FTSE100- June

[JeanM]

My reasoning today would be that the FTSE has more or less hit the bottom of its present trading range. The fall in the US futures were priced in at 4000. I took that as a buy as I would expect the Dow to bounce of 10220 or 10200. The futures have now moved up so we are too. Purely a personal point of view.

Jean

 

[Tubbs]

the study looks at the bias of the same day of the year solely - for example what the first trading day of february has done over the last 20 years. The cumulative effect of this gives the major turning points in the market over those 20 years. Have I lost ya?

 

[bracke]

JeanM

Agree with that, notwithstanding to the manner in which the US responds to the opec meeting and the non-farm payroll figures.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Tubbs

Not sure if you have lost me or not.

You are constructing a chart based on days of the year and change in index for each day
Your chart shows the changes in the flow of the index based on the above taken over several years.

What are the mathmatics used to determine the chart plots? Perhaps you could take one day for x number of years and show how you work out it's position on the chart

Remember its still charitable work!

Regards

bracke

 

[Tubbs]

Right - Take the 100 trading day of the year (note that it must be this way otherwise calender dates are used which is not wanted) and work out the % change from yesterday's close. E.g. -0.5% form yesterday's close. Average this value you have obtained for the last 20 years and find the averaged number. EG +1% for the 100 trading day. If tomorrow (TD101) is -2% and the next day (TD102) is -3% then over those three days the markets trend has changed. The curve is only really looking at the averaged trends over the 20 years - that gives the next few days a certain bias - it's no more complicated than that.

If you want an excel chart you can have it but it'll be big!

 

[Hooya]

the US is following a chart (think its 1929)...and its pretty spot on.

 

[bracke]

Tubbs

Thank you for you patience, the penny has dropped.

How does the data stack up against this year. Do you check day against each day or look at the overall trend?

How do you trade/intend to trade this data. On a daily basis or on monthly futures?

Which indices have you plotted - ftse only?

I will forgo the pleasure of the excel chart but if there are others who would like to see it please type up.

Hooya

Are you having us on, or am I missing something?

Would you care to post a copy of the relevant chart to illustrate your point

Regards

bracke

 

[Tubbs]

Maybe I'm being over sensitive but I think Hooya 's having a go at me.

Bracke - the thing is I don't know what to do with this because, as you've seen, it's not 100% reliable - I'm just trying to think of ways I can incorporate it into a method -that's why I call it a bias instead of what will definitely going to happen - I'm not that stupid.

I am getting more & more dispondant about this trading lark though - I was convinced there was some way to gain an advantage - I must say that I'm not quite so sure now. It is my absolute greatest hobby though and so I don't think I'll ever stop. But my thought's on beating the market can be plotted with peaks & troughs. -Maybe I should do some TA on those!

I have only done the ftse - because that's the only one I want to trade - but the DOW or S&P wouldn't take too long - I reckon the only true way to make more is to look at inconsistencies between the major indices - but then they are made up of supposed separate entities - know knows?

 

[DavidS]

DavidS

Welcome to the thread

As a beginner - I am lttle more than that myself - You have made a great start by finding this site, it can safe you a lot of heartache.

Why do you think 4435 by US open?

Regards

bracke

Thanks for the welcome

Looking at the last few days and the recent drop I figured a retracement part way back to 4460-70 resistance might be on the cards. Might still do it. The US open will take over in 3/4 hr so it will be interesting to see what happens then.

If this demo had a stop loss I would be moving it up right now!

 

[Hooya]

I am truely hurt you think I was pulling your leg heres a chart. Compare it to this year.

Charts is from Tom H.

 

[kevin546]

Hooya

Re your charts they show the support and resistance which still appear to be playing out. Of the 2 examples you show there is a 3rd option. From your 1st chart if the trendline is expanded it may suggest an area of resistance lower than your 2nd chart should the price fail at or close to the line. As if appearing to bounce off it. Of course should the price break above this line and retrace towards it then again it could produce support. However I prefer to use the broken trendline approach where the price in this case breaks the up trend or at least its rate of climb by falling through this trendline. The price then bounces and appears to be making its way up again only to fail on the extended line. Just food for thought.

 

[Tubbs]

Hooya, I am sorry - but there are so many flippant comments flying around forums nowadays that I always am quite to take offence. Interesting chart though - I guess the implications are that history repeats itself very closely - which I think I have to agree with - the only problem is if it got out the markets would be sunk - luckily not enough people would believe it. I hope this isn't the market for the next few months though as it's not great.

 

[bracke]

Tubbs

Don't get concerned about Hooya or any of us who have a little jab, its part and parcel of the thread humour and there is nothing nasty in it. EDIT apologies to Hooya he wasn't having a jab.

Some observations

1 nothing is 100% reliable, does it give you an advantage, will you gain more point than you lose.

2 if it is too unreliable don't use it. beware of getting hung up on something just because you have put a lot of time and effort into it. if it dosen't work walk away from it.

3 I suspect that most of us have been despondent about trading at one time or another. There are ways of gaining an advantage but each of us has to find his own way whether it be indicators, price movement, fibonacci etc, etc. If you read the threads on this site you will eventually come to a conclusion as to the method of trading that suits you. I have been visiting this site since dec 2003 and I am gradually coming to conclusions about what suits me but I still keep an open mind and am prepared to change or modify if I think there is a better way.

I note that you joined the site in Jan 2003 during that time you must have read a lot of posts and formed an idea of what appeals to you. Why not concentrate on one aspect and gain as much knowledge as you can about it. Make low stake trades and gain the experience of losing, thats where you learn most. Anayse why you lost and note it

I keep a book in which I note facts and ideas which appeal to me to serve as reminders of what to do and what not to do

I hope this may help, if there are others who have other ideas let's see them.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

DavidS

ftse at 4420 with 20 mins to US open. Suspect it will need a push from the US to take it to 4435

Regards

bracke

 

[Tubbs]

bracke - thanks for your encouragement - it's much appreciate. The problem is that I joined the site after already losing a substantial amount on trading. I then have read everything that is out there - including almost every book that you can find. There is such a wealth of knowledge in these resources that it has and will take a long time to get through it all - the problem is I find myself going in circles as to what is effective - even for most of the time - without a 100% success rate - but I really can't identify any one area in TA that has any consistency. There is no use in using something unless it is consistent - but where do you draw the line between consistent and not good

 

[kevin546]

bracke

Re submitting charts - does it matter what size the original screen-shot is saved as. Previously this site had problems with images that had been saved over a certain size.

Re ideas keep a journal of your trades to identify which aspects work best, you will gradually define your trading signal/s. Eventually the winners will look after themselves and you will need to keep a record of those trades that lost. This will help identify a pattern or style of trades and bad practises you are following and by identifying them you can learn to eradicate them one at a time. The aim is to let your winners run and keep your losers short. In the end you should develop a style of trading that can become boring as you repeated a process that you have tried and tested. The balance of probabilities being in your favour to win and your losers are no longer losers but the original risk you were prepared to accept when entering the deal.

A loss becomes that amount that is greater than your original stop, keep to your stop and you have traded according to your trading plan. Your winners should become greater than your stop on a number of occasions and providing your signal has a reasonable probability of success then by keeping to your stops you will grow as a trader and so will your account balance. But your trading plan must be well thought out and tested to produce a complete trading plan in all aspects of trading and in every respect to yourself to assist you when confronted by all that the market questions or demands of you.


Kevin

 

[DavidS]

DavidS

ftse at 4420 with 20 mins to US open. Suspect it will need a push from the US to take it to 4435

Regards

bracke

Mental stop loss at 4419

 

[bracke]

Tubbs

I also found this site after losing money.

I don't think that I can offer any futher thoughts other than to say that I don't expect to find 100% consistency or anything like it. I am still formulating my trading style but have gained more points than I have lost since finding this site and learning from it.

Maybe you are trying to hard, don't force it , observe, read and learn, eventually you will find your forte.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

kevin546

submitting charts: I don't know the answer to this. You could try different sizes and we could see the result. or you could ask ftse beater on first steps, he appears to be knowledeable about this type of thing.

Regards

bracke

 

[JeanM]

Tubbs


I think everyone goes through the stage of a complete overload of information and analysis paralysis. What I found helped was sitting watching in real time, day in day out, month in month out until you get a feel for the particular market you are trading. If you are using a spread better you also get a feel for the way they move their prices. I don't think there are any shortcuts.

Jean