FTSE100- June

Ink hardly dry and here comes the retest of the mornings high.

Volume not overwhelming yet
 

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KJH

Thank you for your reply relating to false break

I am not a volume specialist but I note that a large part of the dow rise on the 7/06 came at the end of the day on rising higher volume it will be interesting to see if that buying volume is carried over into the 8/06

iainpw

Missed the gap this morning but plenty more where that came from.

I am reading a book ' The Undeclared Secrets That Drive The Stockmarket' by Tom Williams. Which I have borrowed from the library

It is about volume, you may find it of use, I have

mully

Apologies for the chronic ivy puns, just my oddish sense of humour.

Regards

bracke
 
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heres the fib...and hooyas going short . I understand your point Iain. Though on the 5 min chart it closed a 5 min bar lower than the spike bar i.e a lower high and then the low of the lower high candle was broken at 499 which is a good entry if just trading off candles.
 
Slightly annoying that the test of the 62% Fib (4602-4363)=4510
and the potential for the wave 4363-4472 (109 points) (17/05-19/05)
will determine the move from 4401 +109 points= 4510 (03/06-)
is happening over lunch.
 

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Hooya & mully

4510 has arrived again but where now?

Hooya are you still in your short or have you got out or waiting for an 11th hour reprieve.

Regards

bracke
 
Bracke,

As I hinted, the test was not going to be clear cut.
Why, because volume would be low 'cause of lunchtime effect.
Volume did retreat as market sold off from 4510, and the retreat was modest (14 points ish) but

was that because of little selling or just "the lunchtime effect".

I wouldn't come to any firm conclusion quite yet.

There was a pick up in volume as market retested 4510 and pushed through (+ve?)

I am still watching how price and volume interact around this FIb level.

Have no opinion (lots of wishes!!!), but will just trade what I see.
 

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Bracke - what Hooya probably meant to say was he had just got his shorts on and was going to sit in the garden!!!

Iain
 
mully

fair comment. What does ( +ve?) mean?

iainpw

of course, my misunderstanding.

Regards

bracke
 
Bracke,

IMHO FTSE has not given a clear indication of whether it is going to respect the 4510 Fib.
The attempted break out came too late in the day to expect any real follow through.

On the other hand there has not been any obvious aggressive selling of the market from 4510 either.

The real message of to-day for me was the low overall volume.
 
Thank you for the explanation mully.

Watching the US. The dow has nearly returned to yesterdays high after Mr Greenspan words appeared to satisfy the market. If dow holds at this level a push to 10500 looks possible.

Would the ftse follow the dow or is the threat of interet rate rises enough to keep it in check.

A fall in the US today would likely provide a gap in the opening ftse and you know how I feel about those but would I take it ?

Regards

bracke
 
If the US goes nowhere and shows a Doji or is negative tonight then we should sell off tomorrow maybe even filling the gap down to 4465 on futures.
Market doesn't feel too strong around these levels and would need to form a base to advance further IMO but times like this when everyone feels to be waiting for a top are often not the time to be short
I am though as think we will see retracement over next few days
Splash
Interesting how Gilts have shrugged of Greenspans comments today
 
LOL Iain but not only did I have my shorts on I also put my shorts on and yes Bracke still holding. I seem to be taking bigger swing trades these days. Nothing has made me want to close. Expect at least a retracement here to 80s and then 54gap maybe but things might change?

Mully the break out looked like a 5th...looking at it on the 5 min chart it looks to have clear 5 wave pattern hence why the drop in the auction imo. I guess we will have to see what tomorrow brings.
 
To-day was the 4th consecutive up day. Total rise 82 points.

It is only the second time this year that we have had 4 consecutive days ending the same. The last time was 15/04 to 20/04 when the total increase was 84 points. Over the next 8 trading days it fell by 79 points

We have not had more than 4 consecutive up or down days this year but we have had 7 occasions when we had 3 up or down days together.

So what you may think. I just mention it thats all.

Regards

bracke
 
Morning all,

Crude oil futures at $37 is certainly a help for markets.

Asia markets: NIkkei -0.63%
 
Rising trendline and 1 day SMA still point to a positive bias.

Biggest problem remains volume/involvement/ committment of traders

Still have Hooya Fib at 4510 to resolve. Is it potential resistence?
 

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