FTSE 100 January

[bonsai]

yup

but you won't know that until it's too late.
because your B may turn out to be the start of completely
new rally. So once you have detected a complete ABC you have
to trade it in case it is a new rally. But as it progresses, you can usually tell because B's are phonies.

we have talked about B's before

 

[Hooya]

so either way one should be long at
the end of either the 5th or c. and
even if its going to be a B It might
be quite a good size because of the
size of A?

but worth being prepared as a big C is a money maker correct..?

see I do take some of it in

 

[bonsai]

remember this chart ?

after the ABC, how would you count the subsequent wave ?

 

[Hooya]

1,2

 

[bonsai]

assuming you haven't cheated

why ?

edit

ps: I think you will find it's 1 and then a of 2
but that's another discussion

 

[Hooya]

worth noting maybe:- a 5 wave A indicates a zigzag for B, a 3 wave A indicates a flat or
triangle for B

only indicates not definite

 

[Hooya]

purely because of the size of the ABC lol. but I know there is no way of knowing and as you say after an abc you have to assume
the correction is over.

edit:- I will leave that to the pros

 

[bonsai]

well if they ever tell you, be sure to let me know !

lol

 

[Hooya]

naturally

 

[Hooya]

they wont let the dow fill its gap although there might no be one as it looks like it ticked down at the open?

 

[bonsai]

seriously, the only difference I could detect at the time was that
the count looked right.

i.e it was not messy like a B wave usually is.

not much to go on ? that's why we need trend lines and stuff.

 

[bonsai]

the dow is interesting right now.

after the low what would you count ?

to me, it looks like an initial A and now a messy a/b with c in progress of B

so patience and you may get a C wave rally soon ?

?

on the other hand .......

 

[Hooya]

the B looks messy enough but A hard to count as its nearly a straight line....but impulsive though

 

[Hooya]

spx looks more corrective generally where as the dow looks corrective to the up move into yesterdays close

 

[mully]

Bonsai,

Did you see that Shell only lost 1p to-day [-0.3%], the best performing top 10 market cap stock. It may be worth still keeping an eye on it.

 

[Hooya]

looks like the spx was right

 

[bonsai]

isn't that just a classically ambiguous set of waves on the dow ?

the only thing going for it is that I have a higher low on my rsi
from 7pm onwards. but around 90+ up from a support area
can't be bad.

otherwise 134 down 42 back looks weak.

so to use hooya's favourite 'pop and drop' tomorrow ? and will support hold.

they may have a hard time defending 442+ tomorrow unless
the morning call looks good ?

bottom channel line is now around 4432 so any pull back which fails below that level must be given a real hard look.

 

[bonsai]

mully
ok
but ft relative still looks weak ? (but it may have bottomed for a while.
will keep an eye on it
thanks

 

[Hooya]

spotted the divergances on the rsi when the dow made a new low so waited a little bit and went long at 43 moved my stop up to evens when we were at 10470ish and you guessed it got stopped out....just.How unlcky was that

P>S Pivot tomorrow is 4429 so might be worth watching at the open

 

[barjon]

Whats happened whilst I've been occupied elsewhere then?

Well, well, there's interesting. Unless we see a quick dash back
and hold above 431 (which will only leave it uncertain until a new
high prints) my chart signals a change in intermediate trend to
down. Perhaps it's just a blip caused by those loose talking FED
boys across the pond, but I wouldn't bank on it.