FX Trading June 4 - June 8

[a_gnome]

I can't seem to find where this is. All the details I've seen on their website want funds deposited with them first.

It's well hidden:

https://www.tradestation.com/fees/subscription_op.shtm

 

[Offshore Trader]

Jilly,

Just because your system has had a few bad days doesn't mean it doesn't work. With any system you have to stick with it. However, having said that breakout systems have had such a poor run recently, after years of working, there is always the chance that the market is just different. As all those commission grabbing financial advisors say "past performance is no guarantee of future returns"

 

[JillyB]

Jilly,

Just because your system has had a few bad days doesn't mean it doesn't work. With any system you have to stick with it. However, having said that breakout systems have had such a poor run recently, after years of working, there is always the chance that the market is just different. As all those commission grabbing financial advisors say "past performance is no guarantee of future returns"

Having come back to look at the chart though, I'm wondering if it's not just 'operator error' as it would appear the high was formed at 19.00 on Friday- somehow I'd got it into my head that the high was formed after 20.00 (this would have made the trade a Sell - but before 20.00 would have been a Buy).

Looking back at the data I have though, it seems to be 50/50 as to whether the price being really close to the high at 22.00 triggers a buy or sell. I was working on the assumption that if the price was within 5% of the days range to the high then it would reverse and go down. Perhaps it is just this part of the system I need to evaluate more and get more data on. It may turn out that these are trading days when 'standing aside' is the best trade.

 

[trendie]

http://www.newscientisttech.com/cha...don-gekko-makes-way-for-trading-software.html

the June 2nd edition of New Scientist covers the changes in trading, especially the advances in algorithmic trading.
(full article by subscription, but I got the mag yesterday)

overview:
10 yrs ago, algo-trading was almost non-existent, but now 1/3 of all US trades are automated. by 2010, projections are for 50% automation.
Deutsche Bank in London automates 70% of its spot currency trades right now.

article goes on to explore the advances in algo-trading, as any advantage loses its edge as competitors catch up, necessitating (sp) the next advance.

some banks pay big money to have their (proximity) servers physically closer to the exchanges servers, so that the "electrons have less distance to travel" eek: ) and get faster execution.

mention is made of "stealth trading" using VWAP.
also, to keep an edge trades are made in small increments to prevent others finding out their intentions.
but, other algos monitor small incremental trades to seek out these very effects.

getting an edge (advantage compared to a tracker) is called "adding alpha". (I like that)
2/3 of professionally funds underperform an index tracker. (we knew that anyway)

one algo-writer origianlly used 8 parameters to make decisions; now he may use upto 60.

also, their is mention of "dark liquidity"; trades made off the exchanges. described as the equivalent of trading on eBay. maybe 15% of trading is like this.
(affects volume-analysis types?)

good article overall - pity we cant get new Scientist to post it in its entirety here.

 

[jacinto]

evening all,

have been away all day doing house stuff, no charts for me. seems like a good day to have traded....(hindsight doesnt count....). I dont seem to be able to read price at the moment and favouring staying flat

It seems like i have misplaced my mojo somewhere and I forgot where I left it

will give tomorrow a chance of price reading and no trading to see if the mojo comes back

j

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

http://www.newscientisttech.com/cha...don-gekko-makes-way-for-trading-software.html

the June 2nd edition of New Scientist covers the changes in trading, especially the advances in algorithmic trading.
(full article by subscription, but I got the mag yesterday)

overview:
10 yrs ago, algo-trading was almost non-existent, but now 1/3 of all US trades are automated. by 2010, projections are for 50% automation.
Deutsche Bank in London automates 70% of its spot currency trades right now.

article goes on to explore the advances in algo-trading, as any advantage loses its edge as competitors catch up, necessitating (sp) the next advance.

some banks pay big money to have their (proximity) servers physically closer to the exchanges servers, so that the "electrons have less distance to travel" eek: ) and get faster execution.

mention is made of "stealth trading" using VWAP.
also, to keep an edge trades are made in small increments to prevent others finding out their intentions.
but, other algos monitor small incremental trades to seek out these very effects.

getting an edge (advantage compared to a tracker) is called "adding alpha". (I like that)
2/3 of professionally funds underperform an index tracker. (we knew that anyway)

one algo-writer origianlly used 8 parameters to make decisions; now he may use upto 60.

also, their is mention of "dark liquidity"; trades made off the exchanges. described as the equivalent of trading on eBay. maybe 15% of trading is like this.
(affects volume-analysis types?)

good article overall - pity we cant get new Scientist to post it in its entirety here.

Very interesting. This would seem to back up the theory that a simple 'trading system' just won't work in the long term, even if it might when backtested.

 

[a_gnome]

Well there's been no opportunity to re-enter long so far for me. With more than 100 pips in profit I am trailing a stop on half my core position - I know it's not logical but I don't want to leave so much on the table. I'll still have a core position it's just that it will be smaller than before!

My trail got stopped out for around +100 pips. I now have my (ultra) core position still long and am still looking for long entries in the direction of the trend. I may go for an overnight trade a la Jilly if I see something suitable.

 

[atomm]

GBPUSD (Cable)

Just my short-term view : The Cable may rise to hit the 1.9965 level, or possibly beyond it in within 1 or 2 days.
I may be wrong though...

 

[oiltanker]

a cot report review. the cot actually comes out on a friday but i haven't worked out how to access the raw numbers yet. if you knew that cable longs had increased on friday then one might have been able to use that as a guide for monday?

cable increase in longs, euro flat, yen shorts dipping [amazing level of open interest shows the size of the carry trade?]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charti...mmitment_of_Traders_Report_1180982260651.html

 

[jacinto]

morning all,

for those that like to cry wolfe, one is setting up for shorts with entries between 9950 and 2.0000. not one i will be taking i'm affraid till there is much more confirmation. feel this one will most likely fail. targets are sub 9700

j

 

[Crap Buddist]

Just my short-term view : The Cable may rise to hit the 1.9965 level, or possibly beyond it in within 1 or 2 days.
I may be wrong though...

yeah I can see that on my charts. showing mildly bullish this Am at this time, longs from 1.9920, but any punch through 1.9911 would likely switch short term to shortside.

Currently long 1.9926.

if it does go through 1.9960 with strength ,hmm cant see why it wont go beyond $2 and even test the high 2.0133. I'd like that to happen today lol.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Bet JIlly B's method would of had her long 1.9910/15 is ? and delivered on the pip harvest today ? Maybe if not done , showing profit by 9.30 am cancel trade at market.

I mean if its holding for 10 hours and not going in the direction anticipated then fair chance the market want to send prices the other way ?

Maybe thats a rule that will help it ?

 

[trendie]

.....

Currently long 1.9926.

if it does go through 1.9960 with strength ,hmm cant see why it wont go beyond $2 and even test the high 2.0133. I'd like that to happen today lol.

good entry.
I missed the Long entry at 9921/5. think its gone too far for me for today.
on the sidelines till US open.

 

[Crap Buddist]

good entry.
I missed the Long entry at 9921/5. think its gone too far for me for today.
on the sidelines till US open.

might come back to 30/32 ish yet, its not gone mental out the top so far. sub 23 sustained ,likely get me looking to reverse.

 

[Crap Buddist]

+6 now short 1.9932, not much but got a squeeze point here. see what happens.

 

[Crap Buddist]

-7, no follow through on the short, now reading upside, how much ? gawd knows, long 1.9939. see entries 1.9930, but dare not hold out for that.

 

[zuke]

Morning all, no position on Cable yet, but looking to short in the 9975 area. Closed out my Dow short yesterday for +20 pips, but re-shorted at 13377, with a stop at 13407.

Good trading to all

 

[smbtnt]

Cable Fib Retrace

Morning all,

Can someone do me a favour please, my charts are down atm and I need a Fib calculation (61.8 and 78.6) for cable from the high approx 2.0130 to the Low 1.9660 i.e mid april to mid may, much appreciated.
Thanks.

 

[Crap Buddist]

fib, looks like 1.9957 and 2.0023 I think thats right ?

 

[smbtnt]

fib, looks like 1.9957 and 2.0023 I think thats right ?

Thanks CB, perfect!