FX trading Oct 22-26

[shadowninja]

I was thinking about days like today when the market takes a dive... would I be right in saying these aren't the best conditions for newbies like myself? I was ultra cautious putting in a couple of hopeful punts. And punts is all they were.

 

[trendie]

it cant possibly go higher than the yellow zone can it?
yellow zone is area between recent lows, support, that should have become resistance.

2.0415 MUST be the high of the day, mustnt it?

 

[SavanteFX]

At the moment it has broken throught he 2.0415 and is at around 2.0430. My initial thoughts are to see if it will pull back to the 2.0400 mark and find support there. From my point of view, if the price can be held there it will make another prolonged move up to the 2.0500 mark. Is this a viable scenario?

 

[shadowninja]

Well, 50% of your idea has come to fruition...

ETA: and there's the other 50%! (Well, kinda. It's bashing its head against last week's high.)

56 points for me. Exited above a resistance line at 20470. I see it went up another 30. No probs. In retrospect, I should have zoomed out a bit then I'd have spotted last week's high.

Also sitting on about 40 points on EUR/USD but I want to hold this for next couple of days.

 

[SavanteFX]

I took a trade at 11:46am. [email protected], things are going well at the moment but i'm not greedy, i'll see if the momentum continues up now the price is close to 2.0500 and if it stagnates i'll take profits at the 2.0480 mark. Wise?

 

[shadowninja]

Yeah, defo. I see it has 20500 resistance, last week's high AND a resistance level based on yesterday's pivot. The Price Ninja has encountered Resistance Samurai guards at the gate to 20500 Heaven and it will be a struggle to get through... :cheesy:

ETA: I refer you to my signature, of course. The price may storm through to 20550.

 

[SavanteFX]

I'm out. Stop was hit @ 2.0480 giving me +64 pip profit incl. spread. Cheers for the responses. Where to now is the question?

 

[trendie]

I am knocking the Sup/Res on the head for the time being.
I went LONG GBPUSD this morning and then bailed out at 2.0425 for 70.
My MAs said carry on, but my fixation with Sup/Res cost me an early exit.

I am looking at too many things, sometimes contradictory.
Think I will stick to my trusty turquoise MAs.
Really feel bad about it. Honestly thought I had understood the essentials of Sup/Res.

 

[bbmac]

The 4hr chart since 1st october is attached. The range holds (for now.)

We are caught in a 4hr range with the intraday move strongly up, despite yesterdays bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart....now finding resistance at these 0495/05 offers/resistance. The last potential RBS zone is that 0451-0398 and that zone exists on 1hr/30min/15min/5min, so it is more likely than not that some support will exist there if tested. 23.6% of the move up to todays highs from mondays lows is at 0442 and Mni now talking about bids there at 0440/50 stronger at 0410/00. Potential Resistance to the upside exists at 0525/30 area 0550/60 ahead of course of the current yearly high at 0652 area.

5day average pip range stands at 160 with 10/20day averages at 139 now. 2 consecutive days trading above these average ranges now this week so far.

 

[SavanteFX]

So it seems as if the move is to prepare for a sell trade if the momentum of the price moves towards the downside, staying below 2.0500 and perhaps target a speculative price of 2.0325, news, trends, and indicators permitting.

 

[bbmac]

The first screenshot shows the last 2 real potential RBS zones on 5min. Notice how price gapped up for it's next leg up finding support above the first extreme of this zone (A) ie, the higher swing high, gapping again not even entering the 2nd Zone (B) extreme which is 0451, the higher swing high. The support at 0472 well above that last higher swing high at 0451 was in fact in the region of the 78.6% fib of mondays move down, and the band deviation and hidden divergence set-up is attached too. A new high resulted at 0505 as i type this.

 

[bbmac]

Certainly Resistsnace still in this 0495-10 area with 5min now making a classic reversal pattern/set-up see the screenshot. It's what i call a Reversal type C and with a breech of fib tunnels up to 15min and stochs in extreme o/b 90+ readings territory up to 1hr it was a good set-up at resistance.

 

[bbmac]

sorry screenshot referred to above is attached here

Remember though that this is a very bid intraday market and so reversal patterns may indicate only pullbacks.

The new 5/15min RBs zone potential looks like 0497-69, but the area below looks more ' substantial'

 

[shadowninja]

Where to now is the question?

Pub? :cheesy:

 

[SavanteFX]

Is that new trading related acronym i havent heard of? Yeah too much "Pub" results in an Elliott Wave like occurence...5 steps forward and 3 steps back!

 

[ampro]

So it seems as if the move is to prepare for a sell trade if the momentum of the price moves towards the downside, staying below 2.0500 and perhaps target a speculative price of 2.0325, news, trends, and indicators permitting.

Price hasn't indicated it's intent to change tack at all today. If you look at an intraday chart, price in fact hasn't shifted it's upside momentum since the move back up from the 2.0270 range support.

There's no need to get bullied or shaken out of your positions until price threatens the prior peak-trough levels & begins displaying counter lower high/lower low steps on the timeframe in which you're observing.

Using that example, instead of attempting a guesstimate around the 2.0500 level, the chart shows the prior peak at 2.0440-60 as the probable area in which you might have been sniffing out potential shorts?

By then price would no doubt have begun printing lower tops on a 5min frame, alerting you to a heads up.

 

[qsx]

Hi!
I think 3rd wave is completed. for tomorrow my trading plan is here:
if the assian session give’s wave A then B, after that when I’ll see the first wave in C, and after correction of the 1st subwave in C I’ll buy with stop higher than the start point of 1st in C.
the target gona be 162%-362% of the 1st wave in C.

 

[SavanteFX]

Why would you assume that forecasting a relative consolidation of price action at 2.0500 was a "guesstimate". That level has long been a psychological barrier to many an upward move as can be noted throughout the history of GBP/USD.

I feel that it may well stay at around that point for some time (too long for me) and thus I took profit rather than looking forward to an evening of nail biting as it congests around 2.0500. If it moves up, i'll look for the inevitable pullback and trade again.

 

[TheBramble]

Cable Analysis - Ahead of Wednesday October 24th 2007

Based on local and daily S&R I will be paying close attention to the Frankfurt and London ‘opens’ tomorrow morning. I’ll post up the inner and outer bands and levels as soon as they print.

Currently (20:00 BST) hovering around the 2.05 level, quite understandably. It was always going to be a magnet.

It has two options here (many actually, but the two hot options) – UP or DOWN. LOL.

It’ll take some momentum to get clear of 2.05 and if and when it does, there’s not an awful lot between it and 0547 initially and then onto 0655 where it could stop for thought, or a breather.

To the downside, there’s potential support at 0445 and (less likely to get this far) 0407.

I have a strong sense it’ll need a run at the 2.05 level and if it does need a run up, it can only do that by taking a step back.

I’ll take a short tomorrow morning before Frankfurt ‘open’ if it’s still at the current level. I don’t think it has got the legs to clear it overnight (I’ll come back an edit this if it does!) and I’m basing my short-term position (5 min chart) on it heading down to that first level of support at 445. I’ll exit the lot at 452 given the lower probability of 407 being reached. All minor to daily timeframes are up. Hence my short-term bullish stance. I’ll have my stop in at 514. (approx R:R 1:4).

If the Short stop gets hit I’ll proceed directly to my Long play which I plan on taking after the Short if that develops first.

Once I come out at 452 (or get stopped out before) I’ll hang out and see how the action develops. If, as I estimate as having the highest probability, there is a turn around at that level, I’ll wait until it clears the 0473 level heading North before taking my Long position, initially to 0547 (half off at 0540) and the rest riding up to 0655 (0648). I’ll set initial and update stops at the time, if the Long trade develops.

 

[tafita]

Good evening

Seeing as this thread contains some 'notables', I was wondering if you could help me out. I would like trade cable on a demo account along side my current trading. I have Tradestation 8.3 and have access to the all the major pairings/data. I there a platform demo account you could reccomend?

Thanks in advance peeps