Forexyard Analysis

[forexyard]

Silver Volatility on the Way?

- Below is the 4-hour chart and daily chart for Silver by ForexYard.

- The indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, MACD, Slow Stochastic and RSI.

- On the 4-hour chart it is clear that the Bollinger Bands are beginning to tighten. This signals that a volatile movement is impending.

- Point 1: The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish cross, signaling that the move may be in an upward direction.

- Point 2: The RSI on the Daily Chart signals that the price of this pair currently sits near the bottom border, suggesting upward pressure.

- Point 3: The Slow Stochastic on the Daily Chart indicates a fresh bullish cross, which signals that an upward movement is going to occur in the nearest future.

- If the impending breach is indeed upward, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

- With a Standard Account with ForexYard, traders can earn $10 per pip movement by trading Silver.

4-Hour Chart - Silver

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Boosts Dollar

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and a string of other positive U.S. data boosted the Dollar yesterday. This marks a turnaround for the U.S., as there is increasing optimism that the current recession will be over sooner than later. Now may be a good time for forex traders to enter the market as investors continue to profit from yesterday's bullish Dollar.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Traders Anticipate Heavy News this Week in Forex

After depreciating consistently over the past month, the USD is now traded over 1.39 against the EUR, and over 1.64 against the GBP. This week on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver an Interest Rates statement, and is widely expected to leave it on 0.25%. However, any change that might take place is prone to sow disorder in the market, and forex traders should be ready for it.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Weekly Predictions - Forex Events this Week - Volatility Ahead?

After depreciating consistently over the past month, the USD is now traded just under 1.39 against the EUR, and over 1.64 against the GBP. This week on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver an Interest Rate statement that is widely expected to leave it near 0%. But any change that might take place is prone to sow disorder in the market, and forex traders should be ready for it.

The encouraging homes sales and manufacturing figures from the U.S. last Thursday helped boost confidence in the USD against the EUR. However, the bearish equity markets drove the USD lower last Friday. Additionally, the EUR/USD pair was trading as high as 1.4000 on Friday, but now trades at the 1.3860 level.

As the U.S. economy leads the world in rising out of recession, the Euro-Zone isn't so far behind. Nevertheless, they have a banking system in need of radical U.S-style reforms which has been one of the main reasons for the unstable EUR in last week's trading. This came about in response to the European Central Bank's (ECB) warning that banks in the Euro-Zone may face up to $300 billion of losses by the end of 2010.

When looking ahead to this week, we can say that there is plenty of economic data that will affect the major pairs. This includes US housing data, the Federal Open Market Committee's rate statement alongside the Federal Funds Rate decision, the German Ifo Business Climate report and a variety of manufacturing data from the Euro-Zone's primary economies. Additionally, the world's leading reserve currency, the USD, may go bullish if the equity market continues to fall rapidly, due to traders possibly flocking to the USD as a safe-haven.

Also in the market this week is a slew of data from Japan which may push the JPY into an intense volatile trading session in the days ahead. As Japan's economy is expected to rise out of the recession faster than many analysts anticipated, we have seen some renewed strength in the JPY, especially versus the USD. The USD/JPY rate was as high as 97.76 at the end of last week, and is currently trading slightly lower at 96.00.

Japan and China's recent economic improvement may also be one reason why top U.S. banks, such as Goldman Sachs, have upgraded their forecasts for future Crude Oil prices. They are now beginning to anticipate the price of black gold hitting $85 a barrel by year's end. For this week, this may mean that prices will stabilize as the primary currency pairs, and Crude Oil, find their true price range. But stability is easily shaken in the forex market and we may be in for a bumpy ride while we await further market confidence.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - World Bank Forecast Returns Traders to Safe-Havens

The US Dollar has made some solid gains this week following news from the World Bank (WB) that economic forecasts for growth in 2009 are showing a 2.9% contraction, as opposed to the previous forecasts of 1.7%. As political turmoil in Iran and the show-down with North Korea continue, investors have felt a slight drop in confidence in markets lately and pulled their investments back into safe-havens such as the USD and JPY, which explains their sudden rise in value yesterday. This move back to less risky investments appears to be continuing today.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Currencies Report - Nok Under Weight Of Declining Oil Prices

Norway appears to be an active market player for the forex world lately. With a recent discovery of a sizeable oil well in the northern Norwegian Sea, the price of the black gold remains a serious factor for the NOK. As the USD gains strength from recent risk aversion, the price of Crude Oil has entered a slump which has weighed heavily on Norway's economy, but the discovery will no doubt help future development and growth for their market share.

Also adversely affecting the NOK's value is the recent decrease in Norway's interest rates to 1.25%, a move which was expected by most market analysts, but carries the expectant impact of weakening the currency that was needed to help boost exports.

In Sweden, the Riksbank announced on June 10th that it will borrow up to 3 billion EUR to shore up its financial backing. This comes as no surprise since many banks are still under threat of losing substantial capital from the prospect of Latvia devaluing its currency, the Lat, due to the recent crisis in the Baltic States.

Since many of Sweden's banks receive the bulk of their funding in foreign currencies, the banks will need to sufficiently back up their foreign reserves. This EUR-borrowing operation is intended to assist in this backing, but works as a way of devaluing the SEK, which many forex traders can now see quite clearly.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - US Federal Funds Rate to Drive the Market Today

The market is expected to be very volatile today, as the U.S. announces the Federal Funds Rate at 18:15 GMT, which specifies U.S. Interest rates. The other factor that which is set to affect both the USD and Crude Oil is the publication of the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 GMT. In order for traders to start making profits today, it is recommended that they open their USD and Crude Oil positions as the trading day gets under way.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - U.S Unemployment Claims on Tap

The Dollar began a strong rally during yesterday's session, which dropped the EUR/USD pair as low as the 1.3900 level. Today, The U.S Unemployment Claims appears to be capable of shifting the momentum into the opposite directions as analysts forecast negative figures.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Ben Bernanke Speech to Continue Dominating USD Volatility Today

The Dollar is set to continue its volatility today, as the market continues to act on yesterday's critical speech of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Additionally, traders will continue intensive Dollar trading, as they take into account that U.S. Interest Rates will stay at 0.25%, lower than most industrialized nations. Furthermore, a bullish stock market today could be an additional factor that may add to the forex market's volatility, and possibly push down the USD.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Overview - U.S Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment on Tap

Trading will end this week as a slue of economic data due to be released today will provide ample opportunities for traders to enter the market on higher than normal volatility. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at 18:00 GMT later today will add to this expected volatility.

13:55 GMT: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
• This indicator reflects the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
• This report has produced optimistic results for the previous 3 reports and is forecast to continue the positive results.
• If optimism in the U.S rises, we will likely see a stronger rebound in the USD.
• If optimism falls, we could see the EUR’s recent rally gain momentum.

Tips on Crude Oil
• Oil prices rose sharply to above $70 a barrel yesterday.
• Crude Oil rose Due to a rally on Wall Street, fueled by optimism that the economic recession was easing.
• If the USD continues to weaken, $75 a barrel seems like a very realistic target for next week.

 

[forexyard]

Crude Oil Forecast - July 2009

Our Monthly Predictions

Gold
Gold prices ended slightly higher on Friday; marking their first weekly gain in 4 days as a weaker U.S. dollar and record low Interest Rates boost the metal’s investment appeal. Analysts said that the precious metal has been trading modestly higher as the U.S dollar lost ground after the Fed announced it would keep Rates low. Gold prices inched above $945 an ounce in afternoon trading, and the metal is set to end the week up about 1% higher.

The price of Gold has largely moved in a broad range between $920 and $940 this week, as the combination of the resurgent Dollar and easing inflation worries put a damper on bullion’s rise. However, Gold is still vulnerable to short term profit-taking and may look to consolidate in the $910 to $950 area before pushing towards $1000 again.

For next week, Gold should see less liquidity and more short-term volatility because of thinner volume related to the U.S. Independence Day and Canada Day holidays. In addition, traders said that Gold’s upside may be tested as sentiment has improved, with the Dollar losing its upward momentum and commodities rising, while there are still some fears that inflation will continue.

Crude Oil
Crude Oil prices extended gains above $70 a barrel on Friday, after jumping 2.3% the previous day on renewed rebel attacks against oil facilities in Nigeria and worries that a glitch at the largest U.S. oil refinery could tighten gasoline stockpiles. However, analysts said the latest Oil price increase to over $70 a barrel is not justified by current fundamentals and the underlying demand in the market still remains week.

Weak demand was shown in a report released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. The EIA said total implied demand for petroleum products over the last 4 week period was down by 6.6% compared with the similar period last year.

Given the lack of any evidence of an economic recovery in the petroleum data, Crude prices may decline next week as low as $67 a barrel, according to analysts. The market is still responding to financial flows, they said, and fundamentals continue to be weak with no sign of strength ahead.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Dollar Rises on Reserve Currency Debate

After falling broadly late last week, the U.S dollar regained some ground on Monday as the market is watching cautiously to see if China will keep making comments on the reserve currency. China's central bank did not mention the Dollar by name on Friday but said it was a serious defect in the international monetary system that one currency should dominate.

Debate about an alternative international currency has heated up in recent months and central bankers gathering in Basel this weekend also discussed the dollar's role. Still, the dollar will keep its role as reserve currency, as China is unlikely to change the composition of its foreign currency reserves any time soon. That's dollar positive analysts said.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Rally in Equities Pushes Investors to Riskier Assets

An extremely bullish day for the equity markets pushed investors back to riskier assets and away from the safe haven USD and JPY, causing them to plummet against their riskier counterparts. The rally in equities along with a weak Dollar has also helped push Oil prices above $73 for the first time in over a week. Today's numerous economic data releases from the U.S, Euro-Zone and Japan promise another volatile trading day and will help determine if the current trends will continue throughout the week.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Weekly Predictions - Will the Dollar Experience an Up-Trend this Week?

The dollar index started Monday with a slight uptrend, trading at 79.958 up from 79.830 on Friday. The Dollar was help by renewed concerns over the global recovery. Still, uncertainty regarding market conditions, as well as the direction of the Dollar, is likely to continue dominating this week as well; with the USD trading in a narrow range with its major currency counterparts.

However, high volatility is expected on Wednesday and Thursday as there are several major news releases ahead of the July 4th weekend. Thursday is expected to be particularly interesting with the release of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy statement at the same time as the U.S. June payrolls report. The employment data are the most closely watched reports that guide market expectations regarding U.S economic recovery, while diminishing green shoots in the Euro-Zone put great focus on Central Bank policy.

With last week’s mild statement from the FOMC failing to give the market a clear direction, uncertainty is still the driving force in trading. Better than expected economic data from the U.S no longer automatically pushes investors to riskier currencies; therefore, positive economic data from the US might actually be beneficial for the Dollar. It will be important to follow the ECB statement, as any direction the Dollar might take based on the news will be intensified by the statement.

 

[forexyard]

Positive Economic Outlook Results in Yen Sell-Off

The Yen started the week with a downtrend against most of its major currency counterparts as optimism returned to investors. The drop was exacerbated by increased bullishness in world equity markets. Since Japan’s interest rate is extremely low, investment in Japanese assets provide very low rates of return, pushing Japanese investors to buy higher-yielding assets overseas and financing them with the Yen, causing the value of the currency to drop.

Further pressure on the Yen comes from mostly positive economic data released from Japan. It appears that the Japanese economy will be among the first to recover from the financial crisis which further increases investor’s risk appetite and reduces the appeal of the safe-haven JPY.

Japanese industrial production data, the Tankan Manufacturing Index and the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index are set to be released Tuesday at 23:50 GMT. Although the results are expected to be slightly less positive than previously predicted, they are still expected to show an improvement in the economic conditions, likely continuing the JPY’s recent trend.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - ADP Employment Data to Drive the Majors Today

The surprise drop in consumer confidence in the United States yesterday has resulted in a sudden buy-up in USD as investors flock to safe-havens. With a market that appears to be lacking a clear direction recently, major reports such as the CB Consumer Confidence report yesterday, and today's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report become that much more important to watch as more investors await their release before trading.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Overview - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change to Rock Today’s Market!

Wednesdays typically act as the day with the most trading volume and volatility, and with events such as the US’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report being released just prior to the US market open, we will no doubt see a very intense trading session for all USD pairs and crosses, as well as dollar-based commodities (Gold, Crude Oil, Silver). The technical charts for the USD this morning are showing a lot of pressure mounting towards volatile price jumps, which will likely occur just after the ADP’s release at 12:15 GMT.

12:15 GMT – USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- This report shows the estimated change in the number of employed people in the US in all job sectors except the farming industry.

- It acts as a forecast for Thursday’s Non-Farm Employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

- If this report shows that employment is on the rise, or simply shrinking less than forecast, the USD may see weakness as investors pull out of safe-havens and buy riskier assets

- If the report shows employment dropping more than expected, the USD may go on a strong bullish rally.

14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories
- Measures the change in the number of barrels of oil held by commercial firms in the US

- This number has dropped by surprising amounts recently, leading to a rally in Crude Oil prices.

- If this decline continues, we could see more support for Crude Oil, with a target price around $76 a barrel

Gold Tips:
- As of yesterday, Gold’s flat range-trading pattern was finally broken by a sharp downward movement.

- Gold now floats in a new price range between $922 and $930.

- If this range is broken on either side, we could see some intense volatility as the breach will push prices to extremes.

 

[forexyard]

Dollar Soars as its Global Reserve Currency Status Returns to the Forefront

The Dollar soared yesterday against most of its currency pairs, as its global reserve currency status returned to the forefront. This was due to weak U.S. unemployment figures, as Unemployment in the U.S. rose far higher than analysts had forecast. This spurred demand for safe-haven currencies, such as the USD and JPY. As a result of the strong USD, Crude Oil prices also tumbled. Today, investors should continue trading the USD, EUR, JPY, and Gold, as large profits will be made on market volatility.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[subashs]

Hi there,

I am trading on currencies and indices such as Wall street 30, DJ Euro 50, Nikkei, DAX and CAC etc. Where can i find likeminded poeple who are trading spreads and get an idea of the way they are shorting or going long on positions etc?? any help

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - G8 Meeting to Spur Forex Market Volatility

At the beginning of this week, the forex market appears flatter than usual. Most currencies have leveled off and there appears to be quite a few consolidation trends on the technical charts. No doubt this pressure is building up towards this week's G8 meeting in which the world's financial leaders will discuss economic recovery plans. The participants typically reveal the summit's main talking points to reporters throughout the various meetings which start this Wednesday in L'Aquila, Italy, and the impacts vary depending on the statements.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center