FTSE 100 - February 2005

[bracke]

Good banter ahead of the weekend,
I trade both ways too, sad to hear about your Marconi trade, better luck next time...
Have a geat weekend everyone!

C Uall in a couple of weeks

Have a happy holiday, best avoid the papers.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

hi guys - been off piste for a bit. A trip to the Mumbles and some golf.

So how's it looking and how many adverts did you see in the papers over the weekend encouraging you to roll up and get your isas before it's too late now that ftse is over 5000?

Today wasn't much help - that makes 4 indecision candles on the trot, with a slight upside bias maybe. Still favouring longs and will need to see mid-point and then base (5000) bite the dust before even opening Bradley (isn't that a railway timetable).

good trading

jon

 

[FetteredChinos]

morning Barj,

hope you enjoyed your R&R..

yup, the ISA boys have gone into overdrive, but no-one actually quoting the 5,000. i thought you lot were overplaying its significance...

anyway, on the tube this morning i noticed that M&G are marketing a "Recovery Fund". which i find more than a little strange considering recent market conditions....especially as they quoted recent market performance where only 03 and 04 were profitable, and during the big bear run on 00-02 it actually lost money (though not as much as the market). whilst the latter isnt that uncommon, in fact more like commonplace, the fact they chose to include it on their marketing posters in font size 36 is a bit weird.

if i was the CEO i would be having words with the marketing chaps....

 

[barjon]

morning Barj,

hope you enjoyed your R&R..

yup, the ISA boys have gone into overdrive, but no-one actually quoting the 5,000. i thought you lot were overplaying its significance...

anyway, on the tube this morning i noticed that M&G are marketing a "Recovery Fund". which i find more than a little strange considering recent market conditions....especially as they quoted recent market performance where only 03 and 04 were profitable, and during the big bear run on 00-02 it actually lost money (though not as much as the market). whilst the latter isnt that uncommon, in fact more like commonplace, the fact they chose to include it on their marketing posters in font size 36 is a bit weird.

if i was the CEO i would be having words with the marketing chaps....

Mornin' FC

Saw a few linked to 5000 and quite a lot in the accompanying articles. Don't know about M&G but your own funds, F&C, made me chuckle with the headline "Bad News for Bears" given your latest stance - is there something you're not telling us

good trading

jon

 

[FetteredChinos]

- is there something you're not telling us

almost certainly..

well, my F&C fund, is consistent , to say the least..

consistently average to dull....


so have you been shaving tenths off your handicap then?

the most important question of the day is:-

are you a trolley man, or do you prefer to carry your clubs? :cheesy:

FC

 

[peterpr]

Hi there Jon and fc

Shorts looking a little less scary right now eh fc? (aka your 'here's another one' FOREX thread)

Update on my regression channels herewith. Both 60 and 90 min channel support convincingly breached for the first time since late January - AND their 50 period MA's which is probably more significant.

Just about at b/e myself but happy to hang in there because all my indicators say there's got to be another 50 points or so downside before trend resumption - maybe more.

 

[FetteredChinos]

peter.. just you wait for the down move on thursday/friday

yup, am pleased that the shorts are realigning..

only £2k underwater at the mo.

good job the dow daytrading is keeping me afloat lol...

nice charts though. looks like the regression channel has been breached convincingly.

incidentally. on what basis do you draw the upper and lower lines?

 

[barjon]

FC

Been hitting my buffer, can't seem to string two decent halves together. Either have a bad first nine then play catch up, or a blinding first nine then the wheels come off. As you'd expect I'm on the fence - carry in the winter (can't stand manoeuvering the trolley round all the roped off areas) but trolley in the summer.

Bit of south for you this morning, but it's looking a bit climactic now and maybe north beckons (for a bit anyway)?

good trading

jon

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup, until wednesday i reckon. then the downside really begins..

ah, so you are a trolley man.

im disappointed in you.. golf isnt the same unless your bag strap breaks halfway round and you have to carry it looking like a complete eejit..

 

[peterpr]

peter.. just you wait for the down move on thursday/friday
incidentally. on what basis do you draw the upper and lower lines?

2 Standard deviations. The mid-line is calculated on a 'High-Low-Flip' basis using all the bars between the start and the yellow vertcal line. That means that bar lows are used when the trend is down and Highs when trend is up - trend defined as o/c up or down bar. Frankly it does not make a geat deal of difference visually using all of the calc methods available.

This one's been a long wait already - Think I can hang in there for a few more yet.

 

[barjon]

mornin' peter

mmm, that stuttering came around the mid-point I mentioned. Looking for a reason to go long now.

good trading

jon

 

[peterpr]

mornin' peter
mmm, that stuttering came around the mid-point I mentioned. Looking for a reason to go long now.
jon

Jon

From a pure technical perspective I just can't see a reason to cover yet. On the daily chart I posted - in addition to the RSI which is currently pointing down at 65 from an opening at a still near record value of 75+, I am watching a DiNapoli stochastic; a standard MACD and an ATR - Plus the usual S/R etc. Present trade has turned into an extended swing by my standards so I am looking ahead about a week or so.

The Stochastic gave a sell signal Thursday and looks just perfect for more downside right now, both lines pointing down but the slow still above 70; MACD gave a sell this morning - slow about flat, and still near record high for past few years - again classic; ATR hooked up this am but still at only 33

I'm sticking with it for now.

 

[FetteredChinos]

if i wasnt trying to trade to my plan, i would fancy covering about here (5020) and wait for a bounce back up to 5060 by thursday morning, and then the big drop...

 

[jonnyy40]

We've had lovely smooth markets for a while now so I don't mind what happens, if we can retain that I'm happy

 

[peterpr]

Looks like a FTSE gap down of about 30+ points at tomorrow's opening.

Question is will we get any bounce before more downside? My view is that either or both the 50DMA (currently 4971) and Channel centre line (4960) will be tested before any worthwhile upturn so I'm still hanging in there.

The sell-off in the US has tarnished the bull case somewhat as well. It was pretty spectacular (174 points - 1.6%with the VIX jumping over 17%! Dollar down another 1.4%) Gold up another 1.8%. There's something pretty serious going on here and I wouldn't be surprised to see it snowball.

 

[User]

The sell-off in the US has tarnished the bull case somewhat as well. It was pretty spectacular (174 points - 1.6%with the VIX jumping over 17%! Dollar down another 1.4%) Gold up another 1.8%. There's something pretty serious going on here and I wouldn't be surprised to see it snowball.

I wouldn't be surprised either...

Good daily chart posted earliar on other thread. Nice one...

 

[peterpr]

Seems to be getting support from the 50DMA (Blue) but Stoch, MACD and RSI all say there's more downside before any meaningful bounce.

I think we will see a visit to my regression mid-line at the very least (that's about 4965 by tomorrow). Maybe the 40DMA (Orange - currently 4900) or even the lower boundary (currently 4850). If the downside momentum slows a bit to that of the previous corrections in this uptrend, then my best guess is for a bounce off about 4930 by Friday or early next week.

Still short - targeting 4950 to exit (for now )

BTW - catch the new sig tagline - it tickled my fancy

 

[bracke]

Time for all you bears to emerge growling and throw your snowballs (very topical peterpr) at the bulls.

I can't remember what your individual trades were but are you all in profit, closed out or have greater expectations ? Bulls are awaiting their postal orders (remember Billy Bunter).

Retrace or Reversal - answers complete with appropriate charts and comments welcome.

Cripes chaps its tea time !

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

mmm, been hunting a long all day and just snuck out for b/e. Glad you beary boys have got smiles on your faces. Looking weak and both my first line defences have gone. Post chart later.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Good calls beary boys, it's looking weak (even more so if you squeeze the candles to 2 days) and unless we get a quick bounce and hold above 5000 there looks like more to come.

DOW closed a bit higher so may see some early enthusiasm to at least test 5000 first thing. But will it clamber above again and hold? If not, will it drop below today's low - if it does it likely won't stop there. It'll depend on US futures probably.

Looks like a day on the sidelines for me (but you never know) while you beary boys cast fond glances at your shorts.

good trading

jon