FTSE 100 - February 2005

[jonnyy40]

He may have pruned back his bet size?

 

[jonnyy40]

I've no idea really,He seemed to vanish from the face of the Earth.Happily I'm not so needy anymore.

 

[barjon]

Can't you just FEEL it striving for 5000 ???

I'm now looking at RSI's of 80 on both daily and hourly charts; 76 on 30 min and 71 on 15 min (That's calculated on the highs of the latest bars.

Looks like a pretty low risk short for a 60 point target drop with a 20 point stop over a couple of days to me (From 4982 that is)

Maybe, maybe not. Certainly there was very high volume today towards the end so a lot of supply (that must be you and fc) being thrown at the exuberant bulls.

 

[bracke]

Does the panel think that a reasonable rise on the dow or S&P to-day will take the ftse over 5000 on opening tomorrow ?

Regards

bracke

 

[FetteredChinos]

douze points is the vote from the Fraggle Rock jury.


i think the Dow is looking like a "sell day" today.. prices kept near friday's high..

so could well be a short sell day tmr, possibility of a gap down on the Dow. which would suggest a fairly negative day on the FTSE.

just my 100 roubles.

 

[peterpr]

peter.. just a thought..
would it be better to base short decisions on RSI of the Lows, and long ones on RSI of the highs?
FC

I've had a look at all of them H,L,C,(H+L)/2, (H+L+C)/3,(O+H+L+C)/4 (Bloody amazing things these computers aren't they :-0 ?)

All much of a muchness really. It's just that, in trying to call a short-term top, the high extremities seem to be logically the most significant. I'm pretty careful to have a good look backwards before reading too much into any of them though.

I don't think RSI is the B all and end all of TA for reversals either. It's just that it has worked quite well for me recently.

 

[barjon]

Does the panel think that a reasonable rise on the dow or S&P to-day will take the ftse over 5000 on opening tomorrow ?

Regards

bracke

Maybe, maybe not (at least I'm consistent). It's pretty near and as long as the DOW plays ball I reckon it's almost a certainty that'll it will get pushed through for the marketing clout.

I can just see the headlines now and the marketing departments rubbing their hands at the free advertising as they set about their "invest before the end of the tax year" campaigns. The timing is almost perfect.

good trading

jon

 

[bracke]

When I mentioned to-days opening gap early, I should also have pointed out the opening gap l from Friday which is also unfilled. ftse would have to drop to approx 4900 to fill both. See chart below.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

Does the panel think that a reasonable rise on the dow or S&P to-day will take the ftse over 5000 on opening tomorrow ?
bracke

Here's a couple of DOW charts.

The best (95.6%) recent extended trend I could find is on the left of chart1 from the low of March 2003 to 23 April 04.

Drawing another 2 std Dev channel from the low of Oct last year, the best I can get is 75.8%. So onto the hourly chart - from the 28 Jan low to friday's close produces a 93.5% channel and right now the price is testing its upper boundary again after nudging it all the way up. Looks to me like a retrace is in the offing.

OOPs - duplicated previous ftse chart - here's the right one

 

[FetteredChinos]

i think the Dow is looking like a "sell day" today.. prices kept near friday's high..

so could well be a short sell day tmr, possibility of a gap down on the Dow. which would suggest a fairly negative day on the FTSE.

just my 100 roubles.

going according to plan thus far?? Dow behaved itself into the close..

now will we see a gap down on it, and a FTSE sell off beforehand?

FC

 

[barjon]

talking yourself into it FC? I still reckon if they want to sell those funds cracking 5000 and holding it there for a bit will help!

 

[FetteredChinos]

nah.... i have a feeling that might come nearer march april..

im only looking for a pullback to 4800-ish...

then the ISA money should push us back up to the 5000 mark before april 6th..


all of this , is entirely fortune-cookie based speculation.

FC

 

[peterpr]

Still facinating stuff on the ftse.

Another higher daily close just 5 points or so from the magic 5000 but an RSI sitting at a multi-year record high! - pretty much flattened out at todays close though. Price hard against the top of the August trend channel - a break would mean accelerating an already high momentun trend. Not impossible but odds favour a pull-back

You can sense everyone and his dog just KNOWS it will break the 5K barrier which is likely to make it self-fulfilling - except that when 'everyone' expects - well you know!!! - The big question is when ??

For my money there's been just too much striving by the bulls over the past couple of weeks and they will probably need a respite before having another crack at it to make the break convincing.

Still short from 4984 yesterday for yet another a rule-breaking against-the-trend trade. Will I every learn??

 

[FetteredChinos]

trading with the trend is so over-rated

 

[barjon]

.......but profitable

 

[FetteredChinos]

says who?


depends more on exit than entry...

 

[FetteredChinos]

looks like we have broken the up-channel on the 10 minute chart over the last 5 days..

is this the start of the retrace to 4900 and perhaps below?

 

[bracke]

Still short from 4984 yesterday for yet another a rule-breaking against-the-trend trade. Will I every learn??[/QUOTE]

peterpr

What is your stoploss set at ? If you are successful with the trade, no you will not learn. A good chunk of loss might bring you to your senses but I do not wish that on you....... the loss not the senses.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

peterpr
What is your stoploss set at ? If you are successful with the trade, no you will not learn. A good chunk of loss might bring you to your senses but I do not wish that on you....... the loss not the senses.
bracke

Originally 4998 and looking for a 30 or so point limit to exit. But I chickened out and exited this morning at 4978.

We are still due a significant retracement with the price tracking the upper boundaries of my channels on all timeframes and the daily RSI at a record high for the past 7 years. BUT that 5000 level is a watershed and just tooooo close. We'll get a big spike up when it is breached - no matter how temporary - before the trend continues (for a while )

 

[FetteredChinos]

there goes 5000..


hang out all the flags and bunting you can find.. we're saved


looks like im adding to my short at the close tonight