Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

Dollar and Yen May Have Set Major Lows - Key Levels to Watch

Today's Thursday, which means the latest weekly update for the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) was just posted on DailyFX.com

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A major shift in forex sentiment warns that the Dollar and Yen may have set significant lows versus the Euro. These are the critical price levels we’re watching.

Euro Forecast Turns Bearish Below $1.36

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Today’s move below the key $1.3600 level may be the start of a larger decline, and the shift in retail sentiment further warns that we may be at an important turning point.

Japanese Yen Could Accelerate Higher

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

USD trades just above the critical ¥102.00 mark, and a move below could initiate the next leg of important USD/JPY weakness.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Euro Breaks Trendline, These 3 Factors Point to Further EURUSD Losses

Yesterday, I mentioned that the EUR/USD "move below the key $1.3600 level may be the start of a larger decline, and the shift in retail sentiment further warns that we may be at an important turning point."

Euro Breaks to Multi-Month Lows and Trades Below Trendline Support

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Currently, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3500 making a strong case for a larger decline. In the 2-minute video below, DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez list 3 factors pointing to further EUR/USD losses.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Huge Week for Markets Warn of Big Dollar, Yen Moves

In his Weekly Strategy Outlook on DailyFX.com, quantitative strategist David Rodriguez says that traders are bracing "for big market moves on a week with three major central bank meetings and a highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

"Forex volatility prices have jumped, favoring stronger market moves ahead

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

"We see little option but to position ourselves for similarly large FX moves in the days ahead, and our volatility-friendly Breakout2 trading strategy could do well across Japanese Yen and US Dollar currency pairs in particular."

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

You can automate the Breakout2 system on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform. The same login and password you use on Trading Station will allow you to access Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

NZD/USD Rebound to Accelerate on Job Growth, Rate Hike Bets

In this video:

• NZ Employment to Rise 0.6%, Jobless Rate to Slip to 6.0% (Lowest Since 2Q 2009)
• Job Growth has Topped Market Forecast During the Last Three-Straight Quarter

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD/JPY Unable to Hold ISM Gains

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite print for January showed a slight uptick as the print came in at 54.0, beating estimates of 53.7 and the December figure of 53.0.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Notably, the only component to decline MoM was in fact export orders- a possible indication of mounting pressure in global trade as the Baltic Dry Index presses lows not seen since last summer.

USD/JPY February 5, 2014 (5-Minute Chart)

The better than expected ISM figure helped lift the greenback, US Treasury yields and equities, but the move has proved short lived thus far.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Momentum in USD/JPY price action has been slowing over the past half hour and- as has been the case over the past two weeks- Yen weakness continues to be short lived.

The Breakout2 strategy from DailyFX PLUS is currently giving a signal to short USD/JPY at current levels based on readings from our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Breakout2 and other DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals can be automated on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Euro Rallies Post-ECB, but GBP and US Dollar at Risk versus Yen

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Crowd sentiment warns that the Japanese Yen and British Pound have turned versus the Dollar. Yet the Euro holds firm post-ECB. What are we trading?

In this video:

• Retail FX crowd sentiment favors important USDJPY and GBPUSD reversals
• The post-ECB surge warns against betting on further EURUSD weakness
• Despite recent rallies, retail positions favor AUDUSD and Gold price weakness

 

[Jason Rogers]

Another Weak Jobs Report Sends USD/JPY to ¥102, EUR/USD to $1.3600

The January US labor market report was widely anticipated to check the soft December jobs figures, but no such development has occurred.

• January NFPs miss badly: +113K versus +187K expected, from +75K (revised from +74K).
• Two consecutive months of misses >60K.

In the first month after the Federal Reserve decided to wind down its QE3 program – and the first since the second $10B cut to QE3 – there is only hollow evidence that the US economy is able to stand on its own.


USD/JPY 1-minute Chart: January 10, 2014 Intraday

US yields have been hammered the past several weeks (bond prices increasing), and the weak jobs data initially provoked a further flattening of the yield curve (when bonds with longer duration see their yields decrease at a faster rate than the shorter-end of the yield curve).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The drop in the US 10-year Treasury Note yield to 2.630% also dragged USD/JPY from near ¥102.50 ahead of the release to under 101.50.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

However, with the 10YY having rebounded back to as high as 2.675% at the time of this post, the USD/JPY has retraced nearly the entirety of its losses.


Speculative Sentiment Index

However, according to the latest SSI readings from DailyFX PLUS, the ratio of long to short positions in the USD/JPY stands at 1.68 as 63% of traders are long.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Since SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, the fact that the majority of traders are long is giving a signal that USD/JPY may continue lower once more.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Dollar Near Important Levels versus Euro, GBP

Last week's sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls data left the US Dollar noticeably weaker across the board and through key price levels. In the video below, our Senior Technical Strategist highlights why several key USD levels will be critical to watch—particularly versus the Euro and British Pound.

We recently favored high-volatility trading strategies and our proprietary Breakout2 trading system. Yet the broader shift in market expectations pulls focus towards other systems. The trend-following Momentum2 remains attractive more generally with the important exception of some range-bound USD pairs.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

You can automate the Momentum2 and other DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform. The same login and password you use on Trading Station will allow you to access Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Yellen Testimony Shakes "Risk-On" Currencies, Lifts Dollar and Yen

"Economic activity and employment will expand at a moderate pace this year and next, the unemployment rate will continue to decline toward its longer-run sustainable level, and inflation will move back toward 2 percent over coming years."

That's an excerpt from Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony today, her first since taking over from Ben Bernanke as Fed Chair. The prepared remarks may have already brought about some disappointment, shaping the potential for this event to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" occurrence.


US Yields

US yields have been hammered the past several weeks (bond prices increasing), and the weak jobs data initially provoked a further flattening of the yield curve (when bonds with longer duration see their yields decrease at a faster rate than the shorter-end of the yield curve).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

However, the lack of new information in the prepared remarks has helped the US 10-year Treasury Note yield rebound above 2.700%.​

USD/JPY 1-minute Chart: February 11, 2014 Intraday

With the 10YY having eased back near 2.698% at the time this report, was written, the USD/JPY had retraced all of its losses.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The pair rallied up to as high as ¥102.67 after the release, before falling to as low as 102.34.​

EUR/USD 1-minute Chart: February 11, 2014 Intraday

The EUR/USD was generally weaker as the market digested the lack of new stimulus measures outlined. The EUR/USD slipped from near its daily high, falling from as high $1.3678 to as low as 1.3652.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The pair was only modestly lower, trading at around 1.3658 currently.​

Note: Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony will being at 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT. Follow the Real Time News feed on DailyFX.com for up-to-the-minute headlines and analysis.

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: Crowds Buying into EUR/USD Weakness

Currently, none of the DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals has an open position in EUR/USD. That makes sense given the mixed signals from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI):

The ratio of long to short positions in the EUR/USD stands at -2.55 as only 28% of traders are long. On it's own that's a bullish signal for the pair, since SSI is a contrarian indicator.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

However, it's important to note that long positions are 16.5% higher than yesterday, and short positions are 8.7% lower. That indicates traders are buying into EUR/USD weakness and as a result, the crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

If anything, that's a sign that EUR/USD is more likely to decline further in the short term, but could resume it's uptrend after this short term retracement. Traders with a bullish bias might want to wait for signs of support before going long.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Extreme US Dollar Long Positioning Warns of Further Losses

It's Thursday which means the weekly update of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) was posted today on DailyFX.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The strongest bullish signals are for EUR/USD and GBP/USD which means it's no surprise that the SSI-based Momentum2 and Breakout2 strategies are currently giving signals to buy these pairs.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

You can automate both strategies on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform. The same login and password you use on Trading Station will allow you to access Mirror Trader.

 

[tar]

Retail traders are amazing so 89% are short Cable lol ! The Pound didn't even move yet , same with Oanda 80% are short Cable .
Thats how most FX brokers make money , they don't need to hedge at all , and the spread that they earn is an extra edge , they just wait for situations like that when most traders are caught on the wrong side - and it happens alot - and wait for the market to stretch a bit more

 

[Jason Rogers]

Retail traders are amazing so 89% are short Cable lol !

The majority of retail traders like to fade moves rather than trade with the trend. This approach can work well in ranging markets but suffers in trending markets.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Forex Strategy Video: What Would Drive a GBPUSD, GBPJPY Reversal

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar May Soon Rally Sharply as Key Indicator Hits Extremes

"Retail forex trading crowds have never been more long the US Dollar versus the British Pound and other currency counterparts. We see material risk of a significant Dollar turnaround."

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

That was the assessment of quantitative strategist David Rodriguez upon the release of the latest weekly update of our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) today on DailyFX.com

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

As Rodriguez discusses in the following video, "Dollar reversal risk especially high in the GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CHF".

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar Coiling up for Big Move, but What are the Trades?

The US Dollar continues to coil up for its next move versus the Euro and other counterparts. But how might we trade it? In this video, DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez highlights the factors he's watching.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

Why Trade AUD/JPY over CAD/JPY, and USD/CHF over EUR/USD?

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar at Critical Point versus Euro, Kiwi. Big FX Moves Ahead

Today's Thursday, which means David Rodriguez's weekly update for the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) was just posted on DailyFX.com

Highlights:

• Retail forex traders have never been more long the US Dollar versus major counterparts
• A break in key price levels alongside sentiment extremes points to big FX moves
• Our focus remains on Dollar versus European pairs and the New Zealand Dollar

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

FX trading crowds have never been more long the US Dollar versus the Euro or New Zealand Dollar.

Trade Implications – EURUSD: The fact that crowds continue selling into Euro strength suggests the EURUSD may continue higher. Yet the chart below will show that traders are often their most short at the top; how do we trade?

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Two of our SSI-based trading strategies (Breakout2 and Momentum2) are currently giving signals to buy EUR/USD. Both signals are can be automated on your FXCM account via the Mirror Trader platform.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Scalping the EUR/USD: Breakout or Fakeout?

 

[Jason Rogers]

Does an RBNZ Hike Ensure a NZD/USD 0.8500 Breakout?

Talking points in this video:

• The market is fully pricing in expectations of a 25 bp rate hike from the RBNZ to 2.75%
• While the rate move is important, the trend is likely to be decided by forecasts for future hikes
• NZD/USD is wedged into a breakout pattern between 0.8500 and 0.8400 awaiting a spark
• The Breakout2 strategy on Mirror Tradercan be used to signal or confirm trade setups

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.