling unfolding as prices vibrate the key levels where players are adjusting & loading up/paring off.
Major benefit is you tend not to get muscled out of trades so easily if your technical & fundamental templates are in tune.
Sure, your positions will still get washed out & you'll take a little heat as before - nothing insulates you from the market motion - but at least you're working your ticket from a position of strength rather than relying solely on some vague trendline break, fibonacci bounce or moving average kiss.
Good luck & good trading to you!
Glad it's assisting in some small way.
Rome wasn't built in a day & all that, & as you appreciate it'll still require work & discipline to wrap it into a positive format alongside whatever else you utilize.
The upside to it, & where it trumps an exclusive 'technical' outlook, is when you begin to stretch your muscles & begin to put your money to work via a more positional play structure.
If you're up to speed with the agenda (flows & priority drivers) out there it offers you a little more confidence & helps explain some of the technical jostling unfolding as prices vibrate the key levels where players are adjusting & loading up/paring off.
Major benefit is you tend not to get muscled out of trades so easily if your technical & fundamental templates are in tune.
Sure, your positions will still get washed out & you'll take a little heat as before - nothing insulates you from the market motion - but at least you're working your ticket from a position of strength rather than relying solely on some vague trendline break, fibonacci bounce or moving average kiss.
Good luck & good trading to you!
Have spend several hours reading and re-reading the material from the sites provided and a few lights are beginning to turn on. The info provided has also enabled further clarification of the various posts ( esp. #19 and #7). Looking at the Monthly and Weekly charts on the G/Y, I have a better feel as to "how" it did occur, not a "WTF?".
The charts make more sense to me and I have a little more confidence in the decision-making process.( e.g. the W and M both had $ well below the lower Bollinger Band so it should have corrected{according to TA} but it did not.Then, the news of deleveraging,liquidity,etc. and $ eventually went where TA said it should go).
Rather than try to jump on the train as it speeds by; I shall wait at the next station (as I know that it will come to me) and get aboard there.
The charts make more sense to me and I have a little more confidence in the decision-making process.( e.g. the W and M both had $ well below the lower Bollinger Band so it should have corrected{according to TA} but it did not.Then, the news of deleveraging,liquidity,etc. and $ eventually went where TA said it should go).
Rather than try to jump on the train as it speeds by; I shall wait at the next station (as I know that it will come to me) and get aboard there.
AMPRO and WASP
Since reading the suggested sites and others, FA has added appreciably to my trading decisions. Less anxiety and second guessing before commiting to a trade.NO being stopped out of a trade ( due to a loosening of stops) , patience; as I now am more assured as to where $ is eventually, going. Fewer trades, and so far 100% winning trades when I close them ( or limit is hit).
With the reading, I have a better perspective of what the big players are doing. It certainly is nice to have suggestions of possible central bank interventions.
May I impose once again?
Any possible directions that I may look for "flow" information? A "Jimmy Choo pointee boot" would be much appreciated
All of the above was "spot on"!You're welcome.
Glad it's assisting in some small way.
Rome wasn't built in a day & all that, & as you appreciate it'll still require work & discipline to wrap it into a positive format alongside whatever else you utilize.
The upside to it, & where it trumps an exclusive 'technical' outlook, is when you begin to stretch your muscles & begin to put your money to work via a more positional play structure.
If you're up to speed with the agenda (flows & priority drivers) out there it offers you a little more confidence & helps explain some of the technical jostling unfolding as prices vibrate the key levels where players are adjusting & loading up/paring off.
Major benefit is you tend not to get muscled out of trades so easily if your technical & fundamental templates are in tune.
Sure, your positions will still get washed out & you'll take a little heat as before - nothing insulates you from the market motion - but at least you're working your ticket from a position of strength rather than relying solely on some vague trendline break, fibonacci bounce or moving average kiss.
Good luck & good trading to you!
Since reading the suggested sites and others, FA has added appreciably to my trading decisions. Less anxiety and second guessing before commiting to a trade.NO being stopped out of a trade ( due to a loosening of stops) , patience; as I now am more assured as to where $ is eventually, going. Fewer trades, and so far 100% winning trades when I close them ( or limit is hit).
With the reading, I have a better perspective of what the big players are doing. It certainly is nice to have suggestions of possible central bank interventions.
May I impose once again?
Any possible directions that I may look for "flow" information? A "Jimmy Choo pointee boot" would be much appreciated
Unfortunately there are a couple avenues I can’t let you in on, but to be honest most of the time they’re utilized merely as a confirmatory nod.
You can key into the dominant flows via the price bars in the most part, as long as you ignore the intraday vibrations & focus primarily on the Daily/Weekly prints only.
The sharp reactive micro (intraday) activity is often heavily biased thru rumor & conjecture from various sources and/or the knee jerk trade which re-calibrates expectation/consensus to actual data prints up & down the ladder.
It’s not until everything shakes out into the daily close & all the relevant pieces of the jigsaw are put together (equities, commods, micro eco data, order positioning etc) that the full picture becomes clearer.
But then, how one decides to play all the specific information they collate will be entirely influenced by the current conditions & their strategy model(s).
However, it's not difficult to see from your (daily) technical charts that current conditions (& flows) are ratcheting to & fro in 2 way range play. Risk is being constantly bounced on the intraday flavors & will continue to ping-pong into years end as liquidity dissipates by the day.
Certainly no change to the mid-term value plays re; $US & Yen long positioning in Q4 as both sets of instruments continue to benefit from buy’s on dips.
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AMPRO, thank you once again. I appreciate the time and effort that you have taken to respond to my queries. The quality of your responses have been amazing.
I read and re-read the posts by you and WASP. Each time,there is a further nugget of information ( a different perspective) to assist my understanding of "what I am doing" and "why did I do that?"
Your "knee jerk trade"; "expectation/consensus to ACTUAL data prints" words now JUMP OUT AT ME. I hope that others who may view this thread gain a better perspective on FX trading.
The last sentence of your post certainly. validated my suppositions and aided in reducing my unease.
My thanks.
I read and re-read the posts by you and WASP. Each time,there is a further nugget of information ( a different perspective) to assist my understanding of "what I am doing" and "why did I do that?"
Your "knee jerk trade"; "expectation/consensus to ACTUAL data prints" words now JUMP OUT AT ME. I hope that others who may view this thread gain a better perspective on FX trading.
The last sentence of your post certainly. validated my suppositions and aided in reducing my unease.
My thanks.
technical slant
I see your favorite pair is sniffing a long range s&r zone up here again this week. This area is well touted by assorted timeframe players, & should continue to attract heat if they can begin to build any kind of sturdy (support) floor at the 139.0
It’s definitely going to need to muscle & consolidate this upper channel (148.20-151.0) to establish the floor, & any technical pullback will also require to hang onto that rectangular zone earmarked on the hourly.
Quite a decent upper-lower springboard to play with I guess if you get appropriate intra-week signals from your strategy to work off.
I see your favorite pair is sniffing a long range s&r zone up here again this week. This area is well touted by assorted timeframe players, & should continue to attract heat if they can begin to build any kind of sturdy (support) floor at the 139.0
It’s definitely going to need to muscle & consolidate this upper channel (148.20-151.0) to establish the floor, & any technical pullback will also require to hang onto that rectangular zone earmarked on the hourly.
Quite a decent upper-lower springboard to play with I guess if you get appropriate intra-week signals from your strategy to work off.
Hawkmoon
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technicians have also got it tagged via the trendline & previous major swing barrier fib zones bracketing that dual upper resistance zone Anna.
But she won't soil her technical sheets by having all that dirty stuff on them cru8
Thanks AMPRO and HAWKMOON
Indeed, the 148-151 looks like an interesting area for bull/bear interaction.
I believe the Mizuho site suggested a Nov month close greater than 150 for hope of a upswing. If, less. then was suggested that 139 could be successfully retested.
Indeed, the 148-151 looks like an interesting area for bull/bear interaction.
I believe the Mizuho site suggested a Nov month close greater than 150 for hope of a upswing. If, less. then was suggested that 139 could be successfully retested.
Low-yielding currencies
Hi GUYs,
I am still demo trading fx and currently would consider myself at best a BE trader. I trade mainly technically but keep an eye on the fundamentals. However one thing which I am finding a bit confusing is the often and recently reported phenomenon of 'investors are fleeing to the safe-haven of lowyielding currencies such as the yen'. Don't reaaly know why investors would go for a low yielding currency - is this because the yen is some sort of safehaven? Surely it can go up and down, so why would it be a safehaven?
Any advice\comment on this would be warmly welcomed as it has me stumped!
berti
Hi GUYs,
I am still demo trading fx and currently would consider myself at best a BE trader. I trade mainly technically but keep an eye on the fundamentals. However one thing which I am finding a bit confusing is the often and recently reported phenomenon of 'investors are fleeing to the safe-haven of lowyielding currencies such as the yen'. Don't reaaly know why investors would go for a low yielding currency - is this because the yen is some sort of safehaven? Surely it can go up and down, so why would it be a safehaven?
Any advice\comment on this would be warmly welcomed as it has me stumped!
berti
Hawkmoon
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The dollar & Yen are benefiting from fund repatriation as investors & real money players bring home funds which they’ve placed abroad in recent times.
Traders have been questioning the ability of European/UK capacity to get back on an even footing ahead of the US & Asia, hence the movement of bets biased toward Dollar & Yen.
Until or unless things change then they’ll continue to profit as long as the financial crisis remains high on the agenda.
Risk aversion is still playing a major card out there which helps explain why Yen cross pairs are getting pared along with equity fall out.
When you consider the euro-zone has experienced massive outflow during late summer, coupled with increasing amounts of heavy repatriation flows by U.S & Asian investors, it’s not surprising the single currency (& GB in sympathy) have slipped off their pedestals. A lot of that money is simply being hauled back into Asian & US accounts.
Until the intense fear subsides & dilutes, confidence will remain at a low ebb & risk appetite will be subdued. I guess players will eventually refocus on the more traditional economic fundamentals/interest rate drivers etc when the trust & confidence in the markets begins to return.
Until then it’s a case of which countries economy can best ride & balance out the turmoil.
Traders have been questioning the ability of European/UK capacity to get back on an even footing ahead of the US & Asia, hence the movement of bets biased toward Dollar & Yen.
Until or unless things change then they’ll continue to profit as long as the financial crisis remains high on the agenda.
Risk aversion is still playing a major card out there which helps explain why Yen cross pairs are getting pared along with equity fall out.
When you consider the euro-zone has experienced massive outflow during late summer, coupled with increasing amounts of heavy repatriation flows by U.S & Asian investors, it’s not surprising the single currency (& GB in sympathy) have slipped off their pedestals. A lot of that money is simply being hauled back into Asian & US accounts.
Until the intense fear subsides & dilutes, confidence will remain at a low ebb & risk appetite will be subdued. I guess players will eventually refocus on the more traditional economic fundamentals/interest rate drivers etc when the trust & confidence in the markets begins to return.
Until then it’s a case of which countries economy can best ride & balance out the turmoil.
Never mind fella’s, good news is the Chinese will be the saviors of the world :cheesy:
Soon as them old boys get back in the groove pumping their factory output next year & their demand for oil steadily increases, the buck will hit the skids & we can get back to buying the yielders again……
They’re right on our coat-tails regards (oil) consumption & if you believe virtually two-thirds of Euros 20 odd percent decline this year can be attributed to deflating oil prices, then we need the “growth engine” of the world to start rolling their sleeves up & get the job done!
go China………….go 1.48 Euro……….go 85.0 Ozzzzzzieeeeee…………
Soon as them old boys get back in the groove pumping their factory output next year & their demand for oil steadily increases, the buck will hit the skids & we can get back to buying the yielders again……
They’re right on our coat-tails regards (oil) consumption & if you believe virtually two-thirds of Euros 20 odd percent decline this year can be attributed to deflating oil prices, then we need the “growth engine” of the world to start rolling their sleeves up & get the job done!
go China………….go 1.48 Euro……….go 85.0 Ozzzzzzieeeeee…………
Hawkmoon
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highway to hell
$2 an hour sweat-shop jockeys responsible for hustlers buying back their Hamptons & Martha’s Vineyard bolt holes sure conjures up an amusing image.
Personally, I’m of the opinion this whole god damn gig has gone to hell in a hand basket & it’ll take those little critters a whole stack of overtime bills to turn this thing around next year.
But, what do I know.
I’m seriously tempted to cash in my chips & go buy a leafy sheltered beer den in a sleepy Greek backwater. This crap shoot is gonna get several leagues tougher before it evens out.
Anyhow, desist – the thread is veering off track.
$2 an hour sweat-shop jockeys responsible for hustlers buying back their Hamptons & Martha’s Vineyard bolt holes sure conjures up an amusing image.
Personally, I’m of the opinion this whole god damn gig has gone to hell in a hand basket & it’ll take those little critters a whole stack of overtime bills to turn this thing around next year.
But, what do I know.
I’m seriously tempted to cash in my chips & go buy a leafy sheltered beer den in a sleepy Greek backwater. This crap shoot is gonna get several leagues tougher before it evens out.
Anyhow, desist – the thread is veering off track.
