Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

Ruble Declines Amid Ukraine Tension

A deadly clash in eastern Ukraine threw into question the viability of the Geneva accord aimed at easing tensions with Russia.

Genya Savilov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images​

The Russian ruble weakened 0.2% versus the greenback as the USD/RUB rate rose to 35.705:

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The ruble is the second-worst performer this year among 24 developing-country currencies monitored by Bloomberg, with a 7.8% decline against the dollar:

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The 6.3000 is a possible target on further Yuan weakness. A stop can be set below the April 9 low of 6.1851.

This Chinese yuan (USD/CNH) long position from last week is now up over 160 pips as the renminbi presses to fresh 14-month lows with polls showing regional worry.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While the target is still 6.3000, the stop can now be raised to be below the April 13th low of 6.1990.

 

[Jason Rogers]

This Chinese yuan (USD/CNH) long position from last week is now up over 160 pips as the renminbi presses to fresh 14-month lows with polls showing regional worry.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Last week's long USD/CNH (short Chinese Yuan) position from last week is now up over 320 pips as the renminbi continues to make new lows due to key fundamental stresses:

• Unwinding of commodity-backed loans, complex financing vehicles contribute to CNH selling.
• Risks in the shadow present USD/CNH upside potential (Yuan weakness).
• Property market developments are disconcerting in the context of middle class, financial exposure.
• Developments in the inter-bank market, rural banks, NPLs are possible canaries in the coal mine.

Commodity Backed Loans Unwinding

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Gregory Marks commented today in his article on DailyFX.com that "An appreciating Yuan and a one-way bet mentality towards CNY strengthening has created a risky cocktail of overleveraged vehicles of financing.

Property Prices vs. Stimulus Speculation

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"The unwinding could present further upside to the USD/CNH rate if we do see some of these fundamental themes start to pick-up into summer."

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While the target is still 6.3000, the stop can now be raised to be below the April 17th low of 6.2153.

 

[Jason Rogers]

CNH: Chinese Yuan Continues to Tumble

"The unwinding could present further upside to the USD/CNH rate if we do see some of these fundamental themes start to pick-up into summer."

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While the target is still 6.3000, the stop can now be raised to be below the April 17th low of 6.2153.

This Chinese Yuan short trade from last week (long USD/CNH at 6.2193 on April 17th) is now up almost 400 pips and an article today in the Wall Street Journal supports the price target of 6.3000:

"The tumble in China's yuan is showing no signs of letting up, with the currency falling near daily for three straight months as the economy slows, fueling fears that the slide has further to go.

"Analysts and economists expect the yuan to continue sliding, with ING and CIBC forecasting it to touch 6.3 per dollar, which will be its weakest since September 2012 and will mark a close-to-4% tumble in the currency this year, which would be unprecedented." source: Yuan Continues Slide, and It Hasn't Hit Bottom

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While the stop can theoretically be moved to just below the April 22nd low of 6.2338, since it's Friday, it might be best to wait until after the weekend to see how trading opens on Sunday.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Ruble Climbs on Less Severe Sanctions

The Russian ruble is up about 1% today after the announcement of US sanctions that are less severe than was originally feared by Moscow.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The ruble rose (USD/RUB fell) to 35.85 from 36.05 against the US dollar within minutes of the news from the White House.

"The punitive measures impose travel bans and asset freezes on companies and officials and also tighten licensing requirements for certain hi-tech exports to Russia. But they do not impose sanctions on specific sectors of Russia's economy and leave the state-held natural gas giant Gazprom untouched." source: AFP

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A short USD/RUB placed at current levels could target that 34.75 low from April 1st, with a stop above the April 15th high of 36.30.

 

[Jason Rogers]

"The tumble in China's yuan is showing no signs of letting up, with the currency falling near daily for three straight months as the economy slows, fueling fears that the slide has further to go.

"Analysts and economists expect the yuan to continue sliding, with ING and CIBC forecasting it to touch 6.3 per dollar, which will be its weakest since September 2012 and will mark a close-to-4% tumble in the currency this year, which would be unprecedented." source: Yuan Continues Slide, and It Hasn't Hit Bottom

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While the stop can theoretically be moved to just below the April 22nd low of 6.2338, since it's Friday, it might be best to wait until after the weekend to see how trading opens on Sunday.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

This Chinese Yuan short trade from two weeks ago (long USD/CNH at 6.2193 on April 17th) is now up over 400 pips and the stop can be moved to just under the April 23rd low of 6.23485 locking in over 150 pips of profit.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

This Chinese Yuan short trade from two weeks ago (long USD/CNH at 6.2193 on April 17th) is now up over 400 pips and the stop can be moved to just under the April 23rd low of 6.23485 locking in over 150 pips of profit.

Today, the Chinese yuan hit its lowest level against the dollar since late 2012 with USD/CNH briefly trading above 6.27 before testing the rising support line at current levels around 6.2561.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"China says it wants to discourage speculators from assuming the yuan is a one-way bet or in other words is only headed higher given that it has been on a path of steady appreciation since it was de-pegged from the dollar in 1995." source: How long will the US tolerate a weaker yuan?

 

[Jason Rogers]

Russian Central Bank Cuts Spending Used to Defend Ruble

While the Russian Central Bank has continued spending to defend the value of the ruble, "April's currency interventions by the Central Bank are the smallest since October last year.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"The Central Bank threw $2.4 billion into shoring up the ruble in April, 9 times less than the $22.3 billion it spent to support the Russian currency in March." source: Central Bank Spending to Defend Ruble Falls Ninefold in April

That could indicate that the Central Bank believes the ruble has found a bottom, and that USD/RUB might fall from current levels is support of the USD/RUB short trade placed last week.

"The punitive measures impose travel bans and asset freezes on companies and officials and also tighten licensing requirements for certain hi-tech exports to Russia. But they do not impose sanctions on specific sectors of Russia's economy and leave the state-held natural gas giant Gazprom untouched." source: AFP

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A short USD/RUB placed at current levels could target that 34.75 low from April 1st, with a stop above the April 15th high of 36.30.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Strategy Video: Is This a Tradable USDJPY Breakout?

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: ECB’s Hint of June Action Grants Covering Chance for EUR/USD Shorts

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -3.61 as 22% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -5.01; 17% of open positions were long.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 10.7% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 16.3% lower than yesterday and 11.2% below levels seen last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Strategy Video: Will EZ GDP and US CPI Data Feed or Reverse EURUSD Breakdown?

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: Major Shift Points to Euro Weakness versus Yen

Retail traders have remained mostly short the Euro versus the Yen as the EUR/JPY exchange rate trades near important highs.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Yet in the past week we’ve seen long interest jump 34 percent and total longs are now at their highest levels in over two years.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The material swing in sentiment warns of continued losses—particularly as we’ve seen a similar turn in EUR/USD.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

Top Events on Economic Calendar Include GBP, FOMC Minutes

Here's an excerpt from David Maycotte's article on DailyFX.com about key forex events this week:

DailyFX analysts will be covering both events this week in the Live Trading Room.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Yen Risks Following Aussie Into Break

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

[Jason Rogers]

AUD/USD Risks Break of 0.9200 Support on Slowing China Manufacturing

The HSBC’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index is scheduled to come out Thursday, May 22nd at 01:45 GMT.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

A dismal print may pave the way for a larger decline in the AUD/USD as it dampens the outlook for the Australian economy.

A break below 0.9200 could target Fib levels at 0.9155, 0.9060 and 0.8966.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Carry Trading the Russian Ruble

Traders who are short USD/RUB collect rollover interest daily at 5pm New York time. Triple rollover for Wednesday is $3.15 per 10k.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Those looking for a possible entry point to go short can consider the 38.2% retracement level at 35.10.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/JPY - Euro Likely to Fall further versus Yen

Retail forex traders are extremely long the Euro versus the Japanese yen and the EUR/JPY exchange rate is trading near important price support levels.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez in favor of continued Euro losses versus the Yen.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Is a USD/JPY Breakout Signaling a Yen Cross Rally?

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: Traders once Again Selling EUR/USD

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for EUR/USD stands at -1.23 indicating that there are 1.23 retail traders who are short the pair for each one that's long.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Yesterday the ratio was 1.06; 52% of open positions were long. Long positions are 10.7% lower than yesterday and 6.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 17.0% higher than yesterday and 14.0% above levels seen last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, so the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EUR/USD may continue higher. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Strategy Video: How to Trade the ECB Rate Decision