Forexyard Analysis

[forexyard]

Positive ZEW Economic Expectation Boost the EUR

The EUR experienced a bullish day of trading yesterday, mainly due to the German ZEW Economic Expectation figures. The ZEW indicator jumped to 31.1 in May from 13.0 in April, above economist estimates of a 20.0 reading. This suggests that analysts and investors were not as grim about the economy as before. In other words, the improvement in this consumer sentiment signals that the worries about a further aggravation of the economic recession may be limited by the end of the year. The reading is now firmly in positive territory, which indicates that optimists far outnumber pessimists.

Since the release of this important figure earlier yesterday the EUR has climbed against the USD. The EUR/USD rate rose by almost 100 pips and continued during today’s trading session as trader confidence returned back to the EUR. The question now is can EUR bullishness continue versus the Dollar? A strong EUR may continue in the coming days, if the European economy releases better-than-expected economic figures. If this does occur, the confidence of investors may continue to return back to the EUR in the short-term.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Prices Hit Highs Unseen since 2008

With recent market volatility, the price level for a few currencies and commodities have begun to see prices not seen since last year. For instance, the price of the EUR/USD pair has now risen to a level not seen since the first week of January, 2009. Crude Oil has also shocked the market lately with a continuous uptrend, rising above $62 for the first time since last November. With rallies this large, the forex market becomes more predictable, and traders can reap the benefits!

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Dollar Volatility Set to Impact Forex Market Today

The USD's volatility is set to continue today as forex trader's eye Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech as 6 GMT. In the meantime, however, it would be a wise move for investors to open some important positions as they can take advantage of the forex market prior to and after this main news event. Key economic data releases from the leading economies should also be a vital inspiration for traders today.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

Forex Market Trends

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - USD-Negative Market Reversal Due this Week?

Many forex traders witnessing the strong bearish trends across the USD pairs and crosses have been wondering when it will come to an end. As last week's U.S. housing market data and unemployment figures proved worse than forecast, mixed with a boom in confidence for Euro-Zone economies such as Germany, the USD went negative. However, this week's data forecasts could create the rumblings of a reversal for the greenback. This exciting volatility is where money is made in the forex world; don't miss out!

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Can German Ifo Data Reverse EUR Trends?

Traders witnessed one of the first vital pieces of information from the Euro-Zone which actually put a dent in the plans of the EUR. The German Ifo Business Climate report failed to meet expectations and slightly lowered investor confidence in the 16-nation currency. As a result, traders may indeed see a reversal in the making for the EUR/USD unless today's news puts a halt to the correction. Sticking close to the calendar today and betting on news releases would be a wise move for the weary trader today as the movements of the forex market are not yet stabilized.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

USD and CAD Forecast

This weekly forecast was contributed by Ashley Smith, a senior member of ForexYard’s dealing room.

USD
The US Dollar is in retreat. The past week has seen the Dollar slide to its lowest level this year against most major currencies. The Dollar Index has lost about 3.6% this week, trading at 80.045 Friday, down from 80.554 late Thursday. This trend is likely to continue next week as well. Short term sentiment is going against the dollar as investors who hoarded the Dollar during the financial crisis are now pulling out of the Dollar and going after riskier currencies and commodities as more and more evidence suggest the global economic recession is easing.

While the world economic state is enjoying an optimistic outlook, the U.S is experiencing a wave of negative news concerning the expected rise in federal debt issuance raising inflation concerns and therefore putting negative pressure on the Dollar. Fed’s recent statements also prompted concerns that the U.S might lose its triple-A rating which again is contributing to the downward pressure on the USD.

CAD
Commodity based currencies such as the Canadian dollar are experiencing a big boost recently. The Canadian dollar has recovered nearly half the value it lost following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September. The Canadian dollar ended Friday at $0.8933 and is expected to strengthen further. The Canadian dollar is drawing most of its strength from the recent rise in Oil prices; as Crude Oil prices climb and investors go after the currencies most likely to benefit from a recovery in global economic growth, while turning away from the USD.

Conclusion
The short term expectation is for the Dollar to continue its downward trend. With a busy news week this coming week it seems that any upcoming news from the US will be negative for the currency. Positive news will push investors even further into riskier assets and away from the Dollar. While pessimistic news are also likely to have a negative affect on the Dollar since they will imply that the U.S. is in worse than expected shape, prompting concerns of an expanding budget deficit and inflation concerns over the Federal Reserve’s ever growing balance sheet. Canada on the other hand is likely to continue seeing its currency gain strength as the shift to riskier assets continues, in particular currencies of big commodities exporters that would benefit most from global growth.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - USD Regains Value Against the Majors

The U.S Consumer Confidence report which was released yesterday, gave a surprisingly positive result, suggesting that the public is retaining its faith in the North-American economy. In today's trading, traders should pay special attention to the Existing Home Sales indicator scheduled for 14:00 GMT, as another positive figure could further strengthen the USD.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

AUD – Private Capital Expenditure

The Private Capital Expenditure data release is expected to be released this coming Thursday at 1.30 am GMT.. The release is published every quarter, and about 60 days after the quarter ends. It is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and measures the alteration in the overall inflation-amended value (real value) of new capital investments produced by private businesses. The data release is important for traders, as it is a top indicator of Australia’s economic health. Additionally, a change in the investment levels for businesses is usually a sign for future economic movement, including earning, spending and hiring.

The Australian Dollar has gained much pace against the USD lately. However, the Dollar has been increasingly bullish against the majors today, as the AUD/USD rate currently stands 35 pips lower at 0.7836. The AUD/JPY is currently trading lower by 50 pips at 74.63. However, the AUD/NZD is trading 30 pips higher at 1.2664. This behavior against the NZD may be due to good economic data from New Zealand as of late, resulting in traders putting their money in higher yielding assets. The trend against the JPY today may be due to a short-term bearish correction, as the pair went increasingly bullish in the past week.

Better than expected Private Expenditure results are likely to lead to a bullish AUD, going into end of week trading. However, equal to or worse than expected results may lead to a bearish AUD. Forecasts are quite pessimistic for the Private Capital Expenditure figures at -5.5%. However, there is a reasonable possibility that the results will beat the forecasts as they did in the previous quarter. In the meantime, why not take advantage of the forex market now, and open a Live Account with ForexYard?

 

[TheBramble]

Another case of rose-tinted spectacles perhaps?

Of the two reports out yesterday, you focus on the positive one. And that’s a very American thing to do (I genuinely admire that particular trait as those of you who know me personally will understand why LOL). And it was far more positive than expected. Great.

But the other report, Housing Prices was rather dire. A 19% decline YoY for the first quarter. Home Sales due out today (in a few minutes) will be equally bad I suspect, but to imagine this one ray of sunshine yesterday will comfort the global markets is optimism at its best.

 

[Trader333]

Of the two reports out yesterday, you focus on the positive one. And that’s a very American thing to do

True, however I think he is from Cyprus.


Paul

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Positive Economic Data from the U.S. Pushes Up Dollar and Oil

The U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil experienced much bullishness in yesterday's trading. The Dollar reacted positively to decent existing Home Sales data and Timothy Geithner's optimistic speech regarding the U.S. economy. This helped the Dollar record a correction against most of its major currency pairs. Crude Oil also reacted positively to the news, helping the "black gold" extend its bullish run.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forex yard's Daily Forex Tips - 28 May

Today’s daily tips were provided by Anton Eljwizat, a senior member of ForexYard’s dealing room.

28 May 2009

12:00 GMT: U.S Unemployment Claims

• The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
• This release is expected to be better than their previous figures.
• Meaning the USD could continue to show further bullishness today.
• If the results turn out to be lower than forecasts, then the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading.

10:00 GMT: GBP CBI Realized Sales

• The survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
• This is an excellent gauge of current economic conditions and the overall economic situation.

More daily tips at our forex trading education blog

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - High Volatility might Continue this Week

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

A Quick Look at Gold Prices

This article was written by Ashley Smith, a senior member of the dealing staff at ForexYard.

Gold for immediate delivery was at $955.70 early Monday. It advanced to $961.33 May 22, the highest since March 20. Gold for June delivery in New York was down 0.3 percent at $956.10 Friday. The recent increase in Gold prices is mainly driven by a weak Dollar and a retreating stock market.

Gold is expected to continue its upward trend as a weakening dollar prompted interest in the precious metal as a replacement haven investment to the U.S Dollar. Gold typically presents an opposite trend to the Dollar.

There are rising concerns the global recovery is going to be bumpy. The main risks come from fears of a rising inflation and the flooding of the financial system with Dollars; both brought up by the recent news regarding Federal Reserve’s intention to purchase more Dollar denominated assets in order to secure a stronger economic recovery. This statement has also affected the stock markets as it suggests a deeper recession that previously perceived, causing the markets to retreat and increasing Gold’s upward momentum as well.

While the current trend of appreciation for the Gold is likely to continue in the short term, there is a sentiment that the recent bullish trend is somewhat exaggerated and once the equity markets start showing little more gain the bullish trend will dampen.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - A Global Stock Market Rally Leads Trading

Strong economic data from the U.S, U.K and China combined with strong equity performances has led to a sell-off of the safe haven currencies and pushed investors to higher yielding, riskier currencies as many see the global recession coming to an end. The encouraging global economic data has also been helping push Crude Oil to the $70 price level.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Scandinavian Currency Analysis 6.02.09

From our forex trading education premium content:

The Swedish Krona rose against the EUR and Dollar these past few days after positive statements by the Swedish Finance minister regarding Sweden’s ability to handle any economic difficulties in the Baltic region. Swedish banks have about $75 billion in loans to the Baltic States. The fate of the Krona and the prospect of devaluation in the Baltics are still very much in focus. Currency devaluation in the Baltic States will require Sweden to borrow Swedish Krona to bolster its foreign currency reserves and therefore devaluing the currency.
Norway’s Krone surged against the dollar as crude oil traded at the highest price in almost six months. Norway’s Krone strengthened as the price of oil traded near the $70 per barrel price level, the most since November 5. Crude oil is the country’s biggest export.
Scandinavian currencies, particularly the Norwegian Krone, are likely to continue their upward trend as news of economic recovery from the U.S and Asia spark demand for commodities and higher-yielding, riskier currencies.

USD/NOK Technical Analysis

• Below are the 1-hour, 4-hour and Daily charts for the USD/NOK currency pair.
• The 1 hour chart’s Parabolic SAR, indicated by the green dots on the charts, are signaling that Buy positions are favorable at the moment for the short-term positions.
• The bullish cross on the daily charts’ Slow Stochastic signals a strong upward movement may occur today.
• The 4 hour chart’s RSI is floating in an oversold territory also supporting the notion of an upward movement.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - U.S Economy Awaits ADP Non Farm Employment Figures

The Dollar continued its freefall against all the major currencies despite positive housing data figures from yesterday. Today, at 12:15 GMT, Forex traders will have the ability to enjoy hefty volatility in the market as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released.

ForexYard also advises its traders to follow the Crude Oil Inventories report, which is scheduled at 14:30 GMT. The rising prices of Crude Oil have become a top issue in financial sectors as of late, and the U.S inventories report should have a large effect on its pricing.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Tips - 03 June

Daily tips from our forex trading education blog

03 June 2009

12:15 GMT: ADP Non Farm Employment

• Monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry.
• This release tends to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further.
• The release of the survey typically creates a volatile trading environment, affecting not only the USD pairs but also the value of Crude Oil and Gold.
• Very positive result will push the dollar up.
• This indicator is a “preview” for the Non-farm Payrolls report expected on Friday, and is considered to be quite reliable.

14:00 GMT: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

• Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to testify before the House Budget Committee, in Washington DC.
• He’s expected to refer to the federal budget and to discuss current financial conditions, and thus his speech is likely to affect the Dollar as well.
• It is likely to set the pace of the Dollar going into the rest of the week’s trading.

Crude Oil

• Oil prices have risen every day since May 21 on snips of moderately good news.
• As for today, crude oil inventory release is likely to help determine the market’s next direction.
• A release of a string of positive economic figures could continue its bullishness.
• Traders are advised now to make some profits as the price of Crude Oil is set to remain volatile in the short-medium term.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Tomorrow's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to Dictate USD Direction

The Dollar gained considerably ground in yesterday's trading, whilst the price of Crude Oil plummeted. The question today is can this pattern be extended into end-of-week trading? The answer to this question will be determined by a number of factors, such as the U.S. Unemployment Claims release at 13:30 GMT, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at 12:45 GMT, and investors weighing in on the possible results of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data release tomorrow.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Tips - 04 June

From our forex trading education blog

•Although some analysts speculate that ECB might cut its Interest Rate today, the chances that the ECB reduction will indeed take place are quite small.
•If the ECB cuts its Interest Rates, the immediate reaction for such announcements is usually a massive depreciation of the EUR.
•However, overall impact of the Interest Rate reduction may in fact strengthen the European currency in the longer run.
•Traders should focus their attention on this release, as it is expected to be the highlight of the week for European markets.

12:00 GMT - U.S Unemployment Claims

•This indicator reflects the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
•This release is expected to print better results than the previous one, meaning the USD could continue to show further bullishness during the day.
•On the other hand, if the results turn out to be lower than the forecast, the Dollar may in fact record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading.

Crude Oil

•Crude Oil dropped yesterday by 3.5% to $66.12 per barrel, pulling back after the US government data showed an unexpected increase in Crude Oil Inventories last week.
•Overall, in recent weeks Oil has surged primarily on weakening USD and not on actual demand.